Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 310832
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
232 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ARE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION APPEARS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE
PORT OF OPHEIM EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO CULBERTSON. AS OF THE
WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
FORMING NEAR SAVAGE AND INTAKE. WILL EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. MODELS HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF ACTIVITY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/NAM/HRRR SOLUTIONS WHICH
SEEM TO HAVE BETTER INITIALIZATION.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE SATURDAY..UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TIME TO TIME AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SREF PLUMES
SHOW SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE AHEAD OF TRACKING SHORTWAVES AS THE CWA
REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING. 500MB
HEIGHT FIELD REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIC ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SO EXPECT LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES ASIDE FROM
MESOSCALE INFLUENCE. THEREFORE OVERALL LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 90 THROUGH SATURDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA ON SUNDAY THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS ON
MONDAY. A MIXTURE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES... EITHER PACIFIC AND/OR
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS FORECASTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO MONTANA
WITH THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY... IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD BRING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO A TERMINAL EITHER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.