Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 240505
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
105 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
105 AM UPDATE...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA...IN FACT MOST OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR N EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF AREA...FROM MID TO UPPER 30S NW TO
40S/NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE
TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS
AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS AS OF 1 AM...WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED.
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO EXPECTED
25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT ON
OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
FIRE WEATHER...EVT



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