Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 042229
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
229 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN WASHINGTON WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AND AFTN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO THE 60S ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS BY THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH MID
20S TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO HAVE A RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THEN HAS A SYSTEM COMING ASHORE OUT OF THE PACIFIC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A
TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH RAIN MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH REMAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE NO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH SO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WOULD BE DRY FOR OUR AREA.
THIS TROUGH WAS NOT PRESENT IN THE PAST FEW EARLIER GFS RUNS.
LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE LATEST RUN
SHOWS SOME MEMBERS FAVORING THE TROUGH BUT ABOUT 40% STILL SHOW
RIDGING. HAVE THEREFORE DISCOUNTED THE TROUGH IN THE GFS FOR NOW AND
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS WOULD GIVE US CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY THEN FALL TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ASIDE FROM FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  25  56  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  29  55  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  22  57  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  24  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  20  57  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  23  52  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  17  59  23  66 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  22  52  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  21  53  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  27  59  34  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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