Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 241112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
612 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Isolated light showers continue to advect on shore from over the
Atlantic. Breezy east southeast winds will persist through the
remainder of this morning, mainly 10-13 KT. Aft 24/1400Z, expect
winds to increase around 15 KT with occasional higher gusts.
These winds will begin to weaken as evening approaches. SCT/BKN
low clouds should be present through the period along the eastern
portion of the peninsula with bases 2000-3500 FT agl.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018/

The ECMWF and the GFS in good agreement with the Bermuda high
hanging on for the weekend, then weakening the beginning of next
week. This will keep the east to southeast wind across the region,
and showers periodically moving onshore this weekend. The GFS is
showing some CAPE across the region, less than 1000 joules, but
NAM model soundings are showing an inversion starting just over
800mb persisting through the weekend, which should hinder
convective development, and thus, only showers are in the forecast
at this time. This will need to be re-evaluated with new
soundings and model updates to see if the cap may erode enough to
be broken and allow thunderstorm development.

By Monday, a cold front is progged to approach the area. The
models are in agreement with the front weakening as it does, and
possibly even dissipating over the area. The tail and looks to
make it to around the Lake, maybe Palm Beach county. The tail end
may get lifted back to the north as high pressure builds over
Bermuda by the middle of the week. Really, the front does not look
to make a significant impact on the region, except perhaps a wind
direction change. Models are not even indicating any significant
enhancement for showers attm.

As the front lifts away for the latter half of next week, models
are indicating clearing skies, and a couple of dry days. Dew
points remain in the 60s and high temperatures continue to run in
the low to mid 80s for the week.

By the end of the week, a stronger cold front approaches the area.
Again, the ECMWF and the GFS are in pretty good agreement with
this. The front is progged to move through the entire CWA by
Saturday morning. Both models are indicating this should be a dry
passage. But, it does look to bring somewhat cooler temperatures
for next weekend, with the highs in the 70s for most of the CWA.
The dew points look to be the most significant change, with the
current forecast calling for them to drop into the 40s and 50s by
Saturday morning.

A Bermuda high is forecast to maintain the east to southeast wind
for most of the weekend. The high should begin to weaken on
Sunday, ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the area on
Monday. The wind is forecast to gradually relax over the next
couple of days. Showers will continue to be possible, especially
over the Atlantic waters through the middle of the week. Seas are
forecast to subside to generally 2 foot or less by the end of the
weekend, and persist that way through the middle of the week. For
the latter half, seas are currently forecast to build back to 4
to 5 feet in the Gulf stream.

The Bermuda high is forecast to maintain the breezy east wind
through the day. This will bring a high risk of rip currents to
all the South Florida Atlantic beaches today. The wind is forecast
to relax beginning tonight, into tomorrow morning, possibly
reducing the risk to a moderate risk for Sunday.

West Palm Beach  81  72  84  72 /  40  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  80  74  81  73 /  40  20  20  20
Miami            83  73  84  73 /  30  20  20  10
Naples           85  68  85  67 /  20  10  10  10


FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.


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