Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



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