Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 071646
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1046 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A BROAD UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
DEPICT A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND PW VALUES NEAR 1 INCH PER 12Z KSLC
SOUNDING. A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMA
IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR CAPITOL REEF SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN
UT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS EXTENDING BACK INTO WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THIS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE MAY
ACT TO SUPPRESS DEEPER CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD
STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES CELLS ARE ALREADY
FORMING ACROSS THE UINTAS. WITH LIGHT FLOW ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN ON THE TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE PROPAGATING
OFF THE TERRAIN AND INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UPDATED TO BUMP POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UT
WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING...AS WELL AS ADJUST SKY COVER AND ADD
HEAVY RAIN TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST AT KSLC BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY IMPACT
KSLC BETWEEN ROUGHLY 21Z AND 03Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE AGAIN TODAY. NEW LIGHTNING STARTS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...WITH SOME STORMS PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A WETTING
RAIN. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND
HUMIDITY UP A BIT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH. ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AND HIGHER BASED AS A RESULT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO MAINLY
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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