Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 012225
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
625 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON/S COLD
FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 615 PM... WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND HAS
TAKEN MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. HOWEVER AT 6 PM RADAR WAS STILL
INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD SENECA AND AUBURN. THESE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WILL
STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES SOUTHEAST TOWARD CORTLAND AND POSSIBLY CHENANGO COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BHD THE COLD FNT WILL TRIGGER
SOME ISLTD SHWRS THIS EVE...ENDING AFTER WE LOSE HTG.
OVRNGT...SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW A LOW ST DECK DVLPG AFT MDNGT IN
THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DECK WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AFT SUNRISE
THUR LDG TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN.

HI/S THU WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BLO NRML UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NW
FLOW AND BROAD UPR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
WTIH MANY NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S...
WTIH LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME ONLY SOME VERY PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME VERY PLEASANT SUMMER
WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY JULY 4TH AS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND HAVE GONE
WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE
SCATTERED AND A HOLIDAY WASHOUT IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. THE RESULT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERAURES... HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. NEXT COLD APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN IS GENERATING SHWRS AND
ISLTD TRWS WITH BRIEF LWRD CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLR
THE TAF SITES IN THE NEXT CPL HRS LVG VFR CONDS INTO THIS EVENING.
OVRNGT...MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN MVFR AND PSBL IFR CLD DECK DVLPG
LATE...ESP OVER THE NY STATIONS. THIS DECK WILL ERODE LVG VFR
CONDS IN THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NGT THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN THRU MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MSE


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