Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231945
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
245 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A deep trough over the intermountain west is keeping a strong
ridge over the east. This set up is starting to open up the Gulf
of Mexico. By this evening, return flow will begins to re-
establish itself over the region. This set up is also allowing
some clouds to develop over the CWA and some isolated showers to
the west of CWA. This will keep the temperatures a little cooler
but still above normal for this time of year. The southerly flow
will continue through the night and into the morning allowing the
moisture transport to increase as the frontal system currently in
Colorado begins its slow march across Kansas. Sunday, the moisture
transport will be sufficient enough to allow for more clouds and
an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. Most of the
thunderstorm activity will be to the west of I-135 during the
afternoon. This increased cloud cover will keep temperatures down
below 90 for the most part with only Southeast Kansas having a
chance to breach the 90 degree mark.

Sunday evening through Monday, the cold front will be making its
slow march across the CWA. Moisture transport will remain strong
and vertical forcing along the front will also remain strong with
significant upper level divergence which will create a highly
conducive environment for convection. This will create wide spread
showers and thunderstorms across the region. The slow moving
nature of the frontal system triggering this convective activity
will allow for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday
night through Tuesday. While forcing and moisture transport
remain good, shear and instability are not, this will keep the
chances for severe thunderstorms very low, but very heavy rain is
likely. Considering the slow moving nature of the frontal system,
many areas could see 1-2 inches of rain from this system. Monday
night, the frontal system will finally push through the CWA but
there will still be some scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
heaviest rain will be further to the east so precipitation amounts
will drop off for Tuesday evening and overnight. Slow clearing
will start to take place overnight Tuesday and temperatures will
drop below normal for this time of year.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The cold front will be slow to move out of the region which will
keep some lingering chances for some post frontal showers and
thunderstorms along the Oklahoma State line in Southeast Kansas.
Rain amounts are expected to remain on the low end by this time. High
pressure will build into the region during the day Wednesday with
the first polar airmass of the autumn season. This will keep
northerly flow across the region for the remainder of the week.
The mid level look to remain dry and the strength of the cold air
will keep the temperatures below normal for the remainder of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Gusty winds now will likely linger into the evening. Diurnal
cumulus should dissipate this evening. Small chance that
precipitation could develop in the vicinity of KRSL/KGBD near end
of forecast, but chances are too low to mention. There is also
considerable uncertainty about the onset of precipitation given
model trends that slow ewd progression of upper trough. -Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  70  89  68 /   0  10  10  30
Hutchinson      91  68  87  66 /  10  10  20  40
Newton          90  68  88  67 /   0   0  10  30
ElDorado        90  68  88  67 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   90  68  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         94  70  83  60 /  20  20  50  60
Great Bend      92  68  84  61 /  10  10  40  60
Salina          94  71  89  66 /  10  10  20  60
McPherson       91  68  87  65 /  10  10  20  50
Coffeyville     92  68  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
Chanute         91  67  89  67 /   0   0  10   0
Iola            90  67  88  67 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    92  68  90  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ADK



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