Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 292014
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
314 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis indicated upper ridging in
place across the confluence of the OH/MS River Valleys, with a large
upper trof beginning to come ashore in the PACNW and TD9 continuing to
churn over Wrn Cuba. Another area of low pressure remains in place
just off the TX/LA coast. At the sfc, E/NE flow prevails across much
of the Southeast this afternoon, with convection beginning to fire up
all around the CWFA, with areas mainly in NW AL locally affected by
the development. This activity is associated with low/mid-level
convergence swath from Srn GA/AL NWwrd to near Memphis. This trend
should generally hold through the next few hours, little/no
convection in the E, isolated/widely scattered convection in the W,
with skies clearing shortly after sunset this evening. As in days
past, gusty winds ~40mph and heavy rainfall will accompany the
stronger activity during this time, with the potential for
microbursts still possible, though not as likely as the past few
days.

Tomorrow`s forecast should be a nearly carbon-copy of today`s, with
lesser rain chances mainly confined to far NW AL. Most areas will
remain dry, with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Heat index values
won`t be as high tomorrow with slightly drier air filtering into the
area from the E (HI`s in the middle to upper 90s).

The weather pattern begins to change by midweek this week with a cold
front setting its sights on the CWFA by Thursday. An upper low
traversing the Ern Canadian provinces will drag a cold front across
the Mid/Upper MS River Valley, with a prefrontal trof set to push
across the area on Wednesday. A few showers and storms will be
possible during this time, with the main front itself arriving
Thursday, bringing drier air for the latter half of the week. Morning
lows by Friday morning will be in the middle/upper 60s for much of
the area (with lower 60s possible in Srn Middle TN). Friday and
Saturday look to be the nicest days of the forecast period, so be
sure to get out and enjoy it! Much less humid conditions will prevail
with aftn highs in the middle to upper 80s Friday, and mid/upper 80s
by Saturday.

The tropics really start becoming active at this point in the
extended forecast, with TD9 set to become a Tropical Storm and make
landfall on the W Coast of FL by Tuesday/Wednesday, mainly affecting
N FL/Srn GA (continuing onto the Carolinas/E Coast). Little/no
impacts to the local area are expected, except dry weather/sunshine
from subsidence aloft. Longer-range models show additional
development of tropical systems arriving in the Caribbean by the
middle/end of next week, but will await further model guidance before
making any official changes just yet.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1230 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: VFR weather should continue into the evening at and
near the TAF sites. Isolated shower/thunderstorm development is
possible this afternoon, however chances remain too low for
inclusion in the TAF. Mostly clear skies and light winds could allow
brief MVFR fog/haze formation before daybreak Tue AM, which was kept
in as a TEMPO group. VFR conditions otherwise are expected for the
reminder of the morning with ENE winds around 5kt.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    71  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
Shoals        71  94  71  93 /  10  20  10  20
Vinemont      70  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
Fayetteville  69  92  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
Albertville   69  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Payne    68  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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