Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 231200 AAA
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Medford OR
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Updated aviation discussion

.DISCUSSION...The forecast focus was on coastal temperatures for
the next two days. Have only made minor changes to inland
temperatures for the next few days. The big question is how warm
will the coastal cities get today and Saturday. The guidance was
showing the Brookings Airport reaching the mid to upper 80s today
and the temperature at 2 am was a balmy 83 degrees with a
northeast wind gusting to 33 mph. The HRRR high resolution model
shows winds turning onshore at Brookings today around 1 pm.
Therefore, have raised the high at Brookings to 89 degrees but the
exact climb upward has a lot of uncertainty.

Farther north, the Coos Bay area is also a challenging
temperature forecast. Northerly flow should allow some cooling
compared with inland areas and it was 54 degrees at 230 am. Have
raised the high temperature at the North Bend Airport to 75
degrees today and kept the 80 degrees for Saturday. The cooler
south-to-north surge of marine air may not make it that far north
until late on Saturday so there is the chance that temperatures
could climb through the 80s on Saturday.

The ocean temperatures are only in the upper 40s and lower 50s due
to strong upwelling (colder ocean water coming up from below) which
has occurred due to the recent gusty and persistent north winds.
These cold ocean temperatures will really be felt when the winds
turn onshore, especially when accompanied by low clouds and fog.

Elsewhere inland, it will be very hot with near record high
temperatures this weekend. Various excessive heat warnings and
heat advisories are in effect this weekend.

There will be a transition to cooler air early next week with
thunderstorms possible during this change of airmass. The upper
flow will become southerly on Sunday and the models have been
consistently showing convection and precipitation developing from
mainly the Cascades westward. The models have also shown the
convection continuing throughout the night so we could see an
unusual bout of isolated to scattered thunderstorms persisting
through the night.

On Monday the convection should focus farther east from around
the Oregon Cascades eastward as an upper trough comes through our
area by evening. Much of next week will feature temperatures
closer to normal with dry conditions as the upper westerlies
influence the Pacific Northwest.
Sandler

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions will continue at all
inland terminals through the TAF period. There appears to be a good
chance for MVFR visibilty in light fog to redevelop at OTH after 04z
this evening and worsen some toward 12z. MTS

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM Friday, 23 June 2017...Little change to the
forecast today other than to end the gale warning a bit earlier
south of Cape Blanco. The strong thermal trough will be moving
inland this afternoon with a weakening pressure gradient over the
waters. Hazardous seas and small craft advisory winds will continue
into tonight however. Saturday the north winds will weaken
considerably with seas remaining somewhat elevated beyond 5 nm from
shore. South flow prevails Sunday into Monday as low pressure moves
in from the southwest. MTS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for ORZ618.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for
     ORZ023>028.
     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday
     for ORZ023>028.

CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for
     CAZ080-081.
     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday
     for CAZ080-081.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this
    evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.
    Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 11 PM this evening
    to 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
    Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for
    PZZ356-370-376.
    Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ376.

$$



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