Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 242131
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
231 PM PDT Wed Aug 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry across northern Nevada the next couple
days...with some isolated to scattered afternoon and early
thunderstorms across east-central Nevada through Saturday. Dry
across the entire region Sunday on into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday. Slightly below normal
temperatures through Friday as trough energy sliding down from
Canada brings dry continental air south through eastern Oregon
and Idaho and into the Great Basin. Mostly sunny and dry across
northern Nevada Thursday and Friday. Weak instability combined
with light to moderate mid-level moisture will lead to isolated to
scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm activity over
portions of east-central Nevada...generally northeastern Nye and
southern White Pine counties.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday

Overall forecast confidence is good until Monday; thereafter,
differences creep in...but surface impacts are similar. 5-wave
pattern resemble a positive long wave trof until Sunday, when
another long wave trof forms offshore of the Pacific NW. The CWA
looks to remains on the tail end of this neutral orientated long
wave trof, which typically leads to dry and breezy/windy
conditions. The main differences between the long range models and
their ensemble means is the eventually placement and strength of
the Pacific High, centered east of central or southern CA,
depending on the model. This plays a role in the speed and path of
a rather strong 500mb trof and associated sfc boundary or
boundaries diving southeast from the Gulf of AK that effect the
area late Monday through next Wednesday. In addition, a cut off
500mb low(or several weak lows) that meanders in the North Pacific
Ocean is another feature that the models are disagreeing on. This
is not unusual as the models struggle in resolving the actually
placement of it. All agree it is picked up by the 500mb trof
sometime on Tuesday, but it`s path thereafter is in question as it
pushes east towards a CA landfall on Tuesday or Wednesday. The
latest EC and it`s ensemble mean did inch towards the GFS, thus
more confident that the main trof axis will not pass through the
area until at least Wednesday.

Sensible weather:

Precip
A thunderstorm or two possible Saturday evening in White Pine
County due to remaining moisture, but chances are pretty slim.
Otherwise, no convection is expect for the rest of the long term
due to the dry southwesterly flow aloft.

Winds
No issues expected until Tuesday when the approaching 500mb trof
and frontal boundary should increase the winds out of the
southwest. They could becomes quite strong and gusty out of the
southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons depending on which
model verifies. This could a pose a fire weather hazard as
dewpoints will be quite low, especially during the afternoon hours
due to compressional drying over the Sierra Mtns.

Temps
Near average highs and lows to begin with Saturday night and
Sunday. Temps warm to above average through Tuesday in response
to rising heights under southwesterly flow aloft. Regardless of
which model is used, Monday looks to be the warmest with most
areas hitting 90 or better. As heights fall late Tuesday and
further on Wednesday, near average high temps can be expected by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Afternoon winds are expected at all sites under
generally mostly clear skies. Winds are likely to remain gusty
out of the northeast overnight at KWMC as another weak cold front
passes through. With a cooler airmass overhead, density altitudes
will also drop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cool and dry the next couple days across northern
Nevada. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across far eastern 457 and the southern
portion of 455 Thursday afternoon. On Friday afternoon
thunderstorm activity will be focused over southeastern 455.
Expect a mix of wet and dry storms with driest storms further
north and wetter storms across southern-most portions of the
zones.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

96/85/85/96



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