Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 171730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
The morning forecast is on track...with no updates.
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the southern portions
of the region today...as an upper level disturbance moves through.
Afternoon highs will generally be quite a bit above normal...with
highs mostly in the 80s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weakening upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will
allow a series of weak weather disturbances to move NE across SW and
Central MT in SW flow aloft through tomorrow afternoon. High level
cloud-cover will spread NE into the region early this afternoon with
a few isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/early
evening, mainly south of a line from KGTF to KLWT. Winds will remain
generally light through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 506 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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