Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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178
FXUS65 KLKN 191021
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
221 AM PST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Some showers will persist today before a very moist
system brings more valley rain and mtn snow to area by tomorrow,
lasting through Wednesday. The pattern turns colder but still
active for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...This morning through Tuesday

What`s left of the frontal boundary is nearly out of the state.
The trailing 500mb trof is providing enough lift to generate some
areas of light rain or snow through the morning hours in eastern
NV. Some minor accumulations are possible, but travel impacts are
not expected. Will let the winter wx adv over White Pine expire
at 12Z as the bulk of the precip will end shortly. Another
weakening frontal system is quickly behind the 500mb trof.
Additional showers are possible near the NV/ID border and the Ruby
Mtns this afternoon as what`s left of it lifts northeast through
northern NV. High temps today will run near to just slightly above
average as the airmass advecting in is just slightly colder than
the one exiting.

By Sunday night, the next system is already knocking on the door.
A warm front lifts north across the area early Monday morning,
spreading valley rains and mountain snow starting from west to
east. Disagreements remain on exactly the orientation of the warm
front, which leads to different strengths on the isentropic lift,
and eventually different placement of the highest QPF amounts. As
a result, the GFS remains the highest with QPF amounts over
Humboldt county, where the boundary will stall, providing a
lengthly period of very moist westerly to southwesterly flow. In
fact, NAFES IVT anomaly numbers are over 5 SD for the Humboldt
county area Monday. Since the EC, NAM, and UKMET are similar in
QPF amounts (along with WPC), favored their solutions but added
some GFS to account for the higher possibility. This could cause
 flooding issues for Humboldt county, especially if GFS precip
totals verify. Regardless, many higher elevations in eastern Elko
and Humboldt counties could approach .75 inches of precip by
Monday evening. As expected, snow levels will rise above 7000 ft
or higher Monday, so rain is expected in all valleys, although
some locations in eastern Nevada may see snow initially as cold
air remains in place due to overnight radiation cooling. Locations
along the ID/NV line may see snow levels closer to 6500 ft
depending on where the warm front stalls out. High temps are
expected to climb into the 50s across most of the area behind this
warm front with very strong southerly winds. In fact, parts of
central NV may need an advisory due to the timing of the 140kt
polar jet entering western NV (afternoon hours).

By Monday night, most areas south of I-80 corridor will remain
dry under the southwesterly flow aloft. To the north, questions
remain on where the boundary stalls outs and how fast it sinks to
the southeast in response to the associated 500mb trof lifting
northeast to the Pacific Northwest. This also could spell some
winter wx issues for northern Elko and Humboldt counties. It
appears that the now cold front will be orientated northwest to
southeast from the northeast corner of the state to the tip of
northwestern Nye county by Tuesday afternoon. With this in mind,
precip should remain rain for the northern valleys on Tuesday.
Overall QPF amounts will not be that impressive Tuesday, with
many areas not seeing any under the southwesterly flow aloft.
Strong south to southwest winds will continue, with advisory
levels possible in central NV, as well as Humboldt county. Also,
cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two on Tuesday given the timing
of the frontal passage. Overnight temps will remain quite warm
Monday night and for the most part Tuesday.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday. The models are in
agreement through most of next week, and are better this model
run than last. There will be another moist Pacific trough bringing
rain and snow to the LKN CWFA early in the period, and possibly
another surge of moisture late next week.

Tuesday night through Thursday. The models are pretty similar
with this system and the timing of the positive-tilt Pacific
trough axis as it moves through California and plunges into
northern Nevada. It looks like most areas will see several inches
of snow. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s to the
mid 30s. Low temperatures will range from the teens to the mid
20s.

Thursday night through Saturday. Models are having a problem
digesting the energy with the next upper low diving into the
broadening trough. Definitely looking like a cooler pattern due to
the orientation of the trough but as far as precipitation, will
have to leave chances in but nothing of significance is likely
since the low center will probably drop down the California
coastline. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s to the
mid 30s. Low temperatures will generally fall into the single
digits and teens.


&&

.AVIATION...A very moist low pressure system will bring rain and
snow to the Great Basin through the middle of the week. Frequent
MVFR CIGS with intermittent IFR cigs will affect KWMC KEKO KELY
and KTPH through Monday morning. Wind gusts to 30 kt will impact
KELY and KTPH today. Wind gusts will be stronger on Monday with
more widespread coverage.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...The surge or cresting of water on the Lower Humboldt
River is west of Battle Mountain and approaching Comus and
Winnemucca.

At Battle Mountain, minor flooding is occurring but the river is
receding rapidly. Moderate flooding is expected through Monday
along the stretch of river from Battle Mountain to Comus.

At Comus, about 30 miles upstream of Winnemucca, the Humboldt
River is currently at Moderate Flood stage. Moderate flooding is
expected to last through at least Monday.

At Winnemucca, minor flooding along the Humboldt River channel is
expected to begin on Monday.

Martin Creek north of Winnemucca has been rising diurnally and
could get back into flood stage early this week. It will approach
minor flood stage today. Likelihood of flooding increases on
Monday when temperatures in the Paradise Valley area get up into
the 50s and 0.10-0.20 inches of rain is forecast to fall over the
area.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for White Pine
County.

&&

$$

85/92/92



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