Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 270503
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS ARE GOING TO CONTINGENT ON DEVELOPMENTS WITH SQUALL
LINE ADVANCING OUT OF NE TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND INTERACTING WITH GULF
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF SQUALL. INDICATING TEMPO
GROUPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 17Z-21Z THAT MAY NEED TEMPORAL
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGEAS
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GOING
FORECAST. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THROUGH GENERAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

ONE WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING
COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS...BUT ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT TO SEE AN
ELEVATED INVERSION FORM OVER THE AREA.  AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS AROUND 09Z.  DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL LIFT THE CEILINGS BACK INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 14Z.

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH THE WORK WEEK.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE
FIELD BECOMES LESS DEFINED AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  70  86  69 /  60  20  40  20
BTR  83  72  87  71 /  60  10  30  30
ASD  83  73  85  72 /  80  20  40  30
MSY  84  74  86  74 /  70  10  30  20
GPT  82  74  84  74 / 100  30  50  30
PQL  82  73  84  71 / 100  40  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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