Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 222131
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
231 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UNSETTLED WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE
PRODUCING DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 500MB LOW IS CURRENTLY
NEAR VEGAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LI`S OF -1
TO -2 BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION BUT A FEW STRONG CELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL. HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN WITH MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AS SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING LOTS OF RAINFALL AS PW`S
ARE AROUND .60" WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. TONIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA BUT EASTERN
AREAS SHOULD SEE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION FORM TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR BETTER EXPECTED. A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE TOMORROW ESPECIALLY WHERE SOME SUN CAN GET THROUGH AND
HEAT IT UP...LI`S WILL BE NEAR -3 AND CAPE 500 TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG BUT ONCE AGAIN SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH MOST STORMS MOVING
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. SO STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH MAIN THREAT SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PW`S PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR .70" WHICH IS NEAR RECORD
TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH PW`S NEAR .60" AND LI`S OF -3 AND CAPE JUST
UNDER 1000 J/KG...SO STRONG STORMS AGAIN EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT MORE ISOLATED SUNDAY ACROSS HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AS THIS AREA BEGINS TO SEE DRIER AIR TAKING OVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS...BUT MODELS BETTER THAN 24HRS AGO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL
BE SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
CWA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON A TROF MOVES OVER THE CWA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TROF DIGS INTO NEVADA TUESDAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THEN CONTINUES
BUILD IN THE AFTERNOON PUSHING THE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CWA
ALLOWING A DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXCEPT ALONG
THE ID-NV BORDER...THE DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE WITH RIDGE BEING STRONG ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RETURNING BACK INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DRIER CONDITIONS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LESS SHOWERS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/87/87


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