Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 021920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION. TODAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH.
DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE IS PRESENT... EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO
THE 60S TONIGHT.

THE QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG... AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BROAD LOW THAT HAS
BEEN NORTH OF US THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE
ATTENDANT WITH A AND A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL
RANGE FROM 30-40 KNOTS... SBCAPE WILL BE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG... LOW
LVL LAPSE RATE WILL BE AROUND 8 C/KM... AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE AROUND 6 C/KM. THE MENTIONED VARIABLES ABOVE... COMBINED
WITH A DECENT UPPR LVL JET THAT WILL MOVE OVR THE REGION... MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ATTM WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES AS THE EVENT MOVES
CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS MONDAY EVENING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUNSHINE WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN END
OF HUDSON BAY AND CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER NY STATE WHERE THE AIR WILL BE COLDEST
ALOFT. MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 35
TO 40 K KTS BUT MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL
FORCING AND ANY SEVERE RISK LOOKS LOW. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
BE NEARLY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR COOL CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ON THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS INDICATING A CHANCE
OF RAIN THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH
A SECOND SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... HOWEVER
THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN BRINGING SOME RAIN AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY LATE THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS... THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TSRA.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH



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