Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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477
FXUS65 KPUB 291008
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...STRONG SPRING STORM MOVES THROUGH COLORADO TODAY...

UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND NOSING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AS OF 09Z. HAVE SEEN INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN AND SNOW LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA CURRENTLY IN A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP...AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIP
NOW FORMING OVER ERN NM. SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN A
LITTLE LIGHTER AND PATCHIER THAN EXPECTED...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF 6-8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WETS/FREMONT COUNTY
ALREADY...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME HEAVIER REPORTS FROM THE WETS/SRN
SANGRES ONCE DATA BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING. EL
PASO/TELLER COUNTY HAVE IN GENERAL UNDERPERFORMED WITH SNOW...AS
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HAS BEEN VERY SLOW BELOW ABOUT 6500 FEET AS
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS LACKING.

FOR TODAY...SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER ERN NM WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH STEADY RAIN AND SNOW REDEVELOPING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY DRIFT DOWN
BELOW 6000 FEET FOR A TIME AROUND SUNRISE WITH ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...THEN PUSH BACK TO BETWEEN 6-7K FEET BY AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SET OF HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE
FOR NOW...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SRN EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY COME UP SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. ADVISORY
FOR PUEBLO AREA LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS WELL...THOUGH SRN PORTION
OF THE ZONE AROUND COLORADO CITY COULD SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT
CONTINUANCE AT THIS POINT. AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
SNOW THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD BE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS...AS EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE VALLEY MAY PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW IN A
FEW SPOTS. OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A FEW
SPOTS WHERE CHANGE-OVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO WRN KS...WITH NW
WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS DURING THE
EVENING AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER 00Z AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK...THOUGH WON`T DO ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS PLENTY OF OTHER WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...MORE SNOW AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN KS. NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
OVER MUCH OF SE CO...BUT ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND ERN
MTS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SAT NIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN FALL FROM AROUND 7K FEET SAT TO NR 6K FEET
BY SUN MORNING.

SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE UPSWING AS A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BROAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
LIFT AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE ERN PLAINS. KCOS AND
VICINITY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SNOW
LEVELS REMAINING 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS AND SRN SANGRES...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SRN FRONT RANGE AND PIKES PK REGION. WILL
LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLITES FOR THE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
SRN MTNS.

THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ON MONDAY...AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
WANE OVER THE AREA. A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY...BUT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING OVER THE MTS. THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. A STRONGER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WED AND THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA. ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND COULD
AFFECT OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHOULD SEE GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS COLORADO AND BAND
OF HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES NORTH OUT OF NM. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH
CIGS/VIS AFTER 00Z AS PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AT KALS...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP BACK TO
MVFR/BRIEFLY IFR AFTER SUNRISE AS PRECIP MOVES BACK IN...WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES UNTIL MIDDAY. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. AT KCOS...MAINLY
IFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF LIFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A SLUSHY
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE TERMINAL BEFORE RAIN MIXES
BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. AT KPUB...IFR WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY...IMPROVING THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS MORNING...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
HERE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>063-
072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ066-
068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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