Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241435
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
935 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
tonight. A cold front with limited moisture will move through
late Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday then slide
offshore Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will cross
Wednesday night or early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 935 AM...Eastern NC remains in a narrow ridge of high
pressure surface and aloft between an offshore low an
approaching upper trough from the west. This will keep the
region in a warm and marginally moist E/SE low level flow. Still
observing bands of showers over the offshore waters moving west
toward the coast this morning. Trend has been for this shower
activity to weaken as it moves offshore, but there is a window
during the next 2-3 hours with surface heating for a few of
these showers to redevelop inland before subsidence with the
upper ridge inhibits development this afternoon. Will continue
slight chance pops from the Pamlico sound south and east for the
next few hours.

The big story today will be the very warm temps with highs near
80 inland to 70s along the coast. Records (see below) are
pretty high inland so while warm, we will likely fall just short
in many spots for records.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 3 Am Friday...

The distant low mentioned above should be farther out to sea by
tonight. With a drier forecast and less of a chance for clouds,
along with a moist easterly flow, areas of fog look likely
after midnight. Model soundings show a lull in the wind tonight
so some of the fog could be quite dense. Mins tonight will
remain mild or in the 50s to near 60 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Fri...Spring-like pattern through the extended
with much above climo temps expected before a stronger front
moves through by late Saturday. Temps temporarily back down to
near climo second half of the weekend into beginning of the work
week next week then warming back above avg with increasing rain
chances mid week.

Saturday and Saturday Night...Upr trf and deep sfc low will
track through Quebec on Sat, which will drag a cold front
through ENC Sat evening. Global model suite (ECM/GFS/CMC)
remains in good agreement with respect to timing and available
moisture with this system. The aforementioned low across the W
Atlantic will cut off rich GOM moisture advection ahead of this
front, so minimal chances of precip with the fropa. However,
models continue to trend wetter across portions of the area and
cannot rule out an isolated shower/tstm late afternoon/early
evening, especially across the northern half of the CWA, with
strong frontal forcing, MU CAPE values around 1000 J/kg, 50+ kt
bulk shear in place and an EML bringing steep mid level lapse
rates greater than 7C/km. An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm will be possible late Sat afternoon and early
evening...with best chances for areas along and north of Hwy
264.

Sat looks like the warmest day of the period as low lvl
thicknesses rise to between 1380-1390 meters under partly cloudy
skies yielding highs in the upper 70s/low 80s inland and low/mid
70s along the coast. Some guidance has inland SW areas getting
into the mid/upper 80s. Record high temps will be possible. See
climate section below for additional details. Lows will drop
into the 40s Sat night with gusty NW winds developing after
fropa with a drier airmass advecting into the region.

Sunday through Monday...Front will have swept offshore bringing
cooler/drier air courtesy of building high pressure across the
region. Highs will be near climo in the low to upper 50s Sunday.
Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon morning with good
radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and calm winds.
Monday will already begin a warming trend once again as high
pres shifts offshore and SW flow sfc and aloft develops. Temps
will rise into the 60s on Monday.

Monday Night through Thursday...A weak shortwave moving through
SW flow aloft brings increasing rain chances Mon night into
Tue with a stronger upper tough and sfc cold front approaching
from the west continuing to bring rain chances through mid-
week. 00z model suite continues to diverge with these systems
leading to below confidence in the details. The GFS is generally
wetter than the ECMWF through the period and kept sc/low chance
pops across the area due to the uncertainty. Kept slt chc of
tstms Tue as models indicate weak to moderate instab and shear
across the region, but again models are not in best agreement
with the amount of shear and instab either. A high shear/low
CAPE environment will be in place Wed/Wed evening ahead of the
cold front and continued slt chc of tstm mention. The GFS
continues to be much faster than the ECMWF, pushing the front
through late Wed, with the ECMWF moving the front through early
Thursday. High pressure will build into the area from the west
late week. Guidance continues to indicate further warming
through the week as heights/thicknesses rise well above climo
once again and yield high temps in the 70s most areas Tue and
Wed. Cooler behind the front Thu and Fri, with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s...and lows dropping back into the 30s/40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short term /Through 12Z Saturday/...
As of 645 AM Friday...IFR vsbys linger another hour or so at the
terminals before rapid improvement to VFR between now and 14Z.
VFR through early evening with an east wind at less than 10 kts.
Tonight looks even more favorable for fog formation after 06Z.
Medium to high confidence in IFR vsbys developing after 06Z,
with airport mins possibly being met prior to sunrise.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM
Fri...Mainly VFR through the extended period. Isol showers/tstm
possible late Sat afternoon/early evening ahead of a cold front,
which could bring a brief period of sub- VFR conditions. A much
drier/cooler air mass builds in Sunday into Monday, which
should limit overnight fog threat Sat night into early next
week. Moisture increases across the area Mon night and Tue
bringing a threat of showers/isol tstms with sub- VFR conditions
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 935 AM Friday...Although winds are expected to remain
light east /15 kt or less/ through tonight, Small Craft
Advisories will remain in effect for the coastal waters due to 6
to 9 foot swell associated with low pressure churning southeast
of the waters that will impact the waters through tonight.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 240 AM Fri...SE swell energy from a distant low pressure
system off of the southeast coast will continue to impact the
waters Saturday. SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt late Sat and
Sat evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A SCA will
likely be needed for the Pamlico Sound late Sat into early
Sunday, and maybe the Albemarle as well. Winds will shift to NW
20-25 kt behind the cold front Sat night and early Sunday with
winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt Sun afternoon. Seas will
briefly build to 5 to 8 ft Sat night then subside to 3 to 5 ft
Sun afternoon. Light winds are expected Sunday night, becoming
southerly 10-15 kt Monday. Southerly winds will increase to 10
to 20 kt Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front with seas
building to 3 to 6 ft late.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temps for Fri 2/24

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
New Bern             84/1962 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        75/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        77/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         86/1982 (KNCA AWOS)

Record high temps for Sat 2/25

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
New Bern             77/2000 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        69/1961 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1962 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        75/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         75/1996 (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EH/JME
NEAR TERM...JME/EH
SHORT TERM...EH LONG
TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...EH/CQD
MARINE...JME/EH/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX



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