Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 071320
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
920 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST TODAY WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST SO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WEST AND 1.8 INCHES EAST.
THE SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
ONLY SHOW ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS
UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
SEA BREEZE WORKS INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON.  WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.  BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 4000 FT DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.

LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS SUPPORTS
ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10
KNOTS OR LESS...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY EVENING. A 25
KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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