Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 252238
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

...Increasing fire danger over the southeast mountains and plains on
Monday...

Only some lingering flurries and patchy blowing snow over the higher
peaks of the Central Mountains at mid-afternoon, and expect these to
end before sunset and will keep evening forecast precip free at all
locations. Expect a fairly cold night across southern Colorado as
winds decouple and skies remain clear, and a few high mountain
valleys could fall to around 0f by early Monday morning. Mid/upper
level flow then bends back to the southwest on Mon as trough digs
south along the Pacific Coast, leading to warmer and continued windy
conditions across most of the region by afternoon. With air mass
remaining extremely dry, Red Flag conditions look likely over the
eastern mountains and southeast plains, although weak pressure
gradient under surface low spinning up between Pueblo and La Junta
will likely keep winds lighter through Pueblo/El Paso/ern Fremont
counties, limiting near critical conditions to just a couple hours
late in the afternoon as stronger winds aloft finally mix down. Will
upgrade current Fire Weather Watch to a warning, keeping the same
areal configuration in place. Max temps will reach their warmest
levels in nearly a week at most locations, as readings on the plains
and across most interior valleys jump into the 50s and 60s, while
the mountains warm into the 30/40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

Monday night and Tuesday...Warm, dry southwest flow aloft across the
Four Corners region ahead of the next incoming upper level low
pressure system should produce one more warm day across the plains
on Tue. A cold front is forecast to drop south across the Palmer
Divide on Tue, and how far south it drives will determine realized
max temps that day. Currently, it looks like ti will make a push
through much of the plains save for the southern foothills and Raton
Mesa, so decided to hoist a Fire Weather Watch for those areas Tue
aftn. Otherwise, look for highs in the 40s to around 50F for the
high valleys, and 50s to mid 60s for the plains with temps cooling
from north to south through the aftn.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Models still agree on moving this
upper system quickly across the region, once it gets here. This will
bring some light accumulations to the mts Tue night through Wed, and
perhaps a few showers along the I-25 corridor Wed aftn. Expect high
temps Wed to be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler with increased cloud
cover, with readings in the 40s for the high valleys, and mid 40s to
lower 50s for the plains.

Thursday through Sunday...For the second day, models are showing a
longwave trough over the Pacific and the West Coast staying position
through Sat, then finally weakening and moving across the Great
Basin and the Rockies sometime on Sun. Multiple pieces of energy
crossing the Great Basin will produce a nearly constant possibility
for isolated snow showers over the central mts, while the plains
remain breezy, dry and warm. Look for maximum temps in the mid 40s
to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the
plains on Thu, warming into the upper 50s to upper 60s for Fri
through Sun. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 338 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR conditions at all taf sites tonight and Monday, with W-NW winds
gradually diminishing this evening. S-SW winds will develop Tue
afternoon at the terminals, with some gusts to around 20 kts at KPUB
and KCOS, and 20-25 kts at KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for COZ225-229-
230-233>237.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for COZ229-230-233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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