Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 100234
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
734 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. FOCUS WAS PUT INTO ADDING
SOME DETAIL TO THE FORECAST IN THE FORM OF HOURLIES. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON A SMALL CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXIST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO CWA IN SHERIDAN COUNTY AS AN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY WANDERS BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO WEST. OTHER
THAN THAT... SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE OR SKY AND WIND FIELDS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS PUTS NE MT UNDER A NW FLOW REGIME.

A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD, ONE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW LOOKS TO GENERALLY DROP SE NEAR THE SASK/ND/MT
TRIPLE POINT WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO FOLLOW. SOME MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT BUT LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED UNLESS TEMPERATURES
ARE COLDER. THEN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY.

THE FRONT BACKDOORS INTO CENTRAL MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DROPPING SE THURSDAY ALONG THE FRONT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT WITH MOISTURE LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NE ZONES, AND
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BUT ONLY A HALF-INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES AS THERE WILL
BE ABOUT A 30 DEGREE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TFJ


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INHERITED LONG RANGE FORECAST STANDS WITH 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
PRETTY MUCH IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO BETTER ENSURE COLLABORATION...BUT ELEMENTS LARGELY ON TRACK.
SHORTWAVE FOR THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE APPARENT. HOWEVER QPF APPEARS LIGHT AT
THIS TIME. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS CONUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WEST AND A LONG- WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A COLD LOW CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY. LOCALLY...NE MONTANA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE RIDGE AXIS WALKS ITS WAY EAST ENDING UP OVER NEMONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

OFF TO THE WEST A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/WEAK STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC-NW. THIS WAVE WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE DIVIDE LATE
SATURDAY...SENDING A FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL ENERGIZE SURFACE WINDS TO BRING ABOUT A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN BESIDES SNOW AND RAIN. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF BEHIND THE WAVE...MILD CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A RETURN OF MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO KSDY AND KOLF
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THAT MAY HOLD
OFF NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES.

EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 5 TO 15 MPH.
MICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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