Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 222341
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
541 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

CLOUDY SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO THE MIDSOUTH WITH ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE
OR SO OF WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY.

OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TONIGHT...HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES...FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING
THE MIDSOUTH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEW POINTS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE
50S...AND DRIER AIR SHIFTING IN FROM THE WEST...DO NOT THINK
THUNDER WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH COOLING TO RESULT
IN FOG. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WILL BRIEF THE ONCOMING EVENING SHIFT
AND LET THEM MAKE THE CALL WHEN OR IF IT IS WARRANTED. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
AHEAD OF OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. GUIDANCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE LI`S BARELY BELOW 0C TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN 100 JOULES OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE ALABAMA
STATE LINE.

WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS IT APPROACHES
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL STREAM
NORTH FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD EXCEED AN
INCH...BUT MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
PROBABLY WILL NOT WARM MORE THAN ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE AREN`T GOING TO SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. AS IS
TYPICAL...MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING THE MIDSOUTH AS THE
COOLER AIR MOVES IN CHRISTMAS MORNING. LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...COOL ENOUGH TO LIGHT
THE FIREPLACE WHILE UNWRAPPING GIFTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CHRISTMAS SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. HIGHS MAY APPROACH 60
DEGREES AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS LATE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT TRACKS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ENHANCED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NORTH MISSISSIPPI MAY CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SUNDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

A WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MAINTENANCE OF A STRATUS DECK TO
BELOW 1000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAYER ALSO
EXISTS WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED THUNDER THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AT MEM...MKL...AND TUP. TUP SHOULD SEE A LONGER
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL THUNDER...HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE THIS MENTION
THROUGH 03Z AT THIS TIME. IFR AND POTENTIAL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT TUP WHERE CIGS HAVE BEEN
HOVERING AROUND 300FT ALL DAY. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY HOW CIGS
EVOLVE THIS EVENING.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING AT
MEM...MKL...AND TUP AND THE WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN TIMED ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THERE MAY BE A SMALL BREAK IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER A SECONDARY SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VCSH OR -RA AT ALL
SITES TOMORROW EVENING. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS AS GOOD AS
POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TOMORROW.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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