Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 110020
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE
GUSTY IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
RETURNED TO SOUTH TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION. TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TOMORROW
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW DEVELOPS THOUGH...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AREA WIDE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES DOWN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. HIGHER WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW EVENING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN
TO RECOVER WITH ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING MORE SURFACE MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER...THE DRY AIR MASS THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
REGION THAT PAST SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS OVER SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES 15 TO 25 PERCENT INLAND AND
25 TO 40 PERCENT COASTAL. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH
THESE LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW EVENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING
MORE SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND THE RH VALUES WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...RIDGING ALOFT WL MAINTAIN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FCST PD.  DRY CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY AND STABLE.
HOWEVER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WL BE AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE
DEPTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND NORTHEAST AREAS TO SUPPORT A
FEW SHOWERS.  THIS WL BE DUE TO A PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING S/WV AND ASSCTD COLD FRONT.  GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE
AND FORCING...WL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR
THE NORTHEAST AREAS.  AFTERWARDS ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR WL ADVECT
INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT.  ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT WL BE MOSTLY THE PACIFIC VARIETY.
OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  81  55  79  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          47  79  55  77  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            49  84  51  84  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             47  84  53  81  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          56  75  56  74  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           46  83  49  82  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        45  83  55  80  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       55  75  57  74  59  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...AVIATION


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