Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 280113 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
513 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THEN A LOW WILL
BRING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY...WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TODAY PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL HELP CLEAR
THE SKIES A BIT AND WARM TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER IT NEVER REALLY GETS
A STRONG TOE-HOLD AND RELATIVELY GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT
REMAINS IN THE REGION WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE
PICTURE AND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAK TROUGH IS POSITIONED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST EVENT.  KEY WILL BE HOW THE TROUGH TRANSLATES
AROUND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IT MAY
DROP A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT IN OUR SERVICE AREA OR
ANOTHER SOLUTION MAY KEEP THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH AND TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ENOUGH TO PULL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND
AND INTO THE SERVICE AREA.  THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WOULD BE THE LIKELY
RECIPIENT OF THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION IN MOST SCENARIOS AND A
STRONGER EVENT COULD ALSO BRING GOOD PRECIPITATION TO THE LOS
ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SFV AND SGV.  THIS WOULD BE ANOTHER
WARM EVENT SO NOT LIKELY TO RESULT IN MUCH IF ANY SNOWFALL.

THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...

WEAK RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WINDS
REMAIN OFFSHORE AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER.  AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND EVEN THE COASTAL AREAS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE SPRING THAN MID
WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0113Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 16Z AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AND KPRB. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z FOR DESERT TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY
20Z AT THE LATEST.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 04Z AND 16Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN MVFR VISIBILITIES.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. NO IMMEDIATE
CONCERNS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO/KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




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