Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 261729
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Band of low clouds swinging south into the KABI (Abilene) area
early this afternoon and they may see brief MVFR ceilings for a
few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail. Main aviation
concern will be the gusty northwest this afternoon. Gusts near 30
knots will be possible through about sunset, with wind speeds
diminishing during the evening. Winds should turn around to the
south overnight with gusty south winds developing by mid to late
Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours
at all sites. Surface high pressure will push into the area today
causing an increase in northwest winds to 15 to 20 knots, with
gusts as high as 30 knots possible. KABI is currently getting a
very light shower, but this activity will quickly move out over
the next hour or so. Northwest winds will diminish around 00Z,
becoming light and variable or southeasterly overnight. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expecting another breezy, but cooler day across the area today.
Currently, fast southwest flow on the southeast side of a potent
upper level trough centered in the northwest TX panhandle is
moving across our area. Embedded shortwave energy in this flow is
resulting in precipitation trying to develop across the northern
Concho Valley and Big Country. However, due to a very dry sub-
cloud layer, no precipitation has been recorded reaching the
ground, and likely only a few sprinkles and gusty winds will
result from this activity. At the surface, a southward-moving
boundary is moving through west central Texas, turning
southwesterly winds to the northwest, and briefly producing gusts
between 30 and 40 mph.

Surface high pressure will build into the area as the upper level
low moves east today. This surface ridging will maintain
northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts near 30 mph
from late morning into early afternoon, mainly south of a Sterling
City to Brownwood line, and bring in a shot of cooler air. Highs
today will range from as cool as the upper 60s north of I-20 to
the lower 80s along and south of the I-10 corridor.

Tonight, shortwave energy moving in quickly behind the TX
panhandle trough will result in a quick reset to lee troughing to
our northwest, and winds will turn back around to the south before
sunrise Thursday morning.

20

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

An active pattern is indicated Thursday into the weekend.

On Thursday, a broad upper trough will be over much of the northern
and central parts of the western two-thirds of the CONUS. With
surface cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains, gusty south to
southwest winds are expected across our area. After a cool start to
the day, a strong rebound in temperatures is expected with afternoon
highs forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

A weak cold front will move south into our northern counties late
Thursday night before stalling Friday morning, and then lifting
north as a warm front Friday afternoon to near the northern border
of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties.

A closed low is progged to develop over the central Rockies on
Friday, and then track south into New Mexico on Saturday. A dryline
will mix east into our far eastern and southeastern counties on
Friday afternoon. With a strengthening low-level thermal ridge
across our area south of the aforementioned cold front,
temperatures will be hot on Friday afternoon with highs expected
to be in the 90- 95 degree range south of the frontal boundary. A
few locations may have highs above 95 degrees. A few thunderstorms
will be possible by late Friday afternoon and early evening
across some of our eastern counties along the dryline. Strong
instability and favorable vertical shear will support a
conditional severe weather risk, especially for the far
northeastern part of our area which should be near the triple
point.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms should increase Friday
overnight and Saturday, but have some uncertainty with the specifics
on timing and placement. The upper low is progged to move from
northern New Mexico Saturday morning into northwestern Oklahoma by
early Sunday morning. A surface trough/dryline may move east across
our area on Saturday, followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday
afternoon and early Saturday night. With increasing large scale
ascent, showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday overnight
through Saturday and into Saturday night. Overall limited moisture
precludes our carrying more than chance PoPs at this time.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage, breezy and much cooler
conditions are expected for our area during the day Sunday, with
clearing skies. Forecast lows Sunday night are in the mid to upper
40s, with indications for good radiational cooling across much of
our area.

A rebound in temperatures is indicated again Monday-Tuesday of next
week, as south winds return by Monday morning and increase across
our area. Near zonal flow aloft is progged during that time over
much of Texas, with another upper trough progged to develop over the
central Rockies on Tuesday.

19

FIRE WEATHER...
We will see elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
once again today. However, these conditions will be confined to
areas mainly south of a Sterling City to San Saba line. Will again
address these conditions with a RFD for these areas that will be
in effect from late this morning through the evening hours. Near
critical conditions will again affect the area Thursday with
temperatures bouncing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s,
southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, and relative humidity values
dropping to 15 to 20 percent.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  49  90  64 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  77  51  93  67 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  82  48  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  71  45  88  65 /   5   0   0   0
Sweetwater  69  52  91  62 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       79  51  91  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



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