462
FXUS64 KOHX 141745
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the
  week.

- Although the severe weather risk is low, heavy rainfall, gusty
  winds, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Warming trend will take place this week as many locations will
  near or surpass 100F for heat indicies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Summertime continues. Temperatures are in the 80s at this hour with
a few showers starting to show up. Storm coverage will increase
as we move into the afternoon hours. There is a remnant MCV
sitting in eastern Arkansas that will drift eastward. This could
fire up some of the activity for the afternoon. In regards to
severe storms, the threat will remain low but some gusty winds
will be possible with the strongest cells. PWAT values remain
1.8-2" which will aid in some heavy rain. Outside of localized
street flooding, the flash flood threat is low. Areas of patchy
fog will develop again overnight. Tuesday looks pretty similar to
today with diurnal showers and storms. Highs for today and
tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A couple locations
may creep into the mid 90s on Tuesday depending on the how
widespread storms are. If temperatures are able to get into the
mid 90s on Tuesday, heat index values may exceed 105 degrees. I
will not do a Heat Advisory because my confidence is not high
enough of widespread values over 105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The pattern is expected to remain pretty stagnant through the long
term forecast. There is a low that will work eastward across the
northern gulf, but that should stay far enough west of Middle
Tennessee before it makes the northern turn inland to really
affect our storm coverage. Expect the diurnally driven convection
to continue with highs and lows around average. We`ll have to keep
an eye on afternoon heat index values as they may get into the
105-110 range especially Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Current observations across Middle TN airfields are VFR with light
S to SW winds at ~5 kts. SCT cumulus with developing SHRA and TSRA
is already occuring, and I`ve handled CKV/MQY with VCSH for now.
Activity has dropped off somewhat near BNA, but will be watching
activity moving in from the southwest over the coming hours.
Otherwise, maintained PROB30s for TSRA during the late afternoon
at all terminals minus CKV (transitioned to TEMPO), but will
update others once RADAR trends can be established. Overnight
conditions will be calm, but expect FG development at SRB/CSV once
again. Tomorrow will be similar to today with another afternoon
period of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  40
Clarksville    73  91  74  93 /  30  50  20  40
Crossville     68  89  69  88 /  10  40  20  60
Columbia       72  93  73  94 /  20  30  20  40
Cookeville     70  90  72  89 /  20  40  20  50
Jamestown      68  89  70  88 /  10  50  20  60
Lawrenceburg   71  92  72  93 /  10  30  10  50
Murfreesboro   72  94  74  95 /  20  30  20  50
Waverly        72  91  72  92 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Sizemore