Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 211734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016
Updated for aviation discussion
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1154 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/
High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South today.
This will provide a pleasant autumn day for the area. Current
temperatures are in the mid to upper 50s. Expect highs to reach
into the 60s this afternoon. Current forecast looks good. No
updates are expected.
DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/
Well weather fans, I hope you have a secondary hobby because the
next week or so isn`t going to be very interesting for you. No
rainfall is expected. Temperatures will return to above
normal...but luckily not nearly as warm as we saw last week. On a
positive note...fans of Fall will finally get a few days of near
to slightly cooler than normal temperatures, along with clear
skies and northerly breezes.
Early this morning, temperatures are mostly in the low to middle
50s. Moderate cold air advection...clear skies and low relative
humidity will keep temperatures dropping by a degree or two per
hour through sunrise. Morning lows will be in the middle 40s to
near 50 degrees. The last time Memphis had a morning low of 50
degrees was early May. Light northerly winds will continue today.
Afternoon highs will be in the low to middle 60s across the
region...although winds may make it feel slightly cooler.
Saturday morning, the Midsouth will likely feel the coolest
temperatures since last April. Memphis and most of the Delta Area
is expected to cool into the low to middle 40s with temperatures
as low as the middle 30s in West Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. At least patchy frost is expected across most of West
Tennessee and North Mississippi, especially near the Alabama state
line and Tennessee River.
Surface high pressure and a weak ridge aloft will build across
the Midsouth Saturday and remain the dominate players in the
forecast well into next week. As a result...temperatures will trend
a few degrees warmer each day through at least Monday...then level
off Midweek. We should see above normal afternoon highs by
Sunday...mainly in the mid 70s with low to mid 70s for most of the
upcoming work week.
Guidance does bring a weak cold front through Midweek. Moisture
levels are expected to remain low ahead of the front so widespread
rain is not expected. Additionally...guidance is usually too
progressive with these features...so will lean toward a drier and
warmer solution through the end of the work week.
VFR through the period. North winds at 10-15 kts with higher gusts
will diminish early this evening. Expect winds less than 5 kts
overnight into Saturday morning.