Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 300313
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LEADING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS
ARE AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM
INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOMERSET AND
GARRETT COUNTY (MD). EVEN THOUGH RICHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
IN AND WESTERN OHIO...WILL BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS THE VORT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND TRACKS OVER MY
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 06Z TO 09Z.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT
IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY ADVECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LA CORTE


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