Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 271035
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
MARINE LAYER IS 500 FT DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS NEAR 1600 FEET
WITH A MAX TEMPS OF 75 DEGREES. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
TRENDS AND LACK OF AN EDDY HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO STAY CLEAR SO LOOK
FOR A SUNNY START EVERYWHERE TODAY. THAT WEAK ONSHORE PUSH MEANS
DELAYED SEABREEZES SO LOOK FOR A MOSTY TOASTY DAY WITH ALL VLY TEMPS
IN THE 90S AND PLENTY OF 80S AND A SMATTERING OF LOW 90S ACROSS THE
COASTS.

NAM SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS FOR THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST AND IF
THEY ARE GOING TO SHOW UP ANYWHERE IT WILL BE THERE BUT EVERYWHERE
ELSE SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE. ON MORE DAY OF WARMING AS HGTS PUSH UP TO
594 DM. LOOK FOR A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THIS
MEANS THE WARMEST VLYS WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.

LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE EDDY SPINS UP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL ALSO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL. TOTAL
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING. HGTS FALL AS THE RIDGE IS SHOVED SOUTHWARD
BY A PAC NW LOW AND THIS SHOULD COOL MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE LA
COAST MAY SEE A BIGGER DROP DUE TO THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
PRETTY DULL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A VERY LARGE BROAD TROF SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
AND PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. HGTS LOWER (BUT NOT
MUCH) THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND AND A SLOW INCREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN BUT EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA YNEZ THE VLYS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/0600Z

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS ACROSS THE COASTAL TAFS FROM 11Z-16Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS FROM 11Z-16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. OTHERWISE...LOCAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY
OF POINT CONCEPTION AND THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
COULD BE ISSUED FOR WATERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...26/900 PM

THE HIGHEST REPORTS OF SURF FROM SOUTH FACING BEACHES THIS EVENING
RANGED FROM 10 TO 15 FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MAINLY EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
THROUGH FRIDAY. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
AS WELL AND WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. AN EXTRATROPICAL
STORM IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL GENERATE SWELLS THAT SHOULD
ARRIVE A WEEK FROM THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST LAXCFWLOX FOR
CURRENT EVENT DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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