Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 312010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
410 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016
Partly cloudy skies were noted across the region this afternoon.
Temperatures were in the mid 80s and are expected to reach their
daily maximum peaks in the next hour or so. Most likely highs will
range from 83-88 and then cool into the upper 70s to the low 80s
this evening. Overnight, partly cloudy conditions are expected with
overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s.
For Wednesday, broad surface trough will push in from the northwest.
We`ll get a stronger SW moisture flow into the region which should
result in dewpoints rising back up...especially west of the I-65
corridor. Latest local and national high res models suggests some
scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon mainly
across west KY and into southwest IN. This activity looks to weaken
after sunset with only some isolated showers/storms possible into
Wed night. Highs Wednesday will top out in the 84-89 degree range
with overnight lows back into the upper 60s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016
A relatively broad trough axis will continue to drop southeast into
the region on Thursday and then stall out across the region.
Multiple mid-level waves will move northeast across the region
resulting in episodic convection. Today`s Euro was a bit more
aggressive with precipitation coverage Thursday through Saturday and
overall is much wetter than the other global models. Overall, have
trended PoPs up through this period.
A sharp upper trough and associated cold front will drop into the
region during the day on Sunday resulting in another round of shower
and storms. A deep upper trough will remain in place across the
region on Monday and Tuesday with a few secondary waves rotating
through. Colder temps aloft should result in afternoon instability
developing resulting in scattered convection. Much cooler weather
is on tap and will arrive in the Mon/Tue time frame.
Highs Thursday and Friday will be dependent on clouds and
precipitation. For now have gone with lower-mid 80s and overnight
lows in the lower-mid 60s. Upper 70s look likely for Saturday and
Sunday with mid-upper 70s likely for Monday/Tuesday. Overnight lows
in the 60s will be common, but mid-upper 50s will be possible Monday
night and Tuesday morning.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. The only
exception is some possible light fog at BWG tomorrow morning. Have
added in MVFR visibilities from 09-13Z tomorrow at BWG. Otherwise,
high clouds with a few cu will continue to move across the area.
Winds will be out of the east today, becoming light and variable
tonight. They will switch to southerly tomorrow and be around 5-7