Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 031723
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1123 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are cloudy across much of the forecast area this morning
with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Rain
has been slowing moving north and covers most of north Mississippi
and portions of east Arkansas. It looks like the rain should move
into southwest Tennessee later this morning. Will update forecast
to remove morning wording with no big changes needed.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION.../issued 423 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

A potent upper level low pressure system over the Northern Baja
of Mexico will continue to move east today as a northern stream
shortwave ejects southeast from the Northern High Plains. Moisture
will continue to stream north into our region through the
day...lifting isentropically above a retreating continental polar
airmass which remains over the region. This should result in
mainly light rain overspreading much of the Mid South today.
Temperatures should remain cool with abundant cloud cover and
light rainfall.

Light rain should continue over the entire area through Sunday
morning until the northern stream shortwave sweeps east and
pushes a weak cold front through northern sections. A drier
airmass should filter into northern sections and bring an end to
the rainfall for Sunday afternoon and night. As the weak front
stalls across southern sections...rainfall should continue in
these locations through Sunday night. Cool temperatures will
remain through the remainder of the weekend.

By Monday...the upper level low pressure over northern Mexico will
lift out to the northeast with surface low pressure developing
along the Upper Texas Coast. This upper system should take on an
increasingly negative tilt as it lifts across the region by Monday
night. At the same time...surface low pressure will lift northeast
up across the Delta and deepen. This should allow a surface warm
front to lift north from the northern Gulf Coast states by later
Monday afternoon...approaching portions of northeast Mississippi
later Monday night. A surge in low level dewpoints is expected
along and south of the warm frontal system. The surface low will
eventually occlude from the warm sector as it advances northeast.
There remains uncertainty as to exactly when this will occur and
how far north the surface warm front and associated rich low
level moisture will reach. At this time...it appears that the
quality warm sector airmass will remain to our southeast...but
this is still somewhat in question. Deep layer and low level shear
with this system will be quite strong as lapse rates steepen in
association with the strong upper level feature. If the warm
sector can lift north into portions of our area...then there will
be a threat for severe weather...including all severe weather
threats. Again...there remains uncertainty regarding the eventual
evolution of this system and it bears watching over the next few
days.

This system should lift out to the northeast on Tuesday bringing
an end to rain and thunderstorms and leaving a mild airmass in its
wake. Dry and seasonably mild temperatures can be expected across
much of the region from later Tuesday through most of Wednesday.

By later Wednesday...a deep upper trough and associated strong
cold front will approach from the west. Scattered showers may
develop ahead of this system across western sections of the area
by late Wednesday afternoon and spread across the remainder of the
Mid South by Wednesday evening. Much colder temperatures will
filter in later Wednesday night behind the front. The upper
trough hangs back behind the front and with lingering moisture may
result in some light snow or flurries after midnight across the
western half of the region. This precipitation will spread southeast
by Thursday morning. Any wintry precipitation should be cosmetic
and not result in too many travel issues. Just a quick shot of
winter weather to remind everyone of the calendar.

Cold and dry weather will push in for the end of next week as
arctic high pressure settles over the region. High temperatures
will likely remain in the 30s with lows in the teens and 20s.
Another quick moving system may bring another round of light mixed
precipitation by next Saturday night before warming temperatures
change all precipitation to rain by Sunday. Winter will have
arrived by later next week and stick around through at least the
first part of next weekend.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z TAFs

Cigs will continue lower at all TAF sites over the next 6-12 hours
resulting in IFR or lower conditions. expect IFR cigs at MEM by
01z, JBR bu 02z...MKL by 04Z and TUP by 2300Z. Cigs will remain
IFR for the remainder of the TAF cycle. Light rain will continue
through the TAF cycle at MKL and TUP...with a few breaks possible
after 12Z at MEM and JBR after 12Z. FG/BR may also worsen Vis
especially toward morning at MKL and TUP. Winds will remain from
the East between 4 and 8KT.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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