Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 051312
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS
LARGELY CLEAR AT THIS TIME...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ENSURE
THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOLAR HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY. THE 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING IS SHOWING THAT THE MID LEVELS REMAIN COOL AND ARE A BIT
DRIER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND PEAKING OVER THE INTERIOR BETWEEN 21 AND
00Z. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VISIBILITY AT KFMY AND KRSW DUE TO SMOKE SHOULD DISPERSE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SURFACE HEATS UP. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN HOLD ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER AROUND 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS STORMS PASS INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN BY AROUND 00Z AS STORMS DISSIPATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  91  78 /  40  20  50  30
FMY  93  75  93  76 /  50  20  50  20
GIF  94  75  93  75 /  60  30  70  30
SRQ  91  76  91  76 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  94  73  92  73 /  50  20  50  30
SPG  92  78  91  79 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD


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