Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 290928
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ENABLING MOISTURE TO GET PULLED UP INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA...WHICH WILL FUEL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES OF THE LKN CWA THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ELKO WILL
REACH THE 90S THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND TYPICAL JULY
CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. SOME MODEL
CHANGES HAVE NECESSITATED A FEW CHANGE IN THE VERY LONG RANGE
FORECAST...MOSTLY TO REDUCE POPS A BIT AND TO REDUCE COVERAGE IN THE
EVENING HOURS PAST MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK MOIST FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
STORMS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE FLOW FROM
YESTERDAY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE. WHEREAS EARLIER A DEFINITE
MONSOON PUSH INVADED MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTH...IT NOW APPEARS
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WANTS TO STAY A BIT EAST AND WEAKER...KEEPING
MOST OF QUASI-MONSOON FLOW IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ELKO FORECAST
AREA.

TEMPS CONTINUE A WARMING TREND...THOUGH THAT`S NOT REALLY NEWS WITH
RECENT LOWS BELOW FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS AND IN THE 30S IN OTHER
PLACES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...
KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STARTING TO SEE HAINES OF 6S IN THE FW GRIDS THIS
PACKAGE AS THE WARMING TREND UNFOLDS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MILD
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH THE CHANCE OF TSRA ON FRIDAY. NOT
EXPECTING WETTING RAINS AT THIS TIME FRIDAY...AND THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/98/98/97



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