Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 261431
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. THUS...LIGHT SSW TO SSE SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM WEST COAST TO EAST COAST RESPECTIVELY
THROUGH TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MAY MAKE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY
CLOSER THE EAST COAST...BUT OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE ONLY SCATTERED EAST COAST. NUMEROUS STORMS JUST SSW
OF KAPF ARE ONGOING...AS OUTFLOWS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE
THROUGH THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS ALSO FIRING INLAND...EXTREME EASTERN COLLIER AND EXTREME NW
DADE. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY. HRRR
AND SOME LOCAL MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO
PERHAPS CENTRAL DADE COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL
BE MOVING NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS ISN`T ANY GREATER THAN
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER BISCAYNE BAY AND WERE
MOVING NORTH...AND THESE COULD GET NEAR KMIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO THERE IS FORECAST TO BE
MORE ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. KEPT VCTS FOR
NOW...BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS
THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  40  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  30  20  20  10
MIAMI            89  80  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD



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