Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280511
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
111 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from the North and
Northeast through Sunday. A weak low will approach from the
southeast Monday through midweek. A cold front is forecast to push
through the area Thursday followed by high pressure from the North
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 110 AM Sunday...Satellite imagery indicates a retrograding
compact upper low just off the NC coast tonight. A large rainband
associated with this feature was occurring over the central and
portions of the southern waters and will moving over adjacent
coastal areas overnight. Made a slight increase in PoPs to account
for this. Elsewhere low level NE/E flow was occurring as high
pressure ridges south into the area. Analysis of the 00Z upper air
data and surface analysis revels a very moist low level airmass
across Eastern NC. As winds decouple, especially west of Highway
17, radiational cooling should lead to areas of fog and low
stratus clouds late. Lows will be from around 70 inland to mid 70s
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...surface high pressure will continue to
extend over area from northeast. Low level easterly flow and
energy associated with a upper level disturbance moving toward
area from east will produce a shower threat over eastern half of
area during the morning, then shower/tstm threat across all of
area with higher POPs inland for afternoon. Decrease in low level
thicknesses of 15-20 M and increased cloud cover and precip threat
will result in max temps mainly mid to upper 80s across area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A complicated forecast continues for the
long term period due to differences on movement and extent of
tropical activity to the south and an area of low pressure in the
Western Atlantic. Temperatures will generally be around normal
through most of the period until A front pushes through late week
with a cooler and drier airmass building into the area.

Sunday night...With the upper ridge weakened by a shortwave trof
that will push across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England
states and a weak front dissipating across the area, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to dissipate across the area
through the evening with loss of heating. Overnight the best chances
of precipitation will be towards the coast as weak low approaches
from the southeast.

Monday through Wednesday...a great deal of uncertainty remains with
the potential for a tropical system well to our south in the
Bahamas. However,chances of development have decreased and it is
appearing that that system will not play a large role in our
weather. The models are in better agreement for a weak low currently
south of Bermuda to track towards the NC Coast Monday and linger
into Wednesday. Chances are low for any tropical development with
this low, but it will bring increasing moisture across the area and a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
produce heavy downpours. Daytime highs will be held down into the
mid/upr 80s due to the cloud cover and precip and we will have warm
and muggy nights with lows in the 70s.

Thursday through Saturday...Models are in better agreement that
upper troffing will develop later in the week with a cold front
pushing through the area on Thursday. This will push the lingering
weak low and moisture off the coast and out of the area. Will have
some lingering PoPs in the area Thursday and across the southern CWA
on Friday. Expect a drier more comfortable air mass moving in Friday
into Saturday bringing more comfortable temperatures and lower
humidity. Lows Friday Night will fall to the mid 60s inland and
expect highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday night/...
As of 110 AM Sunday...Continues to look like IFR conditions will
occur after 8Z as low clouds and areas of fog develop in the moist
easterly low level flow. Just about all of the aviation guidance
is indicating this and OAJ has been reporting LIFR conditions in
fog this evening in the aftermath of earlier heavy rains. BUFKIT
is indicating that the IFR conditions could persist into early
Sunday afternoon. In addition to the fog and low clouds, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as an upper
level low off the coast affects the area. High pressure ridging in
from the North will maintain the moist easterly flow through
Sunday night setting the stage for the redevelopment of low
clouds and fog again after 6Z.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Scattered to potentially numerous
showers/storms expected through at least Wednesday. This may be
exacerbated by tropical moisture streaming into the area and
potentially limit cigs to sub MVFR as indicated by model
soundings. Areas of fog and stratus will be possible each
night/early morning with moist low levels and light winds. By
Thursday a cold front will begin moving through the area, pushing
some of the moisture offshore and to our south with a lesser
chance for showers and thunderstorms by Thursday Night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 110 AM Sunday...High pressure will continue ridge south into
the waters through Sunday producing a Northeast to East flow over
the waters. The strongest flow 10 to 15 KT will continue to occur
over the northern and central waters along with the sounds with
lighter 5 to 10 KT winds expected over the southern waters. Seas
will continue 2 to 4 FT through Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A weak frontal boundary will dissipate
across the region Sunday while high pressure builds back in from
the north with a coastal trough/weak area of low pressure
retrograding into the waters early next week. Predominant winds
through Sunday night will be easterly 5-15 kts with seas 2-4 feet.
A weak area of low pressure will approach from the SE Monday and
linger over the area through Wednesday as it potentially merges
with a front moving into the area Thursday. Most indications are
that the area of low pressure will be quite weak with little
chance of tropical development. The main impact will be increased
moisture resulting in shower and thunderstorm activity across the
waters. Currently the wind forecast will be 10 to 15 kt or less
through the period. Winds will generally be E/NE into Tue,
becoming SE/S Wed and North on Thursday behind the front. Seas on
the coastal waters will average 2-4 feet through early Sunday
Night. Long period swell of 13-15 seconds is forecast to impact
all coastal waters beginning late Sunday Night as swell energy
from very distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston starts to arrive. Seas
expected to build to 3-5 feet, though could see the outer central
waters build to 6 feet through Tuesday with a period of SCA
conditions possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/JME/BM
MARINE...RSB/JME/JBM/BM



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