Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
FXUS66 KLOX 081724
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
924 AM PST Thu Dec 8 2016
Afternoon temperatures will warm slightly across the region
through Sunday. There is a chance of precipitation today through
Saturday, mostly north of Point Conception. Temperatures will be
near normal next week.
Not much change in previous forecast thinking through Saturday.
Cloud forecast for today was updated based on current satellite
imagery, with more sun than clouds expected for most areas south
of Pt Conception. There were some light precip amounts in the
Ventura County foothills last night. We`ll have to take a closer
look at that happening again over the next several days, but it
should remain dry south of Pt Conception today. We`ll also have to
take a look at possibly adding some slight chance PoPs for
Saturday night into Sunday morning, as the front stalled out on
the Central Coast finally pushes southward. This may include the
coastal/valley areas of Ventura and LA County.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
Currently there are some light showers over SLO and SBA counties.
VTA county is dry and mostly cloudy and LA county is pretty clear.
Broad scale moist NW flow continues over the state. SLO/SBA county
will be mostly cloudy for the next three days. The real rain
action is going to be Monterrey county and north but SLO county
will see quite a bit of light rain and SBA county a little less.
As with all of these weak systems the exact timing of impulses is
close to impossible. All the mdls reflect this with virtually no
agreement in timing and intensity. Residents of SLO and western
SBA county are just going to have to keep their umbrellas handy.
Rainfall totals through Saturday will likely range from 1.00-2.00"
over extreme northwest san luis obispo county to 0.10-0.25" in
the lompoc and santa maria area. Locally higher amounts are
possible on the coastal slopes in northern san luis obispo county.
Lighter amounts of less than 0.10" are possible as far south of
the ventura county mountains.
South of Point Conception skies will be predominately mostly
cloudy with mid and high clouds but there will be some partly
The cloudy skies will keep max temps fairly uniform with little
day to day change across area. Highs across the coasts and vlys
will all pretty much be in the mid 60s,
The strong westerly flow continues (good luck flying from the
east coast to KLAX) Sunday and Monday. The only difference is that
there is much less moisture. So the chance of rain will fade
away. The clouds will switch and will no be partly cloudy and just
occasionally mostly cloudy. Hgts rise a little and this along with
extra sunshine will allow for a degree or two of warming.
Ridging moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Skies will continue to
clear and max temps will rise above normals.
Both the EC and GFS show rain on next Thursday over most of the
area. But rarely do day 8 rain forecasts work out so while its
worth mentioning here it is nothing to get excited about.
At 1000Z, there was neither a marine layer or inversion.
Overall, low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. For TAFs
north of Point Conception (KSMX, KSBP and KPRB), approaching
rainfall will likely bring various changes in flight categories
(between VFR and IFR), but low confidence in timing and changes in
flight category. For TAFs south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in development of MVFR ceilings, but low confidence in
KLAX...low confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of MVFR
ceilings 12Z-20Z. For tonight moderate confidence in development
of MVFR ceilings, but low confidence in timing (could be +/-
4 hours of current 03Z forecast).
KBUR...moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. High confidence in VFR
conditions through this evening. For tonight, moderate confidence
in return of MVFR ceilings, but low confidence in timing (could be
+/- 3 hours of current 08Z forecast).
High confidence in winds staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels everywhere through Friday morning, except for marginal SCA
South winds beyond 10 miles off the Central Coast through this
afternoon. Widespread gusty and possibly SCA west winds are
expected Friday night which could last through the weekend. These
winds will be focused south and east of Point Conception including
the Santa Barbara Channel and the Santa Monica Basin. Moderate
confidence in short period and choppy sea conditions Friday
through the weekend.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(SAT-WED)
Gusty northwest winds could affect Santa Barbara County and
northern Los Angeles County on Saturday or Sunday.