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FXUS62 KTAE 271343
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
943 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 8 am regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary front
from a weak frontal wave just off the SC coast, through Brunswick,
GA, through Cross City, FL, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed abnormally dry air west of
this front, with Precip Water values 50% below climo levels in the
FL Panhandle and southeast AL. However, they were only slightly
below climo in north FL and southeast GA, and we expect this
deeper moisture to gradually shift westward later today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect areas around
Valdosta and Cross City this afternoon. Although high
temperatureswill be a little above average (lower to mid 90s), the
low humidity will make it feel a little more comfortable.

&&

.Prev Discussion [650 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A large, elongated area of +PV stretches southwest from the
Northeast, through the Tennessee Valley, to the north-central Gulf
of Mexico. Associated with it is a highly amplified trough east of
the Mississippi river. Over the next couple of days, the +PV
anomaly will split, with the northern stream trough retreating
northward and a cutoff low meandering over the north-central Gulf
and adjacent land areas. At the surface, a disturbed (or wavy)
area of high pressure will prevail. South/southeasterly steering
flow will favor a couple of our wettest seabreeze regimes, and
will likely be enhanced, not following the conceptual model for
that regime due to the nearby upper low. PoPs will be higher than
normal area-wide, with the wetter of the two days being Saturday.
Tonight will likely be our last "cool" night, with morning lows on
Friday expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s (coolest to the
northwest). With higher than normal PoPs, expected afternoon highs
to reach their climatological averages, or the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The extended range forecast has a great deal of uncertainty as it
will depend on the eventual track of Erika. At this time, the
bulk of the numerical and statistical models favor a track through
the western Atlantic, along the eastern coast of Florida. While
this would favor much lower rain amounts locally, the current
track would still yield showers and thunderstorms in the
convergent northeasterly flow on the west side of Erika. The
extended forecast currently advertises above average PoPs with
temperatures near seasonal averages.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

VFR conditions are expected to persist at area terminals through
12Z Friday, except for the possible exception of VLD where we
have a PROB30 from 23-03Z for thunderstorms with visibility
reduced to 5sm along with variable winds with gusts to 25 knots
possible in and near thunderstorms. Otherwise winds are will be
somewhat variable and light. Low ceilings are not expected.


.Marine...

Light winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns will be limited across the Tri-state area as a
moist flow returns to the area on Friday. Until then, minimum
humidities this afternoon will generally be in the mid 30s with an
area of humidities ranging from 25 to 30 percent over north-central
Florida stretching into extreme southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia. High dispersion values are forecast Friday over the Florida
Panhandle. Minimum humidities are expected to rise above 50 percent
Friday and remain elevated through the weekend.  Winds will remain
light. We also expect increasing rain chances beginning in the east
today but spreading across the area Friday through the weekend.


.Hydrology...

Starting tomorrow we`ll be transitioning to a wetter pattern, with
rain expected through at least the weekend. On average, rainfall
amounts through the weekend will have little to no impacts on area
rivers. Depending on the eventual track of Erika, rainfall amounts
could drastically increase into next week. However, Erika`s
current track will have only a minimal impact w.r.t. to rainfall
locally.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  71  91  74  89 /  10  10  50  20  60
Panama City   87  73  88  75  86 /   0   0  30  20  60
Dothan        92  69  90  72  87 /   0   0  30  20  50
Albany        92  71  90  72  89 /  10  10  40  20  60
Valdosta      92  72  91  73  90 /  30  20  50  20  60
Cross City    92  72  90  73  89 /  50  30  60  20  50
Apalachicola  89  73  88  76  86 /   0  10  40  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...JACKSON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...JACKSON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN



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