Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 160154
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 951 PM MON...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SHOWERS IN SOUTH
CAROLINA MOVING EAST NORTH EASTERLY AND SOME OTHER SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY LIGHT FLOW. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MID-WEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN THRU THU CANT
RULE OUT SOME SHRA FROM TIME TO TIME AS WEAK SHRT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATES THRU BROAD UPR TRF OVER REGION. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS SRN TIER CLOSER TO HIGHER PRECIP WATER AXIS. KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD TSRA IN SRN TIER THRU WED WITH WEAK INSTAB PRESENT. HIGHS WED
WILL REACH AROUND 80 THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TO 75 TO 80 THU AS
THICKNESSES LOWER A BIT. HAVE DRY WX INDICATED FRI THRU SUN AS
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N AND PUSHES MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER
S AND E. STILL CANT RULE OUT SPOTTY SHRA CST BUT LOOKS INSIGNIF SO
NO MENTION. NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S
FRI...MODERATING SLOWLY TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MON SO ADDED SLIGHT CHC TSRA DURING AFTN
WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM S AND SHRT WV FROM W. ALL
GDNC IS INDICATING IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER LIMITING LOWER CLOUDINESS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...THUS KEPT
PREVIOUS FCST OF LOWER MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUE
MORNING WITH WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTM THREAT WITH SHRT WV AND WEAK FRONT MOVING
ACROSS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THU WITH JUST VERY BRIEF
POTENTIAL OF MVFR IN PRECIP..ALSO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY ST/FOG LATE
AT NIGHT. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO CONT WITH VFR AS STRONGER HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING
REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 953 PM MON...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THENORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING RUNNING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE LAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE SO SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 3 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BECOMING S/SW 5-10KT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUE...MOVING THROUGH LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
N/NE LESS THAN 15KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL START TO SEE INCREASING
LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD
THROUGH THE DAY TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED. LEANED CLOSER TO WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS THRU
WED AS SWAN LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH POCKETS OF 8+ FT SEAS.
SWELL WILL DIMINISH THU HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED...MAINLY 5
TO 7 FT.  LEANED TWRD ECMWF/HPC FOR SAT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS
SEAS THEN GFS/WAVEWATCH INDICATE. STILL KEPT SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT
RANGE SAT PER PERSISTENT LONG NE FETCH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.