Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 211930
SWODY1
SPC AC 211929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE ROCKIES...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
TEXAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MIDDLE-ATLANTIC REGION.

...DISCUSSION..

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

..DIAL.. 10/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO SE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.  THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER LAND
IN THIS PATTERN...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY AND THE RISK FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE
DEVELOPING MIDLEVEL LOW.

ELSEWHERE...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ENEWD FROM
ID TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY BY LATE TONIGHT.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR WIDELY-SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM SW TX INTO NM WITHIN THE
LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SRN STREAM
TROUGH.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE NRN FRINGE
OF THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS S TX AND S FL TODAY.




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