492
FXUS61 KLWX 241438
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1038 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today. High pressure
builds in again Thursday into Friday. A warm front moves through
over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-morning update: As of 10 AM, water vapor imagery shows a
well-defined shortwave tracking across south-central PA. The
core of the coldest temperatures within the 700-500 hPa layer
are located beneath and just behind this disturbance. As the
boundary layer heats and these cooler temperatures advect in
aloft, limited instability is developing, causing showers to
form across PA. These showers will track toward the southeast
along with the primary shortwave, reaching northeastern MD
during the late morning to early afternoon hours. Most of this
activity should be in the form of showers, but a stray
thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out, with around 250-500 J/kg
of surface based CAPE present. Much of the rest of the forecast
area should remain dry through the remainder of the day.
Previous discussion follows...

Along the I-95 corridor and eastern zones, isolated to
scattered rain showers could develop as the cold front draws
near around midday today and pushes through this afternoon.
There is a chance for a rumble of thunder or two this afternoon
with frontal passage and mainly along the I-95 corridor and
northern Chesapeake Bay. SPC has parts of central Maryland and
much of Northeast Maryland in a General Risk for thunderstorms.
Highs today will be middle 60s to lower 70s from west to east.

Rain showers and any thunder should exit this evening. Patchy
frost could develop tonight depending on how much clearing
occurs behind the cold front. Lows tonight should be noticeably
cooler than last night with temperatures dropping into the upper
30s to middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions return Thursday through Friday evening with high
pressure building into the region. Thursday will be cooler with
highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Friday`s highs remaining
cool and nearly the same with temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Temperatures each night will be chilly with Thursday
night being cooler than Friday night. Friday night`s lows could
be higher than in the current forecast depending on how fast a
warm front develops to our southwest and advances northeastward
Friday night into early Saturday. With the warm front in mind,
there is a chance for some light rain in spots along and ahead
of the warm front Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure off the coast of Southern New England slides
south across the Western Atlantic waters toward the Carolina
coastline this weekend. A weak disturbance aloft crosses the area
Saturday morning, bringing some light showers to areas west of the
Blue Ridge. This shower activity ends Saturday afternoon as deep
ridging builds into the Mid-Atlantic from the south. Temps begin a
warming trend, though still in the 60s for the most part. Saturday
night lows trend milder, only dropping to the 50s.

The main weather story Sunday through Tuesday will be the well above
normal temperatures reaching the 80s each day, with 70s in the
mountains. Nighttime lows also trend milder, in upper 50s to 60s.
The hottest temperatures are most likely Monday, where a few
locations in central to northern VA could reach around 90F. The deep
ridging breaks down Tuesday when a cold front crosses the area,
producing some afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Given the well above
normal temps and modest dynamics, would not be surprised if a few
strong storms developed Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some
isolated to scattered showers could bring brief reductions,
mainly this afternoon.

Northwest winds increase today with gusts around 20-25 knots.
Northeast winds and dry conditions arrive Thursday.

VFR conditions are expected Friday at all terminals with high
pressure overhead.

VFR conditions likely this weekend. A few showers possible Saturday
morning, otherwise dry conditions expected. Southerly winds prevail
around 10 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through
Wednesday morning. After that, winds may experience a bit of a
lull in the afternoon in the lower and central Bay. Winds pick
up again as they turn northerly and channel down the Chesapeake
Bay. A few showers or storms may also be capable of producing
gusty winds late this morning or early this afternoon, potentially
leading to the issuance of SMWs.

SCA criteria winds could redevelop this afternoon. Winds over
the waters diminish and turn out of the northeast on Thursday.

Southeast winds on Friday shift to southerly on Saturday with dry
conditions expected over the waters both days. Winds will be right
below SCA criteria on Friday before diminishing overnight into
Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure off southern New England slides south toward
the Carolinas this weekend. Southeast winds Saturday veer south on
Sunday. A few hours of SCA conditions is possible Saturday afternoon
as winds gust around 15-18kt. The better chance for SCA conditions
is Sunday afternoon/evening where southerly channeling could
result in gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds turn out of the northwest behind a cold front and will be
stronger, sustained around 15-20 mph and gusts 20-25 mph and
possibly higher along the ridges. RHs could drop into the upper
20s and low 30s this afternoon. Will continue to monitor
conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The steady southerly flow over the past 24 hours has resulted in
rapidly rising anomalies, especially in the northern Chesapeake Bay.
Minor coastal flooding is expected at Baltimore, and Havre de
Grace. Annapolis is expected to go to Moderate coastal flooding,
hence a warning has been issued for this location. All other
locations will reach Action Stage during the upcoming high tide
cycle this morning.

A cold front crosses the area this afternoon, with northwest winds
behind the front helping to lower tide anomalies tonight into
Thursday. A few of the sensitive locations could get close to minor
flooding again tonight. Looking ahead, winds turn easterly Friday as
tide levels likely rise once again over the weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530-531-
     538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ532-
     533-536-540-541.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ534-
     537-542-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...KLW/KJP
SHORT TERM...KLW/CJL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR
FIRE WEATHER...CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR