Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 231715
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1215 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across the
area this afternoon, with several episodes of heavy convection possible
into the overnight hours. Carrying SHRA/TS at various times
through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording overnight.
Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through the period
but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible in heaviest
showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Currently seeing mostly VFR conditions across the terminals
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
across the area later today, with several episodes of heavy
convection possible into the overnight hours. Carrying SHRA/TS at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

.Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  84  63 /  80  50  10  40  40
San Angelo  65  86  65  86  63 /  80  30  10  40  40
Junction  66  84  68  81  65 /  80  30  20  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

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