Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
205 FXUS64 KAMA 152332 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 632 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon/evening. Although the chances are very low at this time, cannot entirely rule out a severe thunderstorm or two in the western/central Oklahoma Panhandle Wednesday evening. Damaging winds would be the primary hazard. - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to return Wednesday and Friday through at least Tuesday. Triple digit heat will be possible across the eastern combined Panhandles, Palo Duro Canyon, and portions of the Canadian River Valley. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Water vapor imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs across the Rockies and Pacific Northwest this morning with a pair of ridges off the West Coast and over the Southeastern US. Forecast soundings for today show a subsidence inversion across much of the Panhandles which suggests a mostly if not entirely dry day. Expecting temperatures to warm into the low to mid-90s. The previously mentioned Southeastern US ridge will expand westward into the Southern Plains through the day on Wednesday which will help warm the Panhandles into the mid to upper-90s. Latest NBM probabilities give parts of the Canadian River Valley and central Oklahoma Panhandle a 10% to 30% chance to reach or slightly exceed 100 degrees. Additionally, humidity should stick around through the afternoon to some extent which would make temperatures feel 1 to 3 degrees warmer--particularly across the eastern combined Panhandles-- resulting in some locations reaching 100 degrees via Heat Index if not by just the temperature. A cold front is expected to move into the Panhandles later in the afternoon/early evening hours of Wednesday with a cool and moist airmass behind it, but models diverge significantly regarding its progression through Wednesday night. Nonetheless, a weak disturbance is favored to clip the northern Panhandles Wednesday evening which may be a catalyst for thunderstorm development in SE Colorado/SW Kansas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Cannot rule out a rogue 60 mph wind gust or two with this activity given that moderate instability will be sustained with favorable DCAPE values. This activity and the associated outflow they produce should help keep the front moving as opposed to the global model`s solution of stalling the front out overnight. As the southerly low-level jet intensifies in the evening and at least early overnight period, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Texas Panhandle. However, guidance shows that the LLJ will veer later in the overnight period and become less perpendicular to the boundary suggesting that additional development behind the boundary will become less likely with time. The NBM reflects this scenario well; the higher PoPs are kept in the Oklahoma Panhandle (50% to 75%), decreasing with southward extent-- though it does give 10% to 45% PoPs for the Texas Panhandle. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Considerable uncertainty exists for Thursday`s forecast which revolves around what happens with the potentially outflow-driven cold front from Wednesday night. As previously stated, currently favoring the solution shown by CAMs that moves the front through much, if not all of the Panhandles by Thursday morning before stalling out. The NBM currently has highs in the upper-80s to mid- 90s across the southern Texas Panhandle which is mostly consistent with the global model`s solution of stalling the front out in the central Texas Panhandle. However, if the front pushes through as some CAMs suggest, those highs could be 5 to 10 degrees too warm for places like Borger, Amarillo, Boys Ranch, and Pampa. The quasi-stationary boundary will likely retreat to some degree through Thursday before showers thunderstorms are favored to develop along the boundary again in the late afternoon/early evening hours. Instability in the vicinity of the front will wane through the afternoon as daytime heating increases the LCLs while mid-level temperatures warm, such that a merely weakly unstable environment may remain by the time thunderstorms develop. That said, won`t be able to rule out some strong wind gusts and heavy rain with this activity. The NBM has 20% to 60% PoPs across the CWA, which again, is assuming the front stalls out in the central Texas Panhandle. If the front doesn`t do that, then those PoPs would need to be shifted southward into the southern and perhaps central Texas Panhandle. Friday and beyond, an upper-level ridge will continue to build over the Southern Plains. With increased subsidence over the region and warming temperatures aloft, we will embark on a warming and drying trend. Triple digit heat will be possible late this weekend and into early next week across the eastern combined Panhandles, the Canadian River Valley, and Palo Duro Canyon. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Potential for thunderstorms continue to decline as latest satellite and radar from this evening continue to see storms struggle just to our north. Given the low confidence in any impacts to the terminals, have chosen to leave any mention out of the present package with all terminals currently expected to stay VFR. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...11