Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 310641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13


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