Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 311825
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY.  THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF MT/ND AND
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AIDING IN
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WITH CONTINUED HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 10-20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER GUSTS.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...SEE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 07/31/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0431 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
AT THE SURFACE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...VERTICAL MIXING OF ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
NORTHERN MONTANA MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON.

...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON...
WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FEATURES TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...LOCAL TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS FROM DIURNAL
HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.  ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORMS /BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 IN/...DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS WILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION AND LIMIT SURFACE
RAINFALL...SUPPORTING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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