Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 290206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE CENTRAL HILLS...THE HILL
COUNTRY FROM NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY TO NORTHEAST CT AND
NORTHWEST RI. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
COATING TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 3 INCHES.

RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PCPN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH RI
AND OFFSHORE. EXPECT REMAINING LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 2-3 AM. LAST TO GO WILL BE THE ISLANDS
AND CAPE COD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER THAN 3 AM. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SNOW IS
OVER THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PREVIOUS AMOUNTS WERE A LITTLE MORE
THAN A COATING.

PRESSURE RISES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE BEEN UP TO 4 MB PER 3 HOURS
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT AND
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR NORTH AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 3 AM
MOST PLACES AND 4-5 AM CAPE AND ISLANDS. MOST AREAS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...WTB/BELK/GAF


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