Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 041352
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
952 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL OUT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM WED...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. ANALYSIS OF OF
MORNING UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTS 850 MB COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS WITH A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PIEDMONT MOVING NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CURRENT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE/MOISTURE PLUME TO EXIT THE AREA BY
17Z THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON THEN SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 17 WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY DURING PEAK HEATING RIGHT
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST TO THE OUTER BANKS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS THEN INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS
PRODUCING POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. AREAS FURTHER INLAND /WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17/ MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S (UPPER 50S COAST) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE
A RENEGADE SHOWER ALONG THE OBX WITH FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS BUILDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLOUDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN TEMPS WILL BE OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
FREEZING LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 8K FT, VERY LOW FOR MAY
DUE TO THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING OVERHEAD, SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT
FOR HAIL IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THURSDAYS SURFACE
LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS BACK INTO EASTERN VA/NC AND BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
STACKED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN
FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1380-1390
METERS YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO THE MID
70S ALONG THE OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING/BISECTING EASTERN NC OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THOUGH THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY, SO WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS THINKING WITH HOLDING
OFF ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LATTER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE POPS IF COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES. GIVEN LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, EXPECT
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN
FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
VFR TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO E NC. COULD SEE AN ISO
SHOWER/STORM THOUGH WILL HANDLE WITH LATER TEMPO UPDATES SHOULD
THEY OCCUR DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SW TO W TODAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME BR DEVELOP AS
WINDS WILL BE CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE MOST POTENT
LOW APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REDUCED VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM WED...WINDS LIGHT THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS
BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE INLAND RIVERS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15
KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT. SEAS
ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PERHAPS DRIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS SWITCHING N TO NE BEHIND IT THOUGH
REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 520 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
WINDS 5-15 KT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE WATERS. A
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15 KT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
2-4 FT NEARSHORE. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 2-3 FEET. SEAS BUILD
3-5 FT SUNDAY DUE TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 FT. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS APPEARED REASONABLE OUTSIDE OF NW FLOW, WHILE WAVEWATCH
APPEARED GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL


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