Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 040457
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1157 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CAUSING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MOST PLACES
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
MEMPHIS IN WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S.

AN UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY THICK DECK OF STRATOCU COMBINED WITH COOL NW
SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. NORMAL HIGH AT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL...77F.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
BY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WSW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LATEST REGIONAL MODELS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS DEPICTED ON SOME REGIONAL HI-RES
MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE CONUS IS COVERED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
LOWER 50S IN MEMPHIS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 70F.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME CU NUDGING IN FROM
THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT RAIN FREE WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH LOWER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND
PERHAPS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 4 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN TO 14 TO 20 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SITE WILL BE AT KMKL
AND KTUP...WITH KMEM ONLY NEEDING A VCSH. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT BY
SUNDOWN...AND WINDS WILL RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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