Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 042355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...EVENING CONVECTION AFTER 8PM WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE GULF AND ATLANTIC BREEZES HAVE
COLLIDED. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE DRY ASIDE
FROM ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE WATERS AND POSSIBLY REACHING EASTERN
METROPOLITAN AREAS. FOR RAIN-COOLED AREAS...TEMPERATURES WILL
DEVIATE LITTLE FROM THERE CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS/HRLY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

.AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY MOVED
WELL WEST OF MOST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH A FEW LINGERING -
SHRA AND ADDITIONAL SHRA ENTERING THE AREA FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR EAST COAST THROUGH
05/02Z-03Z. LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR WILL
AFFECT GULF COAST...POSSIBLY KAPF 05/01Z-03Z SO HAVE ADDED MENTION
OF VCTS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
CONVECTION OVER WATER. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DELAYED SLIGHTLY AGAIN
ON SAT AND EARLIER AT APF...THOUGH BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO REGION MAY
HELP KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
TODAY...AROUND 05/16Z-17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES...AS STORMS SHOULD BE STEERED SOUTHWARD AS THEY SLOWLY
PROPAGATE INLAND. ACTIVITY MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED H5 LOW FORMING
OVER THE NE GULF/NRN FL. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DISORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OFF THE N FL / GA COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL AIDE IN NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE PENINSULA...AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THE
TROUGH/FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS THIS WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY WEAK
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AS M/ULVL TEMPS
DECLINE...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AND A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY...AS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOPRES
WILL RETROGRADE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THE SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL FADE AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE RESULT WILL BE A SOUTHERLY WIND...BECOMING EAST LATE
WEEK. PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD RETURN TO TYPICAL FOR WET
SEASON...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION...MOST LIKELY OVER
INTERIOR AREAS.

MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  75  89 /  40  70  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  77  91 /  30  70  40  60
MIAMI            78  92  77  92 /  30  70  40  60
NAPLES           77  92  76  90 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...88/ALM


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