Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 302301
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
500 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...Cold front has now slowed and is
currently just north of Helena. As this front stalls across the
Rocky Mountain Front...and the upper level low pushes across NE
MT late this afternoon through this evening...showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to fill back into the region...still
mainly north and east of a line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs to Lewistown. Gusty northwest winds will also be possible
with the passage of this system through tonight and into Tuesday.
In addition...a few very isolated showers and thunderstorms are
also possible in the Bozeman area through this evening. By Tuesday
morning the upper low pushes into ND...with wrap around moisture
lingering into eastern portions of the CWA and producing areas of
scattered showers. For western and southwestern portions of the
CWA...high pressure begins to build across the region...bringing
clearing skies and warming conditions. All precipitation should
exit the eastern CWA by Tuesday evening. Ridge of high pressure
will build back across the region for Wednesday. This will return
dry conditions...and warmer ...with near to slightly above normal
readings. Anglin

Wednesday night through Monday...The period begins with a
brisk westerly flow aloft. Ensemble solutions reveal a bit of spread
amid this pattern as shortwave energy crosses southwest Canada.
Isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out, mainly over higher
terrain. Breezy west winds are expected to develop Thursday
afternoon and evening as a surface trough moves away to the east. By
Friday the ensemble solutions tighten up as a broad and nearly
stationary ridge strengthens over the western United States. This
ridge will maintain well above average temperatures through Monday.
Ensemble solutions finally begin to diverge late in the period as a
trough moves into northern California, creating a slight chance for
showers over southwest Montana early next week. PN

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2300Z.

An upper level low pressure system is moving into Eastern Montana
and most precipitation remaining over Central and Southwest Montana
is across the northern and northeastern portions of the region. The
northeast portions, including KHVR and KLWT will keep a chance of
showers through the night. Showers will continue to linger but
gradually move east Tuesday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
precipitation tonight. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through
the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  62  42  76 /  50  20   0   0
CTB  38  62  40  74 /  30  10   0   0
HLN  42  66  44  80 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  36  64  38  77 /  10  20   0   0
WEY  32  57  34  66 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  37  66  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  45  62  42  74 /  60  40  10   0
LWT  41  58  40  72 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.