Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 310547
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Remains of Bonnie currently along the central SC coast will move
very slowly to the northeast over the next couple of days. This
will keep plenty of moisture across the area along with chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Showers
and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast late in the week and
through the weekend as a frontal boundary stalls over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Remains of Bonnie currently located just off the SC coast near
Georgetown and moving very slowly to the east northeast. Latest
composite radar indicating scattered showers mainly offshore of
the Carolina coast. Latest SPC HRRR continues to show little
convection during the overnight period so have lowered pops into
the low chance category primarily from CAE eastward. The remains
of Bonnie will move very slowly so expect clouds to linger
especially over the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee. Lows tonight
will be in the middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The models depict a lingering surface trough near the forecast
area in the wake of low pressure moving northeastward slowly. Weak
upper troughing is also indicated. However, the models display
deepest moisture northeast of the forecast area. The pattern
supports scattered showers and thunderstorms especially during the
times of maximum heating. Followed the guidance consensus for the
pop forecast. Also used the consensus for the temperature
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The medium-range models display surface troughing remaining through
much of the period. The models show the upper pattern mainly flat.
The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 30 to 40 percent through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The remains of Bonnie will move slowly east northeast during the
taf period. Clouds will linger overnight...especially across the
eastern Midlands with light and variable winds. High levels of
low level moisture presents the potential for restrictions
overnight. The absence of a strong inversion may favor CIG
restrictions across the Midlands. However cloud cover should be
more scattered at AGS/DNL raising the fog potential. MVFR CIGS at
CAE/CUB and OGB are expected late tonight/toward morning...
potentially dropping into IFR.

Today with deeper moisture moving to the northeast there will be
a chance of scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Best
chance will once again be across the extreme eastern portion of
the cwa and Grand Strand. North winds around 6 kts will continue
into the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning restrictions
possible each morning. Low confidence in restrictions in afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through Thursday...with
increasing chances Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77


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