Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 291137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
737 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

29/12Z-30/12Z. Moist westerly flow continues with SCT SHRA and
ISOLD-SCT TSRA through the period with some MVFR/LCL IFR


.Prev Discussion... /issued 434 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today-Friday)...
The moist southwest to west flow will continue with scattered
showers and thunderstorms moving eastward off the gulf and across
the Florida peninsula through the day. The majority of the
convection should wind down this evening, but expect more
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the eastern
gulf and begin moving onshore overnight. The weakening cool front
will move into the Florida Big Bend tonight and into the Nature
Coast Friday before washing out. Therefore, northern portions of
the Nature Coast, Levy into Citrus County, will see some drier
air move in with rain chances diminishing during the day.
Elsewhere though, the moist southwest to west flow will persist
with scattered showers and thunderstorms at almost anytime.
Temperatures will remain near normal with daytime highs in the mid
80s to near 90 and overnight lows in the upper 60s far north with
lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM (Friday Night-Wednesday)...
Strong U/L cutoff low over the midwest will gradually open up and
lift slowly northeast to the Great Lakes area late in the weekend.
An U/L ridge over the western Atlantic will weaken and shift a bit
further east...causing a weakness in the ridge over the extreme
western Atlantic. All eyes will remain on Tropical Storm Matthew
currently over the eastern Caribbean...which is expected to track
west to the central Caribbean over the weekend. See statements
from the National Hurricane Center for specific discussions
regarding Matthew. The overall evolution of the U/L pattern will
determine the long range track of Matthew.

The mid range period will begin with a sharp moisture gradient over
north Florida, with deep tropical moisture persisting over west
central and southwest Florida. Deep layer moisture will begin to
push back to the north on Sunday as deep easterly flow begins to
take over. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoons with the highest
pops along the coast from the Tampa area and south...with shower
activity dissipating during the evening hours each day. Eventual
track of Matthew, which remains uncertain in the long range, will
determine weather across the forecast area for Tuesday and
Wednesday. If Matthew passes east of Florida the middle of next
week in line with the extrapolated NHC forecast, conditions across
west central and southwest Florida could be much drier Wednesday
than currently indicated as dry air would be pulled down the
backside of the storm across the forecast area. Temperatures will
continue to run a few degrees above climatic normals through the
extended period.

Southwest to west flow will continue into tonight across the
waters, then late tonight and Friday the front will drift into the
northern waters shifting winds to a northwest to north direction.
This boundary will wash out with winds shifting to northeast to
east for the weekend into early next week. Wind speeds are
expected to remain 15 knots or less and seas 3 feet or less so the
main hazard will continue to be higher winds and seas in the
vicinity of any convection.

Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
thresholds so no fire weather concerns for the next several days.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  87  75  88  74 /  50  30  30  20
FMY  88  74  89  74 /  50  30  50  30
GIF  88  73  89  72 /  50  20  50  20
SRQ  87  75  88  74 /  50  40  40  30
BKV  88  71  89  70 /  50  30  30  20
SPG  87  76  88  76 /  50  40  30  20


.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.


MID TERM/LONG TERM...13/Oglesby is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.