Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 051018
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
518 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE BASE OF THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MS AND AL. A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS TOWARD WESTERN AL IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME
OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON AND CLARKE COUNTIES. SKIES ARE OTHERWISE
OVERCAST OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADING OVERHEAD. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THE
COAST...BUT VISIBILITY HAS REMAINED ABOVE 2 MILES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALSO SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CWFA ON THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO
RANGE FROM 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH AROUND 12Z...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...WE HAVE OPTED TO
RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER THE INITIAL
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION AND SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA SHOWS AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL. FOR AFTERNOON
POPS...WILL GO WITH LIKELY COVERAGE OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS...WITH 40-50 PERCENT COVERAGE INDICATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR NOW. MAXIMUM MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ARE
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
TODAY. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER NUMBERS GIVEN TRENDS
OF LATE...BUT ALSO CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE BETTER
COVERAGE TRENDED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH LESS INFLUENCE
FROM THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION
...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WITH EACH DAY...IN
COMPARISON TO TODAY. THAT BEING SAID...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ON
MONDAY.

RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO HIT 90
ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM-UP REALLY BEGINS ON TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES
LIKELY APPROACHING 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND HOVER
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IN COMPARISON TO THE ACTIVE PAST FEW DAYS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GRIPPED THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEK...THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SINCE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND RAIN
CHANCES CLOSER TO CLIMO. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH UPPER 90S NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRESENCE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL RE-INTRODUCE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 INTO THE FORECAST
BY MID WEEK...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
BEACHES EACH NIGHT...WITH THE MUGGINESS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...05.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY
AVIATION IMPACTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE PATCHY MVFR TO IFR NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST GENERALLY PRIOR TO 05.13Z AND THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. REDUCED
CIGS AND VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
MARINE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN INCREASED WIND SHIFTS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA TODAY. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER TODAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  89  72  92 /  80  20  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   87  75  89  75  90 /  80  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      84  76  88  77  89 /  80  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   86  69  89  70  93 /  80  30  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  86  69  90  72  94 /  80  30  30  10  20
CAMDEN      85  69  88  71  92 /  80  40  30  20  20
CRESTVIEW   88  70  90  70  93 /  80  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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