Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 201432
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
932 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS RADAR HAS SHOWN ISOLD
WEAK SHRA`S...AND ONE TSRA...MVG NE JUST N OF THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHIFTING MORE N AND AWAY
FROM THE CWA. DESPITE HIGH CIN VALUES ACROSS THE CWA...FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHC DUE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION...PER THIS MORNING`S CRP SOUNDING. OVERALL FCST LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO
REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 14Z. MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. ROUTE 281 THIS MORNING THEN AREAWIDE DRG THE AFTN/EVENING.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 AND WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS AND NAM GENERALLY
AGREE THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS TX TODAY YET WITH THE
BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE CWA. THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THEN MOVES A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACRS THE
CWA/MSA MONDAY AFTN. NAM PROGS LOWER CIN VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA
THIS AFTN AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTN. THE NAM ALSO PROGS
PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL DRG THE PERIOD. THUS ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION DRG THE PERIOD. BOTH SFC-BASED (ESPECIALLY
CNTRL/WRN CWA DRG THE AFTN HOURS) AND ELEVATED (OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA) CONVECTION IS PSBL. CONSISTENT WITH SREF PROB OUTPUT...
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NERN
CWA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...DUE TO LGT
SFC WIND AND NEAR SFC MSTR/LAYER OF DRIER AIR IMMEDIATELY ABOVE
THE MOIST LAYER (NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS.)

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHEAR ABOVE THE CAP WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...DECREASING MOISTURE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW CALLING FOR
MODERATE LEVELS OF MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION SLIGHTLY
LONGER AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP...SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 20%
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION AS THE LAST GOOD MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE
PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALOFT WEDNESDAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL (BUT
STILL PRESENT) BY THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR OFF THE SURFACE WILL
GENERALLY LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOONS...AND
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCEC/SCA LEVELS OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  66  81  65  83  /  20  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          79  63  81  64  84  /  20  20  20  20  20
LAREDO            82  68  88  67  92  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             81  65  84  65  88  /  20  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          74  66  75  66  78  /  20  20  20  20  20
COTULLA           81  65  87  65  89  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        81  65  84  65  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  67  75  66  79  /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






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