Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 041731
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period. The earlier high based showers have dissipated
and have left just some mid and high cloudiness across the area,
as well as an the regular afternoon cumulus cloud field. Light
south to southeast winds under 10 knots will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT THE ABILENE AIRPORT AND LESS LIKELY THE SAN
ANGELO AIRPORT. ANY SHOWERS THAT MIGHT FORM WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT
SEVERE. OTHERWISE VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXCEPTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT ALL AIRPORTS TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers west of the forecast area are weakening as they
advance slowly toward the east and are expected to dissipate
before reaching the forecast area this morning. Models are mixed
on whether showers will develop across the forecast area this
afternoon. The GFS is mostly dry while the high resolution short
term models are indicating some isolated showers are possible,
especially across Fisher, Nolan and Haskell Counties.

Radar indicates a weakening small vorticity center near Lamesa
associated with showers that have dissipated. It is moving toward
the northeast. This small feature will likely be the initiator of
showers if it does not dissipate before reaching northwest
portions of the forecast area. Currently, PoP forecasts are low
but reflect the slight chance for a few showers there.

Elsewhere, mostly dry weather is expected with highs today near
100 degrees and 10 knot winds from the south and southeast with a
few high clouds drifting across the area from the west.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)]

Hot and dry conditions will prevail for our area through the end
of this week and the first part of next week, with the upper high
remaining our dominant weather influence.

The center of the upper high will gradually shift east from the
southwestern states into Texas during the latter half of this
week, as a weak cutoff low moves onto the California coast. The
upper high will be centered over the Red River Valley during the
weekend and first part of next week, with some strengthening
indicated. For west central Texas, an uptick in temperatures is
expected as the 850mb thermal ridge intensifies. Highs will be
generally in the 100-105 degree range, with lows in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  77 101  77 /  20   5   0   0
San Angelo 101  77 103  76 /  10   5   0   0
Junction 100  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07


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