Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 231259

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
659 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.


.UPDATE...issued a quick zone update to remove high risk of rip
current header from beach zones. Still a moderate risk of rip
currents along area beaches. Otherwise no other changes to morning
forecast package. 12/DS


23/12Z issuance...Low MVFR clouds early this morning but skies
gradually clearing through the course of the day with mostly clear
skies overnight with VFR conditions expected then. Strong
northwesterly surface winds this morning, 15 to 25 knots with higher
gusts (especially near coastal areas). Winds decreasing through the
course of the day. 12/DS


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...Large and strong upper low
and associated surface low pressure finally moving off to the east of
the forecast area. The upper low will lift out of northeast Georgia
to just offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula by late tonight (12Z
Tuesday), taking the surface low with it. This will result in
ridging, both surface and aloft, building toward our forecast area
from the west today with the ridge axis oriented north-south almost
over our forecast area by late tonight. Wrap around moisture on the
backside of the departing system will bring some low clouds and
perhaps some patchy light drizzle to the forecast area early this
morning, but drizzle will be light enough to not warrant any precip
chance. By late this morning and through the afternoon, skies will
gradually begin to clear and remain mostly clear tonight. Breezy
conditions will continue this morning on the back side of the
departing system, with winds at many locations frequently gusting to
25-30 mph this morning over southern third of forecast area, and
20-25 mph over interior areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
the entire area through noon, but winds will begin to subside this
afternoon. Much cooler conditions expected today and tonight than
what we have been experiencing. Highs today are expected to be in the
low to mid 60s most areas, and will likely feel a little cooler than
that, especially until winds subside later in the day. Lows tonight
ranging from the upper 30s and lower 40s over the interior to the low
to mid 40s closer to the coast. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...Surface high pressure
is forecast to slip east over the area on Tuesday, resulting in sunny
skies, light winds and high temperatures ranging from 63 to 67. The
high moves east of the area Tuesday night allowing overnight lows to
moderate into the mid to upper 40s interior to mid to upper 50s coast
due to a return of a light southerly flow off the Gulf. Next front
swings southeast across the lower Mississippi River Valley on
Wednesday...which causes a narrow zone of deep layer moisture to pool
along and ahead of it. The southeastward movement of modest frontal
ascent within the deeper layer moisture brings next chance of
showers through the day Wednesday while a warm southwest flow ahead
of the front favors a return to mid to upper 70s for highs. The fast
eastward progression of the front brings a lowering trend to rain
chances by late Wednesday night with night-time lows dropping off
into the mid to upper 40s generally along and northwest of I-65. Mid
50s coast to up across the northwest Florida Panhandle. /10

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Rain-free weekend upcoming. In
the wake of the frontal passage Thursday, the southeast flank of a
strong high pressure system, centered over the Rockies, will ridge
eastward across the central Gulf coast through the medium range. The
position of this high suggests that we are in store for an extended
cool spell. Highs in the mid to upper 50s interior Northwest to
lower 60s southeast on Thursday look to not make it out of the 50s
area-wide Friday through Sunday. Night-time lows in the mid 30s
interior to lower to mid 40s coast. /10

MARINE...Strong northwest winds gradually subside today and tonight
as a high pressure ridge builds into the marine area from the west.
Gale Warning continues for the Gulf marine zones through 9 AM this
morning, with Small Craft Advisories thereafter through Monday and
Monday night for some marine zones. A light to moderate onshore flow
develops Tuesday and continues through late Wednesday as a weak cold
front approaches from the west. This front will move across the
marine area Wednesday evening with a strong offshore flow developing
and continuing through Thursday morning, then subsiding later in the
week as high pressure begins to rebuild from the west through Friday
night. 12/DS


AL...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for FLZ201>206.

MS...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ670-675.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>635.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ650-655.



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