Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 231522
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PUSH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN
AND MODELS AGAIN SEEM TO BE TO OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY. SO INCREASED SKY
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS
AT GLASGOW AND WOLF POINT BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LESS
SUN (TEMPS WERE 14 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST ON THE 15TH...SO THIS CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT). TWEAKED WINDS AROUND GLASGOW AS WEST WINDS PROBABLY
WON/T BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS ANTICIPATED (WITH THE LESSER
THAN EXPECTED MIXING). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...A
SMALL-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY JUST AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN APPROACHING
FLOW TURNED MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS ITS RESPONSIBLE
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MARCHES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TODAYS SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY TURNED
MORE ZONAL BY THE COMPETING PRESSURE FIELD REGIMES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THESE AREAS OF TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL FUNNEL STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA DURING PEAK HEATING. AS SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE FAILED
TO PROPERLY INGEST THEIR FULL COMPLIMENT OF SATELLITE DATA...FELT
IT WAS BEST TO DELAY ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW AND LEAVE IT FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO SERIOUSLY
CONSIDER...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
IT...LIKELY FROM 18Z THROUGH 01Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRONG AND INFLUENTIAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL DIRECT ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.

NO ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. LOOK
FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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