Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL POCKET OF COOL UPWELLED WATER NEAR 14N95W.
THE GALE WINDS HAVE GENERATED SEA STATE IN THE RANGE OF 12-17
FT. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N97W N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT WITH
SEAS OF 9-14 FT. THE GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST
BELOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO MON MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING
WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N90W TO 08N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT RECENTLY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N118W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW TO NEAR 12N118W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A 90-100 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N115W NEWD TO
ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...8-11 FT IS NW OF A LINE
FROM 32N116W TO 18N112W TO THE EQUATOR AT 128W. THEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION ON MON AND EXTEND
FROM 32N134W TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM 32N134W TO  21N140W TUE. THE AREA OF SWELL WILL
BE FROM N OF 17N W OF 125W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MON THEN DECREASE TUE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 09N TO 11N E OF 88W...AND TO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN AT THE SAME
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

$$
DGS


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