Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 211529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 95-97 AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 101-105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. HEAT
CONCERNS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THIS
MORNING/S FORECAST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERALL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE MID SOUTH RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY MORNING MIXED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR
TODAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THIS MORNING THAN
YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY AND THINK HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW
105 DEGREES. /HEAT INDEX READINGS 105 OR GREATER FOR ADVISORIES/ AS A
RESULT...I/VE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT HEADLINES
FOR TODAY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL IF
CONDITIONS WOULD WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. A CONTINUATION OF VERY
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS INDICATES A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ECMWF KEEPS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE ECMWF MAY BE
ON THE CORRECT TREND AND HAVE ADJUSTED LONG TERM FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY OUTSIDE
OF A FEW CU. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY 01Z.

JMP3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








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