Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191559
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1444 UTC Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong to minimal gale force
SW-W winds, with building seas to 8 ft will develop across the
waters from 29N to 30.5N this evening ahead of a cold front that
will pass E across the far northern gulf waters. Strong northerly
winds and seas to 8 ft are expected NW of the front through
tonight. The front will move E of the area on Tue, with marine
conditions quickly improving thereafter.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends SW from 08N78W to 06N86W to 05N98W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 04N110W to 07N130W to 07N140W.
No significant convection is noted.

TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 06N86W TO 05N98W. ITCZ FROM 05N98W TO
04N110W TO 07N130W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough is noted across the Gulf of California and Baja
California, and extends from 31N114W to 24N120W. A cold front
follows the trough, and stretches from 32N115W to 30N117W to
28N120W to 26N126W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 8
ft are currently noted in the wake of the front. Strengthening
high pressure behind the front will result in a strong NW breeze
spreading SE across the waters W of the Baja Norte through
tonight, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 10 to 14 ft.
the swell event will continue to affect the offshore waters W of
Baja through Wed, with seas gradually subsiding to less than 8
ft Wed night into Thu.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly light and variable winds are expected
over the next couple of days with seas generally under 4 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through at least Wed,
with seas building to 9 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal N winds are
expected across the western Gulf of Panama tonight into early Tue
morning, with these conditions extending as far S as 05N80W.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of
09N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1040 mb located well N of the area
extends a ridge SW across the forecast waters to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient will tighten
tonight, with fresh to strong trades developing across the
tropical waters W of 125W, while fresh to strong N winds will
spread S across the northern waters in the wake of a cold front
sweeping E across the Baja Peninsula. Conditions will improve
briefly across the sub- tropics on Thu, the deteriorate again
behind another cold front on Fri.

$$
GR



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