Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 280935
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA CAN EXPECT A HOT AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND A GUSTY SOUTHWEST
AFTERNOON BREEZE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS NEVADA TODAY, AS STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH THICKNESS AND 700 MB TEMPS
INCREASING ABOUT 2C. AS SUCH, ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ON TAP, WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS MANY VALLEYS. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SW WINDS
PICKING UP NOTICEABLY TO 15-25 MPH.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH PW CLIMBING BACK TO THE
0.75-0.95 INCH RANGE, AND NAM FORECASTS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
ELKO, EUREKA, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WITH LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS
-3C. EXPANDED/INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THESE ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IN LINE WITH NAM`S QPF DEPICTIONS.
HRRR SOLUTION ALSO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MILDER AND BREEZY. STRONG VORT MAX MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO NEVADA ABOUT 5 AM SATURDAY, CRUISING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST. STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS, NEAR 30 KTS, RANGING UP TO 50 KTS
ACROSS NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY, WITH STRONG GUSTS LIKELY ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. MIXING
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MILD, IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...WINDY. 00Z GFS PLACES THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE
SEASON ALONG A JARBIDGE-ELKO-AUSTIN LINE BY 5 PM. FGEN FORCING
WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT, SO EXPANDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MORE OF NORTHERN NEVADA. STRONG GUSTY
SW WINDS WILL OCCUR BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
AVERAGING 20-30 MPH. GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WILL OCCUR, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING THOSE PREFRONTAL ACROSS WHITE PINE
COUNTY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUSPECT WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN SUMMERTIME
MOS OUTPUT SUGGESTS. ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TO THE GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BAT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OF
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
COLD FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED TO THE UPPER FLOW AND STATIONARY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL WHITE PINE COUNTY INTO NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. BOTH
MODELS SUPPORT A SERIES OF VORT MAXIMA LIFTING ALONG THE FLOW ALOFT
AND INTERACTING WITH SAID STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WHERE
LI`S LOWER DOWN TO MINUS TWO. WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER PORTION OF
ELKO...WHITE PINE AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTIES THIS TIME-FRAME.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/.

MONDAY...SOME MINOR SUPPORT RIDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE CLOUDS OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL
NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...HELD OFF ON POPS AS DRIER
AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON /MAINLY IN THE 80S/.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE GREAT BASIN IN A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS MID
LEVEL /H5 HEIGHTS/ GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE`VE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. THIS
SUPPORTS THE CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
89

&&

.AVIATION...ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
KEKO AND KELY TERMINALS AFTER 19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY, AS A STRONG TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EDGES CLOSER TO NEVADA. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15-25 MPH FOR MOST FWZ THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE LIMITED TO FWZ 457, SE FWZ 454,
AND WESTERN FWZ 455. ACROSS THESE FWZ WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST, DRY AIR APPEARS MARGINAL, WITH MIN RH JUST FLIRTING
WITH 15%. WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE TODAY, A RED FLAG
WARNING DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, WITH PW CLIMBING BACK TO 0.75 TO
LOCALLY ONE INCH. INSTABILITY ACROSS ELKO, EUREKA AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION, AND EXPANDED
LAL 3-4 ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
QUALITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME INTO THIS EVENING, SO DRY
LIGHTNING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

SATURDAY...SEASON`S FIRST COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A
JARBIDGE-ELKO-AUSTIN LINE BY 5 PM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS, AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR
40 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457, WHERE GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY.
DRY AIR APPEARS MARGINAL AGAIN, WITH MIN RH JUST FLIRTING WITH
15%. THIS MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING, BUT FIRE DANGER WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/89/89/99



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