Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 190313
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
913 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCREASE LOW TEMPERATURES AND ADD SOME FOG TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRECHED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS EVENING AS WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. THE FLOW
ABOVE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NEAR SURFACE COLD
STABLE LAYER. THIS MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SOME ADVECTION
FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR
LEVELS...4-6SM...AND NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME. LOW
LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME LOWER CIGS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. BELIEVE THAT
THESE WILL DEVELOP EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CIGS COULD
EVENTUALLY APPROACH IFR CRITERIA BY 08Z AT JBR...MEM AND MKL. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT HOW LOW SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL
FALL...HOWEVER...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DO EXIST
SO HAVE REPRESENTED SUCH IN THE TAFS...MAINLY FOR JBR...MEM AND
MKL ONCE AGAIN. WILL MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CIGS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TOMORROW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
WHICH COULD BEGIN TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO TUP AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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