Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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027
ACUS02 KWNS 031722
SWODY2
SPC AC 031721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY.

...WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARDS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SUFFICIENT TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS. THE
RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER GENERALLY REMAINING OFFSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE
BROWNSVILLE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS NEAR MOST OF THE TEXAS GULF
COAST.

A SEPARATE NORTHWARD INTRUSION OF THE WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE DEGREE OF WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
THAT CAN OCCUR...BUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING...BEFORE A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

..ROGERS.. 12/03/2016

$$



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