Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 290900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

...FOGGY START TO THE WORK WEEK...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED SURFACE MOISTURE TO SIT OVER
FLORIDA...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOG SITUATION USING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO ASSESS POTENTIAL NEED FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING. AFTER
SUNRISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE THOUGH SOME
SEA FOG COULD REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

THE FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AIDED IN PART BY A WEAK SEA BREEZE. MANY AREAS WILL REACH
INTO THE 80S TODAY...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER LEVY COUNTY
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER 70S. NOT MUCH SPREAD
BETWEEN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE SHORT TERM.

OVERNIGHT...MORE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT FAVORING A WET SOLUTION...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES MAKING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAST MOVING AND NOT HAVE MUCH
ACCESS TO RICH MOISTURE SOURCES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE MID 70S IN LEVY COUNTY AND INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY/...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL U/L RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OVER FLORIDA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN
WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AS A STRONG U/L
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXTEND NORTH THROUGH ALASKA.
DOWNSTREAM...A POSITIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.  ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE
WILL DIG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WITH AN U/L LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ESTABLISHING A STRONG OMEGA
BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL UNDER CUT
THE EAST PACIFIC BLOCK WITH PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW INTO THE
CONUS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM FLOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH STRONG
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE U/L LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L FLOW WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INDUCED BY THE U/L LOW EJECTING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.  STRONG RETURN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN
THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ADVECTING WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW MORNING CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR. VFR WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEA FOG WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD FOR MARINERS. BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BRIEFLY NEAR
SCEC ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG THAT
LASTS INTO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT...FOG
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  67  77  61 /  10  10  30  10
FMY  82  66  81  65 /  10  10  20  10
GIF  81  65  79  61 /  10  10  30  10
SRQ  78  65  77  62 /  10  10  30  10
BKV  80  63  78  55 /  10  20  30  10
SPG  77  66  75  62 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY





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