Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 011911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
308 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
BE DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT/THETA-E BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS BEHIND
THIS FEATURE. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...AND WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A S-SW 850 MB FLOW AROUND 40 KTS
WILL PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY...AND THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE LOWEST POPS AND WARMEST HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE
CIN AREA IS STRONGER NORTH AS WELL...SO WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH NO TSTMS THERE. AT THIS TIME A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR
TOMORROW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REASSESS IF WINDS ALOFT
TREND STRONGER.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY.  AN UNORGANIZED BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE.  DECENT 850MB JET AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  COULD SEE LIMITED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.  THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS.  SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.  WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  72  59  75 /  20  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  71  58  73 /  20  40  30  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  70  58  73 /  20  40  30  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  73  55  70 /  10  20  40  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/MJB



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