Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 300150
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
950 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak boundary will stall over the area tonight
then lift back north by the end of the day Saturday. A weak cool
front will approach from the northwest early next week then stall
near the area by mid week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM Friday...Weak cold conts to sag S to around Cape
Hatteras this evening. Band of showers and storms along the
boundary have remained mainly over the Pamlico Sound past couple
hours. This convection is starting to weaken as it approaches
Ocracoke Island. Radar also shows some weakening convection over
eastern S Carolina moving E. Will keep small pop southern tier
overnight with bndry in the area with no pop across the north.
Will have another warm and muggy night with lows in the 75 to 80
degree range across the area.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Friday, the surface trof which has been over the mid
state area most of the week will shift closer to the coast
Saturday and the weak boundary that moved into the northern CWA
will lift back to the north. The chance of a shower or
thunderstorm will increase a bit on Saturday into the 30 to 40
percent range. Highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints ranging
from the lower to upper 70s across the region will make it feel
hot and humid again, but like today, heat indexes will only flirt
with the 105 degree mark or higher. The chance of increased clouds
and showers and thunderstorms would also serve ti limit the chance
of getting heat indexes over 105. Given that, will not issue a
heat advisory for Saturday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM Friday...Pattern will become increasingly unsettled
this weekend into mid week as the mid/upper ridge breaks down and
transitions to a broad trough. Conditions will improve late week
as high pressure builds in.
Saturday Night into Sunday...Mid/Upper level ridge continues to
break down as the broad trough over the Tennessee Valley continues
to dig south. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary slowly sinks down from
the NW, but remains to the north. This will provide better chances
for showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during the
afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be about a degree or
two lower then Saturday. Expect highs in the low 90s inland to
mid/upper 80s along the OBX.
Monday through Friday...The broad trough axis will be over NC on
Monday, while several shortwaves moving through the flow through mid
week. At the sfc, the slow moving cold front will sink down into the
forecast area late Monday into Tuesday, then linger across the
southern coastal area Wednesday into Thursday. This will lead to
an increase of PoPs from scattered to widespread rain and
thunderstorms, especially for Monday and Tuesday. By Thursday,
frontal boundary will remain stalled to the south of the area and
models depict it will dissipate late Thursday/Friday as high
pressure builds into the area from the New England area. 850 mb
temperatures will decrease through the period and combined with
increased cloud cover...high temperatures will drop into the upper
80s/low 90s inland to mid 80s along the coast Monday. Tuesday
through Thursday, high temps will be a few degrees lower with
highs in the upper 80s inland to low/mid 80s along the coast. High
temps are expected to slightly increase Friday; with a high in the
low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast.
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short term /Through Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...Most of the time expect VFR however cant
rule out some patchy fog late tonight and brief sub VFR Sat aftn
with convection. With weak bndry sagging into the region expect
much lighter winds over the region tonight. With limited mixing
cant rule some patchy fog late especially northern tier behind
weak front and will add some MVFR vsbys to KPGV. Over more
southern sites will keep fog out for now given uncertainty on how
far S boundary will make it. Any fog that does develop tonight
will quickly burn off Sat morn. Better coverage of SHRA/TSRA
expected Sat aftn with short waves crossing and will add VCTS to
all sites starting at 18z.
Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/
As of 3 PM Friday...Scattered to widespread rain and
thunderstorms through mid week and will produce sub-VFR
conditions. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions under a SW flow 5-10
knots then shifting to NE after the frontal passage.
Short Term /Tonight and Sat/...
As of 945 PM Friday...Weak boundary is approaching Cape Hatteras
and expected to stall over southern sections later tonight. With
boundary moving S gradient over southern tier is loosening and
shld see the SW winds grad diminish. Light mainly NE to E winds
expected north of the front overnight. As boundary washes out or
lifts back N Sat will see SW winds return to all waters at 10 to
15 kts. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet northern waters thru the period.
Over southern tier 3 to 4 foot seas this evening will subside to
mainly 2 to 3 ft Sat.
Long Term /Sat Night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Friday...SW flow will continue into late Monday as the
frontal boundary moves in from the north and reaches the southern
waters by Wednesday. This will result in an increase of PoPs from
scattered to widespread rain/thunderstorms across the marine
zones. Expect, SW flow 10-20 knots and seas 2-5 ft with the
highest over the central/southern waters through Monday, then
winds will shift NE after the frontal passage. Seas will become 2
to 4 ft. Winds and seas however are forecast to remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels.