Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 260523 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...PRETTY STRAIGHT-FORWARD AVIATION FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AND NO
BIG AVIATION CONCERNS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME BORDERLINE WIND SHEAR (SPEED) AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH LESS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY WITH A BIT STRONGER CAP...NEGATIVE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (STRONGER WINDS
MEAN LESS ABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TOO). SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH SEA-BREEZE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS AT KALI AND KCRP AND LESS AT KVCT. WINDS PICK UP AROUND
SUNSET AT KLRD BUT DIMINISH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. MODELS PROG PWAT`S TO DECREASE ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT
BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SHRAS ACROSS THE
WATERS TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF
WATERS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRAS WITH A
10 POP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IN THE MORNIING. WILL UPDATE COASTAL
WATERS TO INCLUDE THE MENTIION OF MORNING SHOWERS AND WILL UPDATE
ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP. REST OF FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF KLRD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...AND EXPECT WINDS AT KLRD TO INCREASE TO WEAK TO
MODERATE FLOW THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH
GUSTS AOA 25KTS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. DRIER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT FORECAST FOR
THE DAY TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT AN
UNSEASONABLY MODERATE TO STRONG SRLY LLJ IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN HALF OF CWA. THIS MAY AID IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLVL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE. A DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY AND AN INCREASE IN H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN
A DRIER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COMBINATION OF HOT MAX TEMPS AND HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW SOME LOCATIONS TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH MOST AREAS HAVING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES. WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZIEST OF THIS WEEK
AS STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
CWA. LLJ REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD AID IN KEEPING
MIN TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR A SECOND NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY A MORE POTENT FRONT AND S/WV WL BE AFFECTING THE CWA.
THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENING AS IT DROPS FURTHER SWD.  INCREASING
DEEP LAYER FORCING AND PWATS ABV 2 INCHES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
SLOW-MOVING FRONT WL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY.  DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.  OVERALL THE SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD TEND TO MIX OUT AND KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVY CRITERIA.  WENT ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS BY
FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR AND RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING THAN PAST SEVERAL EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  96  77  95  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  96  76  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 103  78 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  99  76  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  91  80  90  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 101  76 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  98  77  96  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  92  80  91  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




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