Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 191642
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1142 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry weather is forecast through Tuesday with
unsettled weather from Wednesday through the end of the week.
Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal for much of
this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The dry pressure ridge moving into the forecast area from the
west will extend through the area late tonight. It will be dry.
The NAM and GFS MOS support wind northwest near 10 mph this
afternoon and light tonight. Despite light wind and strong
nocturnal cooling tonight there is a diminished chance of fog
because of the dry air mass as indicated by the NAM and GFS MOS
plus SREF guidance. Followed the guidance consensus for the
temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models in good agreement through the short term period.
Surface high pressure will exit to the east Tuesday. This
pattern will bring dry weather and unseasonably warm
temperatures to the region. Kept temperatures near guidance
consensus for lows in the 40s and highs ranging through the 70s
Monday then upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will move farther out to sea Tuesday night as the
remains of a frontal boundary move toward the area from the
northwest...while an area of low pressure develops along the TX
coast. The front along with low chances of rain will move
through the area Wednesday as the area of low pressure moves
into the central Gulf of Mexico and becomes less organized. This
will leave the forecast area under easterly flow for Thursday
and Friday as deep low pressure tracks from the Central Plains
into the Western Great Lakes and pushes a cold front to the Gulf
Coast. Models have significant differences in timing of the
cold front into the Midlands and CSRA...however they agree a
cold front will cross the area Friday night or Saturday.
Temperatures through the long term will continue well above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The dry pressure ridge moving into the forecast area this
afternoon from the west will be near the area tonight. It will
be dry. The NAM and GFS MOS support wind northwest near 10
knots this afternoon and light tonight. Despite light wind and
strong nocturnal cooling tonight there is a diminished chance of
fog because of the dry air mass as indicated by the NAM and GFS
MOS plus SREF guidance. We maintained VFR conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....Moisture associated with an
onshore flow may help bring widespread MVFR or IFR conditions
Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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