Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 301302
SWODY1
SPC AC 301300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS
SWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...OZARKS AND
THE OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING -- INCLUDING TWO DISTINCT CYCLONES -- WILL
RESIDE OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGING
PREVAILS OVER THE ERN STATES.  THE FIRST LOW -- CENTERED OVER NWRN
KS ATTM -- IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN KS TOWARD SERN
NEB...WHILE THE SECOND -- CROSSING THE SRN NV/CA BORDER AREA --
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO AZ.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NOW RESIDING OVER NERN KS IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...AS IT CROSSES MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT ALONG A W-E WARM FRONT.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWD ACROSS ERN OK
INTO ERN PORTIONS OF TX WILL MOVE EWD INTO MO/AR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME AS THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW WEAKENS.

...LOWER MO/MID MS/OH VALLEYS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED/ONGOING
SEVERE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX AND ADJACENT SWRN LA.

THE AIRMASS E OF THIS ACTIVE/ONGOING WRN GULF COAST CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH LIMITED HEATING...RESULTING IN
CONTINUATION -- AND SOME EVENTUAL INTENSIFICATION/EXPANSION -- OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR IN THE WAKE OF
ONGOING STORMS ALONG THE MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN AMPLE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FARTHER E...MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER INTO THE LOWER
AND MID OH AND TN VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY HINDER DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONDITIONAL UPON AMPLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING.  ATTM...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS EVOLUTION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.  SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS/GLEASON.. 04/30/2016

$$



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