Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 270930
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AFTER TODAY...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A CONVECTIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS NOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY TO NORTHEAST
ELKO COUNTY HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH ALL NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ELKO AND
SPRING CREEK AREAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM PDT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
ABUNDANT ALONG THIS LINE BUT IS EVER SO SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS THE
LINE BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. THE HRR AND RAP MODELS PICKED OUT THIS
SHORT WAVE EXTENDING OFF OF THE MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER
ID/WA/OR. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO MOVE THE MEAN LOW FEATURE
IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FASHION. THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS JUST AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE MEAN LOW FEATURE BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL DROP THROUGH THE
STATE. SHOWERS WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWFA AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST AREAS AS WELL...THE EXCEPTION
BEING MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE
RUBY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THEN AS THE MEAN TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER
WYOMING...YET ONE MORE WEAK SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL INSTIGATE SOME
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AND SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE EASTWARD THUS CONVECTION SHOULD SHUT OFF
RATHER ABRUPTLY LATE AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE INITIALLY AND WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...MORE
DAYTIME HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 80S DURING THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN ELKO COUNTY. RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES SUNDAY...BUT SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAINLY IN ELKO COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY FOOD
AGREEMENT ON MONDAY BRINGING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE REALLY
IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AS EC KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA...
WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH WITH EITHER
MODEL SOLUTION WILL KEEP NEXT TUESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94


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