Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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412 FXUS64 KTSA 100230 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 930 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 930 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 At mid evening a few showers/isolated storms remained across far Southeast Oklahoma along/near an axis of 700-mb frontogenetic forcing. This activity was moving within the mean flow along this boundary...with the northern extent of the marginal elevated instability also along/near the frontogenetic forcing axis. A few showers/isolated storm will remain forecast near the Red River for the next couple of hours before the forcing axis and elevated instability get a push southeast from a mid/upper level trof axis dropping southeast through the Plains. Severe weather is not expected with the remaining activity this evening. Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...mostly clear skies were common as surface high pressure expanded southward into the Southern Plains underneath the mid/upper level trof axis. The mostly clear condition should continue to spread over the CWA overnight...with some possible high clouds early morning Friday behind the exiting trof axis. In response...temps tonight remain forecast to fall into the 50s for most locations over the CWA. The normal cool locations could potentially reach into the upper 40s briefly before sunrise. For the evening update...have adjusted PoPs/wx grids for tonight based on the mentioned above...and added minor tweaks to hourly overnight temp/dewpoint/sky grids to account for latest trends and obs. The rest of the forecast seems to be in good shape at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Quiet weather is anticipated Friday and Saturday as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft. The chances of showers/storms return Sunday night into Monday night as an upper level low moves out of the Rockies and across the Plains. Additional showers and storms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday as another upper level system impacts the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. Mid and high cloud will clear out by this evening. Some few to sct mid cloud could reappear tomorrow afternoon, but no aviation impact is expected. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 53 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 57 78 54 82 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 57 78 54 82 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 49 76 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 51 74 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 51 71 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 54 74 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 50 72 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 F10 54 75 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 59 78 54 79 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...30