Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 160804
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
304 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A broad, low-amplitude upper level ridge will remain across the
GOMEX and southeast CONUS as a stacked low pressure system lifts
NEWD from the Central Plains into the Midwest. The associated
surface front will stay well to the west of our CWA. However, the
increasing southeasterly flow ahead of this system, will bring PWAT
values up to around 1" mainly across the Florida Panhandle and SE
Alabama. This moisture combined with temps well above seasonal
levels will bring a slight chance (20%) for a few showers across our
far western zones this afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 70s
to around 80 degrees.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper level ridging will be in place over the Gulf through
the short term with the flow becoming more zonal over the CWA
on Wednesday as a shortwave slides eastward from the Ohio Valley
to the mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure off
the mid-Atlantic coast will slide southward as a surface low
slides from the Mid West tonight and into the Atlantic on
Wednesday. The front associated with this low will weaken as it
pushes into the southeast and does not appear to push through the
CWA. Ahead of the front, a 10-20 percent chance of rain is
possible with some isentropic lift, with the better chances
across the western portion of the CWA. As the front approaches on
Wednesday, the main impact across the CWA will be an increase in
cloud coverage and a slight increase in the chance of showers.

High temperatures will remain more than 10 degrees above normal
with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures will
be about 15 degrees above normal with lows in the mid to upper
50s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

A more active pattern will return for the long term. Rain chances
will increase late in the week into the weekend as a front pushes
through Friday, followed by another system Sunday into Monday.
While there are some differences between the GFS and ECMWF in
terms of positioning of features, there is decent agreement in the
models showing multiple systems. There is decent instability over
the weekend with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg with marginal shear
values so have included thunderstorms for the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to run above normal with highs in the
70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...

Low level clouds and fog will move in from the east with a high
probability of LIFR or below conditions at VLD and lower probs at
ABY by daybreak. TAFs will show LIFR around dawn at VLD and ABY with
IFR at TLH. ECP and DHN will remain VFR. After 15Z, all sites will
return to VFR. Winds will remain light mainly from the southeast.

&&

.MARINE...

Southeast winds will generally be around 15 knots or less
today decreasing to around 10 knots or less for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Rain chances will increase across the marine area late
in the week into the weekend as a few disturbances impact the
area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rain chances will be limited initially this week, but increase
late in the week into the weekend. Although still further out and
thus amounts can change, rainfall amounts with the disturbances
late week through the weekend are expected to be around 1-2
inches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   79  54  76  55  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   76  59  72  61  72 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        76  56  78  59  75 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        76  54  78  59  75 /  10   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      78  54  78  56  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    79  53  77  53  76 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  76  58  71  61  72 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Fieux


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