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FNUS22 KWNS 231936
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NCNTRL MT...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL WY...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST /SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW/.  SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NCNTRL MT.  SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT THE SURFACE
/AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT/ ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
WESTERLIES /ABOVE 20 MPH/ APPEARS VERY LIKELY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND PRODUCES MORE RAIN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAN THE LATEST NAM...GFS...AND SREF /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE CRITICAL AREA/.  MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE
UPDATES TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED.

..JIRAK.. 07/23/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ENEWD FROM NE WA/SE BC ACROSS SRN ALBERTA
AND INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE PERIOD. THIS CONTINUED EWD
PROGRESS WILL DAMPEN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY WHILE A
LEE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE LEE TROUGH
/WRN SD/. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
PUSH ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MT.

...CNTRL/ERN MT...MOST OF WY...S-CNTRL/SE ID...NE/CNTRL/SW
UT...E-CNTRL/SRN NV...
A BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVERLAPS WITH THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE NRN EXTENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE WARMEST AND DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS E-CNTRL/SRN NV NEWD INTO SRN WY WHERE MIN RH VALUES FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FROM 20 TO 25 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS CNTRL WY WITH A RESULTANT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SNAKE RIVER PLAINS.

FARTHER N /CNTRL AND ERN MT/...FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY DIFFERENCE
IN SUGGESTED FRONTAL TIMING AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. NAM FORECAST IS
FASTER AND TAKES THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN MT BY 21Z...LIMITING
POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE LEE OF THE ABSAROKA RANGE. GFS IS
SLOWER WITH A FORECAST DEWPOINT 25 DEG F LOWER THAN THE NAM AT BIL.
AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A CRITICAL DELINEATE WITH
THIS FORECAST. IN CONTRAST... CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS HIGH ACROSS N-CNTRL MT WITH A THREAT AREA DELINEATED
ACCORDINGLY.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...