Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 270003
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE TAPERED
DOWN POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OBX COAST. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND
PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50". WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS
THE REGION USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH MID 40S INLAND TO
LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND-SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING
AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES
REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE BASED
INVERSION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING
WINDS TO DECOUPLE TO LIGHT OR CALM. VERY MOIST SURFACE AND LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD INDICATE A
FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT INDICATED IFR WITH THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. IF ANY FOG DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
06Z...ALLOWING THE NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS THE FOG LIKELIHOOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID THANKSGIVING
MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY. LOW
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED NE OF THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY AROUND 12Z
THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT BY
LATE THURS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 9-12 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
AND 4-8 FT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 3-6 FT
BY THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG



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