Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 142032
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
232 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Average to above average confidence in the short term.

Snow will continue to change over to sleet, freezing rain, or
freezing drizzle through the rest of the afternoon. By evening all
precipitation should be either freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Only minor additional snowfall and sleet accumulations are expected
through the afternoon hours.

With regional radar showing the back edge of precipitation echoes
advancing eastward over the far northwestern and western sections of
our CWA at the time of this writing, one would question
precipitation chances through the rest of the afternoon, but with
plenty of moisture in the 1000-850MB layer and good upglide on the
I275/I280 surfaces it implies the possibility of freezing drizzle
this evening into the early overnight hours. Therefore do not plan
to cancel all or part of the advisory at this time.

After midnight tonight temperatures are expected to begin warming
from the south to just above freezing over the southeast half of our
CWA, so changed precip there to liquid (drizzle).

Rest of short term...

Main trough over the area will not fully pass through until 12Z
Tuesday and seems to wrap up nicely over our area tomorrow. This
should increase precipitation over the area. Will keep chances of
precipitation until early Tuesday. May see a rain/snow mix over
parts of SEMO early tomorrow before the warmer air moves in and
changes everything to rain.

The parade of systems continues with the next system reaching the
northwest sections after 06Z Tuesday. Cold enough for a rain/snow
mix through the morning but will be very light with no accumulations
expected at this time. Mainly rain through most of the day although
some snow may mix with the rain in the east before it leaves the
area by midnight.

A ridge begins to build into the area by later Tuesday and shuts off
the precipitation until close to the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A weak ridge will be over the region through most of Friday.
Temperatures will rebound nicely to the 50s and 60s by Thursday. A
cold front with little to no moisture with it should pass through
during the day on Friday as the main storm system moves through the
Great Lakes.

As often happens, this front will make it about as far as the Gulf
Coast and then begin to move back north over the weekend. Both the
GFS and the ECMWF want to hold the precipitation off til almost
Sunday. However, the GFS Ensembles are faster with the moisture
return and have elected to follow that.

The main difference between the models seems to be the development
of a jet streak across the southern plains over the weekend. The
GEFS develops a healthy 120kt east west jet centered over Oklahoma
which would increase the low level jet thus bringing moisture in
faster from the Gulf. The GFS and the ECMWF are much weaker with
this jet streak and farther west (GFS being farther north than the
ECMWF with this feature as well).

The good news is that the temperatures will be much warmer compared
to this weekend so rain showers will be the main precipitation
type.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1150 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Conditions will fluctuate as snow and sleet transition to freezing
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Near KEVV and KOWB, snow showers
will exit the area early this afternoon. These showers have been
known to create IFR/LIFR vsbys and cigs and very heavy snow. The
rest of the area will see sleet and freezing rain over the next
few hours, transitioning to freezing drizzle this afternoon as
warmer air moves in.

Cigs are quite low at IFR/LIFR heights within and behind the main
area of precipitation. Most guidance suggests MVFR/IFR or even lower
cigs will continue through most of the forecast period, but vsbys
should bump up to MVFR this evening. Winds are generally southeast
around 10 kts with a few isolated gusts and will decrease this
evening.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...BP2


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