Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 171342
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
942 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...A SOUTHWARD SAGGING
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW`S 2+ INCHES VIA 12Z RAOB
DATA) IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY EXPECT THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND RAIN AREAS TO CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH
THE EXITING SHORT WAVE FEATURE WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN IN THE WAKE OF THE THESE FEATURES. WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS
WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN BY A
FEW DEGREES IN THE GRIDS...BUT OVERALL CHANGES DOES NOT WARRANT A
ZONE UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PREVAILING AND TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE THESE
CONDITIONS DEPICTED AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS WHERE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA NOW EXIST...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
INCLUDE BRIEF TEMPO AT THE SOUTHWESTERN TERMINAL SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD. OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTION VFR IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE 6 TO 8
KNOT RANGE IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATED OFF THE PINELLAS
AND PASCO COUNTIES COAST. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
ENGLEWOOD AT THE MOMENT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ANY TIME
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
BEACH CAMS SHOW CHOPPY SURF AND WHITECAPS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





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