Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 292008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
408 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...HIGH PRES WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY AND TEMPS SHLD DROP QUICKLY. THINK SRN TIER WILL SEE
COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SHLD SEE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT HERE THE
LONGEST. LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE AS LIGHT SW
WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND WILL ALSO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING SRN TIER WITH MID/UPR 30S NORTH...BASED ON THIS WL HAVE
FROST ADVRY SRN TIER LATE EVENING THRU PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS LATE
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN
DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND
CONT INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME


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