Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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943
FXUS64 KOHX 220842
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
342 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Mosaic radar and surface observations shows the surface front
roughly from Dane County...WI...to Quincy...IL...to Fort
Smith...AR...to Terrell...TX. There is a fair amount of convection
on the southern part...but this is expected to weaken as it moves
east into more stable air after 12Z. By 12Z the HRRR...SREF...and
RAP have precip on the western edge of our CWA but it takes until
21Z to moisten up. Even at 21Z the short range high resolution
models still keep the precipitation west of I-65. The models try
to pull the precip quickly out of the area on Monday so did make
some adjustments to timing. Models are hinting at some wrap
around moisture so did not remove everything and left chance pops
for the eastern third Monday night.

QPF amounts seem to have come done a bit. Have a storm total QPF
of 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Instability has really weakened too. Since I
added heavy rainfall to the HWO last night I really hate to take
it out especially since WPC has a slight around our area. There
could still be some training storms and some elevated rumbles of
thunder tonight. Don/t see any instability tomorrow so have
removed all mention of thunder for Monday and Monday night.

Still looks cooler after this system with low temperatures
Wednesday morning 35 to 40 and high temperatures Wednesday in the
50s. Cloud cover Tuesday night should be enough to prevent frost
concerns. A gradual warmup through the remainder of the work
week.


The models are still having timing differences with the front next
weekend so really didn/t make many changes other than to remove
thunder. See zero instability at this time. Still looking like the
coldest air of the season for the following week. There could be
frost/freeze concerns.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Winds are increasing this evening as the surface
pressure gradient strengthens ahead of tomorrow night`s cold
front. Higher wind speeds and warm advection should hold off
radiation fog overnight, so VFR conditions will last through most
of the day tomorrow. Look for ceilings to deteriorate from west
to east beginning in the late afternoon as abundant low-level
moisture develops ahead of the front. Showers will then spread
across the mid state mainly after 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      79  62  67  48  62 /  20  90  80  20  10
Clarksville    78  56  64  46  60 /  50  90  60  20  10
Crossville     74  62  65  44  57 /   0  80  90  30  20
Columbia       79  60  65  45  62 /  30  90  70  20  10
Lawrenceburg   78  60  65  46  62 /  20  90  80  20  10
Waverly        76  56  64  46  59 /  60  90  50  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......12
AVIATION........08



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