Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 211742
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOGUH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE BULK OF 24 HR TAF PERIOD...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REMAINS
CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS EXTENDING NORTH
FROM FLL AND VCSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS OPF/TMB/MIA DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER CLOUD COVERAGE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY OVER THESE
SOUTHERN SITES. 85/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTION INDICATES MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...MAINLY FOCUSING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MAY TURN ONSHORE AS A
RESULT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OUTSIDE OF THIS POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THAT HAS PUSHED TO THE
NORTH AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. REMNANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
AND WEAKEN FURTHER. OTHERWISE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS ARE PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY AS
OCCURRED YESTERDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE ASSOCIATED REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN DRAPED
ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD AGAIN
KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN H5 SHORTWAVE SURGING
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BECOMING CUTOFF FROM
THE MEAN FLOW. AS IT DOES...THIS WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE PUMPING
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL KEEP AN ONGOING WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIKELY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO
RETURN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO A
MORE GULF BREEZE ORIENTED SETUP WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
THEN AGREE WITH SLIDING THIS RIDGE FURTHER WEST AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT BY ONLY A SMALL MARGIN. SO, HAVE CARRIED A PROB30
GROUP FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE,
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING
IFR UNDER ANY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL THEN SET
UP AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  86  76  85 /  20  60  30  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  86 /  20  60  40  70
MIAMI            77  87  78  86 /  20  60  30  70
NAPLES           76  86  75  86 /  20  60  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI



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