Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 271321
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
821 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning still depicts the drier air in place at
low levels. Winds are light from the northeast at the surface
under a temperature inversion in the first 800 feet. Winds then
switch to westerly throughout the rest of the profile. Showers
and storms should again be confined to coastal areas and offshore
waters today. Low level moisture will begin to return further
inland later tonight.

Krautmann

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

SHORT TERM...
No appreciable change in thinking from previous fcasts. Moisture
and higher dp temps will move back over the area starting tonight.
The pattern mostly looks to mirror a normal summer regime through
this week with basically hit and miss sh/ts each day with a
diurnal fluctuation in development. The highest chances of sh/ts
should be Wednesday and Thursday as a deep tropical moisture
surge moves in from the southwest late in the day Wednesday. This
occurs in response to the upper trough over the northeast
sharpening and gently digging to the southwest over east Texas
forcing this deep moisture to the northeast ahead of the upper
synoptic trough, which is the reason this scenario is synoptically
viable.

AVIATION...

Most terminals should remain VFR with generally light and variable
winds and little in the way of cloud cover. The one holdout is KHUM,
where light rain has been falling. In addition, no observations have
been received for the last five or six hours. Therefore, AMD NOT
SKED has been sent with the 06Z TAF issuance.

MARINE...

Front continues to be stalled just south of the Louisiana coastline.
High pressure will continue to slowly build to the east-southeast
and the current offshore east-northeasterly winds will slowly begin
to veer around to easterly by tomorrow. Winds will continue to veer
around with onshore flow returning late Tuesday night and more so
Wednesday. Persistent southeast fetch across the Gulf will dominate
throughout the rest of the week.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring Hydro/Convective trends

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  68  87  70 /  10   0  40  20
BTR  86  70  87  72 /  20  10  50  30
ASD  87  71  86  72 /  10  10  50  40
MSY  84  73  84  73 /  20  10  50  40
GPT  86  74  85  73 /  10  10  40  40
PQL  89  71  87  72 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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