Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 241008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE-
ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SMALL INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM JUST OFF THE
MIDDLE-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
OCCUR WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING
FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE SHOULD
REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATE POPS OF 20 TO 60 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING APPEARS A LITTLE LESS DOMINATE. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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