Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 281021
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
621 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Fair and warm conditions will continue over the weekend into next
week. A weak front, with limited moisture, will move into the area
today and become diffuse. A weak dry front moving through late
Sunday/early Monday will reinforce dry conditions early to mid
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current weather analysis indicates weak cold front near
the Delmarva area extending southwestward through central Virginia
into western North Carolina. Water vapor imagery shows the main
upper trough axis crossing the mountains. Mesoanalysis data
suggests the highest precipitable water values (around 1.00 inch)
is shifting to the east of the forecast area.
Decreasing atmospheric moisture along with developing
northwesterly downsloping flow will prevent any precipitation
along the front as it drops southward through the forecast area
this morning. Surface winds will shift to the north behind the
front but there will be little change in the air mass as the
front becomes diffuse. Expect skies to be mostly clear today
through tonight with plenty of dry air in the mid and upper
levels. Temperatures today will be well above normal with highs
in the lower to mid 80s while overnight lows tonight will fall
into the mid 50s.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and mild weather continues over the weekend with surface high
pressure centered over the forecast area on Saturday then
shifting offshore by Sunday allowing a southerly flow to develop
over the region. An upper level ridge will move over the area
Saturday then the 500mb flow flattens on Sunday in advance of an
approaching shortwave trough which will pass by to our north off
the Mid- Atlantic coast Sunday evening allowing a weak backdoor
front to push into the region. Moisture again will be limited
with this front and no precipitation is expected.
High temperatures will continue to be some 10-15 degrees above
normal this period with max temperatures in the mid to possibly
upper 80s and approach record highs. Low temperatures will also
remain mild in the mid 50s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Little change made during this period. Surface high pressure will
remain entrenched over the region through mid week while a
building upper ridge over the southeastern states will ensure
continued warm and dry conditions. Temperatures will remain above
normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s.
Late in the forecast period the medium range models show the
upper ridge over the southeastern states retrograding westward
allowing for an amplified upper trough to dig down the east coast
but there are some differences in timing between the GFS/ECWMF
leading to low confidence in possibility of precipitation at this
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak surface ridge axis to our south, with surface boundary to
our north. Fog formation early this morning hampered by some thin
cirrus and a SW boundary layer wind around 20 kt indicated by
latest ACARS soundings at CAE and KCAE 88D VWP. Exception is fog-
prone AGS where variable VSBYs in localized ground fog in
progress. Some possibilities exist of MVFR VSBYs at OGB early
this morning. Removed mention of tempo restrictions at the other
terminals. Otherwise, after any morning fog dissipates, expect
VFR conditions today. Surface boundary to slowly push to the S/SW
over the region today, hanging up near the CSRA as an inverted
trough tonight, leading to relatively light and gradually veering
winds today. Continued fairly high dewpoints, with lighter winds
and premise for clear skies, will promote some fog possibilities
late tonight/early Saturday morning,especially at fog prone
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Late night/early morning fog
Record High Temperatures 10/28-10/31
10/28 10/29 10/30 10/31
CAE 90/1984 86/1919 88/1984 88/1950
AGS 89/1984 85/1996 90/1984 89/1961