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000
FXUS62 KTBW 250014
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
814 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF OUR REGION
WITH THE HELP OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN REDEVELOPING AROUND OUR REGION AS WELL...LIKELY ALONG
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE CONTINUE BEYOND MIDNIGHT
SO WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT.

AFTER THAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST BY
MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY WELL REPRESENTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.

MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AND POINT
AND CLICKS ON THE WEB. TEXT UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SHRA DEVELOPING IN TAMPA BAY COULD IMPACT TPA THIS EVENING...
BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SRQ...TPA...AND PIE AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR EACH
DAY...WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...JILLSON
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...BARRON