Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 282107
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
407 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPARSE TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND INTO
SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IN
CONJUNCTION AN UPPER RIDGE IS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE GULF TO REMAIN OPEN FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA AS WELL
AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES THIS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEAK OUT SOME FRIDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR
SATURDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE IN SOME
AREAS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD
LIMIT DAILY WARMING...SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO COME BACK DOWN STARTING NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH FINALLY LIFTS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET EXPECT THIS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND KEEP THE
WINDS AND WAVES ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS A 1 TO 2 FOOT
SWELL TRAIN DEVELOPS IN THE GULF. RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD FROM
THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN PLACE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  74  87 /  10  40  40  70
BTR  74  91  76  88 /  10  50  50  70
ASD  74  91  77  89 /  10  50  40  70
MSY  78  90  78  89 /  10  50  40  70
GPT  76  91  79  88 /  10  50  40  70
PQL  73  91  76  89 /  10  50  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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