Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 011930
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY POSSIBLE THRU THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE,
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE EAST BUT LACK OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SIGNALS LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED PRECIP OVERNIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN
CANADA HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE SE US AND WILL RESULT HAZY
SKIES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER
70S INLAND TO UPR 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD TROF WILL
APPROACH TOMORROW AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING WITH SFC HEATING THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MODEST...AND BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURE RISE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...LONG TERM PORTION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH
BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS VORT CENTERS
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW  MAKING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
POPS DIFFICULT. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS
EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE A LITTLE BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VERY SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS LEFT OVER FROM KDPL
SOUTHWEST TO KLBT AND KCPC, THOUGH THE STRATUS LAYER IS MIXING OUT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SPREADS IN. CONTINUED VFR TONIGHT AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LARGE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THAT
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION, THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS WITH LOCALLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY...
DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...SW WINDS PICKING UP AS SFC TROF SHARPENS
INLAND WITH SPEEDS MAINLY INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SW WINDS WILL AGAIN SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER THU AFTERNOON.

SEAS HAVE DROPPED BLO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND
LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS REMAINING BLO 6 FT UNTIL LATER
THU AFTERNOON. WILL DROP THE CURRENT SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS, AND
POST ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD TO 6 FT OVER OUTER WATERS SOUTH OFF CAPE
LOOKOUT BY LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER. WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING...AND THAT MAINLY IN
THE OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT WATERS. SEAS 3-6 FEET SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4 FEET NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...DAG/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA


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