Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 211103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 14Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY
THIS MORNING JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH
WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30
PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE
COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD






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