Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 021211
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
811 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER ON THE UPDATE HERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU


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