Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 240937
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
337 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN /SNOW ABOVE 7500/
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL AXIS THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ROME
OREGON TO JEROME IDAHO...WILL LIFT NORTH OF BOISE AROUND 6
AM...BAKER AND MCCALL AROUND 3 PM...AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A SMALL THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO WEST HARNEY COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH...FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER...THIS
FORCES MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPLIT AFTER THURSDAY CONCERNING
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND
MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE
GFS PLACES THE MOIST UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PREDICTABILITY CHARTS FAVORED THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAINS OBSCURED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
BECOMING VFR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY 21Z ALL AREAS. WARM SECTOR
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR
/IFR ABOVE 5K FT SUNDAY/ SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW
10-25KTS LATER TODAY AND 15-30KTS SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40KTS THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 30-50KTS
SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO WEST SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....VM



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