Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 300131 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA AND DIMINISHED
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME CONVECTION SOUTH OF BURKE COUNTY AND NEAR THE
CHARLOTTE AREA. PWAT VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. WILL HOLD ON TO A
SMALL POP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND DIMINISH THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS RECOVERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALREADY.
HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO FOG.

88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED WEST
OF THE CWA/TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD MORNING.
GUIDANCE SPLIT ON POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR
TO IFR. HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT MVFR FOG AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE CSRA WHERE SHRA/TSRA MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE FIELD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 4 TO
6 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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