Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 191927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    36  51  33  52 /  70  10   0  20
SHOALS        36  50  31  55 /  70  10   0  10
VINEMONT      36  50  33  52 /  80  10   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  34  47  32  52 /  70  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  53  33  51 /  80  20   0  20
FORT PAYNE    38  54  34  51 /  80  20   0  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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