Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 131953
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
253 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Thursday)...
A closed upper low sits over the northern New England states with
broad troughing extending south through the western Atlantic. The
base of this trough moves northeast allowing for a more zonal upper
level pattern to set up over the Florida peninsula through the short
term period. On the surface, high pressure in the western Gulf of
Mexico will slip east keeping rain-free conditions, light winds and
cool temperatures over the region this evening. The high will move
over southern Florida by Thursday morning which will cause a shift
in the winds to the south-southwest. Continued rain-free conditions
can be expected once again on Thursday with a slight warming trend
with the southerly component winds over the area. With the change in
on-shore south-southwest winds, this will also allow for an increase
in moisture to be advected over west central and southwest Florida.
This mornings 12Z sounding was very dry with a PWAT of only 0.27
inches. Model soundings are picking up on this increase in moisture
with a PWAT near 1 inch by 15/00Z. This increase in moisture will
allow for increasing cloudiness on Thursday as well, but most of the
area should stay rain-free with only a slight chance of showers
over the northern gulf coast waters.

&&

.Long Term (Friday through next Wednesday)...
The weather pattern will remain rather benign into the upcoming
weekend, with no significant precipitation chances for large
deviations from climatology in terms of temperatures.

A weak cold front will dip down into the state during Friday/Friday
night, however this front will not be anything like the past cold
front from last weekend, with only a slight intrusion of cooler and
drier air.

The upper pattern will quickly amplify by the end of the weekend in
response to a series of quick moving impulses crossing the nation.
At this point, the main influence of the pattern during the
early portion of the week will be to warm our weather up.
It will be close call as to whether any of the systems
passing to our north can exert enough influence to support
rainfall into our northern area, but best guess would be the
majority stays along and north of I-10. Therefore will add
some small rain chances early next week to the Nature Coast,
but keep the I-4 corridor and southward generally dry.

Some potential for a stronger cold front to arrive by the middle of
next week, but this is still a long way away, and plenty of time to
watch the guidance evolution during the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions is expected at all terminal sites during the next 24
hours. West-northwest winds in the 5 to 8 knot range this afternoon
will prevail, then decreasing to light and variable overnight.
Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots is expected on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is building into the region from the west which has
allowed for the winds to veer and decrease to the north-northwest
around 10 knots this afternoon. As this high slips eastward, the
winds will further decrease by late this evening and then shift to
the southwest as the high moves east of Florida on Thursday. A weak
front moves through on Friday bringing a slight chance of showers
over the coastal waters. Winds will veer to the north and then
northeast behind this front on Saturday. High pressure settles back
into the area through Sunday and will produce an easterly component
wind over the coastal waters, but remaining 15 knots or less by the
beginning of next week. So outside of any shower activity on Friday,
the conditions over the coastal waters should be favorable for any
boating activities.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure remains over the region today. Dry air will linger
through the evening with some areas seeing RH values below 35
percent, however low ERC values and minimal winds will preclude any
issuance of a red flag warning today. As the high moves south of
Florida on Thursday, winds will turn south-southwest and an increase
in moisture can be expected through the end of the week and into the
weekend with no fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  53  72  61  73 /  10  10  10  20
FMY  48  71  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  72  55  74 /   0  10  10  20
SRQ  51  70  59  72 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  44  72  55  73 /  10  20  10  20
SPG  53  72  61  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka



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