Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 261949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
149 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...A SHARP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO IDAHO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
VALUES IN THE SNAKE PLAIN...PROBABLY WITHIN 2 DEGREES. THE RECORD
FOR THE POCATELLO REGIONAL AIRPORT FOR FRIDAY IS 73F SET IN 1986
AND FOR IDAHO FALLS AIRPORT 70F ALSO SET IN 1986. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND PUSH WINDS IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM NEAR 9000 FT
ELEVATION FRIDAY NIGHT TO ROUGHLY 8500 FT ELEVATION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN SOMEWHAT OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH NORTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA SO THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD CROSS THE AREA QUICKLY. MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS...SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS LESS THAN ONE
INCH...AND ABOUT AN 8 TO 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP SATURDAY.
LARGELY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH WILL BE WATCHING A MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT BECOMES ABSORBED IN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A
TEMPORARY SPLIT IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS...TRACKING IT TOWARDS
ARIZONA. THE GFS STRETCHES SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
FEATURE ACROSS GREAT SALT LAKE ON SUNDAY. RS

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PAC TROUGH.
THE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND ATTENDING PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS
SRN IDAHO TUESDAY EXITING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING WITH DRYING THEREAFTER. A BRIEF RESPITE IS ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A BROAD TRAILING TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKEIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NRN MOUNTAINS BORDERING WITH MONTANA AND WYOMING WHILE FAIRLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND SEE NO
REASON TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS GUIDANCE. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







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