Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITHIN 75 NM NW OF A 1006 MB LOW
LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING W
FROM THE LOW ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN SECTIONS BELOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG
41W/42W FROM 8N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO
7N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 69W/70W FROM THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA TO THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW AND
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N21W TO 7N25W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W TO 6N42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 42W-
48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS E GEORGIA INTO THE N GULF NEAR THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA ALONG 26N89W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS COVERING
THE GULF. LINGERING LOW/MID MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W. A SURFACE
RIDGE HAS BUILT S OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER TEXAS.
THIS IS LEAVING THE GULF UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE
AIR THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFT E
ACROSS THE N GULF ON SUN REACHING NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SUN
NIGHT AND LIFTING E OF THE AREA ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 22N80W TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE
FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 16N80W INCLUDING JAMAICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS TO THE E ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY AND ANCHORED NEAR
16N83W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E BEFORE
STALLING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 17N81W EARLY SUN THEN MOVE W ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON AND TUE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON AND TUE.
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
APPROACHING THE ISLAND. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
HAITI EARLY SUN AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND SUN THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A 1006 MB LOW...IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE...
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT NEAR 31N58W ALONG 28N62W
27N70W TO THE SAME 1006 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 280 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 70W AND
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 68W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM NE OF THE FRONT W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W ALONG 23N37W INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW
IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 29N30W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT AND THE E ATLC SURFACE LOW
ANCHORED NW OF THE AZORES. THE 1006 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY THEN WILL MOVE NE OF
THE AREA TONIGHT DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E TO A POSITION FROM
31N65W TO E CUBA. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N59W ALONG 28N65W
TO HAITI LATE SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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