Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 011548 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES,
DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING, AFTER
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
IS STILL ANOMALOUSLY LOW (PWATS ARE 0.6-0.8 INCHES, OR 40-50% OF
NORMAL) THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
IN PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, REGIONAL WEATHER IS STILL
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE LOWER
(EVEN MIDDLE?) 90S WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, AND MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVER TO MATCH ONGOING
TRENDS, FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 614 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY
FLOW PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO
THE SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC
FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN
EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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