Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 171920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
TONIGHT JUST OFF THE MS DELTA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS OVER OUR AREA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS GENERATES MASSIVE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE MTNS...AND TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO GA. THE
NAM...SREF...AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND KEEP
THE LOW OVER FL...AND THE QPF WELL TO OUR EAST. A DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING THE VALLEY DRY. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTION IN THE VALLEY AND PLATEAU...BUT
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SW NC AND THE MOUNTAINS TO MAINTAIN SOME
POP/QPF CONTINUITY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY STAYED NEAR A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO ATLANTIC SATURDAY. FORECAST AREA MOSTLY WEST OF RAIN
AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER. THEN HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. GFS MODEL MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH MOISTURE SHIELD SO PREFER NAM/ECMWF WHICH KEEPS
THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
HINDERED SOME BY CLOUD COVER SATURDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL AND
THEN WILL WARM SLIGHTLY SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WEAK FRONT TUESDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE COOLING AFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  43  66  46 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  42  66  46 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  41  67  45 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  37  65  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD


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