Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 280909
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
509 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be hot and humid again with an afternoon thunderstorm
possible. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will come
Sunday and Sunday night, with locally heavy rain possible during
that time. Drier and more comfortable weather returns early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
450 PM...A repeat of yesterday in terms of heat and humidity.
Temps should inch another degree or two higher than Friday
afternoon`s highs, which will put our urban areas around 90. With
upper level ridging being stronger than yesterday, and no apparent
lifting mechanisms upstream that are forecast to impact our area,
storm chances should be lower than yesterday. Still all model
guidance generate at least the threat for an afternoon storm, so
will maintain a 30% chance across much of the area. A slightly
higher threat appears to be over the northern Finger Lakes, due in
part to possible smaller mesoscale triggers such as a lake breeze.
With dewpoints well into the 60s, patchy fog or haze likely again
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
450 AM Update...

Our best shot at showers and thunderstorms, some of which will
produce locally heavy rain, will be Sunday and Sunday night.
During this time upper level heights fall as a trof lifts north
through the great lakes. The concern is for locally heavy rain in
any storms or showers Sunday afternoon/night with precipitable
water (PWATS) values above 1.50 inches. A higher threat appears
to be over northeast PA into Sullivan County, NY. Here a plume of
tropical moisture (partly associated with a tropical depression)
but mainly in part to the flow around an area of high pressure
over the Atlantic will lift northward. As this plume of moisture
lifts north along the east coast, the northern extent looks to get
into NEPA and the Sullivan County, with PWATS above 1.85. While the
entire area is at risk for heavier periods of rain due to a moist
atmosphere, NEPA and Sullivan County appear to be most likely to
see the longest period of rain at the moment. Antecdent conditions
are not super wet, with Flash Flood Guidance values on the order
of 2" in 1 hour or 3"+ in 3 hours needed to cause problems here.
The concern is more with a tropical airmass in place, rainfall
rates could cause problems in urban areas (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
or terrain areas (Sullivan County, NY). I added this wording to
the HWO to highlight this threat.

Monday looks much drier than previous forecasts with much drier
air moving into the area. Still with a cold front expected to pass
through the area, maintained at least a chance for showers and an
isolated thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 am Saturday update...
On the large-scale, the models remain similar with previous runs,
so only small changes were made to the existing forecast. The
latest ER Superblend was incorporated.

Quiet weather is still expected Tuesday through most of Thursday,
as short-wave ridging prevails across the Northeast. The air mass
will remain warm, supporting near to above normal temperatures
(highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s).

The approach of an upper-level trough from the west, along with a
surface cold front later next week, will provide our next chance
of showers and thunderstorms. The models remain quite divergent at
this time as to the progressiveness of these systems. The European
model continues to advertise faster movement, thus only indicating
convective potential Friday, with drier/cooler weather for next
weekend. The GFS, in particular, is much slower, and would have
showers and storms last well into the weekend. There is much
uncertainty in this regard. For now, we have chance POP`s Friday
into Saturday. Hopefully, better model consensus will be seen in
future runs.

Previous Discussion...3 pm Friday Update... High pressure will
build in from the west across the forecast area early in the week
with quiet weather conditions expected. The upper ridge and
surface high shift to the east by the middle of the week prior to
the next period of showers and storms along a slow-moving cold
front Thursday into the early part of the weekend.

High temperatures will remain warm and steady in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Overnight lows will also remain steady...dropping into
the mid to upper 50s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Due to higher surface dew points and localized wet ground from
yesterday`s scattered showers/storms, light fog/haze will be
fairly widespread through about 12-13z (mostly MVFR restrictions).
The two most likely sites to experience a period of thicker
fog/IFR restrictions are KELM and KRME.

Otherwise, generally VFR/unrestricted conditions can be expected
for the remainder of the period. Once again, hit and miss showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated later this afternoon into the
early evening. If impacted by this activity, brief restrictions
could be expected. However, scattered coverage/uncertainty this
far out precludes such strict mention in the terminal forecasts.

Light winds early this morning, will become SW at 5-10 kt later
this morning through the afternoon. Winds will turn light again
after about 00z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday-Monday...Mostly VFR. Brief restrictions may occur in
showers/thunderstorms each afternoon. Some Sunday night
restrictions could also occur in fog/haze.

Monday night-Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog
is possible during the late night and early morning hours each
day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Heden
NEAR TERM...Heden
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...BJT/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF



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