Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 010855
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
255 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER WILL BE EXTREMELY ACTIVE IN
SOUTHEAST IDAHO. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING DOWN TO
SURFACE AS LARGE UPPER TROF MOVES ONTO PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TODAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AFTER 10 AM THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION TODAY WITH
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS STILL IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY DROP
FROM OVER 9 THOUSAND FEET THIS MORNING TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON ON SUNDAY WITH UP TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AND ISSUED ONE FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
HIGHLANDS AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 4
TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS MAY REACH VALLEY
FLOORS BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY END SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BUT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEST AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET. MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE RIDGE WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD AND MAY BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 60S. GFS ENSEMBLES THOUGH PAINT A FLATTER
RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC
NW. ECMWF CURRENTLY IS THE OUTLIER FOR FRIDAY AS IT BRINGS A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE
DRY ZONAL FLOW. GEM MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF FOR FRIDAY...BUT A
BIT SLOWER. NO CLEAR SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO EXTENDED PERIODS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NV. THIS WILL MEAN AN
ENHANCEMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO NEAR THE SURFACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT SPEEDS NOT THAT STRONG JUST YET. MODELS BRING
PRECIP TO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. KPIH AND KIDA MAY STAY DRY
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
IN THE LATE EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
LOWERING CEILINGS AROUND 06Z. TIMING FOR BELOW VFR CONDITIONS AT
KSUN COMES AROUND 00Z.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ017-021>025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR THE IDZ032.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY IDZ018.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031.

&&

$$







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