Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 251738
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Most sites are now VFR early this afternoon, with KJCT likely to
become VFR within the next hour or so. There is a chance for
showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight, mainly for
sites south of I-20, and have kept the VCTS mentioned in the
previous set of TAFs for the evening hours. MVFR CIGs should make
their way back into the southern sites after 06Z tonight as well.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain southerly through
tonight with periodic gusts to around 20 knots this afternoon. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy low clouds continue across West Central Texas terminals,
with the best concentration along the I-10 corridor. Farther
north, high cloudiness has made it difficult for the MVFR cigs to
remain intact, but has also allowed some light fog to develop as
well. The fog and low clouds should lift this morning and leave
VFR conditions for much of the day. Isolated storms are possible
across the southern terminals this afternoon, but coverage should
increase overnight. A little early to pin down the exact timing,
so have used a VCTS at KSOA, KCT, KBBD (Sonora, Junction, and
Brady) which should see the best coverage after 06z tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Today will be very much like yesterday across West Central Texas.
Unstable air mass is in place, but strong enough convective
inhibition to prevent much in the way of convection, even with a
potent dryline in place. Models continue to bring the dryline a
little too far east each day, so suspect the dryline will make it
into the western Concho Valley and western Big Country this
afternoon, but not very much farther than that. Models have also been
consistently too warm with afternoon temperatures in the muggy air
mass east of the dryline, so will undercut forecast highs a few
degrees. TTU WRF and HRRR do suggest that a weak shortwave will
begin to approach late this afternoon and tonight, with showers and
a few storms developing southwest of the area. These storms may make
it as far north as the I-10 corridor by late this afternoon, with
showers and thunderstorms spreading northeast across much of the
remainder of West Central Texas tonight. SPC Day One outlook
includes about the southern half of the area in a slight risk
tonight, as these storms spreading north finally tap into unstable
air mass across the area. Would not be surprised to see a few
elevated hailers tonight across the area mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday into Tuesday)

Potential for severe weather exists Thursday into Friday morning.
Atmosphere will be very unstable with MUCAPES of 3000 to 4000
J/KG. Texas Tech WRF indicates a band of morning showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving through, then a line of afternoon
dryline thunderstorms develops in the Eastern Permian Basin/Trans
Pecos. This line of storms moves east across West Central Texas
Mid/late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Eastern sections
may see ongoing thunderstorms into Friday morning.

Large hail and damaging winds possible, along with the potential
for tornadoes Thursday and Thursday night. Localized flooding
also possible. EC/GFS/Texas Tech WRF models indicate the heaviest
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches Thursday night from the Concho Valley
east to Coleman, Brownwood and Cross Plains as storms train along
the 700 mean wind flow. SPC has a slight risk of severe storms
Thursday for West Central Texas.

The next shower and thunderstorm development period is Sunday
into Tuesday, as another upper trough over the Southwest U.S
approaches with several shortwaves ahead of it. A weak cold front
Wednesday may continue to enhance thunderstorm development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  73  87  66 /  10  20  40  60
San Angelo  89  73  90  67 /  10  30  50  70
Junction  85  73  86  69 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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