Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 250006
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
706 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to increase pops and for the 00z Aviation Discussion
Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Mesoscale Convective System over northeast Arkansas this evening
will continue to slowly push south as weakening cold pool advances
towards the Interstate 40 corridor. Very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding continues to be a major concern across northeast Arkansas
where significant flooding along with water rescues continue.
Heavy rainfall should continue along and north of the stalling
outflow boundary...which should not make much further progress
south of the Interstate 40 corridor this evening. Flash flood
potential will continue along and north of I-40 through the
evening before convection wanes later tonight. A few strong to
severe storms with damaging winds and large hail may also continue
for a few more hours prior to weakening instability with loss of
daytime heating. Further south across east Arkansas and north
Mississippi...most locations should remain dry through the
overnight hours.

Updated products will be sent shortly.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

Seasonally warm and humid early summer-like conditions to prevail
over the Midsouth through the next seven days.

Southwest flow aloft will prevail through the upcoming weekend,
ahead of a general upper level longwave trof over the eastern
Rockies and high plains. A downstream moisture plume will extend
from east TX, through the Ozarks and mid-MS River valley.
Northeast AR and the MO bootheel will remain in closest proximity
to this deeper moisture and will continue to see higher rain
chances than the remainder of the Midsouth. A more pronounced
shortwave trof passage through the Ozarks will occur on Friday,
latest GFS and ECMWF runs suggest upper level ridging may limit
rain chances over the TN River valley.

Upper level ridging will prevail over the weekend, with continued
weak daytime convective inhibition and low end rain chances.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Set

A convective complex continues to move south this evening and will
impact KJBR and KMEM through late evening with reduced cigs and
vsbys. Strong northwest wind gusts will also be possible in
convection. Improving conditions are expected at these locations
later this evening. Elsewhere...VFR conditions will continue at
KMKL and KTUP through the night with light southerly winds.

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites on Wednesday. There
may be isolated convection near all sites except KTUP. Have
included vicinity thunder to account for this potential. Strong
and gusty southerly winds will also develop by mid morning
Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the forecast
period.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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