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000
ACUS02 KWNS 091719
SWODY2
SPC AC 091717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST MON DEC 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. ON
TUESDAY. VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION WILL UNDERGO SHEAR WITHIN THE BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH AS
IT EJECTS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC A POLAR FRONT
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...FL PANHANDLE...

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED /AOB 300 J/KG MUCAPE/
PRIMARILY DUE TO VERY WEAK /AOB 5.5 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. WITH EXCEPTION OF SHALLOW FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...FORCING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK. MOST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY CONFINED TO BELOW 500 MB WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. A
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SRN GA
WHERE LOW 70S NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER
BUOYANCY AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...MAINLY WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

..DIAL.. 12/09/2013