Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 010307
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
807 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NYE
COUNTY. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED COINCIDENT WITH THE RELAXING OF THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH NORMAL EVENING ATMOSPHERIC
DECOUPLING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 254 PM /

SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS
DEPICTING A SLOW START TO THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WERE A FEW AREAS OF ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA
COUNTY...AND SOME POP-UPS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAP13/HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING AN UPTICK IN THE
ACTION DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX
GRIDS. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY ARE NOT
MATERIALIZING AS EXPECTED...BUT LATEST MAV GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
INCREASING SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ON TO THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...CENTERED OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NYE COUNTY DURING THE
DAY. KEPT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LIMITED IT TO ISOLATED COVERAGE IN
THE VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...BUT SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING THOUGH. GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...WITH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA SITTING UNDERNEATH A LULL IN THE WIND FIELD. THERE
IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND WENT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ON TUESDAY THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM
TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD ALIGNMENT
THIS FORECAST CYCLE PRESENTING A SLOW MOVING TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW BY
LATE THURSDAY.

AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY BUT SHIFT
MORE INTO EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THE BEST
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND INTRODUCES POPS FASTER INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW POPS THERE
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THE POPS SPREAD EAST AND INCREASE
BY THURSDAY. INCREASED INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY WILL MEAN MORE
COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY AND LINGERS
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE
COULD ALSO BE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

AVIATION...PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA/UTAH WILL KEEP ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF LINE FROM
MOUNTAIN CITY TO TONOPAH...THROUGH ABOUT 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.
WHILE MAINLY VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY...A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH OBSCURED MOUNTAIN TOPS.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 03Z FOR NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY WITH KTPH OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KTS.

THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND BUT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND MAYBE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND RAINFALL INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED...THERE MAY BE SOME RISE DUE TO THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MELT OFF OF MID-LEVEL SNOWPACK. SOME
SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL.
LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE
BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND
MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN
SMALL STREAMS MAY LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT RISE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO DUE TO THE
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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