Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBOX 201112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS EXCEPT FOR CHILLY
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY. WARM WEATHER TUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED BRINGING
SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WED
INTO THU WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...CAUSING
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY
FRI...THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
710 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL HAVE VEIL OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. SATELLITE
TRENDS WERE SHOWING CLEARING NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING...PUSHING TO MASS BAY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NE WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT TO E BUT TEND TO
DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS. SHOULD SEE THE HIGH CLOUDS
FINALLY PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW 60 DEGREE
READINGS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN
CHILLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST...HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION...BUT ITS RIDGE
WILL ELONGATE W-E ACROSS THE REGION AND SHIFT DOWN ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. MAY SEE SOME
CLOUDS HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WIND FLOW IN PLACE WILL
START OFF FROM THE E...THEN WILL VEER TO SE-S OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT...WITH CALM CONDITIONS AT MANY
LOCALES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H85
TEMPS STARTING TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING LOWS TO BE QUITE AS COLD AS
THIS MORNING WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...
WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT ANOTHER
PLEASANTLY DRY DAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. S-SW WINDS WILL BE IN
PLACE...AND WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH. H925 WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT...SO THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE GENERAL
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST THOUGH WILL BE ONSHORE ACROSS S
COASTAL AREAS. MAY NOT MIX DOWN QUITE AS MUCH THOUGH...SO SHOULD
SEE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. H85 TEMPS RISE DURING THE DAY...TOPPING
OFF FROM +7C TO +10C...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH COULD TOUCH 70 ACROSS SOME LOCALES ALONG THE CT
VALLEY. READINGS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL OVERVIEW...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT
AND TUE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND WED AND DEVELOP
INTO A DEEP CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WED NIGHT AND THU.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
FRONT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WED INTO THU WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
CAUSE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WED
AND ON THU. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...RATHER SIMILAR TO THE ONE DURING
MIDWEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OR PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS
TIME.

HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM TUESDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
* STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE GALES LATE WEDNESDAY
  AND THURSDAY.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH COMFORTABLE
LOWS HOLDING IN THE MID 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 925 MB TEMPS TO
WARM TO +11C EASTERN AREAS TO +15C WESTERN AREAS. THE MORNING WILL
FEATURE SUNSHINE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR THROUGH
THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MUCH
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WEAK SEA BREEZES COULD ALSO
DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND EXIT THE COAST EARLY WED. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... BEGINNING IN WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE TUE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THIS FRONT. TOTAL TOTALS INDICES APPROACH 50...TQ INDICES ARE
17 TO 18...AND K INDICES OF 31. THESE MIGHT INDICATE THAT A RUMBLE
OF ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT OTHER
STABILITY INDICES SUCH AS THE SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE IN
POSITIVE TERRITORY...SO THIS IS NOT A BIG RISK. COULD SEE UP TO
0.60 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
FRONT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS DIFFER A
LITTLE IN MAGNITUDE AND TIMING BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT 40-45 KT
WINDS AT BOTH 925 AND 850 MB PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT
AND THU. THE BEST MIXING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THU. WE COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30-35 MPH OVER THE LAND AND GALE FORCE GUST
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN COLD
ADVECTION AND WARM APRIL SUNSHINE. THE NET RESULT WILL BE COOLER
WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS NEAR 60 BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BUT CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S.

SATURDAY...AS DESCRIBED IN THE MODEL SECTION ABOVE...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SYSTEM IS SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM DURING MIDWEEK.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER WE WILL BE QUITE WET...OR WHETHER
IT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST...KEEPING US DRY AND WINDY. FOR
NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHANCE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOME NE AROUND
10 KT THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO E-SE AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TO S TONIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO
AROUND 10 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS IN WESTERN MA/NORTHWEST CT LATE
TUE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO SHOWERS. LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE WED AND 30-35 KT
POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OUTER WATERS. HAVE
KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NE WINDS TO START OFF WILL VEER TO E-SE DURING THE
DAY...BUT EXPECT MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
GENERALLY LIGHT SE WINDS BECOMING S.

MONDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD WITH FEW S/SW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON
TUE...INCLUDING SWELLS FROM A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SEAS AGAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...NW GALES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO PERHAPS 40 KTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-8 FEET OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...WITH 9 OR 10 FEET POSSIBLE WELL TO THE EAST OF NANTUCKET.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES AS THE TIME GETS
CLOSER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING REMAINS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAINSTEM CT RIVER.
RIVER LEVELS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY THIS MORNING THEN RECEDING.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...EVT/GAF
MARINE...EVT/GAF
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.