Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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161
FXUS62 KCAE 131131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND
INTO THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL BE CLEAR TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND GFS
LAMP INDICATE WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION LATE ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP FORECAST. USING
THE TOP-DOWN METHOD WITH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. THE MODELS HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME PLAIN RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE COLD
AIR WILL LINGER LONGER IN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH.

USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
EXCEPT USED THE LOWER GUIDANCE MONDAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEP MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG H85 JET. THE MODELS HAVE
QPF OF 0.25 TO 1 INCH WITH THE ECMWF FORECASTING THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. THE MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE
COAST. WE HAVE FORECASTED A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE. THE MODELS
SHOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DEPICT DRY RIDGING IN THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 6-9 KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL JET.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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