Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 260727
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
327 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Monday. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning. A
warm front will move through from the southwest Friday. A cold
front will move through Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...High pressure offshore will continue to
extend into Eastern NC through tonight continuing the warm
southerly flow. Extensive high clouds continue to stream over
the region early this morning but are expected to thin.
Scattered to broken Cumulus clouds should develop with diurnal
heating this afternoon. Could see an isolated shower or two
developing this afternoon/early evening as a dampening mid level
shortwave moves across the area, but lack of QPF in the models,
especially in the CAM`s shied me away from adding to the
forecast. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the
mid to upper 70s inland and lower 70s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...Continued mild southerly flow as high
pressure extends into the area from the Atlantic. The dampening
shortwave will be east of the area after midnight. Other than a
chance for patchy fog late expecting partly cloudy skies with
lows 50 to 55 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 am Sun...Little change overall in the model solutions
for the long term. Surface/upper ridge along the east coast
Monday shifts east as the cold front approaches from the west
Tuesday. Will continue slight chance for seabreeze convection
west of Highway 17 Monday afternoon. Continued chance PoPs on
Tuesday except for the Outer Banks and adjacent coastal waters,
where better chance PoPs will be Tuesday night. Time sections
show a strong shortwave will pass through early Tuesday
evening with the deep upper trof. Good lift, convergence and
deep moisture along and ahead of it Tuesday afternoon especially
along the coastal plain. Instability parameters from forecast
soundings show very good instability, with freezing levels and
wet bulb zero heights supportive of hail. Upper trof axis along
with shortwave and deeper moisture move off the coast Tuesday
evening with Pops tapering off from west to east, with the
front will moving off the coast by around 12Z Wednesday. Dry
Wednesday and Thursday with a surface/upper ridge passing
through from the west. Rain chances return for Thursday night
into Saturday. The ridge shifts off the coast Thursday night.
The frontal boundary to the south will move back north in the
southerly flow. The warm front lifts through on Friday with the
cold front coming through Saturday night. Model guidance PoPs
going as high as likely Friday and Friday night, but will cap at
50% for now. Dry Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure
behind the front passes through.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 1245 AM Sunday...Still expecting a mainly VFR forecast
next 24 hours as high pressure continues to influence the
weather. Exceptions are late tonight and late Sunday night when
radiational cooling could lead to the development of fog and or
low clouds and periods of sub VFR conditions. Can`t rule out an
isolated brief afternoon shower Sunday.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 320 am Sun...Sub-VFR in isolated convection Monday
afternoon mainly at PGV and ISO, VFR/dry at EWN and OAJ.
Sub-VFR throughout in scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon, with a few storms possibly producing hail.
Convection ends from west to east Tuesday night, with a cold
front moving off the coast Wednesday morning. VFR/Dry Thursday.
Surface winds will be from S 5-10 knots Monday, SW 10-15 knots
Tuesday, NNW less than 10 knots Wednesday and NE 5-10 knots
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...High pressure will continue over the NC
waters through tonight. Warmer waters in vicinity of the outer
Central waters continue to result in deeper mixing and thus
stronger winds with gusts to 20 kt and seas to 3-4 ft and expect
this to continue into early this afternoon. Elsewhere southerly
flow 5 to 15 kt will continue today and tonight. Seas 1 to 3 ft
today are forecast to build slightly to 2 to 4 ft tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 320 am Sun...South to southwest flow continues Monday
through Tuesday night. A cold front will move off the coast
Wednesday morning with winds veering to northwest then
northeast, then continuing northeast into Thursday. Wind speeds
forecast no higher than 10-20 knots on the coastal waters and
5-15 knots on the sounds and adjacent rivers. Small craft seas
of 4-6 feet are forecast much of the time on the waters from
Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout Tuesday night into Thursday ahead
of the front, then in a northerly surge Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA


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