Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 031702
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1002 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF NORCAL. CLOUD BUILD
UPS ARE GETTING GOING OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTH INTO
EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE FOCUSED IN THESE AS SHOW BY SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MORNING UPDATE WILL BE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORCAL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 50S
AND 60S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

CONDITIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S
ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE IS PRESENTLY APPROACHING 130W AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO NORCAL TONIGHT, THEN CLOSE-OFF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
UPSWING IN MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE CLOSED LOW THAT DROPPED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND ELONGATE ACROSS NEVADA AND EXTEND
BACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE WRAPAROUND EAST TO NORTHEAST UPPER
FLOW WILL STILL BRING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY LOOK TO BE IN PLAY. A SECONDARY LOW THEN
DEVELOPS OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT WILL KEEP
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN PLACE OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT.
TRAJECTORIES OF THESE TYPES TO CUTOFF LOWS ARE DIFFICULT, SO STAY
TUNED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HINGE ON RESULTING CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE, BUT WILL GENERALLY
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THAT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE UPPER LOW DECIDES TO DO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. 60%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY (MAINLY
KSAC/KMHR)THIS MORNING BETWEEN 13-16Z. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...UP TO 12 KTS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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