Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS HAS SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE...AND THERE
HAVE BEEN ONLY A FEW UPSTREAM REPORTS OF VIS IN THE 4-6SM SO FAR.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALL HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. IF THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL MIXED DUE TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KT AND BL WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT THEN VIS BELOW
3SM WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY. IF WINDS WERE TO SOMEHOW BECOME CALM THEN
VIS COULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING
THIS ALONG BETTER MOISTURE AXIS IN THE WEST.

I DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF IFR/LIFR VIS AT KGLD AND KEPT
MENTION OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS. I HAVE EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE AT
KMCK WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHTER WINDS STILL CONCERNS ME...SO FOR NOW I KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
PLACE AFTER 10Z. LOOKS LIKE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD STILL OCCUR AT
BOTH TAF SITES BY MIDDAY...WITH VFR THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...DR


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