Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 040835
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
435 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST
COAST...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BU THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS TX/LA AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WEST FL COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE GULF.

SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, KEYING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.

THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS IN PLACE TO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT: THE
110KT UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW 30-40KTS, AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT HEATING, BUT LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE TRENDED LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
STORMS PROVIDING MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING. MORE HEATING ALSO
MAKES AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
MID TO LATE MORNING, SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL. WITH HIGHER PWATS IN PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN. IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DOES
DEVELOP, ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS AS STORMS
APPROACH THE COAST.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL INTO MONDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-UPPER
60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY 15-20KTS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT`S EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 20KT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EMPHASIZE MORE 15-20KT THAN
SOLID 20KTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SCA. HOWEVER, A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE WIND FORECAST COULD RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EITHER
THE GULF OR ATLANTIC.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS THE REST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20KTS OVER THE ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT-
FRI MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SEAS 2-3FT MOST OF TODAY, BUILDING TO 4-6FT OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POST- FRONTAL WINDS. HIGHER SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND TRANSPORT WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEADING TO
EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY RAPID FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WORKS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS KEEPING DISPERSIONS IN THE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RANGE. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  67  85  62 / 100  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  68  86  66 /  90  80  10   0
MIAMI            86  66  86  65 /  90  80  10   0
NAPLES           81  68  81  63 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALM


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