Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 122307
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. An upper level
disturbance moving across Mexico has generated thunderstorms
near KPEQ and KCNM. Will not include in the TAFS at the moment
but will monitor. Precipitation should diminish early this evening
with loss of heating. The disturbance should be far enough away
from the terminals on Sunday to have no impact. Winds will
generally be southeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms were developing in the wake of a westbound
inverted ua trough over the region this afternoon.  Heating of the
higher terrain within a moist easterly upslope flow regime is aiding
convective development.  Fortunately, instability is not that great,
not to mention shear, so expect only a few strong storms capable of
gusty winds and perhaps some small hail.  Since PWats are near 1.5
in., and storms will be slow moving, locally heavy rainfall will
also be a possibility.  Expect convection to dwindle after sundown,
as well as storm strength.  An ua ridge centered between the Great
Basin and Four Corners will expand eastward thereafter and result in
hotter temperatures areawide and little to no shower and
thunderstorm development Sunday, if not Monday.

Meanwhile, an anomalous ua trough over south central Canada today
will expand south and east over the northern U.S. Plains and Midwest
during the next couple of days.  An equally anomalous mP airmass
will drop south through the U.S. Plains with the associated cold
front, the quality of which is not seen this far south that often
this time of year, impinging upon southeast New Mexico and west
Texas next Tuesday or Wednesday.  Since Ensembles and deterministic
models have all latched onto this solution, have increased PoPs a
little over the northern half of the forecast area Tuesday, and kept
them going through Thursday.  Considering the quality of the airmass
displayed, the frontal boundary will not wash out easily, hence the
prolonged rain chances inserted into the forecast for mid next
week.  Some models generate a Mesoscale Convective Complex Wednesday
night in particular, which moves south over the area along and
behind the frontal boundary.  This may be highly speculative at this
time, however model suites have also latched onto a discrete
shortwave trough which translates southeastward across the central/
southern ConUS at that time which could allow the MCS to come about.
The cooler airmass would then be shunted south through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday as a result.  Have undercut MOS temp
offerings considering all of the above, especially Thursday and
Friday.  Thereafter, indications are the ua ridge will begin to
expand over the region again, so temperatures will warm to above
normal next weekend while rain chances will again be hard to come
by.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  93  69  96  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              69  96  71  96  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  95  70  96  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  96  73 100  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  93  70  97  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  89  69  91  /  20  20  10  20
HOBBS NM                   64  92  65  94  /  10   0  10  20
MARFA TX                   59  88  59  90  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  94  69  97  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  69  93  71  97  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    69  97  70  99  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67





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