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000
FXUS64 KLIX 132052
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
252 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL OCCUR EARLY ON
AS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TRAVERSES THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A POSITIVELY TILTED
MEAN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...MOVING INTO AND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH FOG TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...AS DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ADVECT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER NEAR GULF COASTAL WATERS AND THE
TIDAL LAKES. THE FOG SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A PROBLEM AS RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DISPERSES IT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. 11

.LONG TERM...
A QUIET PERIOD WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INITIALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW BACKS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO AND DIG OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KBTR. VISIBILITY IS
6 MILES OR MORE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA CEILINGS
WILL LOWER 1500 TO 2500 FEET AND VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3
MILES IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. THIS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AT KBTR AROUND 03Z AND SPREAD EAST TO KMCB... KHDC.. KMSY...
KHUM...KNEW...KASD BY 05Z AND TO KGPT BY 12Z. MK

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN SHIFT
NORTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE OPEN COASTAL
WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND LARGE TIDAL
LAKES. WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS STRONGER POST
FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW AND LONGER FETCH TAKES HOLD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 4 TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MK

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  69  36  51 / 100  60  20  10
BTR  57  69  40  54 /  90  60  20  10
ASD  56  72  41  55 /  70  70  20  10
MSY  60  73  45  54 /  60  70  30  10
GPT  56  73  44  56 /  50  70  30  10
PQL  55  74  44  56 /  40  70  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$