Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 020305
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER SKY COVER IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AS SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS
INDICATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. NEAR 9 PM RADAR WAS
INDICATING A LIGHT SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN TETON COUNTY WHICH WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT EXPECT THE SHOWER TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY.
FORECASTING SMOKE IS DIFFICULT. ADDED SOME SMOKE FROM GREAT FALLS
TO HELENA AND CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM AREAS OF SMOKE TO PATCHY
SMOKE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AS LOW
AS THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE DAY. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION
UPDATED 2347Z.

HAVE GONE WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE
PLAINS SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF THERE
IS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL 04Z. FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MONTANA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 601 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 020001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
601 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL MT...SO HAVE DECREASED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...SO
LEFT LOW POPS IN THIS REGION. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK CANADIAN COOL FRONT IS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ONE STRONG STORM IS
CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE FORT BENTON AREA AT 255 PM. THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT THE REGION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE VERY WARM/HOT IN MANY AREAS.
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LITTLE BELT
MOUNTAINS...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ADDED SOME AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE HAVRE/HARLEM AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MIGHT BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST SHOULD
VISIBILITIES START TO BE REDUCED. BRUSDA

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW CANADA LATE THIS
WEEK THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS AB/SK THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH BC FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP PUSH A
MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAINING AMONG MODELS
WITH REGARD TO TIMING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH
GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING. COOLER
AIRMASS MOVES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SW MT
SUNDAY WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
AREAS NEAR THE ID/WY BORDER. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINING A
MORE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY REBUILDS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US. BOTH SCENARIOS
WOULD BRING WARMING CONDITIONS THOUGH THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE
SLOWER. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  85  58  92 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  52  83  54  90 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  62  91  61  96 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  88  52  91 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  43  80  43  82 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  54  88  54  89 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  55  87  57  94 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  82  57  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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