Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 281530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1030 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016


Removed fog from zone forecast. Fog took longer to dissipate than
expected. Adjusted temperatures accordingly, as some areas
temperatures are much lower due to the fog. Adjusted clouds and
temperatures somewhat. However...based on sounding, do expect
maximum temperature forecast today to be in the ballpark enough
not to change at this time although temperatures may be a degree
or two cooler in some locations due to the sustained east flow and
lingering clouds. Showers continue to develop near the coast and
some of these may move inland later this afternoon...especially
south. HRRR and NSSL showing some sea- breeze activity this maintained rain chances. No other changes needed at
this time. Products have been updated. No change to the marine


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 629 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...Please see the discussion below for more details.

AVIATION...Patchy MVFR/IFR conditions across mainly northern
areas will dissipate by 14-15Z this morning. Otherwise, most areas
will remain at VFR through the day. Isolated showers will be
possible today, mainly between 17Z and 22Z across the southern
Coastal Bend. More widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to
develop after 08Z Saturday across inland areas, especially
Victoria and Alice.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...Sufficiently deep boundary
layer moisture, steep low level lapse rates, and boundary layer
convergence will produce isolated showers across portions of the
CWA today. This is in line with the past few runs of the SREF and
HRRR. Dry and capped air aloft should mostly limit activity to
just showers. Moisture advection will continue through Saturday
as a mid/upper low approaches from the east on Saturday. The
result will be PWATs rising to around 1.5 inches across the
Coastal Bend and adjacent waters by Saturday. Will therefore
maintain slight chance to low chance PoPs across mainly the
southern and eastern areas on Saturday. Aftn highs will be
tempered slightly by the increased moisture but will still remain
above normal through the pd.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...Models have
consistently shown a mid/upper level high pressure system tracking
east across TX Sat night through Mon. This will allow increasing low
level moisture to advect across the gulf waters and into S TX. By
Tue, the upper level high pressure is progged to be located across
the NE gulf while a long wave trough swings across the western U.S.
This allows moisture in the mid and upper levels to move across the
region from the Pac. This could lead to PWATs of near 2 inches by
Tue. In a nutshell, waves of moisture are progged to approach S TX
during the extended with rain chances expected to be the highest Tue
and Wed. The increased moisture/clouds will result in slightly
cooler mx temps and warmer mn temps through the middle of next week,
but remaining above normal. Winds will generally be onshore through
the period with moderate speeds at times. Models also continue to
show longer swell periods and elevated seas Sun-Wed. This may lead
to minor tidal overflow and an increased threat of rip currents at
times through the extended period.

MARINE... A moderate gradient due to broad high pressure
anchored across the Deep South and broad low pressure in the
Caribbean will persist through the weekend. These conditions will
maintain persistent 8-9 second period swells of 3-5 ft to affect
the coastal waters through Saturday. The result will be a moderate
to high risk of rip currents along with minor tidal overflow. For
now, it appears that tides will remain below 2 ft MSL. However,
the wave run-up due to these long period swells may warrant a
coastal flood advisory for this weekend mainly from Port A
southward. Will continue to monitor. At the minimum, a rip
current statement will be needed on Saturday given the high risk
of rip currents.


Corpus Christi    87  66  87  68  87  /  20  20  20  10  10
Victoria          88  63  87  63  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo            89  66  88  67  90  /  10  10  10  10   0
Alice             88  62  88  64  89  /  20  10  20  10  10
Rockport          84  69  84  71  84  /  20  20  20  10  10
Cotulla           89  65  88  65  90  /  10  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        88  63  88  66  88  /  20  20  30  10  10
Navy Corpus       84  72  84  72  84  /  20  20  30  10  10





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