Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 231951
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
151 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Line of showers continues shifting north ahead of
shortwave crossing into East Idaho. Stronger convection has fired
in the clearing behind the showers along the southern highlands.
Precipitable waters approaching 1" per this mornings upstream SLC
sounding, so locally heavy rain possible with these storms along
with gusty winds. Activity should decrease overnight though
kept isolated thunderstorms in place. Have also kept areas of
smoke across central mountains, see air quality discussion below.
Main shortwave lifts through PacNW states across Idaho panhandle
during the day tomorrow, with another day of convection across the
region. Focus should be in northern regions with proximity to
shortwave dynamics, and tail of precipitation lingering into
Thursday night. Depending on model solution, could see showers
continuing overnight but redevelopment chances trending higher for
Friday. Upper ridge rebuilds beginning Saturday with strengthening
high center over Great Basin. Depending on precip effects on area
wildfires, would expect increased impacts due to smoke under the
influence of the high the weekend into early next week. Moisture
wraps around the low, but models continue to trend potential
convective development later in the week. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms are accompanying
the short wave energy lifting out of the Great Basin today. Timing
of onset and duration a bit uncertain as mesoscale models have
different nuances in their respective solutions. Generally should
see later onsets further north. Gradual clearing will occur
overnight to early morning with winds increasing late morning or
early tomorrow afternoon.  Also including low VFR
visibility for KSUN due to smoke for the overnight hours. Hinsberger


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Concerns today and tonight will be thunderstorm
coverage. Some clearing in our southern zones will likely promote
some vigorous convection this afternoon, though coverage should
still be isolated to widely scattered through this evening. There is
some threat of continued overnight convection, but this again should
be isolated. As the bulk of moisture shifts to the east tomorrow, we
will see winds increase with gusts 25 to 30 mph in the Central
Mountains and Arco Desert area, but min humidity tomorrow near 20
percent, and thus will not carry any headlines. Isolated storms will
be possible again Friday as we see a strong upper ridge build in
over the West. We should be in for a period of hot and dry
conditions beyond Friday.  Hinsberger


&&


.AIR QUALITY...Wildfire smoke continues to impact portions of the
central mountains with degraded air quality. Have kept smoke
mention into Thursday night, but precipitation may have some
positive impact over the next couple days. Otherwise, expect high
pressure building over the weekend to have resurgent inversion
impacts and worsening air quality where smoke persists. DMH

&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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