Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVEMENT
AND GENERALLY SMALLER STORMS NOT GOING TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN. HOWEVER... STORMS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWN BURSTS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THAT THREAT. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF A
SLIDELL TO NEW ORLEANS LINE ALTHOUGH MAJORITY WILL BE OFFSHORE.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WEST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE 4-
CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES FROM MAKING IT TO HEAT ADVISORY VALUES. ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE TROUGH TO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL
LOWER CWA RAIN CHANCES.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A BROAD SURFACE LOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS INTO
IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO NOCTURNAL
JET BRINGING SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT TOMORROW CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
GREATER COVERAGE AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH          VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY                  TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE
RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  10
BTR  76  95  76  94 /  20  40  30  40
ASD  77  94  78  90 /  40  50  40  50
MSY  79  91  81  90 /  30  50  50  50
GPT  78  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  50
PQL  77  91  77  87 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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