Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190921
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
459 UTC Sun Feb 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 06N86W to 06N105W. It resumes from
08.5N118W to 01N140W. No significant convection is occurring in
the vicinity of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front continues to push across the southern Gulf of
California into the Pacific waters to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. High pressure is building in the wake of the front.
Fresh to strong winds are noted over the offshore waters off the
coast of Baja California Norte and the northern portion of Baja
California Sur. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the offshore
waters off the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Large northwesterly swells are
impacting the coastal and offshore waters of the entire Baja
California peninsula, with seas near 20 ft off Baja California
Norte. This swell is bringing dangerous conditions across these
waters. Please see statements from your local meteorological
agency on this high impact swell event. The cold front will
shift east of the area today with winds and seas decreasing over
this area the next couple of days. By late Monday night, seas
will subside to 6-8 ft seas. A fresh set of northwesterly swells
will once again propagate into the waters off Baja California
Norte, with seas building to near 10 ft by the middle of the
week.

High pressure will build across eastern Mexico behind a surface
trough moving across the western Gulf of Mexico early this week,
helping produce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This
will be a brief event with winds peaking near gale force late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before diminishing below
advisory criteria by Wednesday evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh
during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then
diminish midweek.

Gulf of Panama: Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh northerly
flow during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will
then diminish afterwards.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure has built in the wake of the strong cold front that
moved across the northern waters the past couple of days. The
main impact across the area continues to be the large
northwesterly swells, with seas in excess of 12 ft covering much
of the area north of 20N between 115W and 130W. This swell will
continue to propagate southeastward while subsiding over the next
few days. Seas greater than 8 ft will spread as far south as 05N
and east to 105W by Tuesday afternoon. Another cold front will
push into the far northwest waters today. The overnight ASCAT
pass indicate winds have freshened over the northwest waters
ahead of the approaching front. Strong to near gale winds will
prevail west of the front tonight through Monday afternoon before
diminishing. This front will usher in a fresh set of large
northwesterly swells into the forecast waters, with seas peaking
near 20 ft over the far northwest waters early Monday morning
into the afternoon. Seas will slowly subside as the swell
propagates southeastward. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover much of
the forecast waters north of 10N and west of 120W by Tuesday
evening before areal coverage of 8 ft seas starts to decrease.

$$
AL



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