Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 301154
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
754 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial
Day. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for
midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region
from the Great Lakes by late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Batch of light to moderate rain exiting eastern Pa at 09z assoc
with passage of weak shortwave. Radar trends and latest HRRR suggest
lingering -shra ovr our eastern counties will taper off by arnd
dawn. Focus will then shift toward weak cold front pushing into
the region from Ohio. No precip noted along this boundary at 09z.
However, diurnal heating/pre-frontal destabilization should result
in sct convection developing along cold front later today. Both
NCAR and SSEO paint ball displays indicate initial development of
shra/tsra across the central mtns by early aftn, with activity
shifting into the Susq Valley during late aftn and early evening.
Relatively modest CAPE and wind shear profiles point toward a
limited risk of svr wx. Slightly stronger mid lvl flow indicated
across northeast Pa, where SPC paints a marginal svr wx risk late
today.

Guidance continues to indicate a fair amount of mid/high
cloudiness streaming north from remnants of td bonnie over
southeast PA...while a fair amt of sunshine appears likely over
the rest of central Pa. Highs should range from the upper 70s to
the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Any lingering evening shra/tsra across eastern Pa should diminish
by late tonight, as weak cold front slowly pushes thru. Clearing
skies, light wind and wet ground in spots will likely lead to
patchy fog late tonight.

Ridging at sfc and aloft build into central Pa Tuesday, bringing
fair and warm wx. Mdl soundings support msunny skies and high
temps from the u70s ovr the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s ovr the
Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All med range guidance still indicating fair/warm wx Wednesday, as
upper lvl ridge crests ovr the region. Low lvl flow expected to
turn to the east, likely resulting in a slightly cooler day across
the eastern half of the state.

Not much spread noted in med range guidance thru late week, with
bulk of solutions tracking upper low north of Pa, as slow-moving
sfc cold front works into Central Pa either late Thu or Friday.
Highest (chc) Pops in the extended fcst will coincide with passage
of this cold front. However, both ECENS and NAEFS indicating a
deepening upper trof across the Grt Lks/Ohio Vall next weekend,
which would likely mean cooler and potentially showery wx for Pa.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial
Day. A ridge of high pressure will build in for midweek.

A blanket of mid/high clouds lingering over the east kept fog
from developing there. Sct vsby restrictions mainly over the west
will mix out by 14z. Overall, a VFR Memorial Day is in store for
central PA, with just a chance for showers and isolated TSRA
bringing potential for brief local reductions, mainly confined to
se half of cwa during a several hour period in the mid/late
afternoon. This will be followed by high pressure and more
settled weather building into the region through midweek /with
early morning patchy fog/.


OUTLOOK...

Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

Thu...Chance of showers/tstms west. A.M. cig reductions poss
west.

Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with
restrictions poss.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Fitzgerald
Near Term...Fitzgerald
Short Term...Fitzgerald
Long Term...Fitzgerald
Aviation...RXR



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