Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282141
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 130.4W AT 2100 UTC
AUG 28...OR 825 NM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO...MOVING NW OR 310
DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB. THE BROAD LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF MARIE IS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE SE
QUADRANT. THE WEAKENING TREND OF MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NW...AND IS FORECAST TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT. A CONTINUED NW MOTION AND GRADUAL
SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
MARIE IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA WATERS LATE SAT MORNING. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE...INCLUDING THE
CONTINUED THREATS OF LIFE THREATENING SURF...VERY STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74.5W TO 10N86W TO 12N96W TO
11N114W...THEN RESUMES FROM 16N125W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N
BETWEEN 79W AND 88W...AND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S TO
SE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 123W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...FADING REMNANT SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA AND LOWELL
HAVE MIXED WITH THOSE GENERATED BY MARIE...AND DOMINATE THESE
AREA WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHIFTING TO
THE NW WITH TIME.

1024 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N134W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 26N117W. PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP E OF THE PENINSULA ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-NW WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE PENINSULA N OF 24N.
THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT NW AND DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE
TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



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