Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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790
FXUS64 KOHX 092032
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
232 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Cold temperatures continue to hold on around the region with high
pressure moving in behind yesterday`s cold front. Temperatures
this afternoon are struggling to get above freezing, and with
continuing clear skies overnight, it looks like most of the mid
state will see teens for lows by Saturday morning. Surface
dewpoints are already in the mid teens across the area, and light
winds overnight will not help the temperatures stay up. Dry
conditions will continue through Saturday although cloud cover
looks to creep in from the north during the afternoon and evening
ahead of the next trough arriving on Sunday.

Chances for rain will move in mainly during the afternoon on
Sunday, with some early chances in the far northwest zones Sunday
morning. In addition to the rain chances, WAA will bring temps up
to the low 50s before the rain arrives. Models are in pretty good
agreement on placement of the QPF over the mid state, however the
upper level solutions are still slightly off. Still, it looks like
the most precip will fall during the late evening on Sunday
through Monday morning. In addition, the approaching
trough looks to have some strong southerly winds ahead of the
front Sunday afternoon into Monday morning thanks to a strong
pressure gradient at the surface. Currently have some locations
seeing 10-20 mph winds and gusts to around 25 mph, especially
during late Sunday evening and very early Monday morning. The
upper level trough will slide east and precip chances will come to
an end Monday afternoon, and this cold front will not bring any
Arctic air to the region so warmer temps will stick around for a
little bit.

Starting on Tuesday models begin to diverge a bit each day. It
does look like a stationary boundary will set up to our north,
which again will keep temps up through mid week. The southerly
flow in the low levels will also bring some moisture, and chances
for precip are in the forecast for the duration of next week up
until Thursday. When there is better model agreement hopefully
over the next few runs, dry periods will likely make their way
into the forecast. With an upper level zonal pattern, however, any
little shortwave disturbance is kicking off some precip. Therefore
not jumping onto any one solution just yet, and largely went with
a consensus blend for the long term through Thursday.

The GFS brings in very cold air and precip early Thursday morning
with a broad upper trough and associated cold front. The ECMWF is
very dry but also brings in cold air about 12 hours later. As
mentioned earlier, went with more of a consensus blend for now
until better model agreement arises. Both models agree however
that cold air will return Thursday, and keep highs around the low
to mid 30s Thursday, mid 30s to around 40 Friday, and lows mainly
in the 20s Wednesday night through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions expected thru 10/18Z. Dry nwly flow aloft along
with building sfc ridging influences will provide for VFR
conditions thru 10/18Z. Some mainly diurnal based sct cu will also
be possible along with patches of bkn ci aloft. Per movement of
sfc ridging influences, sfc winds will shift from the NW-N around
5 kts to NE-SE around 5kts mainly after 10/12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      19  41  28  53  48 /   0   0   0  20  90
Clarksville    17  38  28  49  44 /   0   0  10  50  90
Crossville     16  38  26  47  42 /   0   0   0  10  90
Columbia       18  41  28  52  48 /   0   0   0  20  90
Lawrenceburg   19  42  28  52  48 /   0   0   0  10  90
Waverly        19  39  29  50  46 /   0   0   0  40  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........31



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