Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 021052
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
352 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.Synopsis...
Threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continues over the
mountains into Tuesday, then a more widespread chance Wednesday
into Friday. Cooling to near average by mid-week.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across interior NorCal early this morning as
most of the cloudiness associated with last evening`s showers and
thunderstorms has diminished. Temperatures are running a little
cooler across most of the region compared to 24 hours ago and
generally ranges from the 30s and 40s in the mountains to the 50s
and lower 60s elsewhere.

Large-scale pattern forecast to remain relatively unchanged today
and Tuesday, though large blocking ridge centered over the
northern Rockies is expected to slowly shift east with time. Weak
low beneath the ridge over central California will once again help
to pop some late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the
mountains, both today and Tuesday. Temperatures will remain above
average.

More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, along with
cooler temperatures, is expected Wednesday and Thursday as
upstream trough forms a closed low near the Bay Area which then
drifts slowly toward SoCal.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday thru Monday)...
Upper low progged over SoCal Friday. Cyclonic flow and wrap around
moisture will keep a threat of showers and thunderstorms...mainly
over the mountains. Low tracks into Arizona Saturday, and main
threat for deep moist convection looks to be over the Sierra
Nevada and Western Plumas mountains. Oper GFS/GEM show another
wave dropping in from the NW Sunday to keep a threat of showers
over the mountains and possibly Northern Sacramento valley and
surrounding foothills. EC is drier with upper ridging building
inland. Models point to dry Monday as heights increase over
Interior NorCal. Warming trend expected through the extended
forecast period with highs in the Central Valley climbing from the
lower to mid 70s Friday into the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday.

&&

.Aviation...
Vrbl wnds alf tda bcmg incrsg Sly tngt into Tue as deep upr trof
in EPAC apchs. VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal thru 00z Wed exc isold
MVFR/IFR conds poss ovr mtns/fthls in shwrs or tstms btwn 20z-04z.
Sfc wnds genly blo 15 kts nxt 24 hrs exc gsty nr tstms.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$



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