Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
FXUS61 KCTP 270943
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
543 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Low pressure over southern Michigan early this morning will track
across Lake Ontario this afternoon. This system will keep cool and
wet weather across the Keystone state today. Some snow will mix
with the rain across north central PA at times this morning. Milder
weather will occur this weekend, as high pressure builds across
the southeast states. A weak cold front from the upper Great Lakes
may bring a chance of showers to the area for the later part of
the weekend. However, most of the weekend will be on the dry side.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
One band of snow and rain moved across the north central area
earlier. Another large area of precipitation moving across the
north again at this time. Snow grids look good. Expect the area
that might have picked up some accumulation to be from near BFD to
northwest of IPT.
After about 13Z, expect the precipitation to become lighter and
less widespread, and temeratures warm enough that the precipitation
will be in the form of rain.
As the low moves across the eastern part of Lake Ontario later
this afternoon, that winds will shift more to the west, and the
rain will taper to just a few showers.
Main thing going for the rain early today is the strong warm
advection. Did not make any large changes to the fcst, may add
thunder to the fcst, if it holds together.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The airmass behind the departing low is not as cold as what we
had ahead of it. A few rain showers possible tonight and early
Friday morning. Minor adjustments made to the fcst package.
The main thing will be the wind early Friday. Downstream blocking
should allow northern stream energy to phase with the lead trough
and eventually result in a negatively tilted trough over the
Northeast U.S. by Friday morning. Models show the formation of a
triple point low deepening along the coast into the Canadian
Maritimes by Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Trend has been for slightly milder conditions on Saturday and
less chance of showers, especially across the south. Did edge
temperatures up a little, and decrease POPS some.
For Sunday, still some chance of showers, as the next front
drops southward toward PA.
High pressure builds back into the area from the north and west
early next week. Temperatures should average normal to above
normal. Main changes was to bring temperatures up a little
here and there, and take out low chance POPS.
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect deteriorating conditions early this morning, as rain
overspreads the area ahead of approaching low pressure. Model
soundings, as well as latest SREF output, suggest IFR conditions
are possible at KBFD after 11Z.
Predominantly MVFR cigs expected across most of Central Pa during
the daylight hours. However, an upsloping flow is likely to yield
lower (IFR) cigs at KBFD. At KJST, models indicate arrival of sfc
warm front and drier sw flow is likely to bring predominantly VFR
conditions for much of the day. A core of strong winds aloft will
lead to marginal LLWS conditions across parts of Central/Northern
Pa today. Will also have to watch for the possibility of a PM
thunderstorm accompanying the trailing cold front during late
For much of the area, expect improving conditions behind the cold
front, as a drier northwest flow arrives tonight. However,
residual low level moisture ascending the Allegheny Mtns will
likely result in persistent MVFR cigs at KBFD/KJST through Friday
Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.
Sat...No sig wx expected.
Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, esp N and W.
Mon...No sig wx expected.