Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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412
FXUS62 KTBW 300739
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD TROUGH SPRAWLED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE RIDGING REACHED FROM THE GULF REGION TO
THE UPPER MID-WEST. SURFACE - A LOW WAS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH TO MEXICO AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED IN ACROSS FL TO THE
GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH RE-LOCATES DOWN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILE A LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD...BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH
AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT GETTING STRUNG OUT BEHIND
IT...THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTH TX. THE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER FL AND MUCH OF THE GULF.

THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY JUST NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHWARD SUN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONLY IN THE FAR NORTH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH AN AXIS NORTH
OF THE AREA...WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED AND PERMIT A SEA BREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT FORECAST.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS EACH DAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...DAILY SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH FAIRLY MODEST COVERAGE.
WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...EXPECT THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO OCCUR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE
SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO CONVERGE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GREATER STORM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH
RATHER STOUT RIDGING ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90S DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE
ACROSS THE CONUS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AT
LEAST WEAK SEABREEZE ACTIVITY SHOULD FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BY THURSDAY...THE INITIAL FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE
REGION...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS A POWERFUL UPPER
CYCLONE INTENSIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND...A
SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SURGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AREAS OF MIST ARE EXPECTED BUT NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS. WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS SHIFT TO ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BENIGN.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TO MID WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND ONLY MODEST
WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  72  89  72 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  89  69  89  71 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  92  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  90  67  88  66 /  20  20  10   0
SPG  87  72  87  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN



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