Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 080801
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...Breezy Today with a Chilly Week Ahead...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Clouds will begin to move in to the region by mid to late morning a
cold front approaches. Rain showers are possible this afternoon as
the cold front moves through. There will be a slight chance for rain
today west of a line from Albany to Tallahassee and a chance for
rain east of this line with POPs up to 40 percent. Winds will be
very gusty today. Frequent gusts around 25 mph are expected and
occasional gusts up to 35 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for coastal areas of Walton, Bay, Gulf and Franklin Counties
this afternoon. In these coastal areas sustained winds will likely
reach 26-mph criteria with gusts of 40 mph possible, especially
at the beaches. Highs today will be in the upper 50s for the
Alabama and northernmost Georgia counties. Highs will be in the
lower 60s in the Florida counties that will get more sunshine
before the clouds move in.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley will amplify as
it moves east and promises a chilly stretch of weather for the
eastern Gulf Coast. A cold front will push east of the area this
evening, but any light showers associated with it should move
southeast of the area early in the evening. Some parts of the area
north of a line from Crestview to Dothan to Albany could see a
brief light freeze by dawn. Since the required 2-hr durations are
questionable and we have seen many freezes already this winter, we
will hold off on any watch or warning product. Winds will remain
around 10 mph through the night with wind chill readings dropping
into the upper 20s in FL to the lower 20s north of the state line.
This does not quite meet wind advisory criteria. A widespread
freeze looks more likely for Tuesday night so look for future
watches or warnings for that period. We could even flirt with wind
chill advisory criteria (20 degrees or less) by daybreak across
our northern zones. Daytime temperatures will also be chilly with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s north and in the lower to mid
50s south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
A mean long wave trough will remain over the eastern U.S. for much
of this period, so we are not looking for any big warm ups.
Another widespread freeze is expected Wednesday night. The trough
will deamplify a bit and with surface high pressure moving east of
the area, we should stay above freezing Thursday night with
daytime highs on Friday close to normal in the 60s. A clipper
system will then bring another cold front through the area Friday
evening, but temperatures will only drop off slightly behind it
for the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] A low cloud deck around 5K feet will move in
to the region in the mid to late morning hours as a cold front
approaches. VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF cycle.
Rain showers are possible, especially at VLD. Westerly winds will
be gusty today with gusts up to 30 knots possible at times.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will quickly increase today ahead of a cold front and then
remain elevated behind the front into Tuesday. It still appears
that frequent gale-force gusts are likely with sustained gales
possible from late in the day today through the overnight. Gale
warnings are now in effect for the entire marine area. While gales
will no longer be expected past Tuesday evening, small craft
advisory conditions could persist into Wednesday night. Much lower
winds and seas are then expected on Thursday as high pressure
moves over the waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...
High dispersions will continue through Tuesday due to strong winds.
Dry air will remain in place for the next several days. On Monday
RH values will be in the 30s. Red Flag Warning criteria will not
be met.

&&

.Hydrology...
Many rivers are high or in flood stage at this time. Most area
rivers are currently steady or falling. No significant rainfall is
expected through the next week.

On the Choctawhatchee River, Caryville has crested and is slowly
falling. Near Bruce, the river is in moderate flood and is
expected to crest at 15.5 feet late tonight.

The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has crested and is falling
slowly, but will remain in flood stage all week.

A warning has been issued for the Ochlockonee River at Concord as
it continues to rise. It is forecast to crest at 26.0 feet by this
morning.

The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta has crested and is falling.
Further downstream the Withlacoochee is still rising.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   63  34  53  30  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  40  51  38  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        58  31  48  29  50 /  20   0   0   0   0
Albany        58  31  48  27  50 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      62  34  51  29  52 /  40  10   0   0   0
Cross City    64  37  55  31  56 /  30  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  40  54  38  55 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to 9 PM EST
     /8 PM  CST/ this evening FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf- South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday FOR
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EST Tuesday FOR
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT


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