Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 241704
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
104 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT WITH
SURFACE RIDGE LINGERING OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE WATER INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COOLER OCEAN WATER
IN THAT AREA. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL GRDLY SINK SWD ACRS ENC
TNGT WITH WINDS BECOMING LGT SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCR IN
LOW LVL MSTR. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ST/FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. MILDER WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE LWR AND
MIDDLE 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT PRODUCING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SHRT WV
ENERGY FROM W-SW WEAKENING RIDGE LATE WEEK WHILE SLOWING WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF UPR LOW OVER ATLC. WILL CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THU WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI-SAT AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS FOR PSBL HIGHER POPS.

LATEST GDNC CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHS IN MID 80S INLAND MONDAY
WARMING TO NEAR 90 THU-SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN 60S DURING PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY. NO FOG WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AND LOCAL FOG TOOL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY VSBY ISSUES TONIGHT
EITHER GIVEN A 4-PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD...DESPITE
MINIMAL MIXING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.
ISOLATED SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS AS SEAS HOVER AROUND 2 FEET. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
BY LATER TONIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING 3 FEET OR LESS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM NE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN S-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS.

SEAS AROUND 2 FT MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT BY WED-THU
DUE TO PERSISTENT S-SE WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...CTC/JBM



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