Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 231931

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


Overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous
outlook. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
again on Friday across portions of the southern Plains. The critical
area has been modified slightly based on latest model guidance to
extend further north into southwestern portions of the TX Panhandle
as well as further south toward the Rio Grande River. A very dry
airmass with PW values around 0.10 inches will be in place and RH
values will bottom out in the single digits to 13 percent. While
temperatures will be cooler than on Thursday, deep boundary layer
mixing will allow for strong, gusty northwest winds to persist in
this dry environment. Otherwise, no other major changes were made.

..Leitman.. 02/23/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

A deep cyclone will track from portions of the Central States to the
Great Lakes region, with an associated cold front advancing
eastward/southeastward across portions of the South-Central and
Southeastern States. An influx of drier air into parts of the
South-Central States behind the front, amidst enhanced winds, will
result in fire-weather potential across portions of the southern
Great Plains and westward across southern NM.

...Portions of the southern Great Plains and westward across
southern NM...
Diurnal heating and areas of downslope-flow-enhanced warming are
forecast to offset modest cold advection behind the cold front --
supporting diurnal RH reductions. The influx of drier post-frontal
air will also support these RH reductions. Meanwhile, enhanced
low/midlevel flow trailing to the west-southwest of the deeper
cyclone will support enhanced surface winds, as vertical mixing
strengthens during the afternoon.

Within the Critical area, westerly to northwesterly winds of 20-25
mph are forecast to combine with RH around 9-15 percent amidst dry
fuels in support of critical fire-weather conditions.

Across the surrounding Elevated area -- over a large part of TX and
southern OK, extending into parts of eastern/southern NM -- westerly
to northerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. These winds are
forecast to combine with RH from the lower/middle teens to the
middle 20s (lowest readings west and south, highest readings
northeast). While briefly critical fire-weather conditions could
occur -- especially across parts of the middle/lower Rio Grande
Valley region -- the general tendency for stronger flow aloft to
advance east of the lower RH should minimize the critical
fire-weather risk.

...Please see for graphic product...

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