Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2205 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build
behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico early this
week. This pattern, along with local drainage flow effects, will
support gap winds to minimal gale force to pulse across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec late Mon evening into early Tue morning. And
pulse to minimal gale-force winds again late Tue evening into Wed
morning. Expect sustained winds to briefly reach 35 kt during
this times, with seas building as high as 10 ft downstream across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Tue through Wed.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N90W to 03N107W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N107W to 04N128W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the trough from 04N to 06N between 83W
and 86W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area off the U.S. west
coast, to off Baja California to off Cabo Corrientes. Recent
ASCAT pass depicted moderate to fresh NW winds across the
central and southern Gulf of California, funneling between this
ridge and lower pressure over central Mexico. Elsewhere, this
pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the
offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate combined seas prevail
everywhere, including most of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, as described in the Special Features section,
near-gale to gale force gap will start tonight over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front moving into southern
Mexico. Winds will pulse to gale force again on Tue night. These
gap winds and associated rough seas will diminish across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wed. Farther north, expect moderate
to fresh NW winds from the central Gulf of California to Cabo
Corrientes to persist through Tue as the high pressure builds
west of the region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico.
These winds will diminish through late Tue. Beyond Tue, gentle
to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Latest scatterometer data confirmed the presence moderate to
fresh NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. This gap wind
event is due to a combination of local drainage effects and a
relatively tight gradient related to high pressure north of the
area. Seas within this winds are 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere seas 3 to 5
ft seas prevail except, seas to 8 ft persist close to the south
of the offshore waters around the Galapagos in the southern
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region into Tue morning, then possibly pulsing each night until
Thu night. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue
elsewhere through the forecast period. Farther south, southerly
swell reaching 8 ft will persist through Tue evening from
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1012 mb broad area of low pressure is located near 23N134W.
This low is associated with a broad, negatively tilted mid to
upper level trough reaching from northwest of the region, where
related divergent flow aloft continue to support clusters of
showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident to the southeast of the low center near
19N132W in where recent scatterometer data depicted localized
near- gale force to gale winds out of the south. Broad surface
ridging is in place north of 20N, supporting mostly gentle
breezes across the region, except for moderate trade wind flow
over tropical waters from 08N to 16N. NW swell of 6 to 7 ft
covers most of the region west of 105W, with seas to 9 ft in the
area of moderate trade winds, and farther south of the equator
where a component of SE swell is adding to the mix. Combined seas
of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swell are evident east of 105W.

For the forecast, low pressure west of the area along the
surface trough will move eastward tonight, with winds increasing
to moderate to fresh along 140W and north of 21N. The low may
linger through the early part of the week before weakening and
opening to a trough. Shorter period wind waves created by
moderate to fresh swell from 05N to 15N west of 110W will mix
with the longer period NW swell propagating across the region to
maintain 8 to 9 ft combined seas in the area of moderate to fresh
trade winds through mid week. Farther south, the southerly swell
will subside Tue night.

$$
KRV


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