Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE ERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
LIGHT BANDED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE
NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SCT SHRASN WILL TEMPORARILY WIND DOWN AFTER ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MON EVENING. IT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE MON EVENING
FOR KCOS AND KPUB. THE CENTRAL MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY
SN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SN AND BLSN OVER THE DVD ESPECIALLY
N OF KMYP. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



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