186
FXUS64 KAMA 182324
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Heat will be the key message as 90s to low 100s will be in store
  over the next several days, and Palo Duro Canyon looks to have
  multiple 100+ degree days.


- Although the pattern generally favors dry conditions, we still
  could have active weather in the west next week if the moisture
  in NM makes it far enough east into the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The main surge of moisture last night has diminished and moved off
to the east. High pressure over the Atlantic is starting to expand
and retrograde west, leading to a more stable capped airmass over
the eastern and central Panhandles. The west still might manage an
isolated storm this evening, but confidence is very low at this
time. Overall, the moisture looks to remain in the NM area through
most of the weekend. That being said, given the ample moisture
that the central and western Panhandles have received, will not
rule out those pop up storms. They should be short lived given the
weak shear aloft, and would only be more scattered in nature if
outflows occur to trigger new storms.

The main story to focus on with this high shifting further west,
is now the rising heights and the potential for several days of
hot temperatures. Palo Duro Canyon looks to have multiple days
exceeding 100 degrees, but confidence is not there that it will
reach heat Advisory. Lately models are pulling back on the
dewpoints, as there seems to be a pocket of drier air that may
help lower the dewpoints in the 50s, keeping the heat index in
check. This is still highly in question as we`ve had so much
moisture lately, and on a fairly consistent basis we`ve been
dealing with dewpoints in the 60s. We haven`t worried about the
heat index too much, as temperatures have been near to below
normal for this time of year. Normal at the start of the month was
91, and is now 93. Picking the lower number of the two, we`ve only
managed to reach or exceed 91 degrees 8 times this month, so these
90s to lower 100s, while typical for July, will certainly make it
feel like the typical summer heat we usually experience. And
another aspect we`ll be watching is if we actually get that lower
dewpoint in, and don`t have to worry about any heat index.

So, while the weekend is looking to lean on the more hot and dry
side of things, the confidence in dry is still low, despite the
limited pops Saturday and Sunday. Overall, models have done a
poor job on pinpointing the rain chances as of late, both
deterministic and CAMS, and picking up on summer convection is a
challenge. So with that, would not be shocked if isolated to maybe
scattered storms popped up along the northern or western
Panhandles tomorrow or Sunday.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

As briefly touched on in the short term. Would not be surprised
to see some isolated to scattered storms Sunday along the northern
and western Panhandles. While the high continues to shift west,
which would usually support drier conditions,it`s becoming more
amplified from north to south as it centers over Arkansans on
Monday. That along with a positively tilted trough coming into the
Pacific Northwest will help shove some of that moisture being
pumped up from the eastern Pacific to NM, further east into our
western to central Panhandles. Current NBM is starting to pick up
on this with some very light mentionable storms in the west on
Monday and Tuesday, and while we feel its still under performing
the pops, it is trending to a more active week of showers and
storms.

Another interesting thing to note is while we are looking at above
normal temperatures and like very warm to hot days ahead, and this
did look to be the case in previous model runs, will note that NBM
is starting to pull back on the highs mid next week, and the only
logical reason for highs to be dropping in under this high
pressure situation is that models are convecting over the area and
we`ve got more moisture. So again, there are currently low pops in
the extended, and above normal temperatures in the mid 90s to
lower 100s, but the trend of pulling back from upper 90s to maybe
mid 100s in a couple isolated spots, and just how much moisture is
pumped up from the Eastern Pacific through the NM area, suggests
that we are likely going to see some of those showers and storms
across the area. While severe weather is not currently a concern,
we`ll have to keep an eye on things if we become more active with
higher precipitation chances.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

As of this evening, latest radar was seeing some storms try to
develop to the southeast and northwest of the Panhandles.
However, these storms are also struggling to get anywhere close to
our area, which has been something supported by current CAM
analysis. For now, confidence in impacts to any of the terminals
remains low, so have left all sites at VFR for the present
package.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...11