Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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652
FXUS62 KMFL 170018 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
718 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Isolated showers that are currently affecting the metro areas of
Broward and Palm Beach Counties this evening should come to an in
late this evening as the winds will be relaxing over the area.
Therefore, have added a slight chance of showers to Broward and
Palm Beach metro areas this evening.

Rest of the forecast looks good and no other changes are planned
at this time.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR is generally expected through the period, though some Atlantic
showers could bring brief bouts of MVFR to mainly the Broward
terminals. Fog is possible tonight at APF, which could bring sub-
VFR conditions to that terminal after 06z. Confidence is not high
enough to introduce restrictions at this point, but short-fused
amendments may be necessary later tonight if fog development
occurs before 06z.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/

.High Risk of Rip Currents east coast beaches of South Florida
through late tonight...
.Mostly Dry weather for the week into next weekend...

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
Low pressure over the central United States will move northeast
into the Great Lakes by Wednesday before moving east into the
northern Atlantic waters by late this weekend. This will push the
high pressure over the southeastern United States southward into
South Florida by middle of this week and remain over South Florida
late this week. Therefore, the breezy easterly winds that been
occurring over South Florida will relax and become southerly by
middle to end of this week. This weather pattern will also allow
for the quick moving light showers to end over the east coast
metro areas tonight and remain dry over South Florida through rest
of the week.

With the winds relaxing and becoming more southerly over South
Florida through the week, low level moisture should increase over
the area each day. This will lead to fog formation over South
Florida each night, with patchy to areas of fog over the
interior/west coast areas late tonight into early Tuesday morning
and more widespread late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. The east coast metro areas could even see some isolated
to patchy fog late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with
the best coverage over the western sections of the east coast
metro areas.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
The long range models are showing the high over South Florida to
break down this weekend as low pressure develops over Texas.
The low will then move slowly northeast into the Tennessee Valley
by early next week pushing a strong cold front southeast into
South Florida.

This will keep a southerly wind flow over South Florida this
weekend along with dry weather, before the winds become southwest
ahead of the cold front and allow for scattered showers and even a
few thunderstorms to affect the area early next week.

The long range models are also showing that there could be a mid
to upper level jet moving through the area early next week. If
this trend continues, then a few of the storms could become
strong over South Florida early next week. Therefore, stay tuned
to our forecast through out the week for the weather for early
next week.

MARINE...
The winds will continue to be breezy from the east over the
Atlantic waters tonight, before slowly decreasing to 10 knots or
less by middle to end of this week from the southerly direction.
For rest of South Florida waters, the winds will be easterly at 15
knots or less from the east tonight swinging slowly southerly by
middle to end of this week. The seas will also be 6 feet or less
in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida this week.
Therefore, SCEC will continue for the Atlantic waters tonight.

BEACH FORECAST...
The High Risk of Rip Currents will continue along the east coast
beaches of South Florida through late tonight for the breezy
easterly wind flow. At this time it looks like the threat of rip
currents will slowly decrease along the east coast beaches of
South Florida through rest of the week, as the wind speeds
continue to slowly decrease and swing to a southerly direction.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  68  81  66  81 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  70  80  68  80 /  10  10  10  10
Miami            69  81  67  81 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           61  81  61  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...54/BNB
DISCUSSION...54/BNB
MARINE...54/BNB
AVIATION...02/RAG
BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB



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