Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 270445
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Convection across West Central Texas has pretty much ended for the
evening, but latest models suggest more scattered storms are
possible for Wednesday afternoon. After the lack of convection
today across the area, not going to jump on this too much, but
will add a vcts in the forecast for the three southernmost
terminals (Junction, Brady, Sonora). Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered convection across much of Texas, but nothing close to
any of the terminals. A few storms may still be possible along the
I-10 corridor from Junction to Sonora, but they will be isolated
at best. If convection does approach a site, it should be short
lived, with most of the convection dissipating with the loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail. Models
are suggesting some brief low cloudiness across the I-10 area
around sunrise, but have overdone these possibilities all week
long. Will monitor but will not include a mention at this point.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Thunderstorms were located to north of West Central Texas this
afternoon, across southern and western Oklahoma in an axis of
moderate instability(MLCAPES of 1500 to 2500 J/KG) and to our south
in another area of instability and a weak upper level disturbance
moving slowly toward the west. Not much activity across our area due
to mainly a lack of buoyancy(MLCAPES mainly around 1000 J/KG). Will
keep the slight chance to chance Pops going tonight across the area.
Lows will be in the 70s.

For Wednesday, going with chance Pops across southern and eastern
areas. Not much in the way of upper level forcing, but afternoon
instability and some tropical moisture will help scattered storms to
develop. Highs will be mainly in the 90s.

21

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

The center of the upper ridge will move eastward into this
weekend, with increasing subsidence over the region. Keeping in a
mention of isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday night. While one or two storms are possible this weekend,
the potential is too remote to include in the forecast.

Temperatures will be on a gradual upswing, with highs in the mid
90s Friday rising in the upper 90s to 100 this weekend into
Tuesday. Lows will continue in the mid 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  95  75  95 /  20  20  20  20
San Angelo  73  94  74  95 /  20  30  20  20
Junction  73  93  73  95 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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