Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 240050
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
750 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off to the east on Friday. A cold front
will bring some light rain showers on Saturday. This will be
followed by a shot of colder air, with scattered light snow
showers over parts of the Northwest Mountains and Laurel
Highlands Saturday night into Sunday. A prolonged period of
mainly dry and seasonably mild weather is then in store.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Cloud watch in effect as the only clouds are a mid-deck across
the northern third of the area and sliding to the east. Low
level flow is light be more from the southwest, and will nudge
the stratus to our north through the early part of the night.
Lows tonight will be just slightly below average with light
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure in control to start the day Friday will drift
eastward as a frontal system approaches from the west (due to
move through Saturday). Plenty of sunshine for Friday as
temperatures rise to seasonal normals in the lower to mid 40s
across the north and around 50 in the southeast. Light winds
will pick up a bit from the SSW in return flow around departing
high pressure, with some mixing bringing gusts to 15 mph to the
NW mountains in the afternoon.

Fri eve starts off mainly clear, but clouds will quickly move in
from the west Fri night as SW flow increases. This will keep
overnight lows in the 30s, with the warmest readings likely to
be over western portions of the CWA as WAA brings rising temps
there late. Coldest readings will be in the Susq Valley where
radiational cooling will be more prevalent with lighter wind.
Precipitation in form of rain showers will be nearing the NW
Mountains by 12z Sat, with best rain chances during the day on
Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z models are in fair agreement on the timing of the upper
level trough. The cold front will approach the region on
Saturday. Scattered rain showers will be out ahead of the front
on Saturday, followed by a period of lake effect snow showers
Sat night into Sunday. There is as another blast of seasonably
chilly air that will charge across the relatively mild waters
of the Grt Lks. ECENS and GEFS both support below normal
temperatures Sunday, as deep upper level trough swings over the
northeast states.

As has been the case all fall, the colder weather will be short
lived with dry weather and mild temperatures returning for at
least the first half of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly clear skies with VFR conditions into late Friday.

Not a bad afternoon outside for late November, hope all
have a good Thanksgiving.

Outlook...

Fri Night...LLWS developing NW half.

Sat...Chance of rain showers mainly over NW half, changing to
snow showers Sat night. Cig restrictions likely NW half.

Sun...Chance of snow showers across the NW in the morning.
Otherwise no sig wx expected.

Mon-Tue...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Ross/RXR
LONG TERM...Ross/Ceru
AVIATION...Martin



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