Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 242310
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
410 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold upper trough over the area this morning will
shift east this afternoon. The next system will cross the area
Saturday afternoon and night, with yet another cold storm on tap
for the first part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...
Water Vapor Satellite a closed low over north central Wyoming.
400-200mb MDCARS wind observations place a 130-160kt westerly jet
from Arizona into Oklahoma. GOES/SLC 12Z RAOB/HRRR indicate that
precipitable water values vary from 0.05"-0.10" mountains to
0.15"-0.20" valleys.

With warming aloft and rising heights and loss of daylight,
showers will dissipate this evening. Clearing conditions with a
cold airmass overhead will lead to very cold overnight lows
(considering the readings thus far this month).

The next storm system currently off the British Columbia coast is
cold yet lacking with moisture. This is why as the positively
tilted trough crosses the region the models are not producing a
lot of precipitation. The cold pool aloft crosses from north to
south over the state during the weekend. Have raised PoPs though
mainly in the mountains with most of the moisture being in the
mid levels. It will be cold enough that even a little snow could
cause travel difficulties especially Saturday night into Sunday.

The next storm will approach on the same track late Sunday
night...impacting the area Monday. Since its taking a similar
track this system does not have a lot of moisture. However, this
one brings better dynamics especially height falls and jet.
Therefore expecting more precipitation.

Road surfaces could be quite cold Sunday night. This could cause
travel problems Monday, beginning with the Monday morning commute
as the snow moves into the region.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...
Cold front makes its way through southern Utah Monday
evening/Tuesday morning. Instability showers associated with the
trough are progged to continue through the day Tuesday, primarily
over the higher terrain of northern and central Utah.

Behind the exiting trough, a cool and stable northwest flow is
expected to develop over Utah and southwest Wyoming on the front
side of a ridge centered off the California coast. This will bring
dry conditions with a warming trend, pushing temperatures to or
above seasonal normals by day seven.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at the SLC terminal through the TAF
period. There is a 20% chance of cigs dipping below 7kft through
02Z. Winds will be west northwest through 03Z then shift to
southeast.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rogowski
LONG TERM...Traphagan
AVIATION...Struthwolf

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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