Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 280500
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 918 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE ARKLAMISS...THROUGH WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. WINDS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR THE TN
RIVER TO THE MID 30S AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT AND CLARKSDALE MS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS TO THE
EAST... RESIDING OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TN BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL
RETURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A CATEGORY OR TWO OR TWO. WINDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL
BE SLOWEST TO TEMPS NEAR THE TN RIVER WILL LIKELY DIP TO NEAR 20
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVER EASTERN AR WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AND MAY CLIMB A BIT IN RESPONSE TO BETTER MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PWB

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 17-19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL
OCCUR AT KJBR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER 00Z.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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