Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 202222
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
222 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
STARTING TO PICK BACK UP AT THIS TIME...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE CAN
BE SEEN STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. LOOKING AT MESOWEST...MANY SITES ARE COMING IN WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY WITHIN THE 0.25 TO 0.66 INCH
RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL KEEP PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH
OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN. THIS WILL KEEP THE SNOW TO
THE HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
OTHERWISE...LOCALES IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL SEE RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF ELKO
COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT VERY WET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH...ABOUT 7500 FEET OR MORE. JET ENERGY AT
250 MB WILL HELP TO CREATE THE LIFT NECCESARY FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
AND INCLUDING I-80. 700 MB WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH
MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KNOTS. SOME OF THE SUMMITS WILL SEE THESE
STRONG WINDS...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL JUST SEE BREEZY TO NEAR
WINDY CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR THAN EC MODEL...BUT
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-12Z ON THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM US
HIGHWAY 50 AND AREAS NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS
AND TIMING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH
THIS EVENT. IT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. FRIDAY WILL BE
DRIER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTY DUE TO INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN AT KEKO AND KWMC. KELY MAY GET SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN...BEST CHANCE WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE KTPH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. SOME
SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT KEKO
AND KELY...HOWEVER EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS RISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

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