Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 082210
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
410 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Forecast appears to be on track with previous expectations regarding lows
flirting with freezing in the northern portions of the forecast
area tonight. The main point of lower confidence is whether the
clouds clear out enough to allow for more radiational cooling,
but winds will also remain elevated for decent low level mixing.
Have gone with 29-32F in those areas that stand the better chance.
Clouds should dissipate by Friday and winds subside to allow for a
much better chance for more of the area to reach light to moderate
freeze levels. Due to lower the average confidence on lows
tonight, have opted not to place a freeze warning at this time,
but may need to consider one for some places friday night as this
will either be the first or second event of the season thusfar.

.LONG TERM...
After the Saturday morning chill, a warming trend is anticipated
to onset as the high shunts east and surface winds veer to more
easterly then southeasterly by saturday night. Winds should be
breezy enough with baroclinic return to preclude sea fog formation
at this time, but something that may need to be considered for
Sunday night as warm air advection takes place over the cooler
shelf waters. The next front now appears to move through Monday
afternoon as part of a clipper system across the Midwest States,
with some pre-frontal showers providing some additional rainfall
over the area. The models are now also far more progressive in
lifting out the system and elongating the front, implying a
stationary boundary draped along the coast for a few days, which
could result in focus for daily rains until later in the week. GFS
is showing another strong Canadian surge for next Wednesday night
that will likely get less pronounced in future model runs,
particularly since the upper flow is not that amplified. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions have improved to VFR for all of the terminals as drier
air begins to advect in from the north.  VFR conditions should
persist through the remainder of the forecast period.  The one issue
will be strong north-northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots with frequent
higher gusts over 25 knots impacting KNEW and KMSY through the
overnight hours.  These winds should begin to decrease after 15z
tomorrow. 32


&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings in effect for the western legs with several gale
gusts reported throughout the afternoon at the LOOP and the other
proximity platforms. These conditions will continue as long as
the cold air advection takes place through tonight and early
Friday before process abates. High end small craft advisory
conditions are elsewhere. Conditions generally improve during the
day Friday with winds veering steadily to easterly flow by
Saturday, then onshore flow Sunday ahead of next system which may
not actually move much into the north gulf before stalling. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Gale Warning western coastal waters.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  46  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  32  48  29  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  32  49  29  54 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  39  49  37  53 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  35  49  32  54 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  34  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Friday for GMZ536-538-552-
     555-557-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Friday for GMZ550-570.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Friday for GMZ538-552-555-
     557-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Friday for GMZ570.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ532-534.

&&

$$



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