Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 011718
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA. AT LEAST BRIEF/SPOTTY ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER WIND-PRONE AREAS
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THE ELEVATED AREA
HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO REFLECT
THIS LOCALIZED/BRIEF THREAT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 10/01/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0325 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER THE CNTRL UNITED STATES...AND
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONG EMBEDDED IMPULSE TRACKING FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE W COAST VICINITY. IN
RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED/ENHANCED ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...BENEATH SUBSIDENT
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ENCOURAGE THE MAINTENANCE OF
DEEP DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS.

...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
AS SFC RIDGING IS MAINTAINED/ENHANCED ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN...THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ON D2/THU COMPARED TO D1/WED. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE SRN CA COAST AND CNTRL NV ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR
8-9 MB.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MODIFIED-COOL-AIR/HIGHER-PRESSURE SURGE INTO
THE WRN MOJAVE DESERT/ANTELOPE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AN AREA
OF STRONG ENELY TO ELY SFC WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AND CNTRL/SRN/ERN VENTURA COUNTY. OWING TO THE
BACKGROUND TOPOGRAPHY...THIS PARTICULAR MESOSCALE-FORCING REGIME
WILL LEND A PROCLIVITY FOR TERRAIN-CHANNELED FLOW TO BOLSTER SFC
WIND SPEEDS. IN THESE AREAS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS REACHING 35-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY -- LOCALLY STRONGER THROUGH
FAVORED PASSES/CANYONS -- WHICH IS BACKED BY THE LATEST 4-KM NAM
OUTPUT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM 12Z THU TO 20Z
THU...WITH WINDS WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. AFTER POOR RH RECOVERY WED NIGHT...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF THU INTO THU NIGHT AS
DOWNSLOPE-ENHANCED WARMING AND DRYING CONTINUE...WHILE RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR FOR THU NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S ON THU...BREEDING DIURNAL RH REDUCTIONS.
AND...WITH DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS IN PLACE...A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN
INCLUDED UPON COLLABORATION WITH THE OXNARD CA WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN
CA...AN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER AREA IS IN EFFECT FOR D2/THU. WHILE RH
VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WILL BE LIKELY IN
THESE AREAS...A RELATIVELY WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PREVENT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM REACHING/EXCEEDING 20 MPH ON ANY
MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. REGARDLESS...THE COMBINATION OF NELY
TO ELY WINDS AROUND 15-19 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THE LOW/VERY LOW
RH ALONG WITH DRY FUELS WILL GENERATE AN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER RISK.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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