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000
FXUS66 KMFR 251500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING OVER THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. A FEW STATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE
IN CURRY COUNTY REPORTED 0.01 INCHES IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. OTHER
THAN THAT IT HAS BEEN DRY.  THE SHORT WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT DIDN`T DO MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE PRECIPITATION
DEPARTMENT AS IT WAS TIMED WITH MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THIS ONE IS STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT JUST
PASSED THROUGH...SO IT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST THIS EVENING AND
SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT. THE BULK OF IT WILL FALL ALONG THE
COAST..COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THERE ARE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY.

BOTH THE SHORT WAVE AND THE PARENT TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST SUNDAY EVENING AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKLY AND
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
BIGGEST RAIN MAKER OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING INLAND DURING THE DAY. UNLIKE THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM...JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE MEDFORD CWA WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVES
MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ROUGHLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AND ONE MORE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH INLAND
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. ELSEWHERE...AREAS IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY
AND COAST WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING THEN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND 00Z ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY
06Z. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BANK UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15