Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
22205 UTC Sat May 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis that extends from 06N91W to 15N92W,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave continues to produce
convection in the form of scattered moderate to isolated strong
type from 05N to 10N between 89W and 91W. This wave is embedded
within a broad inverted trough at 700 mb, and is forecast to
continue in a west to west-northwest motion through Monday.

A tropical wave has an axis that extends from 06N95W to 15N97W,
moving westward at about 10 kt. The TPW animation depicts the
wave to be embedded within an atmospheric environment of very
deep moisture. Both model data and satellite water vapor suggest
that a sharp 700 mb trough is located within the general vicinity
of this wave. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 05N to 09N between 93W and
99W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Tough axis extends from far NW Colombia to
09N78W to 09N90W. It resumes to the west of a pair of tropical
waves at a location near 11N98W to 14N105W to 13N115W to 09N121W.
The ITCZ axis then begins at 09N121W, and continues to 08N130W
to beyond 07N140W. Other than convection associated with the
tropical waves described in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either
side of axis between 98W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm s of the axis between 120W and 122W, and within
60 nm north of the axis between 138W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from a 1015 mb low over far southeastern Nevada
south to across the northern portion of the Gulf of California
and to near 27N111W. The strong winds and higher seas that
occurred last night and this morning over that portion of the
Gulf have diminished, with seas down to around 2 ft and winds
light and variable there. Gentle to moderate winds are expected
over the Gulf the remainder of the weekend and into early next
week. Low pressure will develop over the western United states
during the middle portion of next eek, supporting moderate to
fresh winds over the northern Gulf.

High pressure west of the region will support moderate to fresh
northwest winds offshore Baja California the next several days
with seas generally ranging from 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly
light to gentle winds are expected over the Mexico offshore
waters south of Baja California through the middle of next week.
The only exception to the winds will be along a pair of tropical
waves that will pass along and south of the Tehuantepec area
with associated scattered showers and thunderstorms along with
brief gusty moderate to fresh east to southeast winds. A broad
area of low pressure may develop to the southwest of southeastern
Mexico and Gulf of Tehuantepec region during the middle portion
of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The Monsoon Trough will continue to intersect the region from
west to east the next several days, supporting convection mainly
north of around 03N. North of the trough axis mainly light to
gentle winds will prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. To the south of
the trough axis moderate to locally fresh south to southwest
winds can be expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge is forecast to meander over the northwestern waters
near 30N133W over the weekend and into early next week which
will continue to support gentle to moderate winds over the
northern waters west of the Mexico offshore waters with seas of 5
to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds prevail over
the waters south of 20N, and also to the north of the ITCZ and
Monsoon Trough. These winds will support seas of 6 to 7 ft.
Another area of high pressure, a bit stronger, is forecast to
build west over the northwest waters beginning on Tuesday. The
pressure gradient between it and lower pressure near the ITCZ
should allow for northeast trades to increase to 20 kt, with
locally winds to 25 kt from 07N to 15N west of 130W. These winds
should build the seas up to 8 to 9 ft there before winds
diminish Wednesday. Seas are expected to lineger up to 8 ft in
mixed swell late Wednesday through Thursday night

$$
Aguirre



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