Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 290019
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
519 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...SNOW HAS ABATED AND FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
HAVE THEREFORE DISCONTINUED THE WINTER HEADLINES OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS DUG
WELL INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALONG
IDAHO/WYOMING BORDER HELPING TO INDUCE BAND OF WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THIRD SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH PANHANDLE PRODUCING MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. FEEL CONFIDENT IN DROPPING ALL
HEADLINES WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED...MAINTAINING WARNING FOR 23/25 AND
ADVISORY FOR 24. WARNING MAY BE TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT SINCE
BAND IS WEAKENING AND STRONG WINDS/LARGE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE SNOW BAND WILL BE DONE BY 00Z AND NEXT
SHIFT CAN CANCEL EARLY. SHOWERS FROM PANHANDLE FEATURE STILL
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS REMAINDER OF REGION BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN VERY LIGHT. HRRR/RAP STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME VERSION
OF A CONVERGENCE EVENT BUT LOSS OF 700MB FLOW MAKES THIS HARDER TO
DEFINE. FEEL THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
ARCTIC PUSH DROPPING INTO A NEARLY SATURATED AIR MASS. HAVE
WEAKENED THE QPF/SNOW FCST INTO TONIGHT BUT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS. COLD AIR
MASS SETTING UP OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT. TEMPS START TO
DROP SHARPLY PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OVER FRESH SNOW.
WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT TONIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT A WINDCHILL
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THRU
THE DAY MONDAY WITH SHARP REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE PACNW. COULD CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT AGAIN
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OR AMOUNTS. GIVEN WEAK CONVECTIVE
NATURE IN ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS...KEPT AMOUNTS LOW.
COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION OVER THE
DIVIDE...AND SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS WELL. COMBINATION WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. UPPER LOW SAGS TOWARD VEGAS LEAVING VERY COLD NORTHEAST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.
TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH MOST PLACES SEEING SUBZERO LOWS
HEADING INTO MID WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS SUCH AS STANLEY/ISLAND PARK/COPPER BASIN
SEE SUBZERO HIGHS BY MID WEEK. HAVE PUSHED ALL TEMPS DOWN AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER. DMH

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.  EUROPEAN STAYS COMPLETELY DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE JUST TO
WEST WHILE GFS BRINGS IN PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.   FOR NOW KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW IN GRIDS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND DID NOT BUY OFF ON THE COMPLETELY DRY EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WITH SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LIKELY IN INVERSION
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GK

AVIATION...SNOW HAS ENDED AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT
SOME MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT IDA AND PIH AND RETURN TO
BYI OVERNIGHT.  COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AT THOSE
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND CANADIAN
FRONT MOVING SOUTH.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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