Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 020108
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
908 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH TOMORROW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES COVERED MOST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH A WEAK
SPOKE OF VORTICITY WAS WRAPPING SWWD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW /ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST/ LEADING TO A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES /THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY TONIGHT/ WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS FOR AN
EVENING IN EARLY EARLY OCTOBER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF 1/4-1/2SM FOG
ONCE AGAIN. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AND COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z THU.

EVEN THOUGH WE EXPECT THE CLEARING TO LAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTED NWWD
UNDER THE INVERSION OF THE INCOMING MID AND UPPER-RIDGE WILL
BE LIFTED OROGRAPHICALLY AND LIKELY CREATE A STRATUS DECK AND/OR
FOG. WILL MENTION THE FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN THE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LITTLE MIXING TO BE HAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...SO
THE FOG/STRATUS WHICH DOES FORM COULD TAKE MORE THAN JUST A FEW
HOURS TO BURN OFF. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD INSTEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW OF WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD TURN OUT MUCH SUNNIER...AND
ALMOST NO CHC FOR A SHOWER. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE - MAINLY AT IPT AND JST/AOO AS
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD AND STABILITY COULD LOWER JUST
ENOUGH. NOT ENOUGH OF A COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCLUDE IN MOST
TAFS...AND WILL EVEN HOLD OFF MENTIONS FOR NOW AT THOSE THREE
TERMINALS. THE DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE INTIAL CLEARING - BUT MDLS CONTINUE TO
SLIDE MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL MTS ON LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT
S/ERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL BRING ANOTHER STRATUS DECK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL SITES. PERHAPS ONLY BFD WILL REMAIN MCLR
OVERNIGHT. BUT FOG IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING. THE
LIGHT E/SE WIND DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CLEARING/DISSIPATION OF THE
FOG AND ANY MORNING STRATUS THURS AM. BUT THEN VFR SHOULD RULE.

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BE A SRLY WIND
WHICH COULD MAKE LLWS ON FRIDAY....BUT GUSTS WILL BE MORE-LIKELY
AS MIXING BRINGS THOSE STRONG 30-35KT WINDS DOWN. THUNDER IS
EXPECTED LATE FRI AND THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER SAT AM
IN THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR


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