Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 201558
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTH MIDLANDS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAISED THE TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. ALSO REMOVED POPS AS MOISTURE FLUX
IS SHIFTING TO COAST.  LATEST RAP AND LAMP SUGGEST SUSTAINED
WINDS BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING LATER TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT BECAUSE WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY COOL START AND
CLOUDINESS AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TIMING WILL BE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-4 TO -5 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE MAINLY CUT OFF. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE
REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FRIDAY BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATO- CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS...DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
BY THIS EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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