


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
186 FXUS64 KAMA 182324 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 624 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Heat will be the key message as 90s to low 100s will be in store over the next several days, and Palo Duro Canyon looks to have multiple 100+ degree days. - Although the pattern generally favors dry conditions, we still could have active weather in the west next week if the moisture in NM makes it far enough east into the Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 The main surge of moisture last night has diminished and moved off to the east. High pressure over the Atlantic is starting to expand and retrograde west, leading to a more stable capped airmass over the eastern and central Panhandles. The west still might manage an isolated storm this evening, but confidence is very low at this time. Overall, the moisture looks to remain in the NM area through most of the weekend. That being said, given the ample moisture that the central and western Panhandles have received, will not rule out those pop up storms. They should be short lived given the weak shear aloft, and would only be more scattered in nature if outflows occur to trigger new storms. The main story to focus on with this high shifting further west, is now the rising heights and the potential for several days of hot temperatures. Palo Duro Canyon looks to have multiple days exceeding 100 degrees, but confidence is not there that it will reach heat Advisory. Lately models are pulling back on the dewpoints, as there seems to be a pocket of drier air that may help lower the dewpoints in the 50s, keeping the heat index in check. This is still highly in question as we`ve had so much moisture lately, and on a fairly consistent basis we`ve been dealing with dewpoints in the 60s. We haven`t worried about the heat index too much, as temperatures have been near to below normal for this time of year. Normal at the start of the month was 91, and is now 93. Picking the lower number of the two, we`ve only managed to reach or exceed 91 degrees 8 times this month, so these 90s to lower 100s, while typical for July, will certainly make it feel like the typical summer heat we usually experience. And another aspect we`ll be watching is if we actually get that lower dewpoint in, and don`t have to worry about any heat index. So, while the weekend is looking to lean on the more hot and dry side of things, the confidence in dry is still low, despite the limited pops Saturday and Sunday. Overall, models have done a poor job on pinpointing the rain chances as of late, both deterministic and CAMS, and picking up on summer convection is a challenge. So with that, would not be shocked if isolated to maybe scattered storms popped up along the northern or western Panhandles tomorrow or Sunday. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 As briefly touched on in the short term. Would not be surprised to see some isolated to scattered storms Sunday along the northern and western Panhandles. While the high continues to shift west, which would usually support drier conditions,it`s becoming more amplified from north to south as it centers over Arkansans on Monday. That along with a positively tilted trough coming into the Pacific Northwest will help shove some of that moisture being pumped up from the eastern Pacific to NM, further east into our western to central Panhandles. Current NBM is starting to pick up on this with some very light mentionable storms in the west on Monday and Tuesday, and while we feel its still under performing the pops, it is trending to a more active week of showers and storms. Another interesting thing to note is while we are looking at above normal temperatures and like very warm to hot days ahead, and this did look to be the case in previous model runs, will note that NBM is starting to pull back on the highs mid next week, and the only logical reason for highs to be dropping in under this high pressure situation is that models are convecting over the area and we`ve got more moisture. So again, there are currently low pops in the extended, and above normal temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s, but the trend of pulling back from upper 90s to maybe mid 100s in a couple isolated spots, and just how much moisture is pumped up from the Eastern Pacific through the NM area, suggests that we are likely going to see some of those showers and storms across the area. While severe weather is not currently a concern, we`ll have to keep an eye on things if we become more active with higher precipitation chances. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 As of this evening, latest radar was seeing some storms try to develop to the southeast and northwest of the Panhandles. However, these storms are also struggling to get anywhere close to our area, which has been something supported by current CAM analysis. For now, confidence in impacts to any of the terminals remains low, so have left all sites at VFR for the present package. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...11