Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 210520
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1120 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 06z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR conditions expected overnight/early Sunday morning, with
LIFR conditions possible near the coast due to sea fog. Non-
convective LLWS anticipated for ALI during the early morning hours
Sunday (elevated surface wind over CRP/VCT will preclude LLWS.) A
transition to VFR west/MVFR east during the afternoon. Isolated
showers may develop mainly over portions of the Victoria Crossroads
Sunday afternoon. Expect predominate MVFR ceilings, and MVFR/IFR
visibilities due to sea fog near the coast, to return near the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 608 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 00z TAFs.

AVIATION...

A rapid transition to MVFR/IFR ceilings is expected during the
00-003z Sunday period. MVFR/IFR visibilities expected areawide,
yet due to sea fog near the coast. Non-convective LLWS anticipated
at ALI during the 09-15z Sunday period (wind not quite strong
enough aloft over LRD, and surface wind significant at CRP/VCT.)
MVFR/IFR conditions expected during the morning hours followed by
a mixture of VFR west of state road 16, and MVFR/IFR ceilings
east. Generally light south surface wind overnight, followed by
increasing wind speeds over the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads
during the late morning/early afternoon before speeds decrease
somewhat in advance of a weak surface trough.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Mid level s/w ridging is moving overhead this afternoon and
aiding in significantly warmer temps today. This s/w ridge will
shift east of the area tonight with a strong s/w trough then
digging into the southern Rockies tonight. Result will be
deepening sfc low pressure across the TX/OK Panhandles and
resultant strengthening wind fields across S TX.

A southerly LLJ is prog to strengthen tonight across the CWA (to
around 40 kts at 925mb) which should keep the PBL from decoupling
completely. Despite non-light sfc wind speeds tonight...pooling
of moisture under a strengthening inversion around H85 should
still lead to reduced visibilities tonight along with the
development of a rather thick stratus deck (developing rather fast
across the Coastal Plains this evening and eventually across the
Brush Country overnight). Moisture advection/southerly flow will
generally prevent temps from falling out of the 60s for overnight
lows (better chances of upper 50s along the Rio Grande where
moisture depth and wind speeds will be weaker).

Aforementioned s/w trough digs into W TX and W OK on Sunday with a
sfc front shifting south and east across TX. Moisture from H85
and above will be kicked east out of S TX which will result in
little to no precip occurring across the area. Best chance of a
shower should be strongly confined to the VCT area. Unseasonably
warm temperatures should occur once morning stratus mixes out as
warm H9 to H7 thermal layer mixes down...with several areas likely
flirting with 80 degrees in the afternoon. Breezy to windy
conditions will also be common once skies start to clear with the
strongest winds confined to the Coastal Plains.

The surface front will progress towards and across the area Sunday
night with mainly clear skies prevailing along with cooler min
temps and weak to moderate NW winds.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Cold front should be at least into the marine zones by the beginning
of long term period if not all the way through the area. Only an
SCEC conditions is expected in marine areas with a moderate to
strong offshore flow. Upper level low associated with the front will
move from the midwest to New England Monday/Tuesday as weak ridging
builds aloft. At the surface, ridging builds over Texas Monday and
gradually moves eastward by Tuesday shifting surface flow from
northerly to easterly. Mid-week, a coastal trough will try to
develop south of the area, but should have difficulty lifting to far
northward with high pressure remaining strongly in control...and
even being reinforced. Have some low end pops for mainly southern
portion of area Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, surface ridging
weakens over the region with a more onshore flow developing. This
will allow a more widespread slight chance PoP. Next cold front
could come through by Saturday night. Only have slight chance pops
at this time, but if moisture advection were to be stronger, could
get a better moisture pool ahead of the front for higher pops.

With a relatively stable airmass through the period, will see high
temperatures not chance too much. Highs will generally be in the 60s
area wide with Wednesday being the coolest t around 60 as the
reinforcing ridge sinks into the area. Min temps will be generally
in the 40s through Thursday night then gradually increase with the
increase in moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  77  54  68  46  /  10  10  10   0   0
Victoria          61  76  52  65  40  /  10  20  10   0   0
Laredo            58  78  48  70  44  /  10  10   0   0   0
Alice             61  82  51  69  43  /  10  10  10   0   0
Rockport          62  74  54  66  49  /  10  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           57  77  42  69  39  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        62  81  52  70  45  /  10  10  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       64  74  56  65  49  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...
     Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
     Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     out 20 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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