Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 211131
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
331 AM PST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect flurries or light to moderate snow showers this
morning with only light accumulations possible. Today will be the
relative calm before a significant winter storm impacts northern
and central Nevada late Saturday night through Monday. After this
storm, expect very cold overnight lows as valley inversions build
back into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Rest of tonight though Monday.

An area of moderate to potentially heavy snow is moving east
across northern Eureka County. This seems to be associated with a
weak vort max embedded in the h5 flow. It can bee seen quite
nicely in the latest rap analysis overlaid with the current wv
imagery. This should continue to move across and along the I80
corridor over the next couple of hours. NE of Carlin through Elko,
and Ryndon could easily pick up an additional 1" of snow. There
are also other snow showers across the CWA, but are less
impressive. Any one location should generally receive less than
0.5" of snow.

Today will be somewhat of a calm period before the next/final
storm moves through. Morning flurries and afternoon isolated snow
showers will be possible. Winds will be a little brisk and temps
will be near freezing in eastern NV to slightly above in the
western portions of the CWA.

By late Saturday night, the initial push of moisture will begin
across the western sections of the CWA. This will quickly spread
east across the CWA by Sunday morning and early afternoon. The
initial push will be aided by modest isentropic lift and sfc winds
will likely be on the rise. Central NV will see the strongest
winds Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. This will cause
considerable blowing/drifting snow. Even across northern NV, there
should be patchy areas of blowing/drifting snow. This will likely
increase as an impressive and very anomalous jet pushes into NV.
As the jet noses into the state, it will place northern NV in the
right exit region. Combine that with increasing steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong FGEN forcing, that is a recipe for heavy
banded snowfall. It will be tricky to pinpoint where these bands
setup, but the models agree on multiple areas moving from NW to SE
across the CWA. Decided to hoist Winter Storm Watches for the
entire CWA with the exception of zone 33 (W Wendover area), due to
the potential of the heavier bands, significant/large impacts,
and overall anomalous synoptic pattern. Widespread 4-8 inches of
snow across the north is expected with 5-9 across central
sections. The mountains across the north will see 10-20 inches
while mountains in the central portion of the state could see up
to 2` feet of snow. Backcountry travel/recreation is not
recommended during this time frame and may be impossible due to
blizzard-like conditions. Winds in the higher elevations may
easily gust over 60 mph. If you must travel, allow plenty of extra
time to reach your destination and plan accordingly.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday

Models are a little more inconsistent in bringing a weak
disturbance south-southeastward across northeast NV Monday night
into Tuesday. GFS is now the outlier so toned down expected snow
accumulations for this likely minor system. However, northwest
flow magnitude could facilitate enhanced upslope snow especially
the Rubies for late Monday night into early Tuesday morning so
situation will need to be watched carefully over the weekend.
A ridge will settle in over the Great Basin bringing relief from
the active winter weather for the latter part of the week with a
moderate confidence of quiet conditions lasting through early
February as a blocking high sets up along the west Coast.
Temperatures are expected to fall beginning Monday night as cloud
cover diminishes across the state and remain below normal for an
extended period through next weekend. Expansive snow cover will
bring temperatures down even more with highs in the lows 20s to
low 30s farther south and west with lows in the single digits to
below zero in some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...On and off snow showers will bring continued low CIGS
through the morning hours along with reduced visibilities bringing
occasional IFR to LIFR conditions. A slight improvement is
expected by the afternoon as snow showers diminish across the
state. Mountain obscurations all sites, and en route. A more
significant winter storm will impact the state Sunday into Monday
bringing a prolonged period of aviation hazards to the region.
Periods of heavy snow along with significant VIS reductions will
accompany this system.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County-South Central Elko County-Southwestern
Elko County.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
for Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County-White Pine County.

&&

$$

94/93/93



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