Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 231011
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
411 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING
PRECIPITATION AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE
TRENDING HIGHER WITH QPF TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PLUME WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD FRIDAY VIA A WARM
FRONT. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. 700 MB WINDS OF
35-45KT FAVOR TERRAIN FOCUSED PRECIPITATION...WITH MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 1.25 INCH OF QPF. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN
OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER 9000FT SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME AND
7500FT MSL NORTH AND WEST OF MCCALL. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS SW
15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SENDING A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH WARMING FRIDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS WINDY BUT
MILD IN A WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT LIFTS NORTH FROM BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING. MILD WARM SECTOR BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER
OREGON EARLY SAT. AND SW IDAHO MOST OF THE DAY...AHEAD OF
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRING ABUNDANT SHEAR BUT BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA SO NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION NOW. BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY UNTIL
A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SW IDAHO PROBABLY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN 12Z PACKAGE. BREEZY AND COOLER
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES BY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STILL
SIMILAR WITH DRIER NW FLOW MONDAY AND WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE W
FLOW TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GFS/EC
ARE NOT IN PHASE OVER THE INLAND NW THOUGH BOTH HAVE SOME
TROUGHING OFFSHORE /AS DOES THE GEFS. SO WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE 7000FT MSL...POSSIBLE IFR IN
KMYL. GENERALLY VFR SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM REO-MUO.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SE 5-15KT IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BREEZY SW 15-25KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON...LIGHT WINDS MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WSW 30-45KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



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