Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231413
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1013 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Dangerous Heat Wave Will Continue Today...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The main focus this afternoon will once again be on both record
high temperatures and excessive heat indices. This morning`s water
vapor analysis depict a bit more dry air across a larger portion
of the Tri-State region. This will eventually translate to lower
dewpoints, at least across Georgia and Alabama, than yesterday.
Although this would tend to support a reduced threat for dangerous
heat index values over these areas, we started out much warmer
than yesterday morning and are still forecast to reach highs near
100 degrees. Essentially what this means is that across Georgia
and Alabama, expect heat indices to be their highest (btwn
108-110) in the late morning and early afternoon, gradually
decreasing thereafter. Elsewhere, dewpoints will remain relatively
high and be slower to mix out. All of north Florida should expect
heat indices above 108 for a long duration today. Nearer to the
coast and along the Panhandle, expect excessive heat index values
(btwn 110 and 114), due to the fact that mixing won`t be as
effective and the overall proximity to the Gulf.

Precipitable water values this morning were similar to yesterday,
and slightly below average. This is most likely due to the
instrument sampling along the edge of the slightly more moist
airmass west of the Apalachicola River, and the drier air to the
east. This will keep the overall coverage of storms down from
normal this afternoon, though still expect a scattering of storms
to be confined to mainly north Florida along the seabreeze. Some
gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms due to the
drier mid-level air in place.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF.

&&

.Prev Discussion [437 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The ridge center will move further west of the region by Sunday as
a large trough slides down the east coast. This will push a
backdoor front into the region by Sunday evening. Ahead of this
boundary, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop late in the
afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong given how unstable
the airmass is anticipated to be ahead of the boundary.
Temperatures will still be hot, but a couple degrees cooler than
the past few days. A heat advisory may be needed for a portion of
the region on Sunday afternoon, but with the increased rain
chances, confidence isn`t high enough to extend the heat advisory
into Sunday at this time.

By Monday, the models begin to differ on how much drier air comes
in from the northeast. Our region will be between the large ridge
across the Mid Mississippi River Valley a tropical disturbance
east of the Bahamas. Rain chances should be less on Monday
afternoon with some drier air working into the region.
Additionally, temperatures should cool a few more degrees with
highs generally in the mid 90s.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The aforementioned front will finish its passage through our
region by Monday evening bringing with it drier air and more
seasonable afternoon high temperatures. By mid to late week,
scattered sea breeze storms should be expected once again.


.Marine...
Light winds and seas will remain in place through the weekend.
Easterly winds will increase on Monday as the gradient tightens
between an area of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic States
and a tropical disturbance east of the Bahamas. A period of
cautionary conditions looks certain beginning Monday and
continuing through at least Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...With plenty of heat and high humidity, no Red
Flag conditions are expected anytime in the near future.


.Hydrology...
Widely scattered showers and storms can be expected through most
of the weekend. On Sunday, a front will pass through the region
from northeast to southwest bringing with it a good chance for
rain for most locations across the Tri-State region. However,
rainfall amounts will be insignificant and all area rivers will
remain below action stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee  101  77  98  75  94 /  30  10  40  40  20
Panama City   96  80  96  80  91 /  30  10  20  40  20
Dothan       101  76  99  75  93 /  20  10  40  40  10
Albany       101  77  97  74  92 /  10  10  50  40  10
Valdosta     101  74  97  73  92 /  20  10  50  40  10
Cross City    98  75  97  74  93 /  50  10  40  40  20
Apalachicola  95  80  94  81  91 /  40  10  30  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal
     Dixie-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-South Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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