Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 252141
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
541 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada
will keep it slightly cooler than normal through the first part
of the week. Widely scattered showers may still pop up each
afternoon through Tuesday, mainly across the northern third to
half of the state. A warm up and return of higher humidity will
occur mid to late week. Several chances for showers and
thunderstorms are in store for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Forcing in the form of a weak short wave trough crossing the
lower lakes is coinciding with the heat of the day and is
causing numerous shra and just a few ltg strikes in wrn NY and
NE OH. Expect these conditions to be replicated over our nrn
mtns shortly, but forcing slides to the east and we lose
heating later this afternoon. So, best timing of shra is
through 21Z in Warren Co and through 00Z in Tioga Co. As with
yesterday, the llvl air is very dry, so smaller and fast moving
shra may not even wet the ground.

After the showers move to the east, the only feature of note is
a very slight sfc trough made to move off the lakes. This
feature may be a mid-lake convergence band due to the
abnormally warm lake water and cooler-than-normal air temp.
This feature could produce a shra or two along the LE shore and
has a tiny chc to make a shra in the far NW late this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Monday looks very similar to the weekend with an afternoon
shra/tsra passing quickly across the nrn tier. Temps a little
cooler aloft and heights a little lower Mon than today, so there
could be more shra/tsra coverage on Mon. Have kept the POPs in
the likely category in the NC mtns and mention shra as far S as
the turnpike. Max temps will probably be a few degs F cooler
than Sun with 8H temps about 2C cooler in mid-aftn. Deep mixing
and June sun should still push us back into the m-u60s N and
m70s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Seasonably strong large scale upper trough will slide overhead
Mon night into Tue, accompanied by a dying front that will erode
as it moves into area of surface high pressure centered over
Virginia.This will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity
for widely scattered showers/isolated low-topped thunderstorms
on Tuesday, especially across northern portions of CWA.
However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with
below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal
temperatures relative to late June climatology.

The trough will lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the
middle of the week bringing cooler and dry weather, followed by
a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge for late week.
A trough developing over the upper Midwest will bring increasing
southerly flow ahead of its attendant frontal system and will
result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures and low level
moisture/humidity starting Thursday. Expect max/min temps to
rise above normal levels for the weekend along with an increase
in convective activity - especially over NW half of CWA.
Convection will be more scattered over the SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak short wave trough aloft is overhead now and sliding east.
Additional forcing will coincide with the peak heat shortly and
drive scattered SHRA/TSRA across the northern tier - including
KBFD.

Radar shows KBFD is under the gun during the next hour /21z-22z/
to see a heavier shower or TSRA move across the airfield, so
have included a tempo group here. Elsewhere, expecting coverage
to be too low to mention in TAFs.

A little valley fog possible in the morning, but another day of
deep mixing will make it less likely for us to see fog Monday
morning than we did this morning. No mentions of fog are
necessary at this point. Winds pick back up again Mon by 14Z,
but should be less gusty than today. A repeat of peak
heating/instability shra/tsra are possible on Mon and Tue -
mainly if not exclusively across the N.

.OUTLOOK...
Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north.

Wed...VFR.

Thu-Fri...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KCCX radar has been brought back on line temporarily (as of
Sunday afternoon), but further outages are expected through at
least Monday evening. This outage is allowing the technicians to
install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades.
The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential
impacts to operations.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Jung/Dangelo
EQUIPMENT...



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