Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 041958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ADDED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR.

ALSO STORMS SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER...AN INTERESTING WEATHER
PATTERN.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VIZ SATELLITE SHOWS A TIDY SWIRL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS SPEEDING ALMOST DUE EAST OFF THE
COAST.

THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE
CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO
EVENING COOKOUTS OR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR
WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EARLIER TODAY...DRYING ALOFT ON TOP OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRIME
INGREDIENTS FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GORGEOUS WITH LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO WHAT NORMAL IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.