Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261424
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1024 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
On the back side of a low pressure system, today will feature a
cool northwest wind and scattered showers. Though mostly dry
Saturday through Sunday, weak disturbances could cause a brief
passing shower at times. Our best chance of rain will be Sunday
night, from a wave of low pressure. Scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm can be expected on Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1000 AM EDT Update...
The uppr-lvl low continues to slide to the east today and NW
flow is present in is it`s wake along with weak CAA. The
majority of the area continues to be dry this morning. Scattered
showers may develop this afternoon if some breaks in the clouds
occur and we get some instability over the region, as plenty of
moisture lingers. As plenty of low-lvl moisture will linger
today, mostly cloudy skies will linger as well, thus temps will
remain in the 60s across central NY and mid-60s to low 70s over
NEPA. Made minor adjustments in the forecast, overall the
previous forecast is in great shape. For more information please
read the previous forecast discussion below.

Previous forecast discussion.
320 AM Update... Back side of low pressure system will result
in cool temperatures and scattered showers today, then a general
drying trend and moderating temperatures will take shape into
Saturday though a passing shower still cannot be ruled out.

Stacked low has crossed over Pennsylvania and is centered
roughly over New York City at this hour. Associated with the
cool pool of air aloft and resultant steeper mid level lapse
rates, showers contained some embedded thunder earlier in the
Poconos to Catskills, but instability aloft is waning so
lightning is probably done at this point. We will be on the back
side of the departing low today, with a cool northwest wind and
scattered showers. Early this morning, shower coverage will be
greatest in the Wyoming Valley to Poconos in PA, and up the
Catskills to about Cooperstown in NY. Then today, much of the
time will be dry but diurnally driven scattered showers will pop
up almost at random. Highs will be mainly 60s, though lower
elevations of Northeast PA-Sullivan County NY could get to
around 70 degrees.

Northwest flow will relax yet not completely go away tonight,
and so clouds will be slow to break. Lows will be right around
climatology; upper 40s to lower 50s. We will not really manage
to mix down drier air today, and low level moisture from recent
rainfall will persist, thus patchy fog can also be expected
tonight especially in valleys where holes occur in cloud cover.

Weak high pressure will attempt to drift into the area
Saturday, along with gradual ridging aloft. However, models
still depict a mid level short wave skimming through the area so
a small chance of a quick passing shower will exist from
Central Southern Tier to Poconos; possibly even as far north as
Finger Lakes to Catskills but it will be more doubtful there due
to amount of dry air. Either way, vast majority of day and area
will be rain-free for a decent Saturday with temperatures
moderating into upper 60s-lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update...Brief ridging at the surface and aloft should
keep the area mainly rain free Saturday night into Sunday. Ridge
slides east later Sunday as a low over the lower Great Lakes
pushes into western NY. This will bring a chance of showers late
in the day Sunday in the west and south, and across the rest of
the area Sunday night. Decent little upper jet will result in
good upward motion and widespread rain with even some isolated
thunder possible. Previous discussion continues below...


On Saturday night kept slight chance pops across much of
central New York and northeast Pennsylvania as this wave pulls
east. Low will be in the 50s.

Sunday is not looking as wet as yesterday`s model runs. A mid
level short wave in southwest upper level flow will swing
through the region during the afternoon as the surface low
tracks from the Ohio Valley into southern Pennsylvania. Will
continue with likely pops in the central southern tier and
much of northeast Pennsylvania and chance elsewhere. Highs will
once again range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday night looks to be the wettest period and will
continue with likely pops as surface low pressure moves from
the Ohio valley northeast into nearby southern Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update...very minor changes made to the extended
forecast. Simply tweaked the temps and pops in a few periods to
the latest guidance. Previous discussion continues below...

Medium range models are in fair agreement during the extended
period indicating a upper level low will slowly track from the
vicinity of Lake Superior northeast into Quebec by Wednesday
with the trough possibly relaxing by Thursday. Overall a very
unsettled period with a chance for showers each day through
Thursday. Temperatures through the period will be near
seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure is passing through the region, resulting in
restrictions and in some cases showers. Winds will pick up out
of the west to northwest today as the low pressure moves past.
Improvement to high end MVFR WILL occur for KELM-KBGM during
the day, and KAVP even getting to VFR. But KITH-KSYR-KRME will
likely persist at fuel alternate required for most if not all of
today. Then tonight, ceilings will lower again and patchy fog
will occur, as winds go light and variable.

Outlook...

Saturday...Lingering ceiling restrictions for some terminals early,
then VFR except brief passing showers possible KELM-KITH-KAVP.

Saturday night through midday Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Late Sunday through Sunday night...Showers/restrictions likely.

Monday through Tuesday...Brief restrictions possible from
scattered showers and perhaps thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM/RRM
LONG TERM...DGM/RRM
AVIATION...MDP



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