Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 241001
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
301 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA BEGINS
TO FILTER BACK INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS PUSHING
THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA LAST
NIGHT...BUT STALLED OUT AROUND ELY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...WITH WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5 DEGREES COOLER TODAY...UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPS
WARMING BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV AS FOUR CORNERS HIGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN RAPIDLY PUSHES NORTHWARD TO THE
IDAHO BORDER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER RAPIDLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS EASTERN NV WITH THIS MONSOON SURGE.
MONSOON MOISTURE SPREADS WESTWARD ON MONDAY COVERING MOST OF
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND BY TUESDAY WILL COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT AROUND ELY AND
HAS BECOME A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FIRE AREA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FWZ 455 AND 457. DRY AND BREEZY FOR NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHER SOUTH THE
RFW IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES. WITH THE ONGOING HIGH ELEVATION FIRES IN THESE ZONES...FELT
IT WAS NECESSARY TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. TONIGHT`S INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
INDICATED THAT BOTH FIRES CONTINUE TO BURN ACTIVELY WITH THE BEAR
TRAP FIRE BURNING FIRE HOT ALL NIGHT. THE FIRE RAWS NEAR MT MORIAH
AND MATHER IN GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK HAVE BEEN HITTING RFW
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FIRES...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.
FORTUNATELY AFTER TODAY MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH R.H. VALUES ON THE RISE AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY SATURDAY ACROSS THESE ONGOING
INCIDENTS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

95/91/91/95





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