Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 301335
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE...

.UPDATE... ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA THANKS TO THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER THE FL STRAITS. AT
THE MOMENT RAINFALL IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RAIN
SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TODAY... WILL MAINTAIN THE 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
WILL DECIDE BY THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE
EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE HIGHLY
SATURATED SOILS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TO OCCUR NEAR STREAMS OR IN
URBAN AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION TO LAL WHERE LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IF
SHOWERS/STORMS SETTLE OVER A TAF SITES BUT MVFR SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL WITH EXTENDED POCKETS OF VFR.


&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTHWARD
TODAY PUSHING IN EXCESS TROPICAL MOISTURE.  RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY BUT THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
FURTHER INLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE AND
HAZARD CRITERIA TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL WAVES LIFTS NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  89  77  88  78 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
MARINE...99
DECISION SUPPORT...99


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