Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 231904
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER QUIET SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WITH COOL AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND WARM WATER IN AREA LAKES AND RIVERS...COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP ALONG WATERWAYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS...CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...GFS AND NAM SHOWS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO PULL WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
INTO FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING IS FROM A TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE.
HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND INCLUDED LOW-CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW NO CONTINUITY
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. HAVE BACK-OFF ON THE POPS SOME
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLOW MOISTURE GULF MOISTURE RETURN.

GENEALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE CLOSELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  76  50  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/DH


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