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000
FXUS64 KOUN 121958
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
258 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS THE ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS AND N. CENTRAL OK. SFC DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS NWRN OK AT 2 PM CDT RANGE FROM 30 TO 40
F...SO DESPITE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS NWRN/WRN OK
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC DRY AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING SFC THETA E VALUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9 C/KM. UNFORTUNATELY...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL BE HEIGHTENED ON MONDAY ACROSS FAR WRN OK
AND WRN N TX AS THE DRYLINE SURGES EAST...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOWER 90S AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S...WINDS
WILL BE S/SW 10 TO 15...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S ACROSS NRN TX. TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TEMP-WISE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE GOING FORECAST AS MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH A WARM UP MON-TUE AS SWRN FLOW PERSISTS AND RAIN CHANCES MID-
WEEK AS AN OPEN 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY. WITH
S/SW SFC WINDS ACROSS TX AND OK BACKING TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SFC LOW...PWAT VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WED...1.0 TO 1.25 IN. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX WITH
THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE BROAD LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL FORCING. AT THE
MOMENT...LOOKS LIKE MOST STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT A BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEST SBCAPE WILL RESULT IN A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD IN WITH RAIN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS EARLY
THU. WITH SWRN FLOW RETURNING FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP IN THE
80S BEFORE ANOTHER...STRONGER/LARGE SCALE TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LONG-RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STOUT SFC LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH A DRY
LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX CAPROCK. THIS WILL INCREASE SVR WX
POTENTIAL FOR FRI-WEEKEND GIVEN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND A DEEPER
FLOW REGIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME...THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN CONFIDENCE IN THAT
SOLUTION.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  87  60  87 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         56  91  61  89 /  10   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  92  60  89 /  10   0   0  10
GAGE OK           52  91  62  89 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  85  60  88 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         53  88  61  87 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/04