Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP


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