Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 300546
SWODY2
SPC AC 300545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH THE TN/OH
VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
PORTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

...DISCUSSION...

CNTRL HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.  500MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 60KT
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS MO INTO SRN IL/INDIANA DURING THE
PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  WHILE DEEP-LAYER
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DECIDEDLY WLY...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
SUPPORTS ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ALONG
SYNOPTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  GUSTY WINDS/HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAIL FROM
THE BOOTHEEL OF MO...SWWD INTO SCNTRL TX.  BROAD SWLY FLOW AT MID
LEVELS WILL ENHANCE SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING
APPEARS TO BE NEUTRAL IN THE ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE SHORT
WAVE-TROUGHS.  BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  OF SOME
CONCERN WILL BE TSTM ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES ACROSS SWRN TX/NRN
MEXICO...AIDED IN PART BY TOPOGRAPHY.  SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR
SUPERCELLS AND STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER NRN
MEXICO COULD SPREAD INTO SCNTRL TX.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONGEST SFC
HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MEXICO WHICH SHOULD
HELP INITIATE STORMS.  HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 04/30/2016

$$



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