Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 040217

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
917 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

To extend PoPs this evening...


Light showers continue across parts of the Big Country/Heartland
this evening and are moving into the northern Concho Valley.
Although only a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall are
expected, PoPs were expanded slightly southward into parts of the
Concho Valley to account for the shower activity. Most of this
activity should dissipate or be east of the area by 1 AM.
Otherwise, no other changes are needed at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Also,
showers will move over the Abilene terminal for the next couple
hours, as a weak upper-level disturbance moves across Texas.
Otherwise, weather NIl, for the next 24 hours, at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

(Tonight and Wednesday)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the South Plains,
associated with a strong upper shortwave over Northwest Texas
and Oklahoma, were moving southeast into the Big Country this
afternoon. With a 30 degree dewpoint/temperature separation the
main impact will be strong, gusty winds. Mid and high cloudiness
associated with the storms will dissipate towards midnight, and
there will be good radiational cooling. Temperatures tonight are
expected to be in the lower 50s, with upper 40s in river valleys
in southern sections including the Llano, San Saba, and Pecan

Weak surface high pressure will build into the region Wednesday.
Winds will become north at 5 to 10 mph. However, temperatures
will be 5 to 7 degrees warmer than today, with full sun and little
cold advection. Highs in the lower 80s are expected.


(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Ridging aloft will prevail through the end of the work-week,
maintaining warm and dry conditions across the Southern Plains.
With the ridge axis remaining to the west of the area through
Thursday evening, dry northwesterly flow will continue across West
TX. Expect warm temperatures and generally light winds during this
time. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s with overnight low
temperatures in the 50s.

Southerly flow will resume Thursday, aiding in poleward moisture
transport heading into the weekend. The flow aloft will transition
more southwesterly by Friday, with pressure falls in the lee of
the Rockies inducing an increase in southerly winds. We`ll begin
to see an increase in high clouds from the west on Friday as an
upper-level jet approaches on the southern flank of a deepening
trough over the southwest CONUS. As this trough nears, subtle
impulses will likely eject eastward into the Plains. These
disturbances will begin to weaken the cap, steepen lapse rates,
and contribute to convective initiation over West TX. However,
the models are unable to resolve these features this far out so
timing them is rather futile at this point in time.

The dryline will begin to slosh back and forth over West TX this
weekend, providing a low-level focus for convective development.
On Saturday, the dryline and upper-level forcing look to be too
far west to support more than a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. For now, this only includes the western half of
the CWA on Saturday, but rain chances extend a bit farther east
during the overnight period. There is a greater opportunity for
showers and thunderstorms across the area on Sunday as the dryline
mixes east into West Central TX and a shortwave trough lifts
northeast into the Plains. The ECMWF is a bit farther west than
the GFS with the dryline Sunday afternoon, and that seems very
reasonable given the recent rainfall and the models` poor handling
of low-level moisture the past few weeks.

Another shortwave trough will traverse the region on Monday and
the dryline is progged to mix a bit farther east, with rain
chances favoring the eastern half of the CWA. We`re a bit hesitant
to move the dryline too far east on Monday, so PoPs were retained
across nearly the entire CWA, eventually shifting farther east
Monday night into Tuesday. There does appear to be a potential
for severe thunderstorms this weekend and early next week, with
the greatest threat being Sunday and Monday. Moisture return will
limit instability initially, but moisture quality will improve
late in the weekend as the upper trough approaches and the Gulf
really opens up. Little change is expected with regard to
temperatures over the forecast period. Expect high temperatures
to remain in the 80s into early next week with overnight lows
climbing into the 60s by the weekend.



Abilene  52  81  55  83 /  30   0   0   0
San Angelo  51  84  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
Junction  49  84  51  85 /   5   0   0   0


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