Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 072100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK...PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD...AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEVADA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH KLRX RADAR REVEALING NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING AND
DISORGANIZED CELLS. OBVIOUSLY, CAPE AND MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A CERTAINTY. LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN INTO THE EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED.
WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYE COUNTY
UNTIL 9 PM AS INHERITED. 12Z NAM SUGGESTS STRONGEST STORMS AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO AN AREA BOUNDED BY ELKO-
CHERRY CREEK- EUREKA THIS EVENING. WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO
MONITOR THIS. SHEAR IS WEAK AND ESSENTIALLY ZERO, SO INDIVIDUAL
CELLS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT LAST LONG.

TONIGHT...ALL MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVERNIGHT. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENCOURAGE
THIS ACTIVITY, AND NAM REMAINS GENEROUS WITH NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY, WITH LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS -3 AND CAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. CERTAINLY ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDER ALL NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CLOSED 573 DM UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, QUITE
UNUSUAL FOR JULY, WILL BEGIN TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD
NEVADA. MODELS AGREE PLACING THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR SAN JOSE
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY EVENING. DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT, WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS
NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY. ALIGNED THE GRIDS CLOSEST TO THE 12Z NAM
MODEL, INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA, AND DROPPING THEM GREATLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. NAM
CONTINUES TO PUSH A STRONG DRY SLOT SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50
THROUGH 5 PM, WITH PW FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.25 INCH NEAR TONOPAH.
AT THE SAME TIME, EXCELLENT MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR, WITH PW NEAR ONE INCH OR GREATER. THIS
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY (THE NEVADA DRYLINE) WILL FOCUS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR, WITH
BACKGROUND ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT/INCREASING SHEAR HELPING TO
ORGANIZE CELLS. DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH AND ONE INCH HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE HIGHEST
FLOODING THREAT ACROSS LANDER, EUREKA AND ELKO COUNTIES. HELD OFF
ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES, BUT WILL ADVISE
TONIGHT`S SHIFT TO CONSIDER.

WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED MILD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS. HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW,
AND CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. CLOSED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES IN
WESTERN NEVADA BY 5 PM, ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT ARRIVES.
DYNAMIC LIFT AND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA ON
THURSDAY, FAVORING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA, CLOSEST
TO THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
STRONG MOIST/DRY INTERFACE THURSDAY, WITH THE DRY LINE NEAR BATTLE
MOUNTAIN AT 5 PM. MOISTURE DISPARITY IS NOTABLE, WITH PW AT
WINNEMUCCA NEAR 1 INCH AT 5 PM, AND ONLY 0.50 INCH AT ELKO.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL CWA. TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
FRIDAY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY
NORTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES. BY SUNDAY MOST
OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH NORTHWESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY DUE TO LINGERING TROUGH ENERGY OVER AND NEAR
SOUTHERN OREGON. MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVE UP INTO
NORTHEASTERN NYE AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE UP FROM SOUTHERN NV/UT.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND KICKS OFF ANOTHER WARMING TREND
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP MONDAY THEY WOULD BE
EXPECTED OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...GENERALLY EASTERN WHITE PINE AND
POSSIBLE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTIES. AT
THIS TIME INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREAS...HOWEVER KEPT THEM BELOW 15
PERCENT WHICH IS THE TRIGGER FOR ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST. IF THE SLIGHT NORTHERLY SURGE OF MOISTURE VERIFIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MAY ALSO SEE A WESTERLY AND NORTHERLY EXPANSION OF
STORMS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH FOR NOW KEPT TUESDAYS POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT AS MODELS ARE JUST NOT IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LINGERS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
INTO THIS EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. -SHRA
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONGER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE TYPICAL PEAK HEATING HOURS OF NOON-6 PM, BUT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. ALL STORMS
MAY PRODUCE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING STRIKES, WITH SMALL FIRE STARTS
LIKELY. THE RISK OF SPREAD REMAINS LOW. ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO
50 MPH. MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA,
FWZ 457 AND SOUTHERN FWZ 455, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE, STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND TREND TOWARD DRY/HYBRID. EXPECT SOME
STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY,
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FWZ ON THURSDAY.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/96/96/99



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