Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 260301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...26/00Z NAM IN.

A MOST EVENTFUL DAY WEATHERWISE WITH LOTS OF STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY SEAS OFFSHORE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA...BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME STRONG WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL
CALM DOWN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

NOTABLE PEAK WIND GUSTS...94 MPH AT CAPE BLANCO...105 MPH AT SQUAW
PEAK IN THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY...44 MPH
IN MEDFORD...61 MPH AT WEED...AND 53 MPH AT SUMMER LAKE. THE CAPE
BLANCO BUOY(BUOY 46015) REPORTED SEAS AS HIGH AS 26 FT WITH AT
LEAST ONE ROGUE WAVE WITH A HEIGHT OF 46 FT. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE CWA.

THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE MEDFORD CWA...SO POST-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT TROUGH AND THE
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT DEPART TO THE EAST SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS ARE AT AROUND 7500 FEET NOW...BUT WILL DROP TO NEAR 5000
FEET BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION ON
WEST FACING SLOPES...ESPECIALLY THE VICINITY OF CRATER LAKE.

OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE STORM DOOR WILL OPEN ONCE AGAIN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP AT THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND HAVE BOTH TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WEAKER/LESS WET WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE SYSTEM WILL STILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOR THE WEST
SIDE...EXCEPT HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CURRY COUNTY TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST SIDE.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFD...WEDNESDAY
MORNING THOUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TRAILING REMNANTS OF
ANA ARE FEEDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWING THE JET FARTHER SOUTH...YESTERDAY THE JET AXIS WAS OVER
SEATTLE AND TODAY IT IS SHOWING IT OVER THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA.
THIS STILL PLACES THE JET SUPPORT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
GREATEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO HEAVY RAIN HERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH THE ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS MUCH MORE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH AN ALMOST KISSING JET PATTERN INDICATED AS
THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A SOUTHERLY JET COMBINES WITH THE NOSE OF
A 110 KT JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH GOOD
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
AN ACTIVE SHOWERY PATTERN PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. /SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...THE SECONDARY TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE EAST SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THIS TROUGH, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND RAIN WILL BECOME
MORE OF A SHOWERY PATTERN. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COAST AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE
EVENING UNTIL AT LEAST 26/06Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...TAPERING OFF FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. EAST OF THE
CASCADES MVFR CIGS WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT WITH AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED. ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR MONDAY. MND

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SAT 25 OCT 2014...THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR GALES AND HEAVY SEAS IS MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
GALE WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL SOON DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...HEAVY SEAS
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
LATER SUNDAY LASTING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
BRINGS THE RETURN OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/15





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