455
FXUS61 KOKX 221555
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1155 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through tonight, then give way
to an approaching cold front on Thursday which moves through
Thursday night into Friday. Weak high pressure builds in for
Friday night. A weak trough moves through the area Saturday. A
deep low pressure system tracks through the Great Lakes and into
Canada Sunday night through Tuesday with the system`s warm
front passing north Sunday, with the cold front moving through
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Have bumped highs up just a few degrees to capture the latest
obs, especially across Long Island where some locations inland
and on the north shore have warmed to the upper 70s. Otherwise,
the forecast is on track.

High pressure offshore today will continue a light southerly
flow, continuing to advect a warm and humid air mass into the
region, with 850 hPa temperatures in the 15 to 17 C range. This
should translate to highs in the middle to upper 80s away from
the coast, while highs along the coast will be in the upper 60s
to upper 70s thanks to the relatively cooler ocean temperatures.

A pre-frontal trough and cold front slowly approach from the
west, with much of the day and area remaining dry. However,
there may be isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm
across northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley before
the day ends. While CAPE values should rise to the 1000-2000
J/kg rang for this area, and lift increases as the pre-frontal
trough moves in, not expecting anything strong or severe as
shear values are rather low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough and cold front continue their approach
Wednesday night, with chances for showers and an isolated
thunderstorm slowly spreading east thanks to stability
increasing after sunset.

A warm night is expected as continued southerly flow and more
in the way of clouds help to keep temperatures up. Lows should
range from the upper 50s along the coast, to lower to middle 60s
elsewhere, except upper 60s in the NYC metro area.

Better chances for stronger storms on Thursday as the cold front
begins to move through. Instability away from the coast will
once again range in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, with steep low
level lapse rates. Shear seems to be a bit of a limiting factor
for the severe threat, with 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kt. So, strong
storms with isolated severe is possible. The Storm Prediction
Center has placed the entire forecast area in a marginal threat
for severe storms, with the main threat being damaging winds,
and possibly severe hail. A number of CAMs are showing a complex
of showers and thunderstorms moving across northeast New
Jersey, NYC, and Long Island in the afternoon. However, the
instability is lower here thanks to onshore flow, but there is a
fair amount of elevated instability, so cannot rule out a
severe storm here as well.

The cold front pushes through late Thursday night into Friday
morning. The chance for showers and thunderstorms continue, but
instability should weaken with the loss of daytime heating. A
slight chance of plain showers by Friday morning transitions to
dry conditions by the afternoon with the front finally clearing
eastern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures remain above seasonal normals Friday night
 through Monday night.

* Potential for a few rounds of showers and possibly
 thunderstorms Saturday through Memorial Day.

Near zonal flow continues across the country Friday night into
Sunday with a more amplified trough moving into the northern plains
and Great Lakes region Sunday night into the beginning of next week,
sending a cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday.
Weaker shortwaves will be moving through the region Saturday into
Sunday Timing uncertainties remain with the shortwaves, with the
potential for showers late Friday night into Saturday night. And
with some daytime heating a few thunderstorms will also be possible
inland Saturday. A warm front passes to the north Sunday into Sunday
night in association with the low tracking into the Great Lakes
region.
Then with the area in the warm sector for Monday, and the approach
of a cold front, showers and thunderstorms will be possible. The mid
and upper level low will remain across southeastern Canada and into
the northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night with the chance of showers
remaining. With the uncertainties followed the NBM probabilities,
and for temperatures used a blend of the deterministic and 50th
percentile.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak surface high pressure just offshore will drift farther
offshore this evening, with a surface trough approaching late
tonight.

VFR, becoming IFR with stratus developing first at KGON around
04Z, and at KISP/KBDR from 07Z-09Z. VFR showers may be possible
late tonight at the NYC metro terminals, a rumble of thunder
cannot be ruled out, however chances are low and not included.
A better chance for thunder is at KSWF and included in PROB30.

S-SW winds increase late this morning into the afternoon, with
S-SE sea breezes likely mid to late afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible to adjust sea breeze timing this afternoon. Ocnl
gusts possible this afternoon except at KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: MVFR. Showers/tstms likely especially in the
afternoon.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Generally VFR. Chance of showers with
brief MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub SCA cond expected through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP/JT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG/MET
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET