Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 021214
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
714 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
STORYLINE OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...

CURRENTLY...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS ANALYZED
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX COAST NORTHEAST THROUGH AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...3
DIFFERENT DISTINCT VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITH THE MOST PROMINENT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR HGX. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST US. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED THE PAST FEW
DAYS WAS NON-EXISTENT.

FOR TODAY...GIVEN ANALOGOUS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO
YESTERDAY...THE FORECAST IS ALSO SIMILAR. 850 MB AND 925 TEMPS
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY THEREFORE HIGHS NEAR 90
NORTHEAST AND LOW TO MID 90S SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. EXPANDED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH NORTHEAST MS TODAY...BUT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED AT BEST.

FORECAST REASONING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. THE ALREADY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HEMISPHERIC FLOW
BECOMES STAGNANT BUT NOT COMPLETELY BLOCKED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW A LENGTHY PERIOD OF RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S EVERY DAY. THE
FORECAST IS LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR POP-UP DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
MS. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY USHERING IN A PATTERN
CHANGE. THIS IS TOWARD DAY 8 IN THE FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN THIS SOLUTION AT PRESENT.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE KTUP TAF AT
THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.