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000
FXUS62 KTBW 251832
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
232 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Ridge axis still overhead this afternoon bringing a light
flow to the area with winds mainly out of the southwest
except for our southern zones which are seeing winds more
out of the south and southeast. Showers and storms have
started to develop in our northern counties and along the
coast in Manatee and Sarasota counties.

The two main factors that will help to bring better storm
chances for the rest of the day can be seen on our 12Z ROAB.
Compared to yesterday PW is a little higher and the
subsidence inversion is weaker. That will result in the
inversion breaking down quicker as we heat up through the
rest of the afternoon allowing for better storm development
throughout the day. The best coverage will be east of I-75
in the late afternoon and evening hours.


The forecast on Monday is still looking on track. Weak frontal
boundary starts to sag south into Florida increasing moisture and
bringing in cooler air aloft. This will help to bring widespread
showers and storms across the area. Once again the best
chance will be east of I-75 with POPs ranging in the
50%-70%.

&&


.LONG TERM...
A mid level trough and weak cold front will become stationary over
north Florida as the surface ridge of high pressure retreats over
the Atlantic Ocean.  With this pattern comes a weak southwest flow
and an increase in deep layer moisture over much of the peninsula.
The moist and unstable atmosphere will lead to numerous
thunderstorms over the peninsula with convection developing early
along the west coast on Monday. The greatest chance of rain will be
over the interior of the peninsula. During the week the surface
ridge slowly builds in from the north and east with the dominant
wind flow slowly trending from southwest to southeast by weeks end.
This will result in warmer afternoon temperatures and late afternoon
and evening thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...

Starting to see some convection popping up at this hour
mainly in our northern counties and along the coast in
Sarasota and Manatee counties. As more shra/tsra develop
over the region expect brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds will
stay southwest to west direction around 5 to 10 this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain over the area bringing us
a southeast to southwest flow for the rest of today. With a
weak pressure pattern supporting a typical summer afternoon
for boaters with most showers occurring over land with
heating of the day. A weak frontal boundary will start to
sag south into Florida on Monday turning winds to a more
west northwest flow for a couple of days. Winds speeds will
remain light showers and isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible overnight and in the early morning hours
for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With moist southeasterly flow continuing into next week,
moisture content and relative humidity values will remain
well above critical levels. This combined with chances for
rain each day will prevent any fire weather concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  88  77  89 /  10  50  30  50
FMY  75  90  75  90 /  40  40  30  60
GIF  75  90  75  91 /  50  60  50  70
SRQ  76  87  76  88 /  10  30  20  40
BKV  73  89  73  90 /  10  40  30  50
SPG  78  88  78  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...27/Shiveley
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/Paxton