Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 281009
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
409 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Short wave trough over the Desert Southwest early this morning
will move quickly east-northeast into the southern and central
plains this evening and through the Mississippi River valley
Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low level flow of 35-40
knots early this morning will move to the east today with the
trough/dryline moving into southwest Texas late this afternoon.
Shallow moisture will be trapped beneath a strong inversion over
South Texas this morning and then advected to the north of the
area by this afternoon. Southwesterly flow at 85H will bring in
very warm air with temperatures at or above 20 degrees C. Will
lean toward the higher MAV guidance for highs today with readings
15 to 20 degrees above normal. Cold front will be moving into
region around 12Z Wednesday. Very limited moisture in advance of
the cold front will keep rain chances low with the best chance
being over the Gulf waters on Wednesday. Forecast soundings show
sufficient instability to warrant keeping thunderstorms in the
forecast. Cooling behind the front does not arrive until late in
the afternoon with winds increasing substantially over the Gulf
waters toward 00Z Thursday. Highs will still be above normal by
around 10 degrees for Wednesday.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Cooler and drier conditions are expected by Wed night in the wake of
the cold front. These conditioins are expected to continue through
Thu. As the flow becomes more NE to E, low level moisture will
increase along with increasing temps and humidity. Models have
backed off on precip for Fri, but do show moisture pooling along the
Rio Grande. Have lowered pops to silent 10 percent for Fri for now.
By Sat, an embedded short wave is progged to move across the area
and overrunning conditions are progged to set up. This will lead to
-RA/-SHRA developing across S TX with the better chances of precip
across the eastern CWA. By Sun, instability is progged to increase
as a stronger embedded short wave tracks across S TX. This will lead
to continued rain chances with a slight chc of TSRA`s. Another short
wave Mon is expected to bring additional showers/thunderstorms to
the area. Did not go as high on pops as the superblend due to
inconsistencies in the model runs.
Advisory conditions are expected Wed night in the wake of a cold
front with a strong northely wind developing in its wake. Mod to
strong winds are expected through the end of the week into the
weekend with advisory conditions through much of that time frame.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 89 69 82 53 69 / 10 10 20 10 10
Victoria 86 68 80 47 68 / 10 20 20 10 10
Laredo 96 67 85 52 70 / 10 10 10 0 10
Alice 93 66 84 50 70 / 10 10 20 10 10
Rockport 81 70 80 54 67 / 10 10 30 10 10
Cotulla 93 65 84 49 70 / 10 10 10 0 10
Kingsville 92 67 83 52 70 / 10 10 20 10 10
Navy Corpus 85 70 80 56 67 / 10 10 20 10 10