Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 311943
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
343 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AS WITH THE
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SNOW
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CHANGES THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE SNOW FORECAST. EXTENDING THE CURRENT ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL VALLEY TO INCLUDE ANDERSON...UNION...GRAINGER...AND
COCKE. ALSO ADDING THE MOUNTAIN ZONE OF MONROE INTO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.

WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA AREN`T QUITE MET.
NONETHELESS...WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WINDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES RIGHT OVER THE EAST TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO SC/NC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
WE WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FREEZING LEVELS TO BEGIN TO PLUMMET SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND BE DOWN TO AROUND 500 TO 1K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT...LEVELS FURTHER FALL LATER INTO THE NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
NEAR FREEZING AT THE SURFACE BY AROUND 5/6AM EST. AGAIN...LITTLE
QUESTION AS TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE WARM LAYER BECOMING
SO SHALLOW. SOUNDINGS IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS INDICATE
GOOD SNOW GROWTH WITH MOISTURE ALL THE UP TO -20 DEG CELSIUS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. AREAS UP INTO SWVA AND EXTREME NETN EXPERIENCE GOOD
MOISTURE AT -20 DEG C FROM ABOUT 06Z SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME IS WHEN THE BULK OF THE
SNOW WILL OCCUR.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALLS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS IS HIGH. THE ADVISORY AREAS ARE WHERE THERE ARE STILL SOME
QUESTIONS. SNOW WILL FALL IN THESE AREAS...SOME PLACES EVEN SEVERAL
INCHES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ACTUALLY STICKS TO THE GROUND DUE
TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WATCH OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
DUE TO EXPECTED SUBFREEZING TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOW CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE MTNS/ MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. HOWEVER...CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THESE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
RESULT IN ANOTHER FREEZE ACROSS SW VIRGINIA/NE TENNESSEE AND A NEAR
FREEZE/FROST ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH AND AMPLE SUNSHINE PREVAILING...A WARM-UP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR AS HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH/COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR...AND THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  46  30  52 /  30  20   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  33  41  29  48 /  80  70  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  41  29  48 /  80  60  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  38  28  42 / 100 100  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-
     SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-UNION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

&&

$$

SR/AMP



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