Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 270216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT
VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK...HOWEVER FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL REMAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS
SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED HAVE REDUCED POPS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR LOWER 50S IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO TREND SE OUT
OF OUR FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY SUN. FREEZE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS LOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PLUS A MID-LEVEL CAP. THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT. BELIEVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND AN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING BELIEVE THE CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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