Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS66 KSTO 141050

350 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Hot weather will peak today followed by a slight cooling trend
into mid-week. A chance of Sierra crest thunderstorms south of
Lake Tahoe today, then thunderstorm chances spread north into the
northern mountains during mid-week.


Very mild temperatures across the region early this morning as
high clouds increase and the Delta Breeze has diminished. Current
readings range from the 50s in the cooler mountain valleys to the
mid 60s to upper 70s elsewhere, about 5-10 degrees warmer than 24
hours ago in most spots.

Hot weather will peak across the region today as a very warm
airmass associated with the ridge centered over the Great Basin
shifts westward. 850 mb temperatures around 28C-30C will be
overhead NorCal today and maximum temperatures in the Central
Valley are expected to range from 100 to 110. Enough moisture may
make it up into the Sierra to around Lake Tahoe for a few late
day thunderstorms.

Deeper mid and upper-level moisture (around 3 standard deviations
above normal) makes it northward into the region Tuesday into
Wednesday allowing the thunderstorm threat to shift northward into
the northern mountains and become more extensive over the northern
Sierra. The disturbance that triggered the extensive deep
convection over AZ on Sunday that continued overnight is forecast
to move off the central coast of CA today with a weaker portion
working its way northward into NorCal tonight. Another disturbance
is forecast to move up in SEly flow Tuesday and may help to
initiate deep convection over the mountains by late morning.
Neither of these look too strong at this time and probably won`t
be able to trigger deeper convection over the valley.

The increase in clouds along with a return of the Delta Breeze
will bring a moderation of temperatures beginning Tuesday.
Overnight low temperatures will also be mild given all the cloud
cover. Even though temps will "cool"...the increase in humidity
may make it "feel" more humid and uncomfortable.

Temperatures will continue to moderate later this week into the
weekend with the threat of mountain thunderstorms retreating to
the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe.


Mainly VFR conds the next 24 hours. Potential t-storms today over
Sierra. Southwest winds 15-25 kt continue near the Delta with
winds below 10 kts elsewhere. JClapp


.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.


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