Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 300736
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION TODAY WITH THE
EASTERLIES OF RECENT DAYS BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THIS AREA, THIS SHOULD FAVOR DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND STORMS
ARRIVING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z) IN SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. WE INCLUDED 30-50%
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A TIFTON TO PERRY LINE. FURTHER WEST, STORMS
WOULD BE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SEA BREEZE
AND REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY BE LOWER IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THAN WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY, SO POPS WERE KEPT IN THE 20-30% RANGE
IN THE PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES. AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES ON
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES ALLOWING DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM
THE GULF THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RETURN OF OUR
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEA BREEZE FRONTS. BY THURSDAY, THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS, KEEPING THE
CONVECTION FOCUSED MORE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH DAILY
CONVECTION, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR VIS REDUCTIONS AT VLD. OTHERWISE,
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE (POSSIBLY AFFECTING ECP), AND NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST (MOVING WEST AND POSSIBLY REACHING VLD LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON). BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IN STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AT DHN, ABY, AND TLH.

&&

.MARINE...

TYPICAL LIGHT SUMMERTIME WINDS THAT SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE DAY
AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WHEN MODERATE
FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL RETURN BRIEFLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS WITH
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NO SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SITES WILL REMAIN IN ACTION STAGE OR RISE TO IT, BUT NO
FLOODING IS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   92  68  90  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  30
PANAMA CITY   86  70  86  72  84 /  30   0  20  10  20
DOTHAN        89  68  90  69  87 /  10  10  30  30  30
ALBANY        91  69  89  69  89 /  10  20  40  30  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  91  69  91 /  40  20  40  30  30
CROSS CITY    91  69  89  69  89 /  50  20  30  20  30
APALACHICOLA  86  70  87  72  86 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



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