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000
FXUS64 KTSA 240823
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
323 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Today starts an extended period of very active weather which will
likely continue through the weekend as a series of strong storm
system moves through the region. Multiple rounds of severe weather
appear likely, at least in some areas, with the potential for
heavy rainfall and eventually flash flooding.

patchy dense valley fog will continue to expand in coverage
across portions of far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas
through sunrise near cold front currently extending southwest into
east central Oklahoma.

A mid level disturbance will approach into stronger west-
northwest flow today with scattered showers and thunderstorms
likely developing near and north of the front this morning into
the afternoon hours. The extensive cloud cover and expected
precipitation should keep temperatures on the cool side north of
boundary.



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

As stronger warm advection/low level jet develops tonight, a few
clusters of strong to marginally severe storms are likely across
portions of northeast Oklahoma, especially after midnight into
Thursday morning. With some spread in the CAM solutions, exact
locations and coverage is still somewhat uncertain, however a few
swaths of heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms that
train over the same areas into Thursday morning.

Additional storms are likely Thursday night, especially along/north
of I-44 as strong mid level low lifts into the central Plains.
Again at least some severe threat is expected including the potential
for heavy rainfall. Forecast remains challenging regarding storm
evolution into Friday and will likely depend on timing and how
much destabilization occurs ahead of main convective development.
Very strong wind profiles in association with mid level speed max
are expected during the day Friday and any pockets of greater
instability would likely have a more enhanced threat for rotating
storms.

Dry line stalls Friday night west of area with a very moist/unstable
air-mass expected into Saturday ahead of another robust upper low
lifting northeast into Kansas. Again severe weather appears likely,
which could transition to a heavy rain/flash flooding threat into
Saturday night, which both GFS/ECMWF solutions suggest. Another
round of strong/severe storms could redevelop across SE OK/NW AR
Sunday before cold front finally pushes southeast of the area
Monday morning.

Specific severe threats will continue to be refined over the next
few days, including areas that have the greatest threat for heavy
rainfall. Flooding could become a concern, especially Saturday
night into Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Scattered to overcast mid clouds will continue to sag southward
with the movement of a surface boundary across the CWA tonight. By
12z Wed scattered to broken MVFR to low end VFR ceilings are
forecast for KMLC/KFSM...while mainly high clouds should remain
for the rest of the CWA TAF sites. During the day Wednesday...mid
level clouds are forecast to spread back over the CWA along with
rain/storm chances. There is also potential for MVFR conditions to
remain during the day for KMLC...though the greater potential
looks to remain just west/southwest. Will continue to carry Prob30
groups for timing of afternoon precip potential. Heading into
Wednesday evening...broken/overcast mid clouds are forecast over
the CWA with continued shower/storm chances. At this time the
greater precip potential after 00z Thu looks to be across
northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  59  72  64 /  50  60  90  80
FSM   75  59  72  64 /  50  60  80  40
MLC   74  63  77  65 /  60  60  60  70
BVO   72  54  71  61 /  50  80  90  90
FYV   75  54  69  60 /  30  60  90  50
BYV   73  54  64  57 /  10  70  90  50
MKO   71  59  72  63 /  50  60  80  70
MIO   72  55  67  61 /  20  80  90  80
F10   71  59  75  65 /  60  60  70  80
HHW   75  64  77  66 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20