Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 180105 AAA
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
605 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...

Sent a 6 PM update tonight simply to adjust the near short term
grids with the latest hourly model consensus data for winds and
sky cover and blended that to recent observations. Generally
expecting virga showers to continue diminishing and drifting
eastward tonight.

BMickelson

Previous short term discussion: Expect generally benign weather
across the region in the short term. Some mid- to high-level
clouds associated with a narrow strip of vorticity on the back
side of the passing trough will provide the most significant cloud
cover for the next several days. As the trough moves out, winds
pick up tomorrow in its wake for the afternoon and look to
generally be blustery during the afternoon hours of the next few
days as southwest winds develop at the surface, sitting underneath
the northwest flow that is the lee side of the upper-level ridge
which is going to replace the trough over the region.

Bigelbach


.LONG TERM...Sat night through Fri...

Afternoon Update: The long term forecast was in relatively good
shape as it was, thus not too many changes were needed. The main
story is still generally the same, though it seems with the
morning models some higher uncertainty returned in terms of
precipitation potential next Wednesday and Thursday, thus some
additional PoPs were added to the forecast to cover this new
variance in solutions.

Bigelbach

Previous long term discussion: An upper ridge over the western
U.S. will begin to advance eastward and extend into northeast
Montana. Expect height rises to lead to warmer temperatures on
Sunday with highs in the 40s. A few locations southwest of Fort
Peck Lake could even see temperatures reaching for the 50s. The
large scale subsidence will also mean a continuation of dry
weather conditions.

Latest 00z models continue to bring the next shortwave and surface
cold front through the region by about Monday. As this happens,
the ridge will break down and somewhat cooler temperatures will
return to the area by Monday night and/or Tuesday. Will maintain a
slight chance pop for much of the area as this system initially
pushes through.

Models generally bring a ridge pattern quickly back over the
Western U.S. by the middle of next week in what may continue to be
a fairly progressive weather pattern. This would mean dry weather
and a return to the mild temperatures at that time.

As model solutions diverge beyond the midweek, the forecast was
thereafter largely trended toward latest consensus blends for now
given associated increase in uncertainty.

Maliawco

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all NE Montana TAF sites
throughout the TAF cycle, with some mid-level ceilings from time
to time.

Winds will remain from the NW or W, light tonight then increase to
around 10-13 kts on Saturday.

BMickelson



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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