Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231706
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED TSRA PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS KS AND NE AS OF 10Z. WATER
VAPOR LOOP INDICATES MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
COLORADO AS WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS. FOR
TODAY...UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE
AREA...LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES MOST LOCATIONS. COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA NEAR THE KS BORDER AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH PERHAPS A TSRA NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE
AS WELL AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UP...BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING AND ONLY
MODEST INSTABILITY DON`T THINK CONVECTION WILL BECOME DEEP ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES...AND WILL KEEP POPS ONLY
IN THE SILENT RANGE FOR NOW. WITH DRIER AIR MASS AND GENERAL W-NW
FLOW...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO PUSH UPWARD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES MOST LOCATIONS...AND A FEW MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER IN THE EVENING NEAR THE KS BORDER AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOL MIN TEMPS
ALONG WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...WARM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...

MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE N PACIFIC...AND ITS EVENTUAL
INTERACTION WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE BERING SEA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM...WHICH EVENTUALLY IS REINFORCED BY
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC LOW. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
STRONGER WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM...AND WOULD PROLONG THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH...AS IT PROGGED THIS SYSTEM
FIVE DAYS AGO WHEN THE ECMWF WAS STILL PROGGING A RIDGE OVER OUR
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BEYOND 144 HOURS THERE IS
MUCH SPAGHETTI IN THE ENSEMBLE GFS...AND NOT MUCH CAN BE SAID FOR
THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY OTHER THAN CLIMO AND A GENERAL RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS A REASONABLE
ASSUMPTION. THE END OF SEPTEMBER AND BEGINNING OF OCTOBER OFTEN
FEATURES A FAIRLY COLD SYSTEM WITH SNOW IN THE PASSES AND
BELOW...SO IT`S NOT REALLY GOING OUT ON A LIMB TO FAVOR COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER FOR THAT PERIOD. LOW POPS FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOOK ON TARGET FOR NEXT MONDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS MORE
LIKELY TO BE NR AVERAGE OR POSSIBLY BELOW AVERAGE.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...UNTIL 144 HOURS THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CUT OFF OVER NRN CA OR
NV...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD INTO NRN UT OR SRN ID BY SUNDAY. AS
OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE...THE WED THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY AND VERY WARM...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
HITTING 90 DEGREES FOR A FEW SPOTS OVER THE PLAINS THU AND/OR FRI.
POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA FRI-SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...DEEP SWRLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIP FOR THE SW MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. WARM WX SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE ERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...UNTIL COOLER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...PROBABLY BY MONDAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE MODELS TREND FOR THE WX NEXT MON
AND BEYOND. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE NORTH OF KCOS...BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO STAY
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AND NOT IMPACT THE AIRPORT. KPUB AND KALS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE STORMS TODAY.

SOME ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AROUND BACA COUNTY.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS AROUND THE BACA COUNTY AREA COULD
BE STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND SOME
HAIL POSSIBLE...GENERALLY PENNY SIZE OR LESS.

SPOTTY MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW


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