Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 300250
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1050 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF SOME
DYING THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO MOVE IN. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS, AND DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT WERE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD
OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. SINCE THIS IS STILL
18 TO 24 HOURS OUT AND SO A LITTLE EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON DETAILS
THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY A PROB30 GROUP IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF


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