Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 192102
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
402 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WAS
NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS
WERE LOCATED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF A CAMDEN...EVERGREEN...NAVARRE
LINE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS MEANWHILE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...LOCALLY NEAR 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER OUR CWFA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS THIS EVENING...BUT
NO RAIN IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BUILD
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND PERHAPS NEAR 80 OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
/21

UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND RAINFREE CONDITIONS. LOWS NEAR
50 OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID/UPPER 50S COAST.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS ON MONDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO
NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TREND HIGHER ON TUESDAY AS FRONTAL AXIS NEARS...OPERATING ON
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~1.4
INCHES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GOOD PROGRESSION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS
TIME AROUND LIKE WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE.

UPPER TROF PIVOTS EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA ALLOWS FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE
NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY. A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S DURING THE OUTLOOK. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION  [12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING. /21

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ELEVATED TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 3-4 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...
GENERALLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THIS FEATURE. A
LITTLE BETTER GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.
/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  75  54  77  57 /  00  00  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   54  74  57  77  60 /  05  05  00  05  10
DESTIN      55  71  59  73  61 /  05  05  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   49  76  49  80  55 /  05  00  00  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  79  50  80  55 /  00  00  00  10  20
CAMDEN      49  76  49  79  55 /  05  00  00  05  10
CRESTVIEW   49  75  50  78  53 /  05  05  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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