Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 272016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
216 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Scattered showers over the Snake Plain and Eastern
Highlands this afternoon with the heavier showers in a band near
Pocatello and moving south towards Downey through early evening.
Lightning was detected just north of American Falls Reservoir, but
it was very brief. Some light showers of rain and snow expected
this evening over the Caribou Highlands, with any accumulation
less than one inch. Southeast Idaho remains in northwesterly flow
Friday and Saturday with little embedded showers favoring the
northern mountains and Eastern Highlands, and a slight chance
along the east side of the Snake Plain. Snow level remains close
to the valley floors during the overnight hours, and rising a few
hundred feet during the day. Accumulation of 1 to 3 inches
possible over the Highlands. The winds advisory for the Lower
Snake Plain was cancelled as winds are remaining below advisory
level. Wind advisory remains in effect for the Eastern Magic
Valley and South Central Highlands until 8 pm this evening. RS

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday night. Models are showing
an amplifying upper ridge off the WA/OR coast next week, leaving
southeast Idaho in a generally drier northwesterly flow. However,
there are a couple impulses indicated by GFS/ECMWF that make it into
the area in the extended periods: one pushes through on Sunday
night/Monday morning, and the second may impact the region as early
as Thursday night. ECMWF paints the first trough a bit deeper as it
slides to our east. Given the northwesterly flow, the favored precip
areas will be along the Eastern Highlands due to the upslope
component. Snow levels dictate a wintry mix above 6000 ft with rain
in the valleys. The good news is that we are expecting a warm-up
through the week with highs in the 60s, which may peak in the 70s by
the end of next week. The second upper trough is depicted by the
ECMWF with an earlier arrival time than the GFS, with a timing
difference of around 12 hours. Snow levels should be fairly high,
and expect precip to be predominantly rain with the second system.


.AVIATION...Showers will continue this afternoon and evening with
upper low situated in Northern Idaho around mid-day. Convergence
zone continues to trigger heavier showers around the INL complex.
Stability is marginal so thunder cannot be ruled out, and IDA/PIH
may see an isolated lightning strike in the vicinity, but have low
confidence on extent of convective development this afternoon. PIH
and DIJ will see IFR/MVFR ceilings and/or visibility this afternoon
with PIH remaining IFR through around 2am. Winds will slowly taper
off this evening. Hinsberger


Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ017-022.


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