Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 200935
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO
COUNTY WHERE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE...LI OF NEAR -2 AND
STRONGEST CAPES. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT ROTATES TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROF ON THURSDAY. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN UTAH. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF WHITE PINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL SIGNATURE. THE RMOP IS IN
NEGATIVE TERRITORY BY F144...BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLEARLY HAVE
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. OVER THE LKN CWA THE
NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS RANGES FROM +1.0 TO +1.8...SUGGESTING
BOTH UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDED VCTS TO ELY...EKO...AND WMC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASING RH`S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

87/97/87




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