Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 250734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
334 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
An amplified upper level pattern continues over the CONUS. A closed
upper low sits over eastern Oklahoma, while upper level ridging
extends from the northeast Gulf of Mexico, over Florida and
into the western Atlantic. Another closed low sits over the
Bahamas and Cuba. This pattern shifts east through the
weekend. On the surface, strong high pressure near Bermuda
ridges southwest over Florida. This will keep an east-
southeast wind flow and rain-free conditions over Florida
through the weekend. Another area of high pressure develops
in the northeast Gulf of Mexico by late Saturday evening and
will keep benign weather conditions over the area.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal with
daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows
in the mid 50s to low 60s.
.Long Term (Monday through next Friday)...
Have seem little change in the ensemble guidance during the past day
with respect to the synoptic pattern evolution over the southeast
CONUS through the majority of the long term period. For at least the
Monday through Thursday period the pattern remains rather benign in
terms of sensible weather.
Monday will find the Florida peninsula residing under stacked
mid/upper level ridging...while surface ridging extends down the
Atlantic seaboard into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Available
moisture region-wide is shallow (10Kft or less) presenting
significant challenge to sea-breeze convection potential. Shortwave
energy will be moving along the northern Gulf coast during
Monday...however global guidance ensembles are in good agreement
that the best synoptic support/Qvector convergence ahead of this
trough will pass to our north. Perhaps the closer proximity to this
support to help a shower or two across far northern areas (northern
Sumter/inland Levy County) during the evening hour, but even this is
a long shot.
With a fast and progressive pattern...this shortwave will pass off
to our east Monday Night and the area will once again return to
stacked ridging for Tuesday through Thursday. Other than a very
isolated sea-breeze shower (again a long shot)...the forecast
remains dry and rather warm. Inland locations are likely to rise
well into the 80s much of next week...while the beaches make a run
at 80 degrees before dropping back into the mid/upper 70s with the
onset of the afternoon sea-breeze.
The next significant pattern amplification will emerge from the
central plains later Thursday and then along the northern Gulf coast
Thursday night. Forecast confidence begins to decline at this
point...as ensemble spread rapidly increases with respect to the
evolution of this system. The GFS and its ensembles are become more
aggressive with the potential for rainfall on Friday (especially
northern half of the region) due to stronger shortwave energy
remaining over the Gulf. The ECMWF pivots this system rapidly
northeastward...resulting in little to no height falls over the
peninsula Friday. This ECMWF solution has much more support from the
00Z Canadian solution...and therefore will be leaning the forecast
toward these less aggressive and drier solutions. Will introduce
some low PoPs Friday/Friday Night...however keeping rain chances
conservative with the majority of solutions still keeping best
moisture and lift to our north.
VFR at all terminals next 24 hours. Generally easterly winds will
give way to a sea breeze turning winds onshore near the coast
Saturday afternoon, most likely at KTPA, KPIE, and KSRQ. No other
aviation impacts expected.
Strong high pressure near Bermuda ridges west-southwest over the
area. Winds will remain east-southeast at 10-15 knots early
Saturday, then becoming variable at 5-10 knots by Saturday evening.
Winds will be remain variable at 5-10 knots for the start of next
week through mid week as another area of high pressure sets up in
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. No other marine impacts
Relative humidity values will remain above any critical fire weather
threshold through the period as high pressure advects abundant
moisture over the area. Winds are expected to remain below 15 mph as
well and no other fire weather concerns are anticipated through the
weekend and into next week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 81 65 81 64 / 10 10 10 0
FMY 83 63 83 62 / 30 30 10 10
GIF 83 62 83 62 / 10 10 20 10
SRQ 80 62 79 63 / 10 10 10 0
BKV 82 59 83 58 / 10 0 10 10
SPG 80 66 80 65 / 10 10 10 0
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka