Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$


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