Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 061802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...

AS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTS TO SET-UP...VCTS ASSIGNED ALL
EAST COAST TERMINALS IN 18-19Z TIME FRAME. AS WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS...VCTS ALSO ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 19Z. FOR EAST
COAST TERMINALS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OF TERMINALS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF THIS AFTERNOON.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT IS IN
LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS.

THE 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATED A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
REGIONS. THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WAS INDICATIVE OF THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HAZY SKIES
CONTINUING. THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR HAIL WILL BE LESSENED TODAY
WITH MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AS REVEALED BY
THE SOUNDING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND AND WEST OF ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KPBI ASSIGNED
VCTS AT 18Z. TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z WITH ON-SET OF SEA
BREEZE AND ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KAPF WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ARE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER HAZY DUE TO THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL). AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THIS SHOULD
DELAY THE ONSET OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE.
FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN BE THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CREEPS BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN DEPICTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

HEATING ALONG WITH CONTINUED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS A
RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TODAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY AS THE SAL LOOKS TO
PERSIST ONE MORE DAY. STEERING FLOW HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
STRONGER AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS IMPRESSED WITH A PASSING H5 TUTT-LIKE LOW
PUSHING INTO THE BAHAMAS BY MIDWEEK...WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES FURTHER
WEST AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PWATS
PROGGED AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR LOOKS TO
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVERALL.

AVIATION...
EVENING CONVECTION PERSISTED WELL PAST EXPECTATIONS...AND SE
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROVIDED ABRUPT WINDSHIFT AND SHWRS/TSTMS
TO EASTERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS NOW OVER FOR
ALL BUT MIAMI-DADE...BUT NW WIND PREVAILS. EXPECT BY SUNRISE FOR
WINDS TO RETURN TO EASTERLY...THEN INCREASE TO 10 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST FOR EAST COAST...BUT VCTS
IN NAPLES AS GULF SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK AT AROUND 10 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-3 FOOT
RANGE...TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY. ISOLATED MAINLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  79  91 /  20  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  89  79  89 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            80  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  92  75  93 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD


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