Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 200034
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
834 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.AVIATION...
Through early Friday morning, low level moisture will continue to
stream southwestward from the Atlantic and across the peninsula.
Expect VCSH conds through this period, esepcailly south of KPBI.
Tonight, northeast winds will be light, less than 8 KT. Aft
20/1500Z, east northeast winds will become breezy again,
sustained 12-15 KT with occasional higher gusts. Decreasing
moisture will lead to drier conditions tomorrow with only isolated
showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 747 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

UPDATE...
Radar and satellite data show most of the shower activity
happening south of a line from Naples to Boca Raton, which is
associated with a lingering frontal boundary located near the
Florida Keys. POPS/WX will be adjusted to reflect this trend, but
still keeping low-end chances of rain for Palm Beach county
through the rest of this evening.

A drier pattern should establish Friday as the frontal boundary
continues to dissipate, although there will be enough remnant
moisture for another round of afternoon showers.

rest of the forecast looks good and no further changes are
required for the evening update.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Short term (Tonight-Saturday)...satellite and model data depict a
lingering stationary frontal near the Florida Keys, and keeping a
large swath of enhanced moisture across South Florida. Not much
so far in terms of heavy rain, but there are scattered small cells
moving NE to SW, bringing brief periods of moderate rain at
times. This shower activity will continue through Friday, although
a decrease in activity is expected later tonight. A few brief
thunderstorms are also possible.

Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms each day,
with best chances during the afternoon hours. Temperatures
should remain near normal values. Current moderate N/NE winds will
gradually veer to the ENE starting Friday and through Saturday as
high pressure starts building across the region in the wake of the
FROPA.

Long Term (Saturday night-Wednesday)...strong high pressure is
shown by the models building across the western Atlantic and the
SE states Sunday and Monday, with tighter pressure gradients
resulting in periods breezy winds. These winds will become mainly
easterly early next week.

Global model solutions show another trough deepening over the
eastern half of the US, sending an associated cold front into
Florida by Tuesday. Expect an increase in atmospheric moisture
early next week as winds become SE and then S as the cold front
approaches. Models agree in pushing the front into the Florida
Keys by Wednesday. This front may finally bring a significant
change in temperatures, with cooler conditions and lowering dew
points. In other words, the first days of fall-like weather.

MARINE...
N/NE winds continue during the next few days, with speeds to 20
kts on Friday. Winds will become more easterly later in the
weekend but will remain breezy through the weekend. Seas in the
Atlantic waters will be up to 5 to 7 feet for the rest of the week
and into the first part of the weekend.

BEACH FORECAST...
Stronger NE-E winds for the upcoming weekend may combine with high
astronomical tides, bringing water levels along the east coast
to near coastal flood criteria. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains
in effect for Palm Beach County through Saturday. This may need
to be extended southward to include Broward and Miami- Dade later
this week if conditions warrant.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  76  86  81  86 /  30  40  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  78  87  80  86 /  50  40  50  50
Miami            77  89  79  87 /  40  40  50  50
Naples           74  91  75  90 /  20  30  10  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ650-670.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for GMZ676.

&&

UPDATE...17/AR
DISCUSSION...17/AR
MARINE...17/AR
AVIATION...27/JT
BEACH FORECAST...17/AR






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