Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 180700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through late this
week then slide offshore over the weekend. A strong cold front
will approach from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 215 AM Wed...Other than some patchy SCU near cst expect
mainly sunny skies today as high pres remains in control. After
a cool start temps shld moderate nicely with highs reaching upr
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Wed...Good radiational cooling expected once again
inland as winds go light and skies remain mclr. Cont prev fcst
of lows ranging from around 45 well inland to 50s/around 60
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...High pressure will be the dominant feature
through the long term with temps moderating back to above climo
by the end of the week, then a strong cold front progged to push
through the region early next week.

Thursday through Friday...High pressure will build into the
region and remain through the end of the week bringing clear and
dry weather with light northeast winds through this period. Low
relative humidities will spell mild days and seasonably cool
nights. Temps start out a bit below normal with lows in the mid
40s interior to mid/upr 50s beaches Thu morning, then as the
week goes on low level thicknesses rise each day with high temps
creeping back above climo with readings 75-80 both Thu and Fri,
cooler low 70s on the OBX.

Saturday through Sunday...High pressure will slowly ease offshore,
and winds will veer a bit more to the east by Sunday with
slight increase in RH vals. Low lvl thicknesses on par with MOS
guide in forecasting high temps around 80 for most areas, with
lows 50-55 interior to 60-65 coast. Column moisture remains very
low so continued dry forecast with mostly sunny skies.

Monday and Tuesday...Next significant shortwave/cold front
moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. Ahead of the
system, winds become southerly and strengthen by Monday bringing
surge of increasing deep layer moisture into the region, with
increasing clouds and shower chances. Still differences in
timing as run-to-run consistency amongst global model suite
having a tough time resolving amplitude of short wave trough and
thus timing of the associated cold front. Have maintained the
small chance pops for Monday, increasing a bit to 40-50% Mon
night and Tuesday when this looks like the best chance for
showers attm. Too early to tell if thunder will be a factor, but
have included slight chc thunder mention as at least some weak
instability will be present with decent shear parameters. Highs
in the upr 70s/near 80 and lows quite mild in the 60s with
strong southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1215 AM Wed...Pred VFR thru the period with high pres in
control and a dry airmass leading to mainly clr skies. With
winds now light to calm inland temps quickly have reached dewpts
and can not rule out patchy shallow fog developing prior to
daybreak. Given uncertainty will add tempo of reduced vsbys
late mainly for deeper inland sites. Could again see some patchy
fog early Thu morn.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long
term as high pressure builds into the region. However, there
will be optimal radiational conditions each morning, and some
patchy steam fog may be possible at both KPGV and KEWN with
their proximity to rivers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and tonight/...
As of 215 AM Wed...High pres to the NW will slowly move S and
remain to the W tonight. This will cont to produce NE winds
mainly 10 to 15 kts N to 15 to 20 kt central and S. Seas of 4 to
7 feet today will finally drop below 6 feet central and srn
wtrs tonight. Only change was to slightly extend SCA central
wtrs where wave guidance keeps 6 ft seas til late tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...The gradient relaxes later Thursday through
the weekend with high pressure nearby. N to NE winds through
Sat becoming more easterly on Sunday though speeds only 5-10 kt
through the period with seas 2-4 ft bringing excellent boating
conditions throughout the marine zones.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.