National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLIX 112142
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE LIMITED WARM UP. HIGHS
HAVE RANGED FROM LOWER 50S UNDER THE DECK TO AROUND 60 IN THE
SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS BREAKING
DOWN AS ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING THIS. A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL SINK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE WEAK...WITH ONLY 5-10 KT NORTH
WINDS BEHIND IT. NO RAIN WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS THERE WILL NOT BE
ANY RETURN FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUITE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CHANGES ON THE WAY AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL HAVE BEEN SITUATED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL LIFT OUT
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THROUGH THIS TIME...A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE PICKED UP AND ABSORBED BY THE NEXT TROUGH
THAT WILL DIP DOWN OUT OF CANADA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE RISING ON
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD
BEGIN DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT MOST SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE AREA IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM BATON
ROUGE AND NW. RAIN CHANCES WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LA AND MS. ATTM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE CWA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
COAST...SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL BE FINISHING UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
RETURN BETWEEN 700-800 MB TOMORROW MORNING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR FL080 FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. 35

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE EASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI
SOUND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
WITH FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE...WILL DROP HEADLINES COMPLETELY OVER
THE TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND...AND LOWER ADVISORY TO
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. MIGHT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
LOWER OVER BRETON AND CHANDELEUR SOUNDS...BUT WOULD PREFER TO HOLD
ON TO ADVISORY THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY AS COLD AIR GETS REINFORCED BY NEW SURFACE HIGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. ADVISORIES AGAIN LIKELY AT THAT POINT.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FRONTAL TIMING BASED ON SOLUTIONS
SIMILAR TO OR SLOWER THAN GFS. 35

&&


.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  52  30  60 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  33  54  33  63 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  35  57  33  64 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  40  56  42  66 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  35  57  34  63 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  34  57  30  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS
     TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS
     TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$