Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
139 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

High pressure/light winds over the east tonight and skies will
remain clear. With that setup went for lows in the 40s inland
central and east. Temperatures will be in the 50s elsewhere, warmest
over far west with developing return flow there. Could be some
patchy fog overnight inland east.

Mid-level and sfc high pressure will remain in control through much
of the day on Tue keeping conditions dry over much of the cwa. Dew
points increasing to near 60F along and ahead of incoming frontal
boundary from the Northern Plains will result in MUCAPE values of
500j/kg or greater far west by late afternoon. This will at least
warrant slight chance pops over the far west for isold shra/tsra,
and with deep layer shear values fcst of 40-45 knots a strong tsra
would not be out of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

Main focus is on Tue night and Wed as a cold front moves across the
area, likely bringing convection. Otherwise, high pressure will keep
things quiet until maybe day 7 when some energy could bring some
precip, but no details on that yet.

Looks like weakening convection should move into the area late Tue
into Tue night, some of which could be strong to severe over mainly
the western CWA. CAPE is initially in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and
shear around 30kts, but diminishing CAPE with the normal diurnal
trend will diminish the severe weather threat over all but the far
W. The threat for sub-severe, yet strong, storms does look to extend
into central Upper MI.

On Wed, as the front continues to drop SE through the area, precip
looks to continue along the front, but coverage is uncertain. If
coverage is minimal there is a chance that some strong to possibly
severe storms could develop over the S-central given strong shear.

Blends handled everything well, so didn`t make any changes to
blended initialization.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

VFR conditions expected at each of the TAF sites through this
issuance.  Clouds will begin to slide into the western TAF sites
around 00Z/26, VFR intitially, and then gradually thicken to near
MVFR toward the end of the TAF period. A few showers and
thunderstorms may approach the western TAF sites after 00Z/26;
however, have left the mention out at this point as it is toward the
very end of the TAF period and chances are fairly low at that point.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 252 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

Winds will be 15 knots or less through Tuesday morning with high
pressure overhead. The next chance for stronger winds from the south
to southwest over 20 kts will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
morning over eastern sections as a low pressure trough crosses the
region. Otherwise, winds this week will be 15 kts or less.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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