Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 011535
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The approaching cold front is still well to the west, stretching
through northern Alabama and southern Mississippi. This front is
moving very slowly and will not be influencing the weather much
today. A few light showers have developed this morning, mainly in
the Gulf. A few showers this afternoon cannot be ruled out, however
POPs are low at 10 to 20 percent. Temperatures will range from the
upper 70s in north and west portions of the region, to around 80
for the Big Bend and south central Georgia.
.Prev Discussion [621 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Probabilities for lower visibility in fog are elevated tonight
across our forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front. This
will be due to a shallow layer of moisture below 1000 ft. We added
areas of fog to the forecast.
The front will then push through the area on Wednesday. The 00Z
operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF both show moderate amounts
of QPF despite a general lack of instability. We expect steadier
bands of rain associated with strong forcing along and just behind
the surface cold front. PoPs were increased based on good model
agreement on moderate QPF focused during the daytime on Wednesday.
Likely PoPs were included for all but the far southeast parts of
the area. High temperatures may actually occur in the morning
hours over much of the area, as the combination of the advancing
cold front, thick cloud cover, and rain may cause temperatures to
decrease in the afternoon hours. We followed an hourly temperature
trend closer to raw model guidance.
Models then usher rain out of the area quickly on Wednesday Night
setting up a dry and cooler day on Thursday.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
A large surface high will then settle into the eastern US, with
slightly cooler (and dry) weather expected to last through much of
the extended forecast period.
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...
On and off IFR/LIFR restrictions have plagued DHN, ECP, and VLD
this morning. Expect this trend to continue for the next couple of
hours, though LIFR is seeming less likely. Through today, VFR will
prevail under a scattered to broken low level cloud deck.
Overnight, fog and low ceilings are expected to be more
restrictive and widespread than the past few nights.
Fairly light southerly winds will continue through Wednesday in
advance of the cold front. Behind the front, winds will shift to a
northerly direction and increase by Thursday. SCEC-level winds are
likely beginning Thursday, with some advisory-level winds possible
at times (particularly offshore).
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
Rivers across the area were all below flood stage. Rain is likely
on Wednesday, with rainfall amounts around one half inch expected.
This will be unlikely to significantly affect river stages.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 79 63 74 54 64 / 10 10 70 30 10
Panama City 76 65 72 53 62 / 10 30 70 20 10
Dothan 77 60 67 47 59 / 10 20 70 20 0
Albany 78 62 70 48 61 / 20 20 70 30 0
Valdosta 81 62 75 54 63 / 10 10 60 40 10
Cross City 82 63 78 59 68 / 10 10 40 40 10
Apalachicola 76 65 73 55 64 / 10 10 60 30 10