Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231418
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
918 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall just to the south this morning then
lift back north later today and tonight. High pressure will
continue offshore over the weekend with continued very warm
temperatures. A cold front will move through the area Sunday
night into early Monday, followed by high pressure Tuesday into
Wednesday. Another system will impact the area late Wednesday
night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 915 AM Friday...The shallow cold front has pushed S thru
the region and will likely stall then weaken and slowly begin to
lift back N later today. Widespread low clouds over the region
expected to grad lift/erode from S to N later this morn and
aftn. Based on current temps and some delay in sun have lowered
max temps a bit with low/mid 60s NE to mid/upr 70s SW.

Prev disc...The persistent upper ridge while continuing to
flatten over the next 48 hours, will still influence the weather
through the weekend. Early this morning the backdoor cold front
was moving southwest through the extreme southern portion of
the area and should be south of the region shortly after 12Z.
Widespread low clouds and patchy fog was observed across the
entire area early this morning. Expect the fog over land to
dissipate after 13Z but linger along the coast north of Hatteras
possibly into the afternoon. The low clouds are forecast to
lift through the morning hours but are likely to persist until
early to mid afternoon until the front lifts back north through
the area. The NE flow behind the front will keep coastal and
eastern portions of the area cooler today with highs ranging
from the mid 60s across the northern Outer Banks to the low to
mid 70s inland. Across the southern zones temps will only be
slightly cooler than yesterday with highs in the upper 70s
expected as winds become southerly during peak heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...Southerly flow will prevail across
Eastern NC as the Atlantic surface high regains control of the
weather pattern across NC. Guidance continues to indicate low
clouds and fog developing after midnight as the low levels once
again become saturated. The models are in very good agreement
that showers developing over the Gulfstream could eventually
move inland and affect areas east of Highway 17 so have included
a 20-30% PoP. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 AM Friday...A record-breaking warm weekend will be
following by a high threat of showers Sunday night into Monday
night. High pressure will rebuild over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday before another system brings a threat of rain by
Wednesday night.

Saturday and Sunday...Deep moisture will increase from the south
and west and precipitable waters approach 1.5 inches ahead of
slow-moving frontal system over the weekend as upper level ridge
gradually weakens offshore. This will lead to a slight chance
of showers for Saturday with a slightly better chance PoP for
Sunday. The big story for the weekend will be the warm southwest
flow leading to more record-breaking warm temperatures. Sunday
looks especially warm as some inland locations could reach the
mid 80s.

Sunday Night through Monday Night...Latest GFS and ECMWF
continue the wet trend for Sunday night and especially Monday,
when the coverage of showers should be the greatest. Some timing
difference with the ECMWF a bit slower, but have raised PoPs to
likely for Monday, following high chance PoPs for Sunday night.
The rain should clear out Monday night, a bit later on the
ECMWF. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday behind the cold
front with highs generally in the low/mid 60s with some upper
50s on the northern Outer Banks. These readings are still about
8-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry high pressure will build behind the
exiting system Tuesday into Wednesday. The airmass behind the
front is not overly cold and more of Pacific origin. As a
result, highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight
lows in the 40s.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...A strong area of low pressure
will move from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley
pulling a warm front north across eastern NC Wednesday night,
followed by a decent cold front later on Thursday. This will
lead to a high chance of showers for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 645 AM Friday...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions, mainly in
ceilings are occurring early this morning and will persist
until mid morning with ceilings improving to MVFR late morning
into early afternoon followed by VFR conditions mid afternoon
through late evening. The guidance is in fairly good agreement
in developing low clouds and fog again after midnight as the low
levels become saturated below the nocturnal inversion.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...VFR conditions are anticipate for Saturday
as high pressure continues to circulate warm air into the
region on S/SW winds. Some periods of sub-VFR conditions, likely
MVFR, are expected Sunday into Monday as an approaching frontal
system will bring more numerous showers, especially behind the
cold front on Monday. Skies should clear late Monday night with
dry high pressure and VFR conditions for Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 915 AM Friday...Fog is grad lifting and will let DFA
expire top of the hour. Wave guidance conts to be underdone with
ENE swell and expanded 5 foot seas across central and nrn
wtrs...may bounce up to 6 ft briefly but will not issue a SCA
at this time and cont to monitor.

Prev disc...The backdoor cold front is expected push through
all the waters shortly after 12Z today causing the flow to
briefly become NE 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt through early this
morning. The flow is then expected to become light and variable
late morning into late afternoon as a bubble high builds over
the waters. Winds are then gradually forecast to become S/SW 10
kt late today, increasing to 10 to 15 kt tonight as the front
moves north of the waters. Seas will continue 2 to 4 ft through
tonight. Areas of fog with visibilities below 1 NM will occur
through mid morning and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued all waters to account for these conditions.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Friday...With high pressure offshore, winds on
Saturday should be SW at 5-15 knots with seas of 2-4 feet
Saturday, building to 3-5 feet Saturday night. A 24-hour window
of Small Craft Advisory are likely Sunday morning into Monday
morning with SW winds of 15-25 knots south of Oregon Inlet with
seas as high as 6-7 feet per the latest SWAN/NWPS model. Winds
veer to N/NE behind the cold front Monday and will run 10-20
knots before diminishing on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 02/24 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         84/1962     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    76/2017     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       81/1985     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    77/1996     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          84/1930     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     86/1982     (KNCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 02/25 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         80/2017     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    74/2017     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       81/2017     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    76/2017     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          84/1930     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     78/2017     (KNCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ130-131-
     135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JME/CTC
MARINE...RF/JME/CTC
CLIMATE...MHX



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