Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 251742
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
Updated to add 18z aviation discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
Adjusted pops based on radar and current observations. East
Arkansas may struggle to climb into the lower 80s due to cloud
cover and rainfall. Northeast Mississippi may approach 90 degrees
this afternoon. High resolution short term model guidance isn`t as
bullish with redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon...but
confidence is not high that we will be rain free after the ongoing
batch. In fact storms in West Arkansas suggest otherwise. New
Zones already sent.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures mainly in the 60s. There is
currently no rain over the forecast area but an area of
thunderstorms is moving across eastern Oklahoma and into western
Arkansas. These thunderstorms develop Tuesday night ahead of a
nearly stationary boundary which extends from eastern South Dakota
through extreme eastern Colorado and into eastern New Mexico.
These thunderstorms should continue to move east this morning and
eventually make their way into the forecast area. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side today with highs in the mid to upper
By tonight...more thunderstorms should develop just ahead of the
front and start to move east. Thunderstorm coverage over the
forecast area will be less than during the day but can`t rule out
isolated thunderstorms developing during the evening. Temperatures
will remain warm with lows Thursday morning in the mid 60s to
Thursday looks to be somewhat similar to today as what remains of
the thunderstorms that develop tonight make their way into the
forecast area. Temperatures will also be similar to today with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models show a better chance of
thunderstorms developing near the forecast area Thursday night and
Friday as the frontal boundary moves a little further east.
With the frontal boundary remaining well west of the forecast area
there is not much chance of widespread severe weather for today
through Friday. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the
question but the key word here is isolated.
During the holiday weekend, little change in the weather pattern
is expected as the frontal boundary will remain over the central
and southern plains. This will mean a chance of thunderstorms
during the day from Saturday through Tuesday. It does appear that
there will be mainly dry weather during the evening and overnight
hours although an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out.
Temperatures will remain warm during the holiday weekend with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
18Z TAF cycle
VFR conditions expected to prevail for most of the period except
for a short period at MEM early this afternoon, at TUP Thursday
morning, and in thunderstorms. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible at MEM, JBR, MKL this afternoon and
possibly again on Thursday. South winds between 8-11 kts with a
few gusts to 18 kts this afternoon will become light tonight and
increase to 7-9 kts on Thursday.