Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 021724
SWODY2
SPC AC 021723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN OH EWD ACROSS
PA...NY...AND INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
STATES WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. NEUTRAL HEIGHT
TENDENCIES WILL EXIST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY...WITH PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY FROM NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH HEIGHT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A SFC TROUGH TRAILING SWD ACROSS NY AND INTO
THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

TO THE W...SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL
OCCUR WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR AND INCREASED LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS.

...NERN STATES...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SERN QUEBEC EARLY
IN THE DAY...PERHAPS AFFECTING FAR NRN MAINE WITH A FEW WEAK STORMS.
OTHER EARLY STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTO OH...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL
TAKE PLACE WITH HEATING ALONG THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ACTIVITY AND EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS PA AND NY BY 21Z THEN INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 21-03Z.
LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WITH SELY SURFACE WINDS. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG...WINDS WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DIURNAL LEE-TROUGHING...ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE
TOPPING THE SRN PLAINS RIDGE FROM SRN CO/NM INTO THE PANHANDLES.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE THUS EXPECTED WITH SLOW-MOVING
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...AIDED BY AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
THE EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 08/02/2015




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