Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 291841
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z


...PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN INTO E-CNTRL ID AND FAR SWRN MT...AND THE ONGOING RISK
AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE FAR SERN ORE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...FEATURING A VERY DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
AMIDST PW VALUES OF 0.6-0.8...WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE WRN/NRN FRINGE OF RICHER MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...AND MARGINAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
LIKELY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC.

...PARTS OF NRN ORE AND SRN/CNTRL WA...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
NW IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF
ORE/WA...AND WITHIN A WEAK DOWNSLOPE REGIME IMMEDIATELY E OF THE
CASCADE RANGE FROM CNTRL WA SWD INTO N-CNTRL ORE. A MODEST NOCTURNAL
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD MIX SUFFICIENTLY DURING
THE DAY TO RESULT IN RH VALUES OF 15-20 MPH...AMIDST SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH...DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

..ROGERS.. 06/29/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0347 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
WEST COAST. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY SHARP IMPULSE WILL TRANSLATE FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES.

...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
AS A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND
SOUTHERN ORE THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS TO PROMOTE ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.6-0.8 INCHES
AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL ENCOURAGE EFFICIENT
EVAPORATION OF PRECIPITATION CORES...RESULTING IN LITTLE WETTING
RAINFALL. AS SUCH...LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONSIDERABLY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE IGNITION...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL FAVOR
RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND ERRATIC BEHAVIOR.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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