Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 112152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
352 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Issued at 338 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A dry cold front was making its way southeast across Missouri this
afternoon. Northwest winds were gusting to around 40 mph behind the front
this afternoon. The front will cross the lower Ohio Valley this
evening, followed by increasing northwest winds and post-frontal
stratocumulus clouds. Peak wind gusts behind the front should be
in the 30 to 40 mph range tonight, based on the momentum transfer
algorithm in Bufkit. A few sprinkles or flurries may follow the
front late tonight, especially in southwest Indiana and northwest
KY. Lows will fall to around 30 early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday will be colder behind the front. 850 mb temps will be
close to minus 10 at times, limiting surface high temps to the
30s despite ample sunshine. Winds will diminish as high pressure
builds closer. The slightly higher humidity and lower winds should
preclude the need for another Red Flag Warning in Missouri on
Wednesday. See Fire Weather section for details.

Winds will be southwest again on Wednesday ahead of another cold
front. This cold front also looks to be dry. Highs on Wednesday
will recover into the lower 40s in southwest IN to the lower 50s
in se Missouri. This front does not look as strong as the front
coming through tonight, so forecast lows Wed night will be in the
lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

At the beginning of the period, a large upper level low will be
north of New England with a ridge persistent over the Pacific Coast
region. Unsettled NW flow aloft will continue across the nation east
of the Rockies and over our area until then. A trof will move
southeast across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Only a
few flurries will be possible mainly in the westernmost southeast
Missouri counties.

Models take a different view of the weekend storm. The GFS has the
trof digging into the Southern Plains over the weekend, pulling
moisture north into the area in advance of an area of surface low
pressure that is forecast to be over northern AR by Sunday morning.
Rainfall is concentrated over the southern half of the forecast
area. The ECMWF pulls that low further north into central IL along
with the moisture showing very little in the way of rain anywhere in
our area. The CMC is somewhere in the middle and has more of an
elongated but open wave keeping the southern moisture south of the
area with little moisture to the north. The official forecast has
chance pops across much of west Kentucky with slight chance
elsewhere from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the week
and nudge a little higher to highs in the 50s over the weekend with
lows staying above freezing.


Issued at 338 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A quick look at frontal position at 21Z shows it is on
track/poised to make passage across the terminals during the next
3 to 6 hours. We`ll see VFR conditions deteriorate shortly after
passage, with MVFR bases appearing, possibly going with CIGS for a
short duration as winds shift to gusty northwest. The chance of
pcpn reaching the ground is minimal, with very dry air above and
below the roughly 2-3K FT cloud thickness. While winds
continue/gusty northwest tmrw, skies should abruptly clear by late
morning/into the planning period.


Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A combination of very low rh, strong winds, and severe drought has
necessitated a Red Flag Warning for the Ozark foothills through
early this evening. The rh at the West Plains ASOS was 13 percent
with a sustained wind of 20 mph early this afternoon. Winds will
remain gusty much of the night, but rh recovery should be rather
strong this evening as temps cool down behind a cold front.

The lack of precip the remainder of the workweek means fire
weather will still be a concern in the drought-stricken areas of
the Ozark foothills. Winds will be on the gusty side, and rh will
be quite low each of the next couple afternoons. The combination
of winds and rh is not expected to be quite as conducive for fire
spread as it was today. Therefore, the elevated fire danger will
be handled in the HWO as opposed to any watches or warnings.


MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ098-100-



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