Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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122
FXUS64 KMEG 041733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... A TRANQUIL MORNING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AREAWIDE WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE WSW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. 08Z H5
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE FA WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NNE OVER MICHIGAN WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER NE
NORTH CAROLINA.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NNE OF THE REGION MIGRATES
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE FAR EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NEAREST THE TN RIVER WILL HOLD THE BEST
CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABNORMALLY COOL FOR EARLY MAY
ONLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
RESIDING JUST EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS ENTRENCHED
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY...INITIATING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS INVOF THE REGION WILL WARM NICELY TO THE LOW 80S
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
REGION ALLOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO PROGRESS TOWARD
THE REGION. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES SE AND
WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY AND INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY TO MID MAY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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