Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 011926
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
226 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Currently the upper level low that has been affecting the
Midsouth the past few days has drifted north from the Ohio River
to near Fort Wayne Indiana. A large swath of low level moisture
though is still circulating around the center with a good chunk of
the Midsouth area seeing near overcast skies. The closest shower
activity however is well north into Illinois. Temperatures this
hour range from the upper 60s to the low 80s as you bisect the CWA
from northeast to southwest. Winds are westerly at 5 to 15 mph.

Tonight through Tuesday...continued dry this period as the low
center decays and slides into New England. Skies will become mostly
clear tonight with patchy fog forming before sunset. Believe there
will be fewer clouds each day...with light west winds eventually
veering east. Highs will climb into the low and mid 80s for most
with lows warming into the 60s by Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...a slowing trend seen by the GFS and
EURO with the approach of the next longwave trough/energy out west.
On Wednesday the first shortwave is progged to tilt negative as it
swings from the mid Missouri Valley to the Upper Midwest. That
energy will likely miss the Midsouth...keeping convection to our
west while we remain hot and dry. The second wave in the trough
will have a better affect on the area starting late Thursday and
into Friday. This energy will give the slowly approaching cold
front a final push through the region...but still feel that rain
chances won`t be that impressive with boundary. So in response
have delayed the onset of rain next week and lowered coverage.
The threat for any severe weather along the front also appear
very slim. In addition...kept temperatures on Thursday warm and
have gone above guidance with next Friday`s highs as well.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF Set

VFR conditions are generally expected over the next 24 hours.
Although some patchy fog may occur at KMKL and TUP late tonight
into early tomorrow. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon
near MKL...but coverage is not expect to be great enough to
include VC in TAF. Generally light North winds...calm overnight.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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