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000
FXUS66 KSGX 271134
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
334 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUST WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE AROUND 7000 FEET...BUT LOWER TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET
FOR LATE SATURDAY AND AROUND 4500 FEET FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (NONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
NEAR THE COAST TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...271000Z...STRATUS WITHIN 50 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES
AROUND 1500-2000 FT MSL...TOPS AROUND 2500-3000 FT MSL...AND AREAS 3-
5 SM VIS IN BR. PARTIAL CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED 27/1500-
2000Z. 28/0000Z LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AGAIN AND CONTINUE AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH VCSH BETWEEN 28/0000-1800Z. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER 28/1800Z. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 28/0600Z...THICKENING LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-5000 FT MSL WITH VCSH. SFC WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING AFTER 28/0000Z
WITH WEST WINDS 30-40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KT MAINLY THROUGH
AND BELOW WEST TO EAST ORIENTED CANYONS...PASSES AND MOUNTAINTOPS.

&&

.MARINE... 2 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THUS...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND
WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
     TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
     SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB