Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 271054
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ALI/VCT/LRD ARE CURRENTLY MVFR. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
VCT TAF SITE...HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW...THEREFORE WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE VCT TAF AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO LESS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND A CAP. A
FEW WEAK -SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO
SPEED CONVERGENCE. THEN THROUGH NOON OR SO ACROSS THE NRN CWA
..SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND A WEAKER CAP ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION.  BY TONIGHT...SPEED CONVERGENCE AND BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION.
RAIN CHCS INCREASE ON THU BY A LITTLE BIT WITH A CHC ACROSS THE NRN
CWA. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE BEST CHCS WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED IS LIGHT
PATCHY MORNING FOG. DUE TO SOILS REMAINING VERY MOIST ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...MX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WHILE MN TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE. ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK...BUT MAY APPROACH HIGH AT TIMES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BAD NEWS/NOT AS BAD
NEWS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BAD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT
BETTER IS NEW IS THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING WILL (NOT
TERRIBLY STRONG BUT THERE). THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO MOVE
TOWARD THE CWFA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE 18Z TTU MODEL IS
KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH (00Z RUN IS NOT
THAT FAR YET AND OTHER 4KM MODELS DO NOT GO OUT THAT FAR). SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVELY GOOD CAP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO IN
SHORT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FACT THAT PREVIOUS
IMPULSES WERE STRONGER AND MOISTURE ADVECTION/MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WAS BETTER. IN ANY CASE CHANCE POPS NW THURSDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY ALL AREAS BUT OFFSHORE. A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION (BUT
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN) FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS
BUT THIS BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...FORTUNATELY (AT LEAST FOR NOW) THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS NOT FABULOUS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK SINCE THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE FROM THE CONTINENTAL U.S. AS
OPPOSED TO THE PACIFIC PLUME. SLIGHTLY DRIER AFTER MONDAY BUT STILL
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION
AS THE BETTER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA AS OPPOSED TO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
AM GOING WITH CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY (MORE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR FRIDAY IF CLOUDS/RAIN ARE
PRESENT)...THEN A BIT COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. AM GOING 80S AREA-WIDE FOR SUNDAY AND NEAR 70 TO
MID 70S FOR LOWS (WHICH WILL FEEL BETTER THAN THE HIGH DEW POINTS WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS OF LATE). AFTER MONDAY...NOT TOO MUCH AWAY FROM
THE SUPERPLEND BUT GENERALLY NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  77  87  76  88  /  10  10  20  20  40
VICTORIA          89  74  87  73  87  /  20  10  30  20  40
LAREDO            94  78  95  76  92  /  10  10  20  30  30
ALICE             92  76  90  75  91  /  10  10  20  20  40
ROCKPORT          86  79  86  78  88  /  10  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           93  75  91  74  89  /  20  10  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        91  77  89  77  89  /  10  10  10  20  40
NAVY CORPUS       86  79  85  78  86  /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


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