Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 271043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
443 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...General surface high pressure
ridging in from the east expected today and tonight, resulting in
southeasterly low level flow advecting increased Gulf moisture
into the region with PWATS increasing to around 1.4 inches by late
this afternoon. Shortwave energy in the southwesterly flow aloft,
currently noted in Water Vapor Imagery over eastern Texas is
progged to move east across our area this afternoon and early
evening, providing enough lift to result in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon continuing into the early
evening hours, before becoming less numerous overnight. Low level
850 mb jet is not expected to be particularly strong today,
generally on the order of about 25 knots over our area. Thus,
severe wind threat with the storms today is minimal, although a
few storms could produce gusty conditions. However, mid level
lapse rates are rather steep. 27/00Z soundings indicated 700-500mb
lapse rates of around 6 C/KM and high-res model data indicate
further steepening this afternoon, up to around 7 C/KM. This
combined with fact that WBZ heights are forecasted to be below
10,000 feet indicate possibility of large hail with stronger
storms. This will be especially true over western half of our
forecast area, generally west of a Mobile, Evergreen, Camden line.
As such, SPC has outlooked that area with a marginal risk of
severe weather today (primarily for this afternoon and early
evening). Daytime highs today ranging from near 70 over northern
portions of forecast area to mid 70s over southern areas just
inland from the coast. Lows tonight ranging from around 60 over
northern counties to mid 60s at the coast. 12/DS

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...Will start the
short term with a long wave high level trof positioned over the
Rockies while a flat mid level ridge is situated from the Bahamas
to the southwest Gulf. A well established high level southwest
flow exists between these two pressure systems. Tuesday appears we
will see a break in the weather activity with the best dynamics
for organized storms becoming more focused from the Tennessee
River Valley to across northern/eastern Texas. Moving forward in
time, the southwest US upper trof ejects eastward out of the
Plains Tuesday night then across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley/Mid-
South region on Wednesday. Wind profiles begin to increase on
Wednesday in response to a cold front advancing southeast over
the lower Mississippi River Delta. Deep layer ascent also operates
on a narrow zone of deep layer moisture ahead of the front for
scattered storms to develop within a destabilizing environment
thru the day Wednesday. The potential exists for a slight risk of
severe storms Wednesday generally along and north of US Highway 84
where the better dynamics are positioned. A marginal risk
elsewhere. Main threat in severe storms will be damaging winds and
a possible tornado where the greatest instability sets up.

Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures forecast Tuesday and
Wednesday. Highs possibly approaching the lower half of the 80s on
Tuesday for much of the area north of I-10 with southerly flow
off the Gulf keeping beach temperatures more modified in the mid
70s. Similar highs for Wednesday. Tuesday night very mild with
lows in the mid 60s along with the potential of patchy late night
fog development. Frontal passage Wednesday night brings coolest
lows in the mid 40s southeastward across the interior northwest.

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Front sweeps southeast of
the central Gulf coast on Thursday. High pressure then builds east
over the southern states and brings rain-free conditions to close
out the week. Temperatures cooler with daytime highs Thursday
thru Saturday in the mid 60s. Overnight lows in the upper 30s/lower
40s interior to mid to upper 40s beach areas. By Sunday, with
high pressure having moved to the east, a moderation in temperatures
set up along with the return of a chance of showers. /10


.MARINE...Light to moderate onshore flow continues through Wednesday
as high pressure ridge continues over eastern Gulf and cold front
gradually approaches marine area from the west. A chance for showers
and isolated thunderstorms today, then a brief break on Tuesday with
chances increasing again Wednesday and Wednesday evening as the
front approaches and then moves east across the coastal waters. The
frontal passage will bring a strengthening offshore wind flow
Wednesday night through Thursday, gradually diminishing through late
Friday. 12/DS


Mobile      74  63  79  66 /  40  20  10  10
Pensacola   74  65  77  67 /  40  20  10  10
Destin      73  66  76  67 /  30  20  10  10
Evergreen   75  61  83  64 /  60  20  10  10
Waynesboro  73  63  81  65 /  70  20  10  10
Camden      72  60  82  64 /  60  20  10  10
Crestview   75  62  82  63 /  40  20  10  10




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