Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 171701
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1201 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The Hi Res models are indicating isolated to scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of West Central Texas this
afternoon into the early evening. Going with a VCTS at the
KABI/KSJT/KBBD terminals from 20Z-01Z. Otherwise, expect mainly
VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Isolated to scattered showers are affecting areas near the KABI,
KBBD, and KJCT sites early this morning. These showers will move
out over the next few hours, but additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening for our
eastern and southern sites. However, coverage is not expected to
be widespread enough to mention it in the TAFs at this time. So,
mainly VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours with
south/southeasterly winds of around 10 knots or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Rain chances will decrease over the next 24 hours. However, there
will still be at least a slight chance over mainly northern areas
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. We will have
very weak south/southwesterly flow aloft on the west side of an
encroaching upper level ridge, with a relative absence in upper
level energy. There will be lingering low level boundaries from
overnight convection that was in our area and to our east. These
boundaries, along with good low level moisture and a somewhat
unstable air mass could result in a few showers and thunderstorms,
mainly north of a Sterling City to San Saba line. Severe weather
is not expected with these storms, but they will be capable of
gusty winds, dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures
warming into the mid 90s, and lows tonight generally in the mid
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)

Upper level high pressure will build in this weekend and continue
through the first half of next week. Cannot rule out one or two
showers, but subsidence under the upper ridge will suppress most
convection. Rain chances could increase towards midweek next week,
however, as the upper ridge builds westward, bringing the the
region into northernly flow aloft. Warm temperatures otherwise
continue, with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  75  97  74 /  20  20   5  10
San Angelo  95  74  97  73 /  20  10  10   0
Junction  95  73  97  72 /  10  10  10   0
Brownwood  95  74  98  73 /  30  20   5  10
Sweetwater  94  74  96  73 /  20  20  10  10
Ozona       93  73  94  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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