Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Lots to talk about today including increasing chance for rain and
snow tonight, snow and wind Saturday-Saturday night and the
potential for very strong winds Sunday.

Have added Wichita county to the Winter Storm Watch. Currently
expecting 4 to 7 inches in the watch area. upper level low pressure area is forecast to
organize near the four corners area by 00z Saturday then drifts
south into west central/northwest New Mexico by 12z Saturday. For
our part of the world am expecting any precipitation this morning to
lift north along or north of the KS/NE border through 18z with
perhaps a few showers developing in the far south. A bit more
coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. Brunt
of the precipitation moves in from the southwest tonight with
highest pops/qpf along and south of the interstate. Rain is expected
to change over to snow for nearly all of the forecast area.
Northeast winds increase late this afternoon and continue through
tonight behind the cold front. Currently expecting 15 to 25 mph with
higher gusts. Tricky high temperature forecast and am aiming at
highs ranging from the mid to upper 40s along the KS/NE border to
around 60 far south. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday-Saturday night...the upper low is forecast to move nearly
due east into east central New Mexico through 00z Sunday then
northeast while deepening a bit near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle by
12z Sunday. Snow is expected to continue in the morning before
slightly warmer temperatures change it over to rain or a mix of the
two. North winds increase into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher
gusts, mainly along and south of the interstate. Snow quickly
redevelops during the night with north to northwest winds of 20 to
30 mph. High temperatures only in the mid 30s to low 40s (south to
north) with low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Sunday-Sunday night...upper low is forecast to intensify while
lifting northeast toward Kansas City by 00z Monday then toward Iowa
by 12z Monday. Precipitation chances decrease through the day
along and west of the CO/KS border with wraparound rain/rain
showers elsewhere. Precip chances continue to decrease overnight.
Main concern during this timeframe is the wind. MET/MAV guidance
winds are in the 25 to 40 mph range with higher gusts possible.
Will have to watch for possibility of a high wind watch if trends
continue. High temperatures warm into the low 40s to near 50 (east
to west). Low temperatures in the low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The extended period will see chances for precipitation during
portions of next week. To start off, Monday is looking to be dry
during the first half of the day and then slight chances for rain
showers are possible in the evening hours. Northwest upper level
flow will dominate over the region during this time but a small
embedded shortwave trough will create precipitation chances.

By the time Tuesday and Wednesday come around a broad low pressure
system will move south out of Canada and bring the majority of the
periods precipitation chances. Greatest chances, according to
current guidance, will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now,
there does not look to be much instability associated with this
system, so there is no mention in storms in the forecast.

Thursday will dry out with the exiting low pressure system. Upper
level flow shifts to the northwest again, with a strong ridge in
place over the western CONUS.

Temperatures during the period will slowly increase. Monday will be
in the mid 50s to low 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar,
potentially reaching the mid 60s in some locations. Thursday will
increase to the mid to upper 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

KGLD, ifr cigs moving in from the northwest and are expected to
remain over/near the terminal for the next several hours. Winds from
the northwest near 10kts. From 16z-02z should see increase in mvfr
clouds and could produce cigs at these levels, especially late in
the afternoon as a cold front moves through pushing northeast winds
to gust around 20kts. From 03z-12z light rain initially expected but
should mix with light snow by 03z changing over to snow by 08z if
not sooner. Cigs in the ifr category with vis in the mvfr category,
winds continue to gust near 25kts from the northeast.

KMCK, ifr cigs predominant type for nearly the entire period with
brief improvements to mvfr category at times. Light rain expected
from taf issuance through about 19z with winds from the east and
northeast around 12kts. Winds increase and gust around 25kts after
08z or so. Light snow expected at the very end of the period.


KS...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
     for KSZ013-027-041-042.

CO...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
     for COZ091-092.



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