Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 081501
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1001 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through this afternoon, followed by
cold high pressure Friday into Saturday. The high will move
offshore Sunday with a cold front approaching from the west
Monday. The front will cross Monday night followed by high
pressure Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Thu...No changes needed with morning update. Still a
small threat for an iso sprinkle or shower though moisture very
limited so no more than a trace anticipated.

Previous discussion...As of 645 AM Thu...Latest sfc analysis
shows ill defined front moving through the Piedmont region this
morning, with cold 1047mb high pressure centered over southern
Alberta extending into the central US. The front will approach
from the west this morning crossing the region this afternoon.
Latest satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover ahead of the
front, while radar imagery shows very little precip
upstream...though maybe some sprinkles across central NC. Models
continue to trend drier today, though the high res models do show
potential for very isolated light showers across late this morning
and early afternoon...with best chances across the coastal plain.
Will keep iso shower mention despite the limited moisture and
forcing, with most locations remaining dry. Light S/SW flow head
of the front should allow temps to warm to around 55-60 degrees.
Winds become NW and gusty after the frontal passage this afternoon
with temps falling as CAA ramps up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM Thu...Strong high pressure will build in from the
west overnight with increasing CAA...and much colder/drier air
filters into the area. Skies will continue to clear from west to
east. Overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s inland and mid to
upper 30s along the Outer Banks. Gusty NW winds along the Outer
Banks tonight, gusts 25-30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thu...The coldest air of the season expected Fri
into Sat. Temps moderate Sunday then series of cold fronts will
cross through mid week.

Fri through Sat Night...Main story this period will be cold air
assoc with strong high pres building in from the NW. Highs both
Fri and Sat will be mainly in the low to mid 40s with lows Fri
night and Sat night reaching couple dgrs either side of 25 inland
to lower/mid 30s beaches.

Sunday and Sunday night...As the high begins to slide offshore
Sunday and hgts aloft rise temps will increase with high mainly
mid 50s to near 60. Increasing southerly flow Sunday night will
increase moisture over the area and may see a few shra with slight
pop.

Mon thru Wed...Cold front will be approaching from the west
Monday and cross the area Mon Night with chc of shra and mild
temps with highs Mon in the lower to mid 60s. High pres will
quickly build in on Tue with near seasonal highs in the 55 to 60
dgr range. Another front is expected to cross Wed however low
confidence given lack of model agreement and consistency. For now
will keep pops in slight range Wed with highs again in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 645 AM Thu...Ceilings beginning to lower to MVFR this
morning. Forecast soundings and guidance in good agreement showing
MVFR ceilings persisting through early afternoon, before quickly
returning to VFR. Isolated showers possible just ahead of the
front late this morning and afternoon. Light S/SW winds this
morning become W/NW and gusty behind the front this afternoon as
CAA ramps up.

Long Term /Fri through Mun/...
As of 215 AM Thu...Strong/cold high pres with very dry air builds
in Fri thru Sat with VFR and mainly clr skies. NW winds will
likely be a bit gusty Fri. The high will slide off the coast Sun
into Mon with return flow leading to some increase in
clouds sunday and a chc of shra Mon. looks like VFR will cont Sun
and most of Mon with poss brief sub VFR in shra.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As 645 AM Thu...SCA conditions expected to develop this evening
and tonight. Latest obs show variable winds ranging from SW to NE
generally 5 kt or less, with seas 3-5 feet north of Ocracoke and
2-3 feet south. A cold front will move through the waters this
afternoon with strong high pressure building in from the west
tonight. Winds becoming westerly 10-15 kt this afternoon, then
becoming NW 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening and tonight.
Seas will build to 4-7 feet with increasing offshore flow.

Long Term /Fri through Mon/...
As of 215 AM Thu...NW winds 15 to 25 kt early Fri will diminish
to 10 to 20 kts late Fri and cont in that range into early Sat
before diminishing further to less than 15 kt late Sat as high
pres builds closer. Seas of 5 to 7 feet outer waters early Fri
will subside to 3 to 5 feet late Fri into early Sat then 2 to 3
feet by late Sat. Light winds Sat night through most of Sun as the
high crosses and moves offshore. Seas will be mainly 1 to 3 feet
thru Sun. S to SW winds will increase to 15 to 25 kts ahead of a
cold front Sun night into Mon with seas building to 5 to 7
feet...highest outer central and southern waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Friday for AMZ130-131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Friday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD



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