Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 040816
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG



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