Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 220531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER
THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...AND MOVE EAST OF AREA WED
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT
AND WED. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO
06N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N30W TO 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 22W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0000 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO
NEAR JALAPA MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA AND
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE
DATA W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE SEEN S OF THE FRONT AND E OF 87W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TODAY ACROSS THE GULF REGION WHILE A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 27N85W
TO 22N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF
80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE A ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN
CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0000 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N79W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST REGION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF
THE AREA TODAY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS FARTHER E NEAR 30N62W AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STRETCHING FROM 31N39W TO 27N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N16W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO NEAR 26N37W. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. LOOKING AHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR EAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND
WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC REGION
WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM
31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL
CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



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