National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KOHX 120154
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
754 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. PARTIAL HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS INDICATED ALONG THE FRONT AND ALSO A NARROW BAND
OVER KY. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL REACH FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS OF TN BY 12Z. SO FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OF
5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE. 12Z TEMP GRAPHICAL PROGS ARE VERY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 12/24Z. DRY SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE W TO
E ACROSS MID STATE AND SHOULD EXIT AREA SOMETIME AFTER 12/06Z. THIS WILL
USHER IN AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS TO MID STATE THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL OF
ANY FREEZING FOG FORMATION. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN 12/06Z-
12/12Z MAY BRING SOME SCT/BKN CI...BUT NOTHING ELSE. DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH SFC BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE THRU 12/24Z.
LIGHT NWLY OR N SFC WINDS EXPECTED ALSO THRU 12/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 316 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. A DRY COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND
LOWER DEW POINTS. BY SUNRISE THURSDAY, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE THIS MORNING, OR MAYBE EVEN A FEW DEGS
COLDER.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S,
AS OUR COLD AIR PIPELINE INTO WESTERN CANADA REMAINS OPEN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THURSDAY EVENING, AND PUTS US IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN
MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SKIES GO FROM
MOSTLY SUNNY AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, TO CLOUDY BY SUNSET.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINTRY MIX COULD DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, AS OUR ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN
AND SURFACE DEW POINTS, PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, HOVER
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS FROM MID
CLOUDS AND MOISTENS LOWER ENVIRONMENT, WET-BULBING COULD EASILY
PRODUCE A DEEP ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES, WITH
SURFACE TEMPS FALLING FROM THE LOWER 40S INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS
MAY ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MANAGE TO WARM UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY SEEING
A CHANGE-OVER TO ALL RAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE HAD LAST WEEK, WHEN TEMPERATURES FELL SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, RESULTING IN
SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOWFALL AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (ESPECIALLY ON
GRASSY AREAS).

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY, WITH A LITTLE BIT OF MIX PRECIP
STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, AS COLDER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO THE MID STATE.

LONG TERM...DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK, MODELS SEEM TO BE WANTING TO POISE ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA--WHICH COULD INVADE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
(INCLUDING MIDDLE TENNESSEE) SOMETIME CHRISTMAS WEEK. OF COURSE,
THAT`S A LONG WAY OFF, AND THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE. HOWEVER,
CONSIDERING OUR CURRENT LONG WAVE PATTERNS, WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21