Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 070756
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH FOG FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM AHEAD OF IT ACROSS
WESTERN TN AND KY IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND NEAR BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS THERE. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES WEST TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IF RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
LIKE NAM SUGGESTS THE ONLY CONVECTION MAY BE RIGHT ALONG TN BORDER
AND IN SW VA NEAR KY. WENT CLOSER ON HIGHS TO MORE CONSERVATIVE
GFS/MAV AND WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH...STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOUTH OF FRONT MOVING INTO OHIO
VALLEY AND WITH ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THINK GFS/MAV GUIDANCE IS TO HIGH ON
POPS SO WENT CLOSER TO NAM/MET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
EVENING EXCEPT ALONG TN/VA BORDER AREA WITH KY. PATCHY FOG IS
FORMING NOW AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BEFORE MORNING. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN CONCENTRATION ON AREAS
NORTH OF I 40. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA
IMPACTING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS. WENT MORE WITH THE NAM WITH STORMS
MOVING OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
AND IN TO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT EACH DAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WEST CENTERING OVER TEXAS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM INCREASING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS USUALLY HAPPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED
DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  72  90  71 /  20  20  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  70  87  70 /  20  20  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       88  70  87  69 /  20  20  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  67  86  67 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/JW


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