Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 050906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...AS ONE STORM DROPS OUT OF CANADA EAST OF
THE DIVIDE AND HELPS PULL ANOTHER WAVE TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE
STATE. WE ARE ALREADY SEE THAT WITH CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SOUTH
TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. SHOWERS WILL REALLY DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE
INCLUDED MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
THERE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THEM.
WHERE IT ENDS UP MORE UNSTABLE TODAY...WE WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS
WILL NOT BE SEVERE. WE WILL SEE A FRONT PUSH OVER THE DIVIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO...BUT STALL OUT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD ACT AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT...EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. WE SHOULD SEE
WINDS PICK UP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR A WHILE INTO THIS
EVENING DUE TO THAT FRONT. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DRIFTS
OVER IDAHO A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW. THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LOT COOLER THANKS IN
PART TO COOLER AIR ARRIVING BUT MAINLY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
PRETTY ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY.
COVERAGE WILL FLUCTUATE DEPENDING ON TIMING A COUPLE OF WAVES
DROPPING FROM THE NORTH CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE...AND EVENTUALLY THE
BIG LOW OUT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN
THAT SYSTEM IS KICKED OUR WAY BY THE NEXT STORM MOVING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE WEST. THE GFS HAS IT ALREADY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND FARTHER SOUTH. THE ECMWF TAKES
A MORE WESTERLY PATH ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO AND MONTANA AND IS
SLOWER AS WELL. BASED ON THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...WE JUST MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE TO THE FORECAST. BESIDES THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP US FROM GETTING TOO
HOT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
AFFECT SOME TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPS...GUSTY WINDS...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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