Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 280153
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER REVIEWING LATEST HI-RES WIND GUIDANCE AND RECENT OBS...HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...VALID UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...LINGERING SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS SRN ZONES WITH FEW
EMBEDDED SHRA IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION
ASSOC W/ VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TSTMS REMAIN ACROSS DEEP S
FL AND KEYS. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE CLEARING LINE ON THE SAT
ACROSS NATURE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE
PAN HANDLE WHERE SECOND DEW POINT GRADIENT AND WIND SURGE EXISTS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OUT OF THE REGION AND WILL BE SE OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL USHER MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DID HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO
SLOW PROGRESSION A BIT AND KEEP HIGH POPS IN FAR SOUTH THROUGH
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE IN FORECAST AND NOW OCCURRING AT
42036. BAYS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE SCA...BUT MIGHT GET CLOSE AND
WILL BUMP WINDS UP A BIT BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE (ESP TAMPA BAY).

AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS CEN AND SW FL WILL IMPROVE AS COLD FRONT
BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AND PERSIST FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CARLISLE/GITTINGER



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