Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 080724
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE
TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES. INITIALIZED
FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE
EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FOR TODAY, MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOLLOWED BY LOW VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z, CIGS
AROUND 4K FT, WITH FLURRIES AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES STARTS IMPACTING AREA.

E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM


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