Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 300842
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. NUMBERS CONTINUE
TO REFLECT SH/TS DEVELOPING BEFORE INDEX VALUES REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. PROBLEM WITH THIS IS TIMING. IF SH/TS DEVELOP LATER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN OBVIOUSLY THERE WILL BE MORE HEATING AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKE YESTERDAY. WE EXPECT SH/TS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AND SHOULD BE EARLY ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER
FOR MOST AREAS. AGAIN...REGARDLESS OF CRITERIA REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY STATUS...CAUTION NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH THE HEAT.
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPPED FROM SOUTH GEORGIA TO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS PROVIDING A NICE AREA OF SUPPORT AND A
FOCUS FOR SH/TS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST OVER THE
GULF. A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE SH/TS
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...
MORE OF THE SAME BUT SH/TS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DAY AFTER
DAY. TIMING WILL ALWAYS BE AN ISSUE WITH TS INITIALIZATION. IF
ACTIVITY STARTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE GULF AND THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS AWAY. BUT WE WILL SEE
SOME PULSING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT TAF SITES BRIEFLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY GPT...ASD...MCB...HDC...NEW...BTR
AND MSY 21Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  75  94  72 /  40  20  20  10
BTR  97  77  95  74 /  40  30  30  20
ASD  95  78  94  76 /  50  40  40  20
MSY  95  81  94  80 /  50  50  40  20
GPT  94  78  92  76 /  50  50  40  20
PQL  94  78  92  74 /  60  60  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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