Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 170904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 AM PDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime highs will warm back into the 80s and 90s
across the Silver State. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible south of the Highway 50 corridor Thursday, spreading
northward to southern Elko County and central lander and Eureka
Counties by Friday. The possibility of showers and thunderstorms
will continue to increase for northern Nevada by the weekend and
into early next week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Confidence in the overall
pattern remains high, but Thursday and Friday does present a few
minor issues with regards to lingering moisture across the higher
terrain of central Nevada.

Thursday - Weak exiting storm system and lingering moisture will
provide an environment for isolated convection across the higher
terrain along and south of Highway 50. Coverage will be sparse,
but just enough moisture, lift, and instability for aftn
convection. The HRRR has been consistent with this solution, with
additional support from the SHREF and GFS. This will quickly
diminish after sunset.

Friday - More of the same, but signals from the models indicate a
better chance and slightly more coverage to the north. In fact,
isolated storm chances will exist for southern end of Ruby Mtns
and central Lander/Eureka Counties. White Pine and S/SE Elko
county will also see a chance for aftn convection. No concerns
for severe weather, as storms should be of garden variety. Gusty
winds, lightning, and brief light/mod rain would be the primary
threats. Any convection will quickly diminish with loss of daytime

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Thursday. A slow transition
from west to southwesterly flow aloft will signal a pattern
change for the Great Basin over the weekend. Models indicate a
closed low developing west of CA Sunday and Monday. Southwest to
south flow ahead of the low will allow deeper monsoon moisture to
return to the Great Basin region early next week. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected first across northern Nye and White
Pine counties Saturday along the monsoon moisture surge before
progressing northward Sunday into Monday across northern Nevada.
A larger Pacific Northwest trough is progged to push deeper
moisture eastward with GFS and ECMWF confining convection along
the NV/UT border Wednesday, possibly into Thursday depending on
eastward advancement of the trough in the Pacific Northwest.

Hottest temperatures will occur Saturday and will rise into the
lower to mid 90s. Temperatures moderate early next week with
rising relative humidity and cloud cover expected to suppress
temperatures slightly. High temperatures for much of next week
starting Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows
generally in the 50s approaching 60.

Winds will remain rather benign before south to southwest winds
increase appreciably Tuesday and Wednesday across central NV as
influence of Pacific Northwest trough becomes more apparent.


.AVIATION...VFR expected at all TAF sites through next 24 hrs.
KTPH could see afternoon VCTS or an isolated chance of TS
impacting the terminal. There is still a slight chance for VCTS at
KELY but most of the afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop south of KELY. Gusty, erratic winds from and
brief reductions to MVFR are possible if TS impacts the terminals.


.FIRE WEATHER...Decided to introduce isolated dry thunderstorms
for locations along and south of Highway 50. Lingering moisture
associated with a weak weather system exiting the state could
spark a few thunderstorms. PWAT values are 0.5 to 0.6", so any
storms would likely be dry, however coverage will limit any
concern for critical fire weather concerns.

On Friday, moisture will expand a little further north. Isolated
showers/storms possible across the higher terrain in central NV,
with isolated dry thunderstorms possible in the valleys and along
the northern fringes of the moisture.

Into the weekend and early next week, coverage expands as moisture
is pulled northward into northern and central NV. This will need
to be watched closely as storms across northern Nevada could
initially be dry or hybrid. Chances for convection may linger
into the middle portion of next week.





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