Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 280031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
831 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017


Local radar imagery shows very isolated convection this evening,
mostly along our western border with MOB/BMX. The 00Z TAE
sounding showed much drier air in place, and a peak at the lower
and mid level WV channels of GOES-16 shows this low-mid level dry
air extends across the majority of our forecast area. Adjusted
PoPs down over southwest GA based on this pattern, but nudged up
PoPs in southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle. With northerly
flow, these isolated storms should move offshore over the next
few hours.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A surface low off the Georgia/Florida coast will continue to
influence rain chances this afternoon and evening. Showers and
thunderstorms with the low combined with the East coast sea breeze
will keep the highest rain chances in the eastern third of the CWA.
PoPs will be 20-30% overnight with activity decreasing after
midnight. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s away from the

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The weakness that has been situated over the area the past few
days will wash out as an upper low over the Great Lakes region
slides southeast. The surface low near the Ohio Valley on Friday
will slide to the mid-Atlantic on Saturday with a cold front
pushing across the southeast. Below normal PoPs are expected
Friday (20-30%) but the approaching front should help to enhance
convection on Saturday and thus will continue with above normal
PoPs for Saturday. A strong storm is possible on Saturday. The
front should move into/across the CWA Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. High temperatures will climb into the mid 90s
tomorrow, but will be limited to the upper 80s to low 90s on
Saturday with the additional cloud coverage and rain. Lows will be
in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The ECMWF hangs the front that moves through late in the short
term across the CWA into early next week while the 12z GFS pushes
it just south of the area. Given the time of year, most likely the
ECMWF solution is more realistic with moisture lingering across
the CWA, particularly the southern half instead of the front
clearing the area. This moisture will begin to lift northward
again mid to late next week with PoPs increasing again.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...

Isolated convection this evening is unlikely to affect any TAF
sites. In the early morning hours, there is a weak signal for MVFR
vsbys near VLD, but with no rainfall there yet today to increase
soil moisture, left out of this TAF package. Expect VFR conditions
through the period.


A cold front moving into the area Saturday into Saturday night will
help to increase winds and seas Friday and Saturday with exercise
caution winds possible on Saturday. Winds will subside to around
10 knots or less Sunday into next week. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day, although the chances are more limited
for tomorrow, Friday.


Aside from high dispersions on Friday afternoon, due to elevated
winds, there are no hazardous fire weather conditions forecast for
the next several days.


A cold front will help to enhance typical summertime convection on
Saturday with the front lingering across the southern part of the
area into next week. Overall rainfall amounts of 2 inches or less
are expected through Tuesday morning, however isolated higher
amounts are possible. Widespread flooding is not expected given
amounts and timeframe, however localized ponding of water is
possible with typical heavy rain in the summertime convection.



Tallahassee   73  94  75  90  74 /  30  30  10  50  50
Panama City   79  90  79  87  76 /  30  20  10  40  40
Dothan        75  94  74  88  70 /  30  20  20  60  20
Albany        74  95  76  87  71 /  20  20  20  60  20
Valdosta      72  93  75  90  72 /  30  40  10  60  50
Cross City    74  91  75  89  75 /  20  20  10  30  50
Apalachicola  76  91  79  90  77 /  30  20  10  30  50






NEAR TERM...Weston
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