Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 282001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AS OF 3 PM TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA
HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE THE VOLUME OF RAIN TOTALS THAT
HAVE MANAGED TO ACCUMULATE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
TOTALING AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS OF
UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES OVER PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE...THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OVER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS STILL A VERY HIGH 2.21
INCHES...AND THE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BAND
OF 2 PLUS INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND...MEANING THAT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER ON
A PARTICULAR SPOT IN A SHORT ABOUT OF TIME.

THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL
AVAILABLE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD. AS
SUCH...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TO WATCH HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS IN PINELLAS...WESTERN PASCO...AND WESTERN
HERNANDO COUNTIES...AS ANY MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR SO A DAY WILL
EXACERBATE THE EXISTING FLOODING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE
STATE/ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THIS PATTERN WILL MEANDER IN
LOCATION...BUT REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE BEST FOCUS FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOUTHERN
HALF WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK
OFFSHORE. MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS NO MORE THAN 3 FEET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TODAY HAS SO FAR NOT PRODUCED THE EXTREME RAINFALL TOTALS
THAT WERE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS IN
PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES THAT SAW AS MUCH AS AROUND 2
INCHES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
HEAVY RAIN...WITH FURTHER FLOODING. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY GENERALLY SAW AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS...AND THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY IS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE FROM AROUND
MANATEE COUNTY NORTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLOOD WATCH FROM MANATEE
COUNTY TO LEE COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z THIS
EVENING. FROM HILLSBOROUGH/PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO
COUNTY...THE WATCH IS EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS...MOST
NOTABLY...THE ANCLOTE AT ELFERS THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT IS FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ON THE CYPRESS CREEK...LITTLE MANATEE RIVER...AND
MYAKKA RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  88 /  50  60  50  60
FMY  78  90  77  89 /  10  30  30  40
GIF  76  89  75  89 /  30  60  30  60
SRQ  78  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  40  60
SPG  78  87  79  88 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND SARASOTA.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD


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