Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 240629
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
129 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to ridge into the area from the
north while low pressure will lift northeastward from Florida
along the stalled frontal boundary off the coast. A dry cold
front will cross the region Saturday night, with high pressure
building into the region for Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis is currently just west of the forecast
area but will shift eastward across the region today. Stalled
frontal boundary remains off the coast and any precipitation is
expected to be focused along this boundary well east of the
forecast area. Atmosphere is quite dry with GOES-16 derived
precipitable water plot showing values around 0.3 inches.
Expect mostly sunny skies today with only a few passing high
clouds and warmer temperatures compared to Thursday. Highs will
range from around 60 in the northern Midlands to mid 60s in the
southern Midlands and CSRA.

Tranquil weather continues tonight with surface high pressure
centered over the forecast area. Near ideal radiational cooling
conditions expected with mostly clear skies and calm winds with
a dry airmass in place. There is the possibility of some higher
clouds arriving late Friday night ahead of an approaching upper
trough and cold front which may have some impact on low
temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Southwest flow at the surface will bring warmer weather on
Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. However, another
broad upper trough will move in, and a cold front will swing
through the area Saturday night. Dry conditions will persist
with little impact other than some cloudiness, as moisture
appears limited in a NW flow aloft. Lows Saturday night will be
mostly in the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cooler and drier air will follow Saturday night`s front, and high
pressure will build into the region Sunday through Tuesday,
providing fair conditions. Frost and freezing conditions will be
possible Monday and Tuesday mornings with lows mostly in the mid
30s.  Both the latest GFS and Canadian models continue to show a
closed low tracking across the southern U.S. and into the OH Valley
mid-week. The warm front will bring lift temperatures into the mid
60s to low 70s on Wednesday, but there is uncertainty about how much
if any rain will fall. Have kept a slight chance of showers in the
forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr forecast period.

Stalled frontal boundary off the coast will continue to be the
focus for showers as an upper trough passes over the area today.
These showers will remain well east of the terminals. Satellite
showing clear skies over the region with a dry airmass in place
with surface ridging from the northeast. Expect mainly clear
skies through the forecast period with near calm winds through
12z then picking up from the northeast around 5 knots after 15z.
No fog expected due to dry airmass in place.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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