Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 062321
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri May 6 2016

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 6 2016

Surface high pressure over the Gulf Coast states will keep the PAH
forecast area dry through Saturday morning. Winds will shift to
the southwest tonight, and conditions will very quickly warm up.
Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees warmer than last night,
with readings in the lower to middle 50s. Highs on Saturday will
climb into the lower to middle 80s.

A surface low will move over the Central Plains Saturday, which
will set up a front north of our region. This front will sag south
into our northern counties by Saturday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and north of the
front, so a few showers and storms will be possible along the
Interstate 64 corridor by late Saturday afternoon, with chances
spreading south into northwest Kentucky and a little more of
southern Illinois Saturday night. Models indicate a bit of a lull
on Sunday, so just kept some slight chances for showers and
isolated storms generally along and north of a line Perryville
Missouri to Carbondale Illinois to Owensboro Kentucky. Chances
will begin picking up from the west Sunday night as the surface
low begins to move slowly move east.

Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm Saturday night into
Sunday night with the predominantly southwest flow. Areas closer
to the front will be a few degrees cooler as winds vary between
south and north as the front meanders in the Interstate 64
corridor, and also due to more clouds and showers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 6 2016

The long term period should start and end on a rain free and warm
note, but there will likely be several unsettled periods in between.

Will start of in a warm sector regime on Monday as sfc warm front
finally lifts north of the region and cold front will be out to the
west in the Plains. Rather high amplitude and deep mid level low
will also be well out to the west. However, negatively tilted short
wave will eject east from the base of the mid level low Monday
night/early Tuesday. By that time, sfc dew point will likely have
risen into the lower 60s with PWATS running up close to 1.25".
Though there will be little in the way of surface feature to supply
low level trigger, negative tilt of the mid lvl low and rich return
of moisture should be enough to support a fairly widespread outbreak
of showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday night. However, a lack
of overall instability and marginal 0-6 km shear over much of the
region may preclude much of a severe storm risk. Shear values may be
a bit more significant over our western counties of se MO, so may
need to monitor that region for isolated severe Monday night. Where
storm do occur...rainfall will be locally heavy though.

May get a break in the precip later Tuesday into Wed as short wave
ridging builds in behind the H50 short wave and region stays in a
warm sector regime with main sfc front out to our west. However, the
front should finally become more progressive as we head into
Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. This could offer another round
of showers/thunderstorms, before the front sweeps through and we
finally get back into a more stable/drying pattern by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri May 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with a few
daytime cumulus and occasional high clouds. Northwest winds around
10 kts this afternoon will become southwest aob 5 kts tonight,
then increase from the southwest to 6 to 12 kts after 13z. Given
the degree of mixing tomorrow, we could see some wind gusts in the
teens.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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