382
AXNT20 KNHC 151030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jul 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
Recent satellite-derived scatterometer wind data indicated that
the area of low pressure located just offshore of the east coast
of Florida is gradually becoming better defined, with a 1014 mb
low center analyzed near 29N79.5W. However, the shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized as upper level
northerly winds are inducing wind shear across the area. This
system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula
today through tonight, then reach the northeastern Gulf by the
middle part of this week. Environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week as
the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy
rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of
this week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development during the next 48 hours and also during the next 7
days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 20N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 06N to 09.5N between 48W and 55W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 63W, south of 20N and moving
westward at around 15 kt. The wave is enhancing the rainfall in NE
South America, while a small cluster of scattered moderate
convection follows the wave from 11N to 14N between 58W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20.5N17W and continues southwestward to 10N27W
and to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 06N51W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is observed from 10N to 12.5N E of
18W, and from 04.5N to 08.5N between 28W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Bands of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue
across the eastern Gulf waters indirectly associated with the low
pressure system off eastern Florida (AL93). This active convection
has continued throughout the night and is moving west and
southwestward away from the Florida coast. Mariners in the area
can expect gusty winds, heavy downpours, frequent lightning
strikes and suddenly higher seas. Except for a few showers across
northwest portions, generally dry conditions are present
elsewhere. At the surface, a 1020 mb high pressure centered south
of Louisiana near 27N90.5W and supports moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and moderate seas to 5 ft south of a line from SE Texas to
NE Yucatan. In the rest of the basin, outside of the areas of
convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure across the north-central basin
will drift slowly W-NW and settle across the NW Gulf through Thu.
A 1014 mb low pressure is just offshore of central Florida near
29N79.5W and is forecast to move westward across Florida later
today and tonight, and eventually emerge over the northeastern
Gulf late Tue or early Wed. Environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week as
this system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf.
Regardless, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
with strong gusty winds, will accompany this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper level trough across eastern Cuba and the Windward
Passage continues to support scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and across the Windward
Passage. No significant convection is noted elsewhere across the
basin this morning. Surface high pressure north of the area along
29N is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean south of 16N and across the Gulf of Honduras.
These winds are sustaining moderate to rough seas, peaking near 9
ft off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and
moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. Saharan Air
accompanies a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean, where
a few showers are seen across the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast, a weak ridge along 29N and E of 75W will
gradually build westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf
of America through Sat. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas over
the south-central Caribbean will expand across most of the
central portions of the basin Wed through Sat as the Atlantic high
pressure shifts due north of the area. Fresh E winds are expected
in the Gulf of Honduras Thu through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds
and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through
the period while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail in the NW portions. A pair of tropical waves
will move through the basin through Fri, mainly producing active
weather across the SW Caribbean waters Fri through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 mb low pressure system (AL93) centered off Cape Canaveral
near 29N79.5W continues to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms west of 77W and across the NW Bahamas and the
Florida coastal waters south of 29N. Recent satellite
scatterometer data captured fresh to strong S to SW winds within
90 across the south and east portions of this feature. To the
east, a 1025 mb high is centered near 31N57W, and extends a ridge
W-SW to 75W. Farther east, a cold front extends from the NE
Atlantic and enters the area near 31N39W to 29N50W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm ahead of this
boundary. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds and moderate
seas are found north of 28N and between 35W and 50W associated
with this front. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by
a persistent subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally
fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas to 5 ft west of 60W. To the
south of the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are found south of 26N and between 25W and
60W. Lastly, in the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally
strong NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of 20N and
east of 25W. Elsewhere within the ridge, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge along 29N extends from
the central Atlantic to 75W this morning, while a 1014 mb low has
formed near 29N79.5W. The low is expected to move westward across
Florida later today through tonight, and eventually emerge over
the northeastern Gulf of America by late tonight or early Wed.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some development of
this system is possible today before it moves over the Florida
Peninsula. High pressure over the central Atlantic will then build
westward across the region and across Florida late tonight
through Sat in the wake of the low pressure. Active thunderstorms
are expected in association with this system over the waters west
of 76W through tonight. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge building westward and the low pressure will support
moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the Bahamas and through the
NW zones today through early Thu.

$$
Stripling