Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251532
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 11N94W
TO DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN 0406 UTC ASCAT-B PASS OVER THE REGION SHOWED
A SIZABLE AREA OF 33 KT WINDS...AS MUCH AS 120 NM S OF THE
COAST...BEFORE THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE GALE FORCE WINDS BELIEVED
TO BE IN PLACE NOW WILL NOT DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE UNTIL
AFTER THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW ENDS ON SUNDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND
FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY 24-48 HOURS FROM NOW...ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA AFTER THAT
TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR
11N94W 1010 MB TO 08N102W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N110W 1011 MB TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12N107W 1011 MB TO 09N119W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N133W 1011 MB TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND
97W AS WELL AS BETWEEN 60 NM AND 240 NM N QUADRANT OF LOW PRES
NEAR 11N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS W OF 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180
NM OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N133W...EXCEPT 90 NM E QUADRANT.

...DISCUSSION...
1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 24N121W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 13N105W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS LIE OVER
WATERS W OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
LIES TO THE W OF THE HIGH FROM 30N126W TO 27N130W TO 23N140W.
ASCAT PASSES FROM 0500-0700 UTC SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NEAR THE FRONT. A JASON-2 PASS FROM
THAT TIME REVEALS SEAS ABOVE 8 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE LARGER
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NW. THE NW SWELL CURRENTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL OUTRUN IT LATER TODAY AND BRING SEAS IN THE 8-14 FT
RANGE TO MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W THROUGH MON
MORNING.

SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE WESTERN LOW PRES
SYSTEM NEAR 10N133W. THIS LOW LIES IN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF
AN UPPER JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES FROM 13N144W TO 30N137W. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THIS LOW.
OTHERWISE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIES OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR IN THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N80W AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
THE GALAPAGOS AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE
HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 50 MILLIMETERS S OF
PANAMA. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE HERE THROUGH SUN AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON MON.

$$
SCHAUER



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