Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 192204
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

Currently across the region, high clouds were increasing from the
west in advance of the next weather system which will move into the
region later tonight. Radar on the western slope was beginning to
detect echoes over eastern Utah. Temps over the region at 2 am were
quite mild, with reading approaching 60 in the banana belt region
while farther east temps were in the mid 40s. In the larger valleys
temps were still quite cold given the snow cover, and readings were
in the teens.

Tonight...

Snow will likely move into the contdvd likely around 00Z tonight and
progress steadily east, reaching the southern mtns by midnight, and
moving out onto the plains towards sunrise. Snowfall in the mtns.
generally 2-4" of snow will fall along the contdvd tonight along
with the northern Sangres. Some light accums will occur in the San
Luis Valley. Light accums may also occur on the Plains mainly west
of I-25.

Tomorrow...

Latest (18Z) hi res guidance indicates that snow on the plains
tomorrow morning  will be light, but it likely to be a bit more
widespread, and an inch (or maybe two) of snow will be possible
(most areas will likely see the grass turn white, but that is about
it). The precip will likely be banded in nature as it moves across
the plains, with the band of precip extending NW-SE as it crosses
the region during the earlier part of the day tomorrow.

Temps tomorrow will be quite a bit cooler than today over the plains
(especially along the I-25 corridor), with max readings generally in
the 40s across the lower elevations. Mtn and valleys temps will be
similar to todays max temps. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

Chances for pcpn are expected to decrease Fri night as the one upper
trof moves off to the east.  There wl still be some snow going on
thru the night along the Continental Dvd, but accumulations should
be light.  The rest of the forecast area should see dry conditions
overnight.  On Sat a new upper disturbance moves over the state and
pcpn chances wl increase acrs the area.  Snow will pick up early Sat
and continue thru the day along the Continental Dvd, with a few
inches of accumulation.  Some light snow will also move over the San
Luis Valley and eastern mtns on Sat, but only light accumulations
are expected. The eastern plains are expected to be dry on Sat with
highs in the 40s.

On Sat night and Sun, an upper level ridge will be building ovr the
area and pcpn wl decrease.  There should still be some light snow in
areas along the Continental Dvd Sat night and early Sun, but
accumulations should be light.  Most of Sun afternoon conditions
should be dry, but late in the afternoon or early in the evening
moisture is expected to increase over wrn CO ahead of the next
weather system, and snow should start up again along the Continental
Dvd.  Sun night snow will increase along the Continental Dvd and wl
also spread acrs the high valleys and into the eastern mtns, but the
sern plains should remain dry. Several inches of accumulation should
be expected over the mtns along the Continental Dvd.

An upper level trof wl move from just off the west coast Sun
evening, into the Great Basin during the day Mon, with the trof then
moving acrs CO Mon night and early Tue, with the upr low center
expected to track ovr srn WY and the nern corner of CO. This wl be a
prolonged snow event for the mountain along the Continental Dvd,
with significant accumulations. The eastern mtns wl also see periods
of snow thru this time-frame with the potential for several inches
of accumulation, but not as significant as over the western mtns.
The eastern mtns may end up needing a winter wx advisory, but it
is too early at this time to issue anything. With the upr low
expected to track to the north of the area, the sern plains
shouldn`t see much in the way of pcpn Mon or Tue. Behind the upr
low on Tue some breezy northerly winds should be expected and
there could be a few light showers ovr the plains.

Northwest flow aloft and a broad upr trof is then expected to be ovr
the area Wed and into Thu. The weather should mostly be dry, but
some light showers wl probably be found mainly over the mtn areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 258 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

IFR/LIFR conditions will likely occur at all 3 airports tonight
and/or tomorrow morning. KALS has held onto a low cig so far today
and is likely not going to clear out until mid morning tomorrow.
Snow will be possible tonight with an inch or so possible.

KCOS and KPUB will likely see low cigs develop late tonight and last
into tomorrow late morning or early afternoon. Snow will be possible
but with ambient (relatively) warm temps and warm ground, the snow
should not accumulate significantly (maybe some slush on runways).

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST Saturday for COZ058-060.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM MST
Saturday for COZ073-075.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM MST
Saturday for COZ082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH



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