Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 181139 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION TO THE NNW OF THE VCT TERMINAL CONTINUES
TO SINK TO THE SSE THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL. INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALI/LRD
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SE TODAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT ALI/CRP/VCT WITH BEST CHANCES AT THE VCT TAF SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOW SAG TO SOUTH THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH THIS COMPLEX. UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE BEST SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION...AND HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 90S OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH PWATS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NONETHELESS...THERE
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONCERNING THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK...MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
CONTINUE. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOLLOW. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO AFFECT FROM THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE GFS AND CMC MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY SOUTHERN POSITION WHICH WITH THE AIDE OF A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WOULD HELP ELONGATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW IN
MIDLEVELS...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...KEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  91  76  91  75  /  20  40  20  20  20
VICTORIA          75  91  74  93  75  /  30  50  10  30  10
LAREDO            77  96  78  96  78  /  20  30  20  30  20
ALICE             76  93  74  93  75  /  20  40  10  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  90  78  90  78  /  30  40  20  20  20
COTULLA           76  95  76  96  76  /  30  30  20  30  10
KINGSVILLE        76  93  75  93  75  /  20  40  10  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  89  79  91  79  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




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