Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280820
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES ROTATE AROUND THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT ACROSS EASTERN NC IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND UPPER 30S OUTER BANKS WITH A
STILL NORTHERLY BREEZE 10-20 MPH INLAND AND 15-25 OUTER BANKS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY..HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS INLAND RESULTING IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REACH THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EXPECTED AND
UPPER 20S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WHILE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NE US. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW ISO/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESP ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS THU/FRI 45-50 DEGREES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRI NIGHT AND SAT...AS STRONG CAA DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK INTO THE 20S/LOW 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN
SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH NWLY FLOW.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...MAINLY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
LOW AND TIMING. SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...THEN MOVE NE UP INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUN NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES
TO TREND STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE NORTH. INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY SUN NIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E MON.
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH TEMPS WARMING AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT. IF THE SYSTEM DOES TREND SLOWER TOWARDS THE GFS
THEN THERE COULD BE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS MONDAY...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SLY FLOW...COULD SEE HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEG.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED BROKEN 6000-8000 FT CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THEN DRIER AIR FINALLY PREVAILS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH WINDS
HAVE DECOUPLED INLAND. NNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 18 KTS
AT TIMES AS LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...AND COULD SEE VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUN...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES. LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A NNW FLOW MAINLY 15 TO 25 KT
TODAY THUS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINES. THE ADVISORY
OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL BE MARGINAL AS WINDS CURRENTLY ARE
RUNNING JUST BELOW CRITERIA BUT WITH HEATING TODAY THINK WINDS
WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. THE GUIDANCE DID INDICATE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS SO WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND
CONTINUE BUT THE ADVISORY COULD BE DISCONTINUED EARLY IF WINDS
REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. THE OTHER TOUGH CALL WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT BUT THE SWAN WAVE
MODEL KEEPS SEAS AT 6 OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
SO RELUCTANTLY EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL THE EVENING BUT WITH
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THU
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NLY WINDS 5-15KT START OFF THE
PERIOD THU BECOMING S/SW THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2-4FT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THU NIGHT...AS WSW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-6FT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES FRI
GENERALLY 15-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...WITH STRONG CAA SURGE 20-30KT DEVELOPING FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THINK STRONG SCA FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. GUSTY NNW FLOW CONTINUES SAT WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW
6FT BY SAT EVENING. BRIEF PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AND SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. NNW FLOW
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT BECOMING SLY BY SUN AFTERNOON.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUN...WITH SCA LIKELY
RE-DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD





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