Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 302349
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
749 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will linger near the coast through the weekend with
dry and cooler air filtering into the region. A gradual moisture
increase is possible next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cold front remains along the coast with drier air over the
forecast area and temperatures quickly falling. Winds have become
5 mph or less and will become light and variable over the next
couple of hours. With clear skies across the area combining with
the light winds radiational cooling conditions will be optimal
overnight. Expect overnight lows generally in the mid 50s and
slightly lower in outlying locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The closed upper low over the ohio valley will shift toward New
England. Model Time-Height sections indicate air mass dry. Models
suggest weak cold advection but with cool bias for maximum
temperatures stayed on the warmer side of guidance with mainly
southwest low level flow. Strong radiational cooling so forecast
minimum temperatures below guidance. So mild days and cool nights
with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper closed low will shift east towards New England...while
surface high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard. Some
premise for low level moisture recovery with possible low level
flow off the Atlantic developing. Will be monitoring Hurricane
Matthew currently forecast to move west through the Caribbean...then
turn to the north. The GFS has a more western track than model
consensus including ECMWF. Solutions keep storm offshore at this
time. The threat from the storm appears low although uncertainty
mid to late week. Based on 12z pop consensus mainly dry forecast
although moisture may increase in the east resulting in a few
diurnal showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 24 hr TAF
period.

A cool and dry airmass will remain across the region through
Saturday. Generally clear skies through the period with a few
passing mid-level clouds circulating around the closed upper low
located over the Ohio River Valley. The dry air mass in place
will preclude fog development at the terminals. Light and
variable winds overnight will become southwest 5 to 10 knots
by 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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