Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 222334
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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