Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 231242
SPC AC 231241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z


A few thunderstorms are possible today across the Middle Atlantic
region, while isolated storms may also develop from California into
the southern Great Basin.

A deep occluded low over the Carolinas this morning will move slowly
east-northeastward to just off the Mid Atlantic coast by this
evening.  In the interim, a few elevated thunderstorms will be
possible this morning over VA, and some low-topped convection may
develop this afternoon in association with the cold core low over
eastern NC.  South of the deep cyclone, a cold front has already
crossed FL.  A few convective showers will be possible today across
central/south FL, though warming midlevel/equilibrium level
temperatures by midday should limit the potential for lightning
production.  Farther west, one midlevel trough is already
progressing inland over CA and the Great Basin.  A few low-topped
thunderstorms will be possible along the CA coast as a broad area of
cellular convection spreads inland with the midlevel thermal trough,
and as the closed low off the OR coast rotates southward.  Isolated
lightning strikes will also be possible in the steep lapse rate
environment on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet.

..Thompson/Peters.. 01/23/2017

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