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000
FXUS64 KAMA 230805
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: DRY AND HOT. ONE MINOR CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH FROM KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A BEAVER TO CLAUDE LINE. HOWEVER, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT WARM NOSE BETWEEN 600-500 MB AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 1-2 C WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, WE`VE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER AND JUST ABOUT
EVERYBODY WILL STAY DRY. THE ONLY PLACE THAT HAS ANY SHOT FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES, BUT EVEN IN THIS AREA,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL DRIFT INTO FROM
NEW MEXICO.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THIS LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH WIDESPREAD 100S LIKELY. WE MIGHT EVEN NEED TO CONSIDER A LOCAL
HEAT ADVISORY FOR PALO DURO CANYON AS TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 105 F
AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CANYON. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAY
DRIFT IN FROM NEW MEXICO AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AS MODELS
SHOW SOME CONFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SATURDAY, THE HEAT
WILL BACK OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES REALLY INCREASING
IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, TOO.

JACKSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS EITHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT AND/OR 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                68  98  69 100  69 /   5   0   0   5  10
BEAVER OK                  69 104  70 104  72 /   5   0   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              68 101  68 100  68 /   5   5  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  73 103  75 103  73 /   5   0   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              68 101  70 103  69 /   5   0   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  66  98  68 100  67 /   5   0   0   5  10
CLARENDON TX               69  98  71 100  73 /  10   0   0   5   0
DALHART TX                 63  99  66 100  67 /   5   0   0   5  20
GUYMON OK                  69 103  70 103  68 /   5   0   0   5  20
HEREFORD TX                65  96  66  98  66 /   5   0   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                69 100  73 103  72 /  10   0   0   5  10
PAMPA TX                   70  99  71 100  72 /   5   0   0   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                70 100  73 100  74 /  10   0   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              71 102  72 103  75 /  10   0   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

BJS/JJ