Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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818
FXUS65 KVEF 221506
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
806 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY
GENERATING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER INYO AND FAR NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POP/WX/SKY AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE LIMITED ACTIVITY TODAY OVER
NORTHEAST CLARK...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LINCOLN TODAY AND POPS WERE
REDUCED IN THOSE AREAS. THEY ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY (PARTICULARLY THE MOJAVE PRESERVE AREA) WILL STAND
BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... AND THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP. RAISED POPS HERE. MY MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8-12KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUST INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 21-22Z...WITH GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS
SURROUNDING THE VALLEY...MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-03Z WITH OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD IMPACT ALL CORRIDORS AT SOME POINT. THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL ARE AROUND 15-20
PERCENT...AND TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STRONGER STORMS WILL
FEATURE STRONG UPDRAFTS AND CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE...PRODUCE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT...KDAG...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
259 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY TOWARD
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. CLOUDS HAVE
REALLY ENHANCED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. RADAR REFLECTIVITY RETURNS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS
ALREADY BREAKING OUT...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS. SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER AS IT CROSSES THE
MOJAVE DESERT ON ITS WAY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AGAIN
TODAY AND ALSO AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO MAINLY LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SEVERAL
DEGREES BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR A PLEASANT START TO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR LAS VEGAS ON SATURDAY IS
78 DEGREES WHICH MAY END UP BEING THE LAST OFFICIAL 70-ISH DEGREE
DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND COULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS ARE STILL FINE TUNING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL
LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING ESPECIALLY IF THE TRACK TAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
BACK TOWARD NORMAL BUT SHOULD FALL SHORT BY AROUND 8 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE TRYING TO
COUNTER SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO SET UP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON MEMORIAL DAY. BY TUESDAY
EVENING THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE TODAY AND SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...CZYZYK

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