Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 181120
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
520 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Today:
Still anticipate fairly rapid end to precipitation and clearing
skies this afternoon in wake of departing shortwave and influx of
drier air and subsidence. Winds should diminish late in the
afternoon, with advisory still looking on track given good cold
air advection/momentum transfer. Tonight downslope flow will make
lows tricky given radiational cooling vs mixing. Going forecast
looked good.

Sunday:
Ridge axis will moving across the forecast area during the day with
winds increasing/backing. Temperatures should rebound given
downslope component. Surface pressure gradient should keep winds up
overnight, keeping lows above normal.

Monday:
Good downslope flow anticipated with very dry air aloft and brisk
southwest flow. Adjusted highs up, but suspect the western third
of forecast area are still too cool.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Medium range models remain in decent agreement with building
western ridge and deepening eastern trough. 00 UTC GFS is a bit
faster than 00 UTC ECMWF with this evolution. Both suggest next
cold front will traverse the area Monday night with cold air
advection on Tuesday. Surface ridge axis moves across early on
Wednesday with weak return flow developing. Both models continue
to flatten upper ridge and expand it east through this period.
00Z ECMWF has come around closer to GFS with shortwave cutting
through western ridge late in the period and beyond. Given run to
run variability, confidence from Friday on is low. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Prevailing MVFR ceilings should mix out as we move through the
morning hours as large-scale forcing for subsidence overspreads
the area in the wake of a storm system moving out of the Central
Plains region. Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 knots will begin
to diminish by mid afternoon becoming light and westerly tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

GFDI values will be very high area wide today given strong/gusty
winds and dry air. Gusty winds ahead of the next front on Monday
will likely result in very high GFDI values over most of the area
once again. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  29  57  37 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      55  28  58  36 /  30   0   0   0
Newton          52  28  56  36 /  40   0   0   0
ElDorado        53  29  56  37 /  40   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   54  30  57  37 /  30   0   0   0
Russell         53  25  60  33 /  30   0   0   0
Great Bend      53  25  60  33 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          55  27  59  37 /  40   0   0   0
McPherson       54  26  58  35 /  40   0   0   0
Coffeyville     54  31  56  37 /  50   0   0   0
Chanute         53  30  55  36 /  50   0   0   0
Iola            53  30  54  36 /  50   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    53  30  55  37 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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