Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231519
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS S-SE
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING FROM 15.5N93W TO 11N93W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
WITH SHARP RIDGING EXTENDING SE ACROSS FAR SE MEXICO. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS BY
24 HOURS AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE GFS...ECMWF AND
UKMET ALL INDICATE THESE WINDS...WITH THE UKMET EVEN SHOWING 40
KT 10-M WINDS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING LIKELY HELPING TO
DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 14N92W THEN
RESUMES FROM 14N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N112W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N128W TO 08N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE
E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW NEAR
10N112W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 124W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE E AND 180 NM
IN THE W QUADRANTS OF THE LOW NEAR 10N128W.

...DISCUSSION...

1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR
30N133W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR
20N110W. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS E OF 110W.

NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS TO 10 FT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY ACROSS THE WATERS W OF
110W WITH THE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING SE
COVERING THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 106W BY 48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER TONIGHT...BREACHING
30N140W BY 12 UTC FRI WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT
ALONG WITH 8-13 FT SEAS...AND A SMALL AREA OF SW FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE REACHING 30N127W TO 26N133W TO 23N140W
BY 48 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY FRI EVENING...WHILE SEAS WILL STILL BE 8-12 FT BEHIND THE
FRONT BY EARLY SAT.

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 10N112W AND
THE OTHER NEAR 10N128W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THESE LOWS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



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