Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 060526
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1126 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE MIDSOUTH
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE TEENS OVER NORTHEAST
AR INTO NORTHWEST TN...TO THE MID 20S IN NORTH MS. AT 9 PM...TEMPS
WERE ONLY 4 DEGREES ABOVE THE MARCH 6 RECORD LOW AT TUPELO.
JACKSON/S 9 PM TEMP WAS ALREADY UNDER THE MARCH 6 RECORD LOW.

THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GO CALM OVER MOST THE MIDSOUTH
TOWARD SUNRISE...YIELDING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AT
THAT TIME.

FORECAST RECENTLY UPDATED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST CLEARED THE ENTIRE CWA.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WHERE THE
SLEET/SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW. EXPECT READINGS
TO RANGE FROM -2 DEGREES FROM A LINE NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
KENNETT MISSOURI AREA...TO AROUND 17 DEGREES IN ABERDEEN
MISSISSIPPI. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
DROP TO SUBZERO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HELP REFREEZE ANY OF THE
SNOW/SLEET OR RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT ON THE ROAD. THUS HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE SUN WILL HELP TO MELT THE
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...IT
MAY TAKE INTO SATURDAY POSSIBLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOCATIONS TO LOSE ALL THE ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ON SATURDAY...HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO THE
MID 50S NEAR ABERDEEN MISSISSIPPI.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD FAR ENOUGH
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TO AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF KEEPS
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP 20 POPS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA BY MID
WEEK...SHIFTING EAST BY THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS OUT OF THE THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE
GFS IS MUCH LATER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS
FOR NOW.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AT TUPELO
WILL WEAKEN IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WIND SHIFT FOR MOST SITES
WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-
     RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON MS-DESOTO-
     MARSHALL.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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