Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 270730
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
330 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...A cool front will move across
the region today bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the
forecast area. Moderate levels of shear and instability could
allow for the formation of strong to severe storms in a few spots
today as cold air builds in aloft. The chance for rain will
gradually end from west to east through the afternoon hours as the
boundary slips closer to the Appalachian Spine. Highs will be
limited to the middle and upper 70s today due to clouds and rain.
Skies will be clear to partly cloudy tonight as drier air moves in
behind the departing front.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...A summer-like pattern
will be establishing itself as a large high pressure ridge off the
SE coast will provide a very warm SW flow across the TN Valley
region. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 80s for most of the
area, with record highs in the upper 80s expected on Saturday.
While surface dewpoints will be rising into the mid 60s on
Saturday, a capping inversion will likely suppress most afternoon
convection outside the mountains. Will have just a slight chance
PoP Saturday in the higher elevations. Record highs for Saturday
are 88 at TYS and CHA, and 86 for TRI.

A strong low pressure system will track from the Missouri Valley
region to the northern MS Valley on Sunday/Sunday night. This will
bring a severe threat to our west that will be diminishing in
intensity as storms track east and reach our area Sunday night.
Dynamic forcing will be lifting NE into the OH Valley, and overnight
timing will favor weak instability at best. A marginal wind threat
appears possible with a LJJ of 50-60 kts.

Cold frontal passage on Monday will bring temperatures back to near
normal levels for Tuesday. However the pattern across the CONUS
remains very progressive, and another approaching trough shown by
the GFS and ECMWF will bring another chance of rain for Wednesday.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             77  54  85  66 /  90  10  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  76  53  85  65 /  90  10  10  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       76  52  85  65 /  80  10  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              75  51  85  59 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$




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