Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
159
FXUS62 KMHX 221200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will be draped across Eastern NC today and tonight.
A strong area of low pressure and frontal system will impact
the area tonight bringing a chance for severe thunderstorms. The
low will traverse the area on Monday and be replaced by high
pressure Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will move through
the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 7 AM Sun...Light SW winds have overtaken E NC this morning
ending the fog for the most part. Warm front has migrated north
towards the VA border and this front will not move much today,
with northern areas remaining under low stratus and cooler temps
(low/mid 60s), with southerly winds and warmer temps to the
south (upr 60s/low 70s).

Likely pops for the first half of the day today, with next
batch of showers with a few embedded lightning strikes moving
into SE NC. This area of precip associated with shortwave
pivoting around deep upper low across the lower MS river valley.
Decent area of upper diffluence will maintain this activity as
it moves into and through E NC this morning into early
afternoon. Very little severe potential during the day today,
as limiting factor will be instability due to widespread cloud
cover and meager lapse rates through today. Cannot completely
rule out an isolated severe threat, though better chances of
severe will arrive this evening in association with parent upper
low to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Again, the best threat for severe is
expected this evening as low pressure tracks through west
central North Carolina. Very good kinematics in place with
strong diffluence aloft, strengthening swrly LLJ, and backed sfc
flow producing large hodographs. Am quite concerned for a
tornado or two given the extreme low level speed/directional
shear in place, though this shear can only be realized if
discrete cells can become sfc based. High res NSSL WRF/NCAR Ens
convective allowing models indicate the threat being confined to
the immediate coast (Downeast Carteret through the OBX zones),
given interior zones remaining in east to northeast flow as the
warm front to the north will be in place across E NC following
earlier precip. ECMWF brings some sfc based capes inland a bit
more due to its stronger southerly flow, and would then see
better chance for severe across the interior zones. Regardless,
impressive dynamics ahead and along the approaching cold front
to the west along with warmer air surging in off the ocean may
offset the "lower" instability, with this system a prime example
of a high shear/low cape severe weather event. With these
impressive wind fields both damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes will be the main threats. All models are in good
agreement with the precipitation moving offshore late tonight.
Precipitation amounts could exceed an inch in many locations but
significant flooding is not expected at this time due to the
fast moving nature of the convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 am Sun...Latest run of GFS and ECMWF in good agreement
and used a blend. Deep surface/upper low swings across the
Carolinas Monday. Adjusted PoPs with just a low chance across
the southwest counties in the morning. In the afternoon went
with likely PoPs north and east with chance elsewhere. High
pressure will pass to the south Wednesday. A weak cold front
will pass through Thursday morning. Forecast soundings show best
available moisture confined to below 800 mb. Made no change to
current 30% PoP. The fast movement of the front will keep rain
amounts to only a hundredth or two of an inch. Dry weather
Friday and Saturday. Deep westerly flow across the region with
upper trof over much of the eastern US and a surface ridge to
the south and west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sun...Generally poor IFR/MVFR flying conditions for
the terminals through the TAF period. Currently, the only site
seeing IFR is PGV as light SW winds have scoured out br/low
stratus elsewhere. The next round of showers and thunderstorms
return this morning with brief hvy downpours and perhaps some
reduction in vsbys to MVFR. A break this afternoon then heavier
storms possible tonight bringing tempo gusty winds and heavy
downpours with another reduction in vsbys.

Long Term /Mon through Thu/
As of 3 am Sun...Scattered showers expected Monday, but amounts
forecast to be light so only MVFR conditions forecast. Next
chance of showers is Thursday, but again, amounts will be very
light so MVFR conditions expected. Dry for the remainder of the
time. Surface winds will be from the SW 10-20 knots Monday, NW
15-20 knots Tuesday, SW 10-15 knots Wednesday and W 10-15 knots
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sun...Winds currently 5 to 15 kt most areas with some
15 to 25 kt over the southern/central waters with seas 4 to 6 ft.
Seas will build tonight to 8-11 feet just ahead of an
approaching fast moving cold front. A few hours of gales
certainly possible for the southern/central waters though will
be short lived so will not issue any gale headlines at this
time. The higher seas will arrive across the northern waters
late tonight and have initiated SCA for Oregon INlet to
Currituck beach light starting around 06Z.

Long Term /Mon through Thu/
As of 3 am Sun...Flow will be west to southwest through the long
term period. Poor boating conditions on the coastal waters for
much of the time. Deep surface/upper low moves northeast across
the region on Monday. On the coastal waters 15-25 knots expected
with seas 5-9 feet. Seas north of Oregon Inlet will subside
below 6 feet Wednesday and Thursday, but will Small Craft seas
will continue into Thursday for the remainder of the coastal
waters. Across the sounds and rivers sub-SCA conditions
forecast, with winds generally 5-15 knots. Only exception is on
the Pamlico Sound Monday night and Tuesday with 15-20 knots
forecast.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/TL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.