Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 231539
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
839 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The heat wave will remain over the region through the
weekend and into early next week. The Excessive Heat Warning is in
effect through Monday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible over the southern Sierra each day while dry conditions
persist elsewhere.
&&

.UPDATE...The current forecast remains on track. Outside of a few
cumulus clouds over the high terrain this afternoon, mostly clear
skies will dominate with temperatures well above normal. No forecast
changes are needed this morning. -Wolcott-
&&

.SHORT TERM...today through Sunday.

There are a few subtle changes, but overall the main story is the
excessive heat holding through the weekend as an area of high
pressure continues to dominate over the southwest states. As for the
subtle changes, a weak frontal boundary could be seen pushing down
into southern Nevada this morning with northeast winds gusting 15-20
mph over southern Nye/Lincoln and now central Clark County. A
similar occurrence happened last weekend. It won`t make it any less
hot, but light to moderate northeast winds will persist at least
through the morning hours. Another thing worth noting is low level
moisture seeping up the Colorado River Valley with dewpoints in the
50s and lower 60s from Laughlin-Bullhead City down to Lake Havasu
City. This appears to be quite shallow and should mix out
considerably as the day heats up. Any noteworthy convection will be
confined to the southern Sierra with isolated thunderstorms possible
each afternoon through Sunday. Little change was made to
temperatures and afternoon highs for Las Vegas of 112-114 can be
expected.

.Long Term...Monday through Thursday.

By Monday, the ridge over the southwest should begin to shift
southwest and become suppressed a bit as a shortwave moves across
the northern Great Basin Monday night. Temperatures will see a 3-5
degrees drop by Tue and begin approaching normal temps later in the
week. Breezy to gusty southwest winds will accompany the trough
passage Monday afternoon and continue through the much of the
evening. Wind speeds are expected to be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up
to 35 mph. At this point, winds seem to be marginal for advisory
criteria for western San Bernardino Co and along the Spring Mtns,
but will monitor as we approach the work week. Both the ECMWF and
GFS keep the ridge suppressed through much of Thurs now, while
timing discrepancies still exist with the CMC. With more weight on
the GFS/ECMWF, southwest winds should continue to be breezy Tue
through Thu afternoons with speeds 10-20 mph. Dry and mostly clear
conditions through the work week.

Something to note..the latest ECE MOS guidance has LAS dropping 4
degrees Mon than previous runs...though better preforming model
temperature blends still indicate LAS should be around 110 degrees
Mon. Thus, supporting the Excessive Heat Warning to remain in effect
through Mon.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A northeast wind component will
persist through the morning hours and may continue into the
afternoon before a west component develops this evening. Hot
temperatures will continue through Monday with afternoon highs at or
above 110 degrees. A few clouds to the north otherwise clear with
VFR conditions through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Variable winds generally less than 20 knots can be
expected around the region today. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible over the southern Sierra this afternoon and evening and
only a few fair weather cumulus with bases above 12 Kft can be
expected across the rest of the region. Hot temperatures will
continue across the Mojave Desert areas through the weekend with
afternoon highs at or above 110 degrees.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions are expected for the next
several days. Southwest winds will increase Monday afternoon...with
extensive areas possibly gusting over 35 mph. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible over the southern Sierra each afternoon into the
weekend.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...Creek, stream and rivers along the eastern Sierra
slopes of Inyo County as well as the Owens Valley will be flowing
high and fast this week. Specifically, Rock Creek, Big Pine Creek
and Independence Creek have seen a significant rise in flows since
Saturday. Minor flooding could occur near creeks as well as a few
low water crossings on some roadways. Remember, never driver through
flooded roadways or around barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland
adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers could experience areas of
standing water.
&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record to record high temperatures will be possible each day
through Friday. The current record of consecutive days above 110
degrees in Las Vegas is 10 days (1961), and for 115 degrees, 4 days
(2005).

Las Vegas, NV Climate

           Forecast High Temps (F)       Daily Record Max Temps (F)
FRI (6/23):  111   113 (1959)
SAT (6/24):  111   113 (1961)
SUN (6/25):  112   115 (1970)

          Forecast low Temps (F)       Daily Record High Min Temps (F)
FRI (6/23):   89    86 (2011)
SAT (6/24):  88    85 (2016)
SUN (6/25):   88    86 (1974)
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation/Fire...Adair
Long Term...Kryston

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