Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KGLD 231735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1035 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

Upper ridging will persist through today ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. Surface low will develop over northeast Colorado
associated with the upper wave, with a warm front extending into
northwest Kansas. Breezy southwest winds south of the front will
aid in downslope warming where afternoon temperatures will
reach the upper 50s to around 60. Upper wave will cut off tonight
over northeast Colorado with scattered rain and snow showers
developing late. The system will track across the Nebraska/Kansas
border area on Tuesday with much colder temperatures, scattered
rain and snow showers and windy conditions. Accumulations will be
light, less than an inch, mainly north of I70. Some light
wraparound snow showers or flurries will linger into Tuesday night
before ending, with winds gradually diminishing. Dry but cold
northwest flow is expected on Wednesday with highs in the low to
mid 30s and partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

High pressure builds off the western US during the extended period
with a trough axis in New England. Smaller troughs will rotate
around the larger trough and will remain well removed from the
forecast area through next week. Northwest flow aloft will dominate
the flow pattern across the central High Plains with the exception
of late Sunday, when a fast moving transverse wave briefly shifts
the winds westerly. Dry weather will prevail Thursday through Monday.

Temperatures will remain below average through Friday with a warming
trend expected to take shape as we head into the weekend. Highs will
be in the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday with middle 40s on
Saturday and lower 50s on Sunday. Lows will fall into the middle
teens Thursday night, with lower to middle 20s each night thereafter
through Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1035 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the first 12hr of the TAF
period, with decreasing confidence on prevailing conditions. After
06Z a cold front followed by light easterly flow may bring light
freezing drizzle, freezing fog, and low stratus to KMCK and
possibly KGLD. The timing/axis of main low level moisture push is
still uncertain and consensus of guidance does not support
prevailing lower conditions at this point. I was confident enough
in the pattern to introduce 6sm/3000ft to KMCK for the 10Z-14Z
period, but going forward we may need to introduce IFR/LIFR tempo
groups if consistency increases.

Gusty south winds at KGLD should decrease to 12kt or lower this
afternoon as low pressure shifts east and surface gradient
weakens. Winds will shift to the east-northeast then west at KMCK
through the TAF period as the cold front moves across the region,
and may shift to the west quicker at KGLD. Stronger winds will
develop at both KGLD and KMCK by the end the TAF period behind
this cold front.




AVIATION...DR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.