Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 192317
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 154 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L-M60S. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
L-M80S, ML-CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN EASTERN AL ALONG A MODEST CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT ATTM, WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
"TONIGHT" FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS (L-M60S). PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODERATE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES SOME SPOT SHRA AND STORMS
AGAIN, BUT THE POP SHOULD BE 10 PCT OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX DROP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS.
TIMING VARIES BY A FEW HOURS (FASTER GFS/SLOWER NAM), SO HAVE OPTED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A CHC POP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, SO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WX.

FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE NECESSARY WITH A PERIOD OF FINE
WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEK. A CP HIGH IS REINFORCED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND
DRIER STREAMFLOW, ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. MOIST STREAMLINES MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA UNTIL D8-9, SO A DRY FORECAST IS BEING PUBLISHED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROF IS OVER THE SERN US WHILE A SFC
CDFNT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WERE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM.
WILL KEEP VCSH UNTIL 01Z AT KMSL AND 02Z AT KHSV. OTHERWISE EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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