Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 290720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE INTERIOR-GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA ALL THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...SOMETHING THAT HAS
BEEN RATHER RARE THIS SUMMER SEASON. THE RESULT WILL BE THE
CONVECTIVE FOCUS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR/GULF COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR TODAY...A WEAK SAL/SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BE ENTERING SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER
ARRIVING AT ABOUT 4,000 FT WITH A CAP DEVELOPING. ABOVE THE CAP,
LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC...AND H5 TEMPS WILL BE
COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (AROUND -7.5C). SO
IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WE MAY HAVE THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY/DRY MID
LEVEL AIR TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SAL
PERIPHERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP...AND A SEVERE STORM
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT THAT`S A MUCH LOWER THREAT SO
WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT STRONG IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE SAL WILL BE MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY, LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SKIES WILL BECOME HAZIER.
AFTERNOON TSTORMS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY
FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...AGAIN WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SAL FADES. THIS
WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE EAST...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
/GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PREDOMINATING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL
BE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. THE SMALL NE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...AS
THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME SAHARAN AIR WORKING INTO THIS AREA FROM THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. SO WILL ONLY SHOW A VCSH AFTER 13Z TODAY FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES.

THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5 KNOTS AT KAPF
TAF SITE BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z...AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES
INLAND. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KAPF TAF
SITE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF AFTER 18Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES TODAY...BUT COULD FALL DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KAPF
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITE. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE STORMS IS NOT KNOWN AT
THIS TIME TO PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR KAPF TAF SITE. 54/BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  79  90  79 /  20  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            91  80  90  80 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           92  77  92  77 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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