Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 222320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Quiet weather expected overnight tonight through early Wednesday.
Justification being a surface high pressure system moving over
our CWA enhanced by a short wave ridge aloft increasing
subsidence over the region inhibiting any convective development.
This will result in mostly clear skies with lows tonight in the
mid 50s and highs in the mid 80s tomorrow. Wednesday afternoon, a
700 mb shortwave will move east of the Rockies increasing
precipitation chances mainly over far eastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The extended period will be active over the Tri-State region.
Starting off Wednesday night, there could be some pop up
precipitation over the region due to a shortwave moving within the
upper level ridge over the CWA. Thursday will be a day to keep a
close eye on as the ridge will move east and an upper level
shortwave trough will push into the region. Bulk shear does not look
that impressive but CAPEs are. Severe storms are possible; current
guidance is showing a late afternoon/early evening initiation over
the CWA.

Friday and Saturday will be similar. Precipitation chances are
possible each day due to the lingering shortwave trough over the
region Friday and northwest flow on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday are showing a consistent north, northwest
flow over the region due to a very large ridge over the western
CONUS. This will brings waves of precipitation chances each day.

Temperatures during the period will primarily stay in the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

High pressure over the Central Plains is going to provide both
taf sites with VFR conditions. Looking for a SKC-FEW250 mix thru
the forecast period. As the ridge of high pressure slides east of
the region by Wednesday morning...expected a SE flow around 10kts
to shift to the S around 10kts between 10z-14z. Between 15z-18z
from west to east...gradient will tighten giving a southerly wind




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