Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 261400
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will meander just off the coast through Tuesday Night.
High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday through late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 AM Monday...Latest sfc analysis is showing the frontal
boundary off the Carolina coast has pushed farther SE with most
of the precipitation along it. Therefore have decreased PoPs
with the support of the latest High-Res models. Still kept PoPs
along the southern waters as some showers may skirt along the
waters. Today will be a comfortable day as dewpoints will be
lowering which will lead to more sunshine and rain-free across
Eastern NC. Expect highs in the low/mid 80s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Surface ridge will slowly start to build in
from the west tonight pushing frontal boundary further
offshore as axis of mid-level trough approaches. This will serve
to push any precipitation even further offshore and will
forecast dry weather overnight. Pleasant temperatures for late
June expected tonight with lower 60s inland ranging to the lower
70s Outer Banks as dewpoints drop into the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Mon...Scattered showers expected Tuesday. Then,
cooler and much drier air will spread into Eastern NC Wednesday
through late week. Typical summertime pattern redevelops late
week into next weekend with temps a few degrees above normal and
scattered diurnal driven convection.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...A strong mid-level shortwave
will move through Virginia and the Carolinas Tuesday into
Tuesday night, supporting scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm. Forecast soundings indicate marginal instability
but strong shear and much cooler temps aloft, 500mb temps drop
to -12/-14C, could see some small hail especially a few hours
in the afternoon/early evening. Will continue chance PoPs with
slight chance thunder, but think it will be isolated. Low level
thickness values and predominant N/E flow support highs in the
low/mid 80s Tuesday, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Much cooler Tue night with lows dropping into the upper 50s
inland and mid 60s along the coast.

Wednesday through Sunday...Strong high pressure will move overhead
Wednesday, and off the coast late week into the weekend. While
overhead, this high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass
with lower humidities and cooler temps. Temperatures quickly
warm back up however, as southwest winds return on Thursday and
highs creep back to the mid 80s/90 degrees late week and the
weekend. Low temps in the 60s mid week, then warming back into
the 70s this weekend. Typical summertime pattern redevelops late
week into next weekend, with troughing inland and high pressure
offshore. Dry wx will cont through late week, with scattered
diurnal convective chances by the weekend. Will continue chance
pops inland/sc along the coast Sat and Sun, with isolated precip
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Tuesday/...
As of 715 AM Monday...Patchy mid to high level clouds will
persist through most of the day today, thicker east of the TAF
sites near the coast. Most of the remainder of the forecast will
be in the VFR category, but with winds likely to decouple inland
tonight, will forecast some radiational fog as temps/dewpoint
drop with MVFR vsbys from about 08z-12z Tuesday morning.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 245 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Scattered showers and storms may produce
brief period of sub-VFR conditions Tuesday. As usual, patchy
fog/stratus will be possible most mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 10 AM Monday...Latest buoy observations are showing N/NE
10-15 knots and seas 2-3 ft. Made minor tweaks to the wind
forecast to reflect observations. Winds will continue to veer
from the NE/E by later this morning then to S/SW by tonight
ahead of next cold front, but speeds should remain at 10 knots
or less. Seas will remain at 3 feet or less through the period.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 245 AM Mon...Generally benign and pleasant boating
conditions expected through late week. A weak cold front will
move through early Tuesday, N/NW winds 5-10 kt early, becoming
NE/E with seas around 2 ft. Surface high pressure will build
over the area Tuesday night from the northwest, crest over the
waters Wednesday, and move offshore Thursday. Winds will shift
to north/northeast 5-15 kts Wednesday, then become southeast to
south 5-15 kts on Thursday. Gradient will tighten Fri with high
pressure offshore and troughing inland, S/SW winds increase to
10-15 kt. Seas will be generally 2-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG/CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD/BM



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