Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 310751
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
351 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Surface high pressure over the northern Gulf and weak upper level
ridging will allow the sea breeze to be the main forcing mechanism
again today. Rain chances will range from 20-50% this afternoon with
the best chance for thunderstorms in the Florida panhandle. With
steep low level lapse rates, a few storms could be strong to severe
with gusty winds the main threat. Temperatures will warm to the low
90s inland and mid 80s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The upper ridge will strengthen across the southeast through the
short term while summer like conditions continue. The seabreeze
will continue to be the dominate feature each afternoon kicking
off shower and thunderstorm activity for the afternoon into the
evening time period. Based on this, the forecast is for 20-40
percent PoPs each day. Highs temperatures at TLH will be about 4-5
degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

While the summer like conditions and seabreeze will continue into
the weekend, a front will sink into the southeast late in the
weekend and help to enhance PoPs Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday
though, models differ with how they handle the front. GFS sinks
the front south of the CWA while the ECMWF lingers the front
across the southern portion of the CWA. The GFS would result in
drier conditions by Tuesday. Initially temperatures will reach
into the mid 90s across parts of the CWA, but moderate into the
mid 80s to lower 90s by Sunday as clouds and precip increase.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

Expect IFR visibility at ECP this morning, otherwise VFR will
prevail through the period. Winds may be gusty near thunderstorms
this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will persist through the weekend with a
possible enhancement to wind speeds in the afternoon associated
with the seabreeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Significant rainfall is not expected over the next few days and
thus there are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   94  71  95  70  95 /  30  20  30  10  20
Panama City   84  73  84  72  84 /  30  10  10   0  10
Dothan        93  70  93  69  93 /  30  20  20  20  20
Albany        94  71  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  30  30
Valdosta      93  69  93  70  93 /  40  20  40  20  30
Cross City    92  70  92  70  92 /  30  10  30  10  20
Apalachicola  86  72  86  70  86 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Weston
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Weston
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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