Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 020119
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
919 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A cold front stretches from southern Illinois southwestward to the
Gulf coast of Texas. This front will continue its slow eastward
movement through the night, but will remain out of our forecast area
through the period. Well ahead of the front itself is a line of
storms from northeastern Georgia down to southeastern Louisiana,
which is dissipating with the loss of daytime heating and separation
from its initial forcing and upper level support. Further east,
the east coast seabreeze makes its way inland, but is expected to
also wind down over the next several hours due to a loss of
diurnal heating. Storms should be completely cleared by midnight.
Patchy fog will develop once again across the area in the early
morning hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [743 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

An upper-level long wave trough will develop across the eastern
CONUS. At the surface, a a cold front will approach our forecast
area from the northwest Monday afternoon and evening, and move
slowly southeastward across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The highest PoPs (30-40%) on Monday afternoon will be across south
GA and AL, as this area will be closer to stronger forcing and
deeper moisture. Rain is likely across most of our forecast area
on Tuesday as the front moves through and deep layer moisture
peaks. With moderate CAPE (1500 J/kg), high surface dewpoints
(65-70), and marginal 0-6km bulk shear values (30 KT), there
could be some loosely- organized multi-cell clusters, as well as isolated
pulse severe storms Monday afternoon and Tuesday; but so far none
the CAMs are forecasting surrogate severe parameters which "jump
out" as being too worrisome. It will remain hot and humid, though
highs will "only" be in the mid 80s Tuesday afternoon because of
the clouds and rain. Highs Monday will be near 90. Lows each day
will be in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

April weather will return despite the calendar progressing through
early May. An anomalously-deep, upper-level long wave trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. The
aforementioned surface cold front will exit southeast of our
forecast area on Wednesday, followed by somewhat cooler and much
drier air. The upper level height pattern over the CONUS will be
amplified through next weekend, with very slow progress of the
troughs and ridges. So even though deep-layer ridging (warming)
will begin next weekend, our forecast area will remain under the
subsidence side of the upper level ridge. Lows will be in the 50s,
even around 50 Thursday night. Highs will be in the mid to upper
70s Thursday and Friday, then mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

Isolated storms near DHN are slowly moving northeast and dissipating
as is convection off to the west. Expect mostly VFR conditions
through around 09Z, when fog and low clouds are expected to develop,
mostly near ECP, TLH, and DHN. Visibilities will improve shortly
after sunrise, but low clouds may linger into the late morning
hours. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible once
again, with the highest chances near ABY and VLD.


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Tuesday as a high pressure
system remains centered over the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold
front will move southeast across the marine area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, followed by increasing winds from the NW and higher seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected through the middle
of the week. Relative humidity values will drop below 30 percent
Thursday and Friday, then begin to increase again heading into the
weekend.


.HYDROLOGY...

For the first time in quite a while there were no rivers in "action
stage" across our forecast area. Storm total rainfall amounts
through Wednesday are around half an inch, though isolated amounts
up to 4 inches are possible. The expect lack of widespread heavy
rain means that the rivers will continue to subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  87  70  84  63 /  10  20  20  50  30
Panama City   69  81  72  78  65 /  10  10  20  50  20
Dothan        67  85  68  80  58 /  30  30  30  50  10
Albany        67  87  68  81  59 /  30  40  30  50  20
Valdosta      67  88  68  84  63 /  20  30  10  60  40
Cross City    67  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  10  30  30
Apalachicola  70  81  72  80  66 /  10  10  10  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fournier



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