Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 232347
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
747 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide off the east coast tonight. An
approaching frontal system will bring a wintry mix late tonight
and early Friday. The front will become nearly stationary over
the area and remain in place right through the weekend with
periods of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 pm update...
Clear skies and high pressure giving way to mid and high clouds
moving in from the northwest. Winter weather advisory continues
for late tonight and Friday morning for some light freezing
rain. Timing and amounts look good. Any sleet will also be light
and well under an inch. Adjustments to the hourly temps and
dewpoints. Still a dry airmass with dewpoints in the single
digits and temps falling through the 30s.

previous discussion...
Satellite shows clear skies as high pressure slides overhead
toward the Mid Atlantic Coast. High clouds continue to spill
over the upper ridge out of the central Gr Lakes, and these will
gradually overspread the region later today and tonight.

Return southerly flow will start to develop across the western
CWA by late afternoon and evening. Models show this increase in
warm advection and the development/enhancement of a warm front
extending all the way back to the parent low coming out of the
front range of the Rockies. As the storm slowly begins to eject
east, the front is made to crawl north or become nearly
stationary over southern NY state.

The big issue for the near term forecast will be the potential
for a light wintry mix to overspread the region later tonight
as the strengthening WSW low level flow helps push a surge of
moisture into the region with the developing warm front. Surface
temps will be below freezing through at least mid morning
Friday. As a result we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
about a 6 hour period of a light accumulation of freezing rain
and/or sleet.

Temps tonight will tend to be a non-diurnal as strong WAA
develops across the region. Lows will be before midnight before
temperatures either become steady or slowly rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The short range guidance suggests a slug of mainly light precip
will slide through the area later tonight through mid/late
morning Friday as the core of the low level jet pushes eastward.
The chances for freezing precip will decrease as readings rise
above 32 in most areas by mid to late morning. What`s left of
the diffuse warm front is made to eventually become strung out
roughly along I-90. The main cold front becomes snaked up north
of the St. Lawrence leaving much of the forecast area in the
milder air by afternoon. The clouds will mean we don`t get too
toasty, but rising into the 40s and 50s will range from near
normal over the NE to several degrees above normal over the SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fairly large N-S temperature gradient will exist early in the
extended into the weekend as the surface boundary oscillates
across portions of the forecast area. This leads to a more or
less redundant mention of showery weather for several days right
into the middle of next week when a storm system is made to
finally bring a frontal system through the region, leading to a
drier second half of the week.

There is a small timing difference for this midweek front with
the ECMWF showing it passing about 12 hours sooner then the
GFS/GEFS. This leads to a reduced confidence in the rainfall
forecast by day 6, so I made minimal changes to the forecast
during this time frame.

There is a higher confidence that drier air will prevail for the
end of the week along with temperatures that will cool to
slightly below seasonal norms as high pressure is tracked just
north of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 pm update...

VFR will continue most of tonight before conditions deteriorate
quickly with the approach of a warm front and a mix of sleet
and freezing rain between 11 and 13z start. This will last 2 to
4 hours before changing to rain as temperatures rise. cigs and
vsbys fall to fuel alternate MVFR with the onset of
precipitation then mostly remain there all day. Some improvement
to VFR vsby and high MVFR cigs at ELM/AVP around 20z.

This evening winds light and variable or calm. During the
overnight east to southeast winds at 4 to 8 kts but winds at 2k
ft increase to 30 to 35 kts so llws added. Friday morning winds
shift to the south at 10 kts then southwest in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...Restrictions likely still with rain showers.

Saturday through Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain. Some
freezing rain also possible Saturday night KSYR-KRME, and Sunday
night for KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC/JL CTP
NEAR TERM...TAC/JL CTP
SHORT TERM...JL CTP
LONG TERM...JL CTP
AVIATION...TAC


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