Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KLWX 221915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT
AND PERSIST OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TAP FOR THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...1027MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN MO WILL DRIFT TOWARD
THE UPR MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WITH A CENTER NEAR PITTSBURGH
TONIGHT THE WRN PARTS OF THE CWA SHOULD COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WITH
CLEARING SKIES. MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW SOME
FROST IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (FROSTBURG, BUT
NOT CUMBERLAND). MIN TEMPS MID 30S OUT THERE...LOW TO MID 40S
PIEDMONT AND WEST...UPR 40S COASTAL LOWLANDS...MID 50S URBAN AND
NEARSHORE. MID 50S WOULD BE COOLEST NIGHT AT DCA OR DMH (MD
SCIENCE CENTER) SINCE MAY 19.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNNY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 70F. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SERN STATES
PROBABLY ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENING THE
LOWER LAYERS AND RAIN STARTING AT LEAST IN THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER WEST WITH PRECIP THAT
THE GFS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF 500MB CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL OPEN UP
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TO EXTEND INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS MODERATE
PVA... MOIST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COUPLED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NWLY GUSTS TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT NLY FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM FOR NWLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. NLY FLOW
10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SCA
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ501>503-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.