Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKEN AND A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. KEEPING A
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE RATHER DRY AIR...
PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES...WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT. DURING FRIDAY DEEPER
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT THE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW IN
WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FURTHER OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC WHILE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION FINALLY EDGES EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FINALLY WEAKENS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND BUT KEEPS E-SE FLOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEEP LAYER MOISTENING AND DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH SEA/BAY
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR LATE MAY
INTO EARLY JUNE.

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE N CARIBBEAN...BUT THAT
TIMEFRAME GETS INTO HIGHER MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO BE CREDIBLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG
SO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
REACH EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT...BUT WITH THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE RATHER HIGH TODAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  71  89  73 /   0   0  20  20
FMY  91  69  90  72 /   0   0  40  40
GIF  89  68  90  71 /   0   0  30  10
SRQ  91  69  89  71 /   0   0  30  30
BKV  91  64  89  68 /   0   0  20  20
SPG  90  74  88  76 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS


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