Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 291727
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
127 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds
will remain out of the Southeast around 15 knots through tonight
across all terminals in the region. These winds will then
increase to 15 to 20 knots by the middle of Sunday morning with
some gusts up to 25 knots especially in the afternoon. Dry
conditions will also prevail as high pressure remains in control.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

UPDATE...
No changes needed to be made to the previous forecast as
everything looks on track. High pressure will continue to dominate
the weather pattern across South Florida bringing dry conditions
to the region. Breezy conditions will take place this afternoon as
winds will be out of the Southeast at 20 to 25 mph. Breezy and dry
conditions are expected on Sunday as well as high pressure remains
in place.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 728 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds
will increase out of the Southeast across all terminals as the
morning progresses to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
especially during the afternoon hours. Winds are expected to
remain out of the Southeast during the overnight hours near 15
knots across all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Through Sunday: Similar to yesterday, surface analysis
overlaid with 500 mb shows a broad troughing from the Ohio Valley
to the southern plains and a cold front draped southward along
the Appalachians. Meanwhile, surface high pressure sits anchored
near Bermuda. This feature has been responsible for the persistent
southeasterly flow across South Florida the past several days.
Southeast winds along the east coast metro have continued breezy
overnight, gusting to around 20 mph at times. Weaker winds were
reported in the interior. These winds should create mixing and
prevent the development of thick ground fog. For today, models
indicate the 592 dm upper level high pressure center to edge
northward over the western Atlantic. This will cause a slight
decrease in maximum temperatures compared to yesterday, mainly
along the east coast metro region. Continued strengthening surface
high pressure near Bermuda will tighten the pressure gradient and
maintain breezy east southeast flow. By this afternoon, winds may
become sustained 20 to 25 mph near the coast, slightly weaker
across the interior. Maximum temperatures will be a few degrees
above seasonal norms today, warming to the mid 80s along the
Atlantic Beaches and up to near 90 for the western interior and
Gulf. The synoptic pattern changes very little on Sunday, with a
only a slight westward movement of the aforementioned surface
high. Thus, breezy southeast winds and above normal temperatures
will continue through the remainder of the weekend. Subsidence
aloft will make it difficult for convection to form and have left
ghost PoPs in the forecast for today. Guidance suggests isolated
showers could drift over the east coast metro late tonight and into
the day Sunday.

Early to mid next week: On Monday, both the GFS and ECMWF push a
cold front across the eastern CONUS. In response, the Bermuda
high will be displaced eastward, further away from the FL
peninsula. This will allow deeper moisture to creep northward
from the Carribean. Forecast PW values, according the GFS, may
rise to above 1.50", indicating an increase in atmospheric
moisture. The combination of diurnal heating and increased
moisture will produce lift, giving way to a chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Typical of a southeast flow pattern,
the interior will have highest precipitation probability/coverage.
On Tuesday, as the front washes out further north, residual
moisture overhead will lend to another shot of diurnally driven
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The next large scale feature,
a cold front, should approach South Florida on Friday. The GFS
and ECMWF are finally coming into agreement on the timing, though
ECMWF is a few hour quicker on the passage. If current guidance
holds, next weekend, behind the front, will bring a return to dry
weather with seasonal temperatures.

MARINE...
Strong surface high pressure near Bermuda will maintain breezy
southeast winds over the water through Sunday night. Small craft
advisories have been issued to account for sustained wind speeds
between 20 and 25 kt. There may be isolated light showers through
Sunday night. However, deeper moisture entering the region by
early next week will increase the chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

BEACH FORECAST...
Strong southeast winds will generate a high risk of rip currents
along the Atlantic beaches through at least Sunday night. The rip
current risk will slowly lower by early next week as winds begin
to weaken.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  85  77  87 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  78  85  77  86 /  10  20  20  20
Miami            77  86  77  87 /  10  20  10  20
Naples           72  89  73  88 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday
     for GMZ676.

&&




AVIATION...55/CWC






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