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000
FXUS62 KTBW 301843
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
243 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TO HOLD IN PLACE
KEEPING A VERY DRY MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR LATE JULY. COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER THE S CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NATURE COAST AND
MID 60S IN CENTRAL FL. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR AROUND EXPECT WELL
BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS SHOULD BE...NOT AS WARM...AS PREVIOUS LOWS AS WELL. HIGHER
20-30 PERCENT POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO STALLED FRONT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE.

.MID TERM (FRIDAY)...
BY FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST
TO BE OVER 2 INCHES WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO KICK
OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WHICH FOCUSES AFTERNOON STORMS ON OUR SIDE OF THE STATE.
ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT ALLOWING A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
IN THE AREA PROVIDING EXTRA LIFT. TIMING IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SO
KEEPING THE FORECAST SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOME A BIT DRIER WITH A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TSRA IN SOUTHERN AREAS NOW MOVING INLAND.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS REST OF THE AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN SLIGHT THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
BUT MIN RH VALUES TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES WHILE FUELS
REMAIN MOIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  76  90 /   0  10  10  60
FMY  76  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  60
GIF  74  95  74  93 /  10  20  10  70
SRQ  74  90  76  90 /  10  10  10  50
BKV  67  93  68  93 /   0  10  10  50
SPG  79  90  79  89 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS