Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 312000
SWODY1
SPC AC 311959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

...20Z UPDATE...
FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED.

..GUYER.. 01/31/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

...SWRN U.S./TX...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.  AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION HAS EVOLVED OVER THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS AND ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF TX...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD.  HAVE INCREASED THUNDER PROBABILITIES INTO NERN TX AS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 800MB...LATE
TONIGHT...COULD YIELD MUCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG...ATTAINING HEIGHTS
NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

ELSEWHERE...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTION CONTINUE.  PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG A
CORRIDOR INTO FAR WEST TX.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
TO AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.



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