Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 301409
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1009 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will remain quasi-stationary across the
Ohio River Valley today then move North Saturday and Northeast
towards New England Sunday pushing a cold front across the area
Sunday night. The front will stall off of the coast early next
week while high pressure builds in from the north. Hurricane
Matthew is forecast to move north of the Bahamas and off the
Southeast coast mid to late next week. Please see the latest
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for the latest on
Hurricane Matthew.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 1010 AM Friday...Only minor adjustments for hourly wx
elements with the morning update, otherwise the forecast remains
on track. The vertically stacked low pressure system centered
over KY will remain nearly stationary today. Meanwhile a weak
surface low resides across the western Carolina piedmont with a
stationary front extending east across eastern NC and a cold front
extending south across SC and the Southeast coast. Only sporadic
fog being observed across Eastern NC and should completely mix out
by 16Z. The surface pattern shifts ever so slightly north and
east today but we will remain under deep moist southerly flow
across eastern NC with PWAT values ~1.5-1.8 inches. A weak vort
max is rotating through the upper low and currently bringing
enhanced showers across eastern SC and southeast NC and expect a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms to lift north across
the area through the day today; moving into southwest sections
this morning and into northeast sections this afternoon. Highs
expected in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...The upper low over KY will very slowly
drift north tonight while the surface low lifts north into VA with
the trailing cold front approaching the area. Expect the deeper
moisture to shift to the coast with drier air aloft, as noted in
WV satellite imagery, moving into western sections leading to a
better chance of showers across the eastern half of the CWA
overnight. Light winds and abundant low level moisture will lead
to a good chance of fog across the region again tonight. Lows
expected in the mid to upper 60s well inland to mid 70s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...
Saturday...The quasi-stationary upper low will begin to move
north Saturday but still produce a deep cyclonic flow across the
area. The surface cold front will remain just to the west with
continued moist/unstable southerly flow ahead of it across the
region especially along the coast. Will continue chc pops coast
tapering to slight chc deep inland. Will remain warm with srly
flow producing highs in the low to poss mid 80s.

Sunday through Monday...As the upper low begins to lift NE Sunday
the sfc low/front slowly dissipates as it approaches Sun and
drifts off the coast and stalls Mon. Models cont to keep better
moisture along and East of the coast so cont low chc pops cst
Sunday tapering to slight chc Monday...inland areas will be mainly
dry. Not much change to temps with lows cont in the 60s inland to
low 70s cst with highs upr 70s to lower 80s.

Tuesday through Wednesday...High pres will gradually build in
from the N Tue and slide E Wed. This will keep most areas dry Tue
with small pop cst. On wed increasing onshore flow will lead to a
little better chc of showers across the region. Little cooler with
more pronounced NNE flow Tue and Wed with highs mainly 70s to poss
around 80 S.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast will be dependent on track of
Hurricane Matthew. Will increase rain chances especially coast and
keep cool high temps in the 70s in NE flow. Please see the latest
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for the latest on
Hurricane Matthew.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 745 AM Friday...Areas of LIFR fog across a good portion of
eastern NC this morning with greatest coverage north of highway
70. The fog expected to burn off between 13-15Z. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms bringing brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions will lift north across routes through the day with
better chances across southwest sections this morning, moving to
northeast sections this afternoon. Better showers chances will
reside across coastal sections tonight. Could see areas of fog
develop again tonight with abundant low level moisture and light
winds persisting but could see drier air working in from the west
which may minimize development. Confidence in occurrence is low
as soundings suggest less of a chance of fog while mos guidance is
very bullish with it.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Friday...Scattered shra and a few tsra cont Sat with
a period of sub VFR conditions possible. Drier air will work in
from the W Sunday into Tuesday with decreasing chc of shra and
mainly VFR...there will be threat of some late night and early
morning fog and stratus with light winds this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 1000 AM Friday...Latest surface and buoy data indicate S/SE
winds sound of Hatteras Inlet with E/ENE winds north of there,
around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt outside of any showers or
thunderstorms. A weak boundary bisecting the waters will slowly
lift north today while a weak cold front approaches from the W.
Expect to see winds become S across all waters this afternoon and
increase to around 10-15 KT through tonight as gradient tightens
some ahead of the cold front. Wavewatch and NWPS a bit underdone
with seas across the northern waters as it does not seem to have
been capturing stronger winds/swells off the Mid-Atlantic Coast
over the past day or so and buoys off Duck and Oregon Inlet
reporting seas around 6 FT. No change to current Small Craft
Advisory for the waters north of Cape Hatteras through this
afternoon, after which seas are expected to subside to around 3-5
FT tonight. South of Hatteras seas are expected to remain around 2
to 4 FT with up to 5 FT across the outer waters this afternoon and
tonight coincided to slightly stronger southerly flow.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM
Friday...Weak low pres/cold front W of the region Sat will lead to
mainly S flow aob 15 kts. The low/front will slowly slide E toward
the coast Sunday then move offshore by Monday. Light mostly S
winds Sunday will become NE Mon but remain weak. The ne/E flow is
forecast to increase to 10 to 15 KT Monday and 15 to 20 KT
Tuesday. Seas thru the period will be mainly 2 to 4 feet through
Monday then increase to 3 to 5 FT Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF/JME
AVIATION...RF/JME/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK/DAG



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