Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 301240
SWODY1
SPC AC 301238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SRN AL...SW
GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AFTER WEAKENING OF MORNING STORMS...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY...AS WELL AS ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

...EXTREME SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA TODAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TO THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST BY ABOUT 21Z...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SWD
ACROSS GA/AL/MS.  ONGOING STORMS IN A BAND THIS MORNING FROM E
CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL AND N GA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID
MORNING.  JUST S OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 60 F IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD APPROACH
1000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AREA WILL BE SOURCES FOR ASCENT TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM 18-21Z.  THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF NE EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR NEAR OR
JUST AFTER 18Z...LEAVING THE REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONT AS THE ONLY
IDENTIFIABLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDLEVEL WAVE
PASSAGE...LEAVING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE BUOYANCY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT LITTLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS.  WILL RETAIN LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES IN CASE ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORM NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY ALONG THE RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

...ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT...
A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX...ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE RETURN MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS TX.  CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD INVOF SE OK.  WELL TO THE NW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL REACH THE PAC NW COAST BY 09-12Z.  STEEPENING LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD SUPPORT THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/30/2015




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