Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201152
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
552 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Shortwave over the ern Rockies continues to make progress into
the plains at this time. Ascent ahead of this feature and warm
advection and low level moisture transport, has led to a large
area showers and thunderstorms moving across most of eastern KS
(mainly east of I- 135) early this morning. Latest hi-res model
solutions show this area of moisture transport and associated
showers/storms shifting slowly E-NE during the morning hours,
lingering the longest over SE KS. Most of the showers should shift
east of the forecast area by the afternoon hours.

As the showers shift east, expect a diminishing cloud trend for
central and south central KS as the main shortwave pushes across
and the area, with a surface trough pushing east. This will lead
to nice downslope flow on the west side of this system, with
another well above normal afternoon temp day after the clouds
clear out.

Zonal progressive flow will lead a couple of more well above
normal temp days for Tue/Wed, as W-SW flow leads to good downslope
conditions. This will lead to max temps almost 20-25 degrees
above normal with very dry conditions expected. (see fire weather
section below) Could even see some temps come close to record
numbers for portions of Central KS on Wed.

Another shortwave moving across the northern plains on Wed
evening will help drive a cold front into portions of Central Ks
for Wed night. This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu,
with temps south of the stalled frontal boundary remaining well
above normal.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Medium range models show the first in a series of shortwaves to
move out of the Rockies for late Thu night or on Fri. As this
shortwave approaches, warm advection and lift will lead to a
chance of showers across northern KS possibly along or north of
Interstate 70. Colder air further to the north of the stationary
front may lead to a chance of wintry precip across Neb and Iowa.
By Fri morning, some of the precip across Central KS could change
to a mix of rain/snow for areas along the KS/Neb border.

As this initial shortwave pushes east on Fri, colder air on the
backside of this system, will plunge south across most of the
forecast area for Fri/Sat, with more seasonal type temps values in
the middle 40s for highs and middle 20s for lows.

Some uncertainty on how the end of the weekend will play out, as
both the ECMWF and GFS both show a shortwave moving along the
stalled frontal boundary in srn KS, for late Sat or on Sun. Both
solutions show some sort of precip chance for late Sat night or
early Sun, potentially in the form of a wintry mix. Some question
on how much moisture will be available for this next system, but
looks like winter may make a return visit for the end of the
weekend, especially for Central KS.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

IFR ceilings and areas of showers will gradually exit eastern
Kansas to the east this morning, as drier air approaches from the
west. Stout/gusty northwest winds will affect Russell and Great
Bend by late morning in wake of a cold front. Can`t rule out a few
showers and even a thunderstorm generally along/east of the
Turnpike corridor this afternoon/evening along the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Clear skies and drier will move across portions of Central KS by
this afternoon. Lack of appreciable precip in this area will lead
to a very high fire danger across Central KS this afternoon.

Good downslope flow from the West and Northwest will lead to very
dry conditions and well above normal temps for Tue/Wed.  Relative
humidity levels may fall into the upper teens both days across
Central KS, which will lead to an elevated fire danger, with very
high to possibly extreme grassland fire danger values expected.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  40  73  44 /  20   0   0   0
Hutchinson      72  39  73  43 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          70  41  72  45 /  20   0   0   0
ElDorado        71  41  73  45 /  50   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  41  73  45 /  50   0   0   0
Russell         70  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      70  36  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          73  38  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       72  39  73  43 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     71  44  74  43 /  70  10   0   0
Chanute         71  44  73  44 /  50  10   0   0
Iola            71  43  73  44 /  60  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  44  73  44 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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