Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 011528 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1028 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. LOWERED POP VALUES FOR THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINTS/WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE THE FOCUS
OF OUR WEATHER TODAY BUT THE CAUSE OF OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS PULLING GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS INCREASE TO ~2 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS PICKING UP
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MCS THIS MORNING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERLY THAN
SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE MCS AT THIS TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WINDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A TSTRM CMPLX MOVG SE ACROSS MO WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AM. TIMING FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS AND VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS PSBL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LATE AM AND EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT...AS
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN TIMING DIFF BTWN
MODELS...DID ONLY TEMPO FOR TSTM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY PM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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