Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 292131
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
230 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...A deepening upper level
trough along the west coast is placing the forecast area under a
southwest flow. Expect some increasing high clouds overnight and
into Tuesday. Also expect a shortwave coming around the trough to
pass over the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and evening. There
could be enough forcing and instability to trigger some thunderstorm
activity but it will have to overcome a pretty dry atmosphere to do
so. Wednesday the upper level trough will nudge closer to the coast
mainly impacting the Cascades with a slight chance of showers and or
thunderstorms. By Thursday the trough will be coming onshore
providing a better chance of showers across most of the forecast
area. We will see a gradual decrease in high temperatures over the
coming days as the trough slowly advances.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday...A mid/upper level
longwave trough near 128W around sunset on Thursday will move inland
Thursday night and push a cold front, increasing moisture and
scattered showers into the forecast area overnight. The trough will
swing across central and northeastern Oregon and southeast
Washington during the day on Friday thus keeping a good chance of
showers going through Friday afternoon. Showers will taper off and
end in central Oregon Friday evening and then taper off and end
overnight before daybreak on Saturday in the Blue Mountains and the
Wallowa Mountains. Saturday will be dry. Another disturbance digging
southeastward on the western flank of the longwave trough Saturday
night will brush past central Oregon, but will keep Central Oregon
dry as the disturbance digs southeast into south central Oregon
through Saturday night. Sunday and Monday will be dry as a high
pressure ridge builds over the region.  Polan

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions with just a few mid and high
level clouds at or above 15K feet will continue for the next 24
hours at all TAF sites. However, a wildfire has produced a smoke
layer aloft with bases 13000-15000 ft AGL. The layer of smoke will
drift northward from KBDN and KRDM to KYKM today. Sustained winds
will be 12 kts or less, except at KDLS, which will have 10 to 15
sustained with gusts of 18-23 kts this afternoon and early this
evening.  Polan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon
through 9 PM for the John Day-Ochoco Highlands (fire zone 642) and
Wallowa District (fire zone 645) due to Haines of 5-6...low
humidity...and locally gusty winds. This includes the Rail and
Indian Crossing Wildfires. Dry and unstable southwest flow is over
eastern Oregon today. Morning RAOBS at SLE MFR and BOI all had 5 for
Haines. The Haines will reach a high category of 6 in the fire zone
642 and in the evening in fire zone 645. During the peak heating of
the day when the humidity will be 8-15 pct. Thunderstorms Tuesday
will be very isolated so will keep the LAL of 2 for Tuesday for
Central and Northeast Oregon. Coonfield

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  58  82 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  64  85  63  83 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  59  89  59  86 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  55  87  54  85 /   0  10  10  20
HRI  58  85  58  83 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  55  85  56  81 /   0  10  20  20
RDM  51  80  48  80 /   0  20  10  10
LGD  54  89  52  85 /   0  10  20  10
GCD  56  90  54  86 /   0  20  10   0
DLS  61  81  60  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ642-645.

WA...None.
&&

$$

91/99/99


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