Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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803
FXUS64 KLIX 101824
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.22 INCHES. A RATHER SHARP SURFACE
BASED INVERSION TO 440 FT AT 39F...ISOTHERMAL TO 1600
FT...ADIABATIC TO 3KFT...DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO 8700 FT...THEN
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO 11.4KFT THEN STEEP LAPSE RATES TO FIRST
TROPOPAUSE AT 239 MB/10.8KFT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -56.7C...THEN
ISOTHERMAL TO SECOND TROPOPAUSE AT 110 MB/15.7KFT WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -67.3C. WINDS ARE N 15 KT NEAR THE SURFACE THEN NW
35 TO 95 KT REST OF THE WAY UP. PEAK WIND 265/93KT AT 40.0KFT.

BALLOON BURST ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...100 MILES
DOWNRANGE OF STATION...AT AN ALTITUDE OF 21.5 MILES. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...NOTHING REALLY TO SPEAK OF OVERNIGHT...IT WAS
ANOTHER QUIET COOL NIGHT. SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR. IN FACT SKIES
LOOKED CLEAR ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN HALF OF THE AL/GA BORDER
OTHERWISE CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND SRN GULF.

NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FCST. ONE MORE SHOT OF COOL AIR
IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE AREA IN THE MID 50S. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ALLOWING
SWRLY LL FLOW THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND LL TEMPS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY.
H925 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM 2-4C TODAY TO 12-13C FOR THU AND FRI.
THIS MODERATION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND THUS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT THE WAA AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOWS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THU MORNING
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS THU AND FRI WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S BOTH DAYS. WITH
LL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOWS FRI MORNING WILL BE
ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THERE ARE
SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. ALL MDLS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
A TOUCH COMPARED TO THE PREV EVNG. ECMWF IS STILL THE FASTER OF THE
MDLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND APPROACH WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCE ON MON.

FIRST THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
SAT. AS PREV FCSTER MENTIONED A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SE IN THE MAIN
FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATE LATE FRI AND IT WILL
DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SAT. LL TEMPS
WILL DROP ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SAT AFTN EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS THE
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE VERY LOW
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING.

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK HITTING AIRMASS AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN. MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS QUICKLY MODERATING. IN
ADDITION THE MID LVLS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TEMPORARILY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO MOISTEN UP WITH PWS FINALLY CLIMBING ABV 1" BY
MON. WITH THAT VALENTINES DAY LOOKS UNEVENTFUL FROM A WEATHER
STANDPOINT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME CLOUDS. HEADING INTO MON
A STRONGER S/W EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL WORK ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY WITH A WEAK SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...LOWERING
HGHTS DUE TO THE S/W...AND A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO OUR
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN IN ABOUT 2 WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW THERE COULD BE SOME TSRA EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN. IF THE
SFC LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ON THE OTHER
HAND IF THE SFC LOW MOVES RIGHT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THEN
IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE AREA SEEING JUST A COOL RAIN. THAT SAID
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE WILL MOVE BACK UNDER DRY NW FLOW.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
ORIGINATING FROM CANADA LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN SO
WE WILL NOT QUIET THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /TE/

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY AND ALL FLAGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF CAUTION STATEMENTS. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK
TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BY THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER MAINLY OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE WEEKEND AND COULD CAUSE ANOTHER
EPISODE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. /TE/


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.
             MONITORING MARINE ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  40  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  57  42  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  54  43  70  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  54  47  72  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  44  68  53 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  53  41  68  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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