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000
FXUS62 KMFL 260019
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
819 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE EAST COAST REPORTING GUSTS UP TO 27 MPH IN SOME LOCALES.
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR THE WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MEXICO IS SUPPRESSING THE MOISTURE TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ONLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH
ONLY A MINOR CHANCE OF A FEW WEAK MARINE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT, WHEN THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE IS HIGHEST. NO WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE LOW
90S FROM NAPLES TO MAINLAND MONROE. FOR MONDAY, A FAST MOVING
SHOWER MOVING FROM NE TO SW INTO THE GULF WATERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE IN THE DAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A MOSTLY DRY NE/E WIND FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ONLY ISSUE IS WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE
DAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALONG WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH TODAY WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A
SUPPRESSED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA REFLECT THIS AND
GENERALLY INDICATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING CONFINED WITHIN
THE LOWER 4 KFT UNDERNEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY DROP TONIGHT AND
BOTTOM OUT JUST ABOVE HALF OF AN INCH SUNDAY BEFORE STEADILY
TRENDING BACK UP INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHALLOW BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST WRF SOLUTIONS...WHICH INDICATE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ASHORE OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW UP
TO AROUND 18 KFT ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST AREAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DUE TO THE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...MAINLY BRIEF SHOWERS WILL BE
ANTICIPATED. ALONG THE EAST COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. 85/AG

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN
GULF WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
DEEPER LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A DEEPENING OF THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD OCCUR AROUND MID-WEEK AND PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE IF FUTURE GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

BD

MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...MARINERS
OPERATING SMALL CRAFT ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION...MAINLY
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND.

AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES...STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY BY
SUNDAY DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SURF.

FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THAT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  82  73  83 / -  10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  85  77  86 / -  10 20 10
MIAMI            75  84  75  85 / -  10 20 20
NAPLES           69  91  69  91 / -  10 10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM