Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 140733
SWODY2
SPC AC 140732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
GULF COAST AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL
REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC AND SLIGHT RISK HEADER

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL AREA MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BASE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SERN STATES MONDAY AND THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SFC LOW INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY EARLY MONDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...REACHING THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE END OF PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND BY 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD THROUGH
THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO THE NRN GULF. A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS MONDAY EVENING.

...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ERN U.S.
SUNDAY MAINTAINING INFLUX OF CP AIR OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF. AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MODIFIED CP AIR WILL RETURN
NWD ALONG A SLY LLJ THROUGH THE WRN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND EWD INTO
THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST AREA MONDAY. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -16 TO -18C
AT 500 MB RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION... BUT THE NAM CAPE APPEARS
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT MUCAPE TO 500-700 J/KG...WITH
GREATEST INSTABILITY LIKELY NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE AT LEAST MODEST
DIABATIC WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION MAY UNDERGO SOME
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE AS WELL AS ALONG
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. TREND HAS BEEN FOR MODELS TO ADVERTISE A
WEAKER TROUGH WITH RESULTING WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY EARLY VEERING OF THE LLJ. NEVERTHELESS...0-6 KM SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT /GENERALLY 35-45 KT 0-6 KM/ TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND...SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

COASTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INLAND LATER MONDAY AS SHALLOW WEDGE
FRONT GRADUALLY ERODES FROM THE SE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
EWD-MIGRATING SLY LLJ. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS
AS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR MOVES INLAND WHERE A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING
THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

..DIAL.. 02/14/2016

$$


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