Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 291120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THE PROMISED UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST, SO WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH, LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND A FEW STORMS) DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY SETTING UP IN TODAY`S
ENVIRONMENT, BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, SO COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING AT LEAST UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID STATE MAY SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM TS
ERIKA REMNANTS, SO WILL INCLUDE LOW POP`S TOWARD THE END OF THE
7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW
STARKLY DIFFERENCE SOLUTIONS WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM, WITH THE
GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT WEEKEND, AND
THE ECMWF KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE ACROSS MIDDLE TN
WILL MITIGATE ANY PREVAILING LINES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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