Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 231919
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

At mid afternoon the center of Cindy`s circulation was between
Bowling Green and Paducah, heading to the ENE. Moderate to heavy
rain will accompany the low is it progresses across southern
Kentucky, moving into eastern Kentucky by mid-evening. Though the
chances of flooding have diminished, locally heavy downpours will
still be possible. After coordinating with JKL and OHX, will keep
FFA as is, but the headlines will most likely be able to be
cancelled before their scheduled expiration time.

Low level shear has weakened a bit over eastern sections of the CWA
over the past few hours. Shear remains high closer to Cindy, but a
thick overcast and steady moderate to heavy rain are limiting
instability there. Still, cells east of I-65 will have to be watched
for low level rotation over the next few hours.

A cold front coming in from the northwest, accompanied by widely
scattered convection, will enter the region this evening and
gradually push the rain out. South central Indiana will be dry by
11pm, and central Kentucky before dawn Saturday.

Patchy valley fog may form near Lake Cumberland around sunrise
Saturday, though cirrus may help to keep it at bay.

Saturday and Saturday night will be dry with afternoon temperatures
peaking around 80. Lows in the 50s Saturday night will be about 10
degrees cooler than normal.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Most of the long term will be dry as high pressure slowly moves from
the Plains to off the Carolina coast. Monday and Tuesday will be the
picks of the week with plenty of sunshine and highs only in the 70s.
(By comparison, record highs for those days are in the 101-105
degree range.) As the anticyclone moves off to the east,
temperatures will warm back up into the 80s for afternoon
temperatures Wednesday through Friday.

A cold front approaching from the west may bring some scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances to the region late in the week,
though it looks like the front may have trouble making it very far
to the east as it runs into the west side of the aforementioned high
to our southeast.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Low pressure associated with the remnants of Cindy is currently
centered west of BWG, and will move east across the region this
afternoon and evening. Deep tropical moisture is moving into the
area associated with that feature, and ahead of an approaching cold
front from the NW. Very high rainfall rates are expected with
showers and a few embedded T-Storms. Have included prevailing MVFR
vis in SHRA, with TEMPO IFR vis based on best timing for each site.
Will also mention VCTS, for a few isolated T-storms.

Best timing at SDF for heavy rainfall will be in the 4 to 8 PM EDT
time frame, between 5 and 10 PM EDT at LEX, and between 1 and 6 PM
CDT at BWG. Current gusty winds should actually let up a bit as the
heavier rain sets in, but will sill have to be cautionary of any
embedded t-storms.

Otherwise, surface winds veer around to NW as the low and cold front
pass, with conditions quickly improving back to VFR this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........BJS



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