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000
FXUS64 KOHX 221126
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
626 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Tropical Storm Cindy was nearing the northwest Gulf coast early
this morning, spreading rainbands as far north as Middle
Tennessee. AT 330 am, a band of patchy mostly light rain covered
most areas south of a Waverly-to Columbia-to Lewisburg line, and
was continuing to spread to the north.

Looks like a rainy day developing for the Mid-State this morning.
However, by mid to late afternoon, believe the main band of
showers and thunderstorms will have lifted mainly into northern
and eastern areas, while activity becomes more scattered
elsewhere. Total QPF today is expected to range from around a half
inch over the east, to between one half and one inch elsewhere.

Still looks like a pause in the action tonight, before the
heaviest rains move in on Friday and Friday evening. QPF amounts
tonight are expected to be less than a quarter inch most areas.

Believe our soils will be able to absorb the rainfall today and
tonight pretty well, with mainly just some localized ponding
issues expected. However, the heavier rains on Friday and Friday
night could produce some localized flash flood problems for some
areas--especially across the north, where total QPF from 12z
today through 12z Saturday is expected to average between 3 and 4
inches. We will definitely have to consider the possible issuance
of a Flash Flood Watch later today, for the Friday rains. However,
believe it will be good for day shift to be able to look at some
new data before making any decisions on a possible watch.

SPC continues to keep us in a marginal risk for severe storms
today and a slight chance for severe storms for much of our area
on Friday and Friday evening as the remnants from Cindy move
across the area. Still looks like low level jet strengthens to
between 30 and 40 kts by late today across our area, and reaches
40 to 50 kts on Friday, as Cindy`s circulations moves through.
As a result, will continue to mention the possibility for
damaging straight line winds with some of the thunderstorms over
the next few days. Also, will keep mentioning the general caveat
that "tropical systems are known to also produce weak, short-
lived tornadoes."

Models continue to trend toward a rather rapidly progressive
system, as the remnants of Cindy roll across our area Friday
afternoon and evening--and by late Friday night, rain will be
rapidly tapering off from the west. By early Saturday morning,
expect only some isolated showers possible over the extreme east.

.LONG TERM...

After our late week soggy conditions, the weekend and early next
week offers us a nice drying out period as high pressure builds in
across the area. In addition, as an upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S., we`re allowed to enjoy a reprieve from the hot
weather, with daytime highs only in the upper 70s to lower 80s
most areas during the Saturday through Tuesday period. Things
start to warm up again by next Wednesday, but even then we`re only
looking at our highest temperatures topping out in the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Surface pressure gradient is tightening up this
morning as Tropical Storm Cindy has just made landfall along the
Gulf Coast. Light showers have been inching northward across
Middle Tennessee most of the night, and will likely affect all
terminals by 14Z. Expect ceilings to drop to at least MVFR once
the rain settles in and the low levels become saturated. HRRR
shows the activity scattering out during the afternoon, and the
models suggest the evening & overnight period will be even drier
with a few hours of VFR ceilings, although expect low clouds to
re-develop overnight despite the paucity of convection.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08