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000
FXUS62 KTBW 171401
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1001 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Morning water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows ridging
extending northward into the southwest U.S. with broad troughing over
the east. One shortwave within this trough has moved off the New
England coast, with a weak piece of energy lingering over the
southeast. At the surface, a cold front is still slowly dropping
southward across the northern peninsula with high pressure, along
with cooler and drier air, building in behind it over the southeast.
Regional radars this morning have shown a leftover area of convection
across the Tampa Bay region that has now all but dissipated into a
smaller area of light rain with just a few showers noted over the
east coast.

For the rest of today, the cold front will continue to try and drop
southeastward, but will lose momentum as the main trough continues to
lift out. With surface high pressure to the north, we will keep a
northeasterly wind in place today, with a scattering of showers and a
few thunderstorms generally moving in from the Atlantic and east
coast earlier in the day toward the interior and then west coast this
evening. Drier air looks to intrude into at least part of the Nature
Coast region, so those areas will have very low rain chances. Our
position relative to the boundary will also keep rather cloudy
conditions over the region, which will help to hold down high
temperatures by a few degrees.

Made a few adjustments to PoPs for today based on latest model runs
and current trends, but no other changes were made.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few leftover showers around Tampa Bay could affect nearby terminals
briefly over the next hour or so, but otherwise the main issue for
this morning will be periodic MVFR/IFR cigs. Will handle these with
TEMPO groups for now. A few showers will be possible later this
afternoon and evening, generally moving from the northeast toward the
southwest and will keep VCSH in the forecast. Winds will be
northeasterly through the period, with some gusts in the 15-20 knot
range this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Cautionary to near-advisory level winds will persist across the
northern waters today. High pressure will build over the southeast
through the rest of the day and tonight, with northeast winds
increasing near advisory level across the rest of the forecast
waters. This will lead to hazardous boating conditions across the
region through much of the week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  82  70  85  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  85  72  86  71 /  30  20  30  10
GIF  82  70  83  69 /  30  10  40  10
SRQ  84  72  86  71 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  80  68  84  68 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  81  71  83  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/Carlisle