Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 231107 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
607 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS PROVIDED THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH CURRENT READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S...TO MID 50S. EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI`S FORESTS AND LAKES.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY
CLOSE TO NORMAL. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES
WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY/OZARKS THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE ENERGY REACHING THE MIDSOUTH BY 3 PM
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 50 TO 60 KT MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE ONLY SLIGHT DISCREPANCY WITH THE MODELS LIES
WITH THE TIMING...WITH THE NAM BEING FASTEST.

ON THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN
WESTERN KANSAS TODAY...AND TRACK TO INDIANA BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS ACTION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TOMORROW EVENING. A PLUME OF LOW TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO SURGE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT TOMORROW...AND
IT NOW APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI BEFORE
SUNDOWN. CAPE AMOUNTS IN THE ZONE WILL REACH NEAR 1200
J/KG...THOUGH WITH WANING INSTABILITY NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT THE
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE CRITERIA AFTER SUNSET FURTHER EAST.
WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO REFLECT THIS NEW CHANGE. THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TO THE MIDSOUTH ON
FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING AS A NEW HIGH PLAINS SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WARM FRONT
BECOMING STALLED IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE MIDSOUTH WARM SECTORED...AND ALMOST MUGGY AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S. THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH
WILL BE CAPPED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF SUNDAY. THIS...ALL
DEPENDENT ON THE ABSENCE OF ANY LEAD SHORTWAVES THAT MAY CLIP THE
REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY APPEARS MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO MISSOURI AND A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OZARKS. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. BUT REMEMBER
THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL/FIRST WEEK OF MAY IS THE PEAK OF THE
MIDSOUTH SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COOLING TO THE 70S BY MONDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY MUCH COOLER 50S AND 60S BY WEDNESDAY.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (23/12Z-24/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. WINDS TODAY NE-E 7-8 KTS. WINDS
TONIGHT LIGHT SE.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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