Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 262144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
244 PM PDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with well above normal temperatures again on
Thursday. A Pacific storm system will spread showers across the
area late Thursday through Friday.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday. A mild southwest flow ahead
of incoming Pacific storm system will bring another mild day to
the region with highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Incoming
storm will begin to spread showers into western Humboldt county
late Thursday afternoon reaching the Utah border late Thursday
night or early Friday. Widespread showers across the area on
Friday. With the mild airmass only the highest peaks will see any

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday. With the upper
level pattern continuing to be progressive, several storms are
poised to move through the Great Basin to yield some significant
rain totals. The timing of the first storm system prior to the
weekend by the individual models is similar and there will be an
infusion of moisture from a dying tropical system.

Friday night. A slightly positive-tilted mean trough will be the
focus of entertainment as it develops and settles over the eastern
Pacific. Central low pressure within the digging trough out over
the Pacific will produce a very moist flow over Nevada. A robust
shortwave will move through California and Nevada and some remnant
tropical moisture from a disintegrating Seymour will be infused
into the flow. The main influx of moisture from this system will
be during the day Friday however with a persistent fetch of
moisture, this system could produce an additional half-inch of
rain for the valleys of northern Nevada. Low temperatures will be
in the 40s. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to the
lower 60s.

Saturday through Saturday night. A strong low pressure system
will drop south off the coast of northern California. The
southwest flow across the Sierras will likely scrape off some of
the moisture content. Some model discrepancy is showing up as the
GFS model and this is no longer showing up as a dry period, but
rather unsettled. However QPF values will not be so grand as we
will sort of be between systems. High temperatures will range
from the 50s to the lower 60s. Low temperatures will be in the

Sunday through Wednesday. A strong short wave is progged to lift
northeast from the mean trough hanging out over the Pacific, then
move through northern Nevada. There is a little better agreement
with this scenario however timing is still off. In any case, this
system promises to bring another round of decent precipitation
amounts, only this time snow levels will dip to around 6000 feet.
High temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

.AVIATION...CIGS will be lowering Thursday afternoon however VFR
conditions will hold through that time at KWMC KEKO KELY and KTPH.

.FIRE WEATHER...Another dry and mild day in store for the area
Thursday before a Pacific storm begins to spread showers across
the region beginning late Thursday and continuing through Friday.



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