Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 272017
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
317 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A warm, humid, and wetter period is on tap for much of the
upcoming week. Flat mid level ridging over the central Gulf Coast
region will be suppressed to the southeast by Sunday night as an
upper low/trough moves across Ontario and the Great Lakes region
during the first half of the week. This feature will push a weak
cold front into the forecast area on Monday which will stall out
near the coast by Tuesday before becoming diffuse by the middle of
the week. As an inversion across the area weakens Sunday, a few
thunderstorms will be possible by Sunday afternoon, especially
across northern sections of the forecast area. However, the
aforementioned cold front in the area Monday and Tuesday, along
with a sea breeze and outflow boundaries, will serve as a focus
for a fair amount of convection both Monday and Tuesday. With
ample instability forecast, a few strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible Monday and SPC has indicated a marginal risk for
severe storms on that day. Even after the weak cold front
dissipates, daily sea breeze boundaries will act on lingering
moisture to produce scattered convection through the remainder of
the week. Another weak cold front may approach the area next
weekend as energy moves through an upper trough anchored over New
England and the Mid Atlantic region late in the week. In addition,
a short wave trough is forecast to move into the lower
Mississippi Valley next weekend. All of this may lead to enhanced
rain chances again next weekend. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening with winds generally
around 10 knots. After sunset, winds will begin to subside, and cigs
will begin to lower. Expect MVFR conditions at all terminals with
cigs at or below 2500 ft by about 06z. Cigs will continue to drop to
IFR levels at some terminals toward daybreak. Conditions will begin
to improve after sunrise Sunday and should be VFR again at most
sites by about 16z. 95

&&

.MARINE...
Expect general onshore flow of 10 to 15 kts and seas of 1 to 3 feet
to persist through the first half of Monday as high pressure remains
centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Late Monday
and into Tuesday a weak front will stall near the coast, resulting
in a weaker pressure gradient, and allowing winds and seas to relax.
This front will also result in an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity. The front should be completely dissipated by
Wednesday, with onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots and seas 1 to 3
feet once again prevailing. 95


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...Blue.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...Monitoring flooding along the Mississippi and
             Pearl Rivers.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  71  82 /  10  20  30  70
BTR  75  90  72  83 /  10  20  30  70
ASD  74  88  73  85 /  10  10  30  60
MSY  76  89  75  85 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  76  86  76  84 /  10  10  30  60
PQL  73  86  73  84 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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