Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 240836
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
336 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS NOW MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE.
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE ABSENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION EQUATION. LATER TODAY HOWEVER...WE DO PICK UP ON SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. FOR THAT REASON...I WILL INCLUDE
LOW POPS FOR THE PLATEAU AREA AND SOUTHEAST HALF OF MIDDLE TN.

OTW...DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN TODAY AND IT WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND TEMPS WILL WARM. LOWER 90S FOR
HIGHS WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT OUR WAY AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STILL
LOOKING AT SOME APPRECIABLE CAPE VALUES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

BEHIND THE FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND
12-14C FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  63  88  67 /  20   0   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    82  60  89  65 /  10   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     80  58  82  61 /  30  10   0  05
COLUMBIA       85  63  89  67 /  20  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   87  62  89  65 /  30  10   0  05
WAVERLY        83  61  89  66 /  10   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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