Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 021754
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
154 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS ANY STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE JUST AFTER
SUNSET.

STILL SOME FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
BASED ON THIS MORNING EXPECT IT TO BE PATCHY AND NOT DENSE.

SLIGHT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, BUT WILL CARRY A 20-30
POP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
TEMPS CONTINUE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON, A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT
OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE AS WELL IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

GOING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP TO THE WEST. THESE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY FLATTENS OUT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A SLOPPY
GRADIENT WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CU. MAIN CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE,
WITH A FEW HRS OF PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY, GENERALLY BETWEEN 08-
13Z. AS USUAL, BWG WILL BE THE MOST TRICKY, AS IT COULD GO BRIEFLY
IFR. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT IT WILL BE TOO BRIEF TO EVEN WARRANT A
TEMPO.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........RAS
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........RAS


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