Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280455
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOWS GENERALLY
LOW/MID 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT ANY REDUCTIONS
TO VSBY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...UPR RIDGE SHARPENS TO THE W TUE ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO DROP SE THRU THE REGION. NOT MUCH
TO FOCUS PRECIP WITH STALLED FRONT CONTG WELL TO THE SOUTH. CONT
CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
ARND 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND
KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY WED AND THU. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPR RDG FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION
SAT AND SUN. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE
SE CST WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS FRI THRU MON GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG AND TIMING OF
PCPN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90
INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME PATCHY
FOG BUT WILL KEEP IN MVFR RANGE GIVEN PERSISTENCE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURNOFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MAINLY
VFR TUE...EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CVRG OF CONVECTION INLAND TOMM
BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CVRG THIS FAR OUT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED
AND THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THU NIGHT THRU FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A ROLLING 10-11 SECOND SWELL.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THIS PATTERN CONTS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE WITH A LIGHT ELY FLOW ARND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED FRONT TO
THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 15 KTS THRU
WED. AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE LATE WEEK WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S TO SW THU AND FRI WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
AOB 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE WATERS FRI THRU SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4FT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK


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