Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 200915
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
215 AM PDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will bring rain and snow showers to
much of northern Nevada today. After a chilly start Saturday,
high pressure will bring improving conditions over the weekend.
Most of next week will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. A fast-moving cold front will
bring a mix of valley rain and snow today, along with several
inches of snow above 6000 feet. Clear skies across central Nevada
this morning, a diminishing band of clouds passing over Elko
County, and a thickening cloud structure moving in to western
Nevada. Main precipitation core is still back over
California...heavy rain in spots...but is beginning to pick up
steam and the leading edge of the precipitation band is making its
way through northern Washoe County. Wind gusts have exceeded
60kts on several occasions this morning at the Reno Airport.
Temperatures are generally running in the 40s as of 1 am however
Elko Airport has dipped into the 30s. much of the LKN CWFA this
morning.

Today through this evening. A low pressure trough will pass
through the Silver State. The models are still showing this system
to be a quick hitter however on each model run there is more of
southerly extent of the precipitation trajectory and the system
gets colder. Snow levels are modeled lower, and model QPF
indicates up to 4 inches of snow possible at the 6000 feet level,
essentially the valley floors of where the QPF is
focused...northern Elko County. Daytime passage of the front will
help alleviate travel concerns as the highway temperature will be
above freezing. At this juncture, precipitation chances will be
highest north of Interstate 80 with an emphasis on northern Elko
County and Humboldt County however precipitation is expected to
reach south of highway 50. Snow levels will drop to near 5500 feet
across northern Nevada late this afternoon as the precipitation
tapers off. Interstate 80 through the Pequops and Silver Zone Pass
could be a travel concern late in the day as the front moves
through, even though the daytime passage of the front will reduce
the impact on the roadway. On the lee side of the Ruby Mountains,
downslope wind gusts could get very strong this afternoon with
the frontal passage. This includes Ruby, Clover and Franklin
Valleys. The trough axis will be east of the state by late evening
and the storm will wind down. High temperatures will range from
the 40s across Elko County to the 50s elsewhere.

Midnight tonight through Saturday night. There may be some fog
development in the mornings as the air mass stabilizes in a moist
environment. Then as the Pacific ridge tries to reconstruct,
there will be a surge of Pacific moisture crossing Oregon and
northern Nevada, modeled to dirty the ridge crest and will
possibly instigate some shower activity near the Oregon and Idaho
borders with Nevada. Northern Elko County could pick up another
couple inches of snow. High temperatures will range from the 40s
across Elko County to the 50s elsewhere. Low temperatures will
generally be in the 20s tonight and the 30s Saturday night.

Sunday. Dry conditions return and a warming trend is expected to
begin. High pressure will expand out over the eastern Pacific and
push any moisture further north of the Silver State. High
temperatures will rebound into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday.

Good agreement with the global models. An unseasonably strong 595
dm upper high, amplified far north into Canada, dominates at the
start of the long term period bringing dry conditions and high
temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal, reaching into the 70`s
for the warmest valleys. By Wednesday, global models retrograde
the ridge far westward into the Pacific as a low moving eastward
through Canada drags a front southwestward through the western
states on Thursday. It appears at this time that the front will
just bring the region some breezes and clouds while keeping the
moisture band to the northeast of Nevada. Any cooling would be
minor.

&&

.AVIATION...A strong cold front will quickly move through the
state this morning. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front will
be highest across northern Nevada early this morning. Winds will
shift to the west at KWMC around 11Z and KEKO around 13Z. Expect
wind speeds of 20-25 kts gusting to near 35 kts as the cold front
and associated precipitation move across the area. In addition,
increasing cloud cover and precipitation with the cold front will
cause ceilings to quickly drop to MVFR and VFR for a short time as
the frontal precipitation moves through the region. Accumulating
snow is not expected at KWMC or KEKO but lowered CIGs and snow
above 5500 ft will impact flights en route with lowered
visibilities and mountain obscurations. Significant precipitation
is not expected at KTPH and KELY but gusty winds are expected as
the cold front moves through central and eastern NV around mid
morning. West to northwest winds gusting 25-30 kts expected at
all terminals this afternoon.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
Northern Elko County.

Wind Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Humboldt County.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
for Northwestern Nye County-South Central Elko County-
Southeastern Elko County.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range.

&&

$$

92/90/90



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