Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 201124
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
724 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the area from the north today
and then stall and dissipate offshore tonight. High pressure
will extend over the area from offshore Monday through
Wednesday, then a stronger cold front will move through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 600 AM Sunday...Updated for scattered shower/tstm activity
skirting along coast and increased cloud cover next few hours
for widespread low clouds over SW half of area. Convective
activity has blossomed south of Cape Hatteras past 1-2 hours and
expected to persist through 8-10 AM, affecting land area mainly
around Cape Lookout. Weak frontal passage still looks on track
by early afternoon as winds have shifted to northerly over
Chesapeake Bay.

/Previous discussion/
As of 300 AM Sunday...Latest guidance is indicating weak
surface cold front/wind shift line currently just north of area
will move south across area this morning, followed by weak high
pressure from the N-NW. No significant cooling or drying
expected with boundary passage except for temps a few degrees
cooler northern Outer Banks with NE to E wind. Deeper moisture
axis has shifted off coast with short wave trough moving into
area, and guidance in general agreement only isolated
shower/tstm threat along coast this morning and then over
southern sections this afternoon with weak convergence from sea
breeze combined with veering winds due to boundary passage.

Patchy fog and low clouds expected early this morning, mainly
for inland and southern coastal sections.

Max temps mainly upper 80s to lower 90s with mid 80s for
northern Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Weak high pressure will extend over area
from N-NE with surface boundary dissipating offshore. Convective
activity expected to remain offshore during evening, but some
isolated threat along coast overnight with light onshore flow.
Patchy fog and low clouds possible for mainly inland sections
late tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds. Went with
MOS blend for min temps, ranging from near 70 coastal plains to
mid 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...Forecast remains on track with a quiet
start to the week followed by increasing chances for rain
Wednesday into Thursday. Much cooler weather still expected by
weeks end.

Monday/Tuesday...Hot and humid weather expected both days with
inland highs into the 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s, keeping
muggy weather around. Most of the area will remain dry but a
front that has stalled over our area now will wash out over the
southern part of our forecast area. It will be here that a few
showers or storms will be possible during the peak heating of
the day. PWATS will be closer to climo this period, or around
1.5 to 1.75". This will make locally heavy rain a bit less of a
concern than it was the past few days with PWATS well above the
2" mark.

Wednesday into Thursday...A cold front will move into North
Carolina Wednesday and will be through most of our area by 12Z
Thursday. This front will be an anafront with the best chance
for precipitation along and behind it. With that thinking will
maintain high chance pops (50%+) ahead of the front Wednesday,
with the most likely period for raining coming Wednesday night
into Thursday. With a good chunk of Wednesday looking dry we
will make another run at 90 inland. By Thursday however cooler
air aloft, clouds, and rain chances will cap temps in the lower
80s.

Friday into Saturday....If you like the cooler weather for
Thursday, you will love our forecast heading into next weekend.
Highs will remain in the lower 80s both days, with lows at night
in the 60s! The 0Z GFS has slowed the progression of drier
weather quite a bit for Friday. Leaned toward a compromise
between the GFS, and the EURO and Canadian. The end result will
be showers lingering into Friday, especially toward the coast.
Drier air makes a more substantial push late Friday into
Saturday, which will finally dry us out along with increase our
chances for some sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Monday/...
As of 715 AM Sunday...Obs and satellite fog channel imagery
indicate widespread IFR/LIFR fog and stratus over SW half of
area including all TAF sites, with thickest low clouds from
KEWN-KOAJ. Heating expected to burn off fog/stratus at KPGV and
KISO by 13Z but likely to take until 14Z for KEWN and KOAJ. VFR
expected rest of day into this evening with just and isolated
shower/tstm threat for southern sections. Guidance supports
repeat of IFR fog/stratus again late tonight with weak high
pressure extending over area from NE. Winds will become NE this
morning behind weak frontal passage and then gradually veer to
E and SE this afternoon/evening but speeds remaining below 10
KT, then near calm overnight.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...VFR through Tuesday. Sub VFR conditions
possible late Wednesday into Thursday in scattered showers and
storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 600 AM Sunday...updated to indicated scattered shower/tstm
activity over southern waters early this morning. Rest of
forecast on track with frontal passage from north expected by
early afternoon.

/Previous discussion/
As of 300 AM Sunday...Current SW-W winds 5-10 KT will shift to
N-NE this morning as weak front moves south across area. Weak
high pressure will build in from N and extend over area through
tonight with winds gradually veering to E and SE 10 KT or less.

Seas mainly 2-3 feet today will become 1-2 feet tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...Quiet boating conditions continue through
Tuesday. During this period winds will be 10 kts or less with
wave heights 2 to 3 feet. With a boundary near the coastal
waters wind directions will vary quite a bit during this time
depending on location on the water (north to south).

Tuesday Night winds begin to increase out of the south as a
front approaches and by Wednesday marine conditions become less
favorable. Ahead of the front southwest winds increase 10 to 20
KT, with seas building to 3 to 4 feet as a gradient tightens
ahead of the front. We may see a few 5 footers outer central
waters during this time.

Behind the front winds shift into the northeast Thursday and
diminish to 10 to 15 kts. Seas take awhile to calm down
subsiding from near 4 feet early Thursday to 2 to 3 feet later
in the day.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB/EH
AVIATION...JBM/EH
MARINE...JBM/EH



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