Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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953
FXUS61 KCTP 031438
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ANY SHOWERS OFF TO THE EAST. WEAKNESS IN
PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE W/SC MTNS STILL EXPECTED TO ALLOW SOME
CONVERGENCE THERE THIS AFTN/EVENING. SOME SUN BREAKING THROUGH THE
CLOUDS OVER THE LAURELS AND JUST A BIT BRIGHTER OUT THE WINDOW
HERE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-10 RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING. SOME OF THESE SHRA
COULD SLIDE INTO THE SUSQ VLY THIS EVENING. BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING
SHRA/QPF DURING THE PERIOD AND SREF ARW MEMBERS TILT THE MEAN POLT
THAT WAY AS WELL. CURRENT HRRR/RAP RUNS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. EVEN
THE GFS WHICH IS WIDER/MORE GENEROUS WITH LIGHT QPF IN WEAK
CONVECTION IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM. HAVE CHOSEN TO STAY
THE COURSE AS CURR FCST IS RIGHT IN LINE - ABOUT MIDDLE OF ROAD TO
MAYBE JUST A HAIR TO THE NAM SIDE OF THINGS. THUNDER CHC IS VERY
LOW WITH A MILD SOUNDING OVER 10KFT. DEBATED PUTTING SOME MENTION
IN...ESP IN THE SC MTNS.

PREV...
PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE OF THE STRATIFORM VARIETY ALONG AND
TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA.
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG TO PLAGUE THE AREA
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCH FCST OVER THE
SE 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN PCPN
COVERAGE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIRES
GUIDANCE /HRRR-SSEO-NCARENS/ ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS NEAR INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA BY 19-20Z. TRIED TO PAINT THE
HIGHEST POPS/QPF IN THIS GENERAL AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO EXPAND SHOWERS ENEWD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED LOW SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON WED INTO THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC BY THURS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING WWD INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSING QPF BUT THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EC/CMC. FELT A BLENDED APPROACH WOULD WORK BEST HERE FOR DAYS
2 AND 3 WITH THE MAX PRECIP PROBS GENERALLY SHIFTING FROM WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE OF A DEFORMATION PCPN LOOK
WRAPPING NWWD INTO ERN PA AROUND CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW PRES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC GETS ABSORBED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST
CONUS. THE 03/00Z ECMWF MOS TEMPS ARE TRENDING COOLER/BELOW NORMAL
VS. GFS FOR MOTHERS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTED AND CIGS ALSO LIFTING AT MOST TERMINALS. BREAKS CLOSE
TO JST/AOO SHOULD HELP THEM MIX BETTER/HIGHER SHORTLY.

PREV...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF
SITES AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF
SITES. EXPECT THE CIGS AND VSBY TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH IFR AND MVFR COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY.

MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS SE PA ARND NOON
TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTN. UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA BY LATE AFTN.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THRU
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU



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