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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 252021
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
321 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT...GENERALLY 50 PERCENT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AND BECOME GUSTY AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS
WELL...AND THEN REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
CLEAR OUT. WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP
CURRENTS...HIGH SURF...AND LAKE WIND CONCERNS FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY FREE FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A LARGE RIDGE OUT WEST
WITH A DEEP TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
TO START THE PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
SWING THROUGH THE EAST COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST SO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS REALLY JUST
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE EVEN COOLER...FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S
SOUTH...AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE AS DRY...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FUTURE UPDATES INTRODUCE A POP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
START TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENTLY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH MENTIONED...BUT SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BE GONE BY 15Z FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TONIGHT. EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
FORECAST WATERS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOWS WIND AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
TRANSPORT WINDS IN PLACE...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AND SOILS ARE MOIST. NO CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  65  48  64 /  50  20   0   0
FMY  57  70  51  69 /  20  50   0   0
GIF  52  65  45  65 /  50  30   0   0
SRQ  56  67  51  66 /  50  30   0   0
BKV  50  62  41  63 /  50  10   0   0
SPG  58  64  53  65 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
National Weather Service National Headquarters
