Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 171944
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
244 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Gradual warming trend...

Tonight we will see some radiational cooling, but it will not be
as strong to what we have seen the previous mornings. We will have
clear skies, but winds will be from the south to south- southeast
between 5-10 mph through the evening and into the morning hours.
This will allow some weak WAA and some mixing to occur this
evening. This will keep temperatures from dropping to quickly
after sunset. Areas that see lighter winds, and for locations in
the valley`s, these areas could see slightly colder temperatures.
Forecasting the lighter winds to be over the Northwest Hill
Country tonight. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to
low 50s across the Big Country and Concho valley, to the low to
mid 40s across the I-10 corridor.

The warming trend will continue Wednesday as the area remains
under the influence of an upper level ridge and southeasterly flow
at the surface. Expect temperatures to quickly warm into the low
to mid 80s under clear skies.

40

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

Little change in the forecast from the previous shift. Wednesday
night, southerly flow will continue as a shortwave trough
approaches from the west. The warming trend and moisture increase
will continue into Thursday. With the increase in moisture, and
the upper level shortwave over the area Thursday into Friday, we
will continue the slight chance for showers, or showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the area, mainly east of a Sweetwater
to Junction line. Expect quiet weather from Friday night into
Saturday, although temperatures will continue to warm.

Over the weekend, a much stronger upper level trough will move
through the northern plains, with an upper level closed low
developing on the southern end of the trough over eastern
TX/western LA. This low will begin developing as the trough moves
across west central Texas. With a cold front moving through the
area, and good upper level support with it, showers and
thunderstorms continue to look like a good possibility. The timing
of this system has been fairly consistent with the last few model
runs, so confidence is growing as far as rain chances, and with
respect to the timing of the rain during the evening hours north
of I-20 Saturday, and overnight hours for the rest of the area
Saturday night.

Expect the precipitation to quickly move out of the area Sunday
morning, with drier and cooler weather to start next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  81  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  48  83  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  45  81  53  80 /   0   0   0   5
Brownwood  46  82  54  81 /   0   0   0   5
Sweetwater  52  82  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       47  78  55  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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