Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 280352 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Boise ID
940 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...Have just updated West Central Idaho Mountains for
more showers and thunderstorms this evening, and lasting til just
after midnight, as radar shows increased activity there. at 925 PM
MDT spotter at Yellow Pine (ene of McCall) reported numerous
lightning strikes and heavy rain. (end update)


.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear. Isolated thunderstorms over Baker
County, Oregon, and the west central Idaho mountains before 06z.
Surface winds northwest around 10 kts becoming variable less than 10
kts after 06z. Winds aloft at 10k feet msl west 10-20 kts.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...A weak frontal boundary
across the Wallowa Mountains toward the north central Idaho
mountains will continue to trigger isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon mainly northeast of McCall. This boundary will slowly move
south late this afternoon and overnight. Isolated showers are
expected mainly across the higher terrain of the Owyhee and Boise
Mountains as the frontal boundary moves south. Drier and slightly
cooler northwest flow arrives on Wednesday, pushing the moisture and
instability toward the southeast. A slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon across the higher terrain south
of the Snake Plain, and the central Idaho mountains.
Dry conditions expected on Thursday as upper level ridging begins
to build into the Pacific NW.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...Upper level trough will
exit Thursday night as a ridge builds in over the region.
Temperatures will increase slightly each day as the ridge amplifies
and a thermal trough moves through. The ridge will not reach its
maximum potential however as a shortwave trough moves across the
Canadian border Saturday suppressing the ridge`s growth. There is a
slight chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms Saturday night with
the trough passage from the Wallowa Mountains east through the West
Central Mountains. The ridge will rebuild in its wake come Sunday
with temperatures continuing their climb. Upper level flow turns
southwesterly Monday as a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest,
bringing temperatures down Tuesday as it moves into the area.
Temperatures will be 3-8 degrees above normal through the period.





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