Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
FXUS66 KSGX 290310
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
810 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016
An increase in monsoonal moisture will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts each afternoon and
evening. It will also be slightly cooler this weekend into early
next week with a little more coastal cloudiness.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
The cloud formation and isolated showers this afternoon were
nearly identical to what we saw yesterday. A few showers around
Big Bear Lake, and then a few just south of Barstow. Today only
0.02 inch was recorded in the mountains just north of Big Bear.
Also, just like yesterday, some thunderstorms erupted in Nevada,
Arizona, and Baja Mexico. There are a few more coastal clouds
present this evening and that might be one clue telling us that
the high pressure aloft has begun to weaken and will continue to
do so through the weekend. This will bring some relief to our
inland heat for what looks like the entire coming week. The
southeast flow underneath the high center over Nevada and Utah
will bring in just a little more monsoon moisture the next few
days. This will give us a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms across a larger area of the mountains and deserts
each afternoon. The guidance for Sunday through Tuesday shows that
moisture deepening, which would mean more widespread coverage, but
also heavier and longer lasting rain potential in thunderstorms
that develop. We don`t see any mechanism at the moment to make us
think storms would happen west of the mountains or outside of the
afternoon and early evening window of time. The marine layer looks
poised to bring back greater coastal cloud coverage each night and
morning, but still not very far inland.
281530Z...Coast and Valleys...Patchy stratus will redevelop late
this evening within 10-15 miles of the coast. Where stratus develops
bases will be between 900-1400 ft MSL. Local vis restrictions of 1-3
sm will occur where low clouds intersect the coastal mesas.
Otherwise, FEW AOA 10000 ft will prevail through Friday.
Mountains and Deserts...Isolated thunderstorms possible Friday
afternoon and evening, otherwise FEW-SCT clouds above 10000 feet and
unrestricted vis through Friday evening.
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.