Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 250213
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...RESENT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
913 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have decreased significantly across the area this evening,
with latest observations also indicating RH values now above 15
percent for most locations. Thus, have allowed the Red Flag
Warning to expire as scheduled. Updated products will be out
shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 727 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and the Wind
Advisory

DISCUSSION...
Winds across the areas this evening have decreased to below
critical thresholds. Because of this, we have allowed the High
Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Wind
gusts will diminish by around 06Z, with sustained speeds expected
to be around 12kt or less areawide thereafter. Winds will veer to
the northwest tonight, and then return to the south Saturday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area
yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today.  Still had
some wind on the backside of it as a deep surface low moved across
the Panhandle and into OK.  Will have brief upper ridging over the
area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.  The
next upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Saturday and head
this way reaching NM by early Sunday.  Another brief ridge expected
after that one.  The next upper trough moves ashore CA on Monday and
develops into a cut off low reaching the 4 corners region by early
Tuesday and moving over West TX by Wednesday.

Still very windy today on backside of upper low... have a Wind
Advisory for most of the region with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains... plan on letting those continue till they
expire at 00z.  May become a little windy again on Sunday as another
surface low moves across the Panhandle.

After a record setting warm start to the week have cooler temps
today behind the Pacific front.  A cold front moves through tonight
with lows dropping into the 40s with a few 30s at Marfa and Tatum.
South wind returns Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows
Saturday night in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday mainly in the
80s.  Another front moves through sunday night with a 3rd front
expected late Wednesday.

Not much rain chances the next few days but will have a chance of
storms returning to the area mainly east Tuesday and Wednesday with
approach of cut off low.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will continue through sunset before winds
diminish and and conditions improve. A cold front will cause winds
to veer from the west to the northwest and north, before decreasing
and settling on a northwesterly direction overnight. Winds will be
light Saturday as high pressure builds into west Texas but another
upper low moving into the Great Plains will increase west winds
again Sunday and could create critical fire weather conditions. At
this time the wind speeds are marginal for Red Flag criteria so will
hold off on issuing a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  75  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  77  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/03



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