Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 171649
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN AZ AND NWRN NM CONTINUES
BASED ON THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO CNTRL/SRN
WY...LOCALIZED AREAS OF MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LEE TROUGHING BOLSTERS THE BACKGROUND
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A
DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD PREVENT A GREATER FIRE WEATHER RISK FROM
EVOLVING OVER THE PLAINS...WHEREAS THE LACK OF FAVORABLY DRY FUELS
FOR FIRE SPREAD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK FARTHER WEST INTO WY.

..COHEN.. 04/17/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0354 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE SFC FEATURES AND THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LARGELY DISPLACED FROM AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW
RH...LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVERALL...THOUGH ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SRN TROUGH ACROSS PARTS
OF NM/AZ.

...ERN AZ...NM...
GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM. THE GREATEST RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FROM NERN AZ INTO NWRN NM...WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN
BELOW 0.50 INCHES DURING THE DAY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
WELL-MIXED AND DRY. FORECAST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM
DELINEATION IN THIS AREA.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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